Lithuanian Research Activities in
Energy Security
Eugenijus Ušpuras
Lithuanian Energy Institute
Content
1.
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4.
Energy security (research) institutions
Energy security research in Lithuania
Security of Energy Supply
Security of Energy Infrastructures
Energy security (research) institutions

Lithuanian Energy Institute (established in 1956)

Energy Security Research Centre – founded by
Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and Lithuanian
Energy Institute (LEI) in 2008

NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence,
established on 10 July 2012 (previously – Energy
Security Center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of the Republic of Lithuania)

Other institutions
Energy security research in Lithuania (1)

Ignalina NPP. Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI)
(Risk analysis, Accidents analysis);

Lithuanian Energy Strategy (1999; 2002; 2005:
2007);

Special Studies (e.g. Ignalina NPP
decommissioning impact to Lithuanian economic
security after 2010).
Energy security research in Lithuania (2)

State funded research project Development of
methodologies of Security and Reliability
Assessment of Energy Supply to Lithuania
(2006-2008; 2009-2011).

Research Council of Lithuania funded National
research programme Future Energy project
Development of Methodology for Energy
Security Analysis and Integrated Security Level
Assessment (2010 – 2011).
Energy security research in Lithuania (3)

Research Council of Lithuania funded National
research programme Future Energy project
Development of Methodology for Optimal
Integration of Future Technologies into Energy
Sector (2011-2012).

Research Council of Lithuania funded National
research programme Future Energy project
Investigation of Lithuanian energy security and
energy security level assessment (2012-2014).
Energy security research in Lithuania (4)

7FP project Security of Energy Considering Its
Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications
(SECURE) (2008-2010). The project developed
appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of
the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for
promoting the optimization of EU energy insecurity
mitigation strategies, including investment, demand
side management and dialogue with producing
countries.

SECURE partners from France, Italy, Denmark,
Lithuania (LEI), JRC, Germany, Switzerland,
Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Austria.
Energy security research in Lithuania (5)



Leonardo da Vinci programme project European
energy supply security management
coordinators UNDER way towards STANDard
indicators for continuous vocational education
and training (UNDERSTAND) (2006-2008).
UNDERSTAND is a pilot training project which is
intended for the emergency planners and
emergency operators of the European energy
supply, transmission system operators (TSOs) in
particular.
UNDERSTAND partners from Sweden, Finland,
Denmark, Czech Republic, Lithuania (LEI), UK,
Italy, Slovak Republic

Energy security research we could divide into
two branches:

Security of Energy Supply

Security of Energy Infrastructures
Security of Energy Supply
Assessment of Security of Energy
Supply
Different approaches are used for assessing
security of energy supply in Lithuanian Energy
Institute:
• economical modelling (MESSAGE model),
• disturbances impact to the energy system
assessment employing probabilistic and
deterministic models
• development of security indicators system for
the assessment of energy security level.
Lithuanian electricity system model
Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Russia
Sweden
(Nordpool)
Belarus,
Russia
(IPS/UPS)
Lithuanian
electricity
system
Lithuanian
district
heating
system
Kaliningrad
(IPS/UPS)
Poland, (ENTSO-E)
Diagram of renewable energy sources flow
Economical modelling
MESSAGE MODEL
• model is designed for planning energy sector in long
perspective, where could be predictable technological
process;
• optimization function is minimization of costs of energy
system during the considered period.
•Using model it is possible to assess and compare different
energy development strategies, alternatives of using different
energy resources or new energy technologies.
•Applying sensitivity analysis it is possible to investigate the
influence of particular indicators to functioning of energy
system.
Results:
• costs of energy production, then exits limitations of: primary
energy resources, environment, policy.
Scheme of Energy security
assessment methodology
Analysis of threats of energy system
Investigation of disturbances development
Technical,
economic and
sociopolitical
information
Disturbed energy system
modelling by
Economic models
Disturbed energy system
modelling by
Probabilistic models
Energy security indicators
Analysis of energy security level
Conclusions
Results of energy
security analysis
Recommendations
Probabilistic Energy Security Analysis
Threats
Barriers
Auxiliary systems
Natural
Diversification
Economical
Physical
protection
Sociopolitical
Safety systems
Terrorism
Long term
agreements
Energy
system
Consequences
mitigation
Emergency
plans
Generators,
power
distribution
Warning
and
system
power
supply
networks,
First-aid
storages,
suppliers,
Evacuation
consumers.
Deactivation
War conflicts
Diplomacy
Consequences
Human lifes
Damages
of
infrastructure
Economical
losses
Sociopolitical
disturbances
Assessment of Energy Security Level
Steps:
• Description of energy security indicators;
• Grouping of indicators to different blocks;
• Estimation of critical and precritical values of security
indicators;
• Assessment of weights for indicators and blocks of indicators;
• Performance of sensitivity analysis of indicators in critical
situations;
• Setting of indicators correlations matrix;
• Setting of functional systems and equations, which consists
parameters energy security of supply;
• Calculation of energy security level.
Creation of a Security of Supply Index
• Index allows for country specific
characteristics
• Allows for assessment of SoS impact
of new investments and policies
• Allows for analysis of scenarios
Export share of production
SECURE - NATURAL GAS STAKEHOLDER MEETING
Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com
Stefan Schaar Kruse
Senior Economist
Reserves / consumption
External Suppliers
National storages
Border crossings
Country risk to border
Replaceable share of gas
Production share of consumption
Security of
Supply
LNG terminals
Import pipelines
Offshore pipelines risk
Security of Supply in the EU – Risk and
Impact
High
SoS
Low impact –High SoS
Low
SoS
Low impact –Low SoS
High impact –High SoS
High impact –Low SoS
• Swiden • Finland
Low impact
High Impact

Security of energy supply is assessed by
analysing various energy system development
scenarios

For example, just revising the last energy
strategy more than 70 different development
scenarios were analysed

All scenarios energy production price with
various restrictions taking into account energy
security were taken into account
Analysed energy system development
scenarios
Analysed scenarios were grouped in the following
group:
 Group of scenarios with various restrictions to
the electricity import
 Flexible non-nuclear scenarios without nuclear
power plant
 Scenarios with new nuclear power plant
Energy security level of analysed
scenarios
0.9
New CHP
gas unit
0.85
SC1-import
SC2-CHP
SC3-NPP
SC4-CHP+NPP
Energy security coefficient
0.8
0.75
NordBalt
0.7
LNGT
LitPolLink1
0.65
LitPolLink2
Shutdown
of LPP 5th
and 6th units
New CHP
gas unit
New NPP
0.6
Shutdown
of LPP 7th
and 8th units
0.55
0.5
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022
Year
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

Economic analysis showed that scenarios with
nuclear energy and restricted electricity import
has slightly higher energy price

Assessing energy security as price increase and
system resistance to possible perturbations, we
can state that scenarios nuclear energy has
higher energy security level
Security of Energy Infrastructures

Two approaches are used:

Deterministic

Probabilistic

1.
2.
The solution of the infrastructure security
problem is consisting of two parts:
Identification of the critical elements of the
infrastructure, the development of security
plans.
The analysis and assessment of infrastructure
criticality.
Scheme of energy infrastructure
Scheme of energy infrastructure
(Lithuanian case)
Probabilistic Assessment of Critical
Infrastructures
Reliability and
Security Assessment
of Lithuanian Power
Transmission System.
Risk analysis of petrol
transportation by
trucks through
Lithuanian roads
Probabilistic Assessment of Kaunas
Hydropower System
Kaunas hydropower plant
(KHP)
KHP
dam
Flooding
zone
Kruonis hydro pump storage power
plant (KHSP)
Analysis of Aircraft Crash
Structural response,
Global level.
Structural response,
Semi-global level.
Structural response,
Local level.
Fire analysis.
Global Analysis of Aircraft Crash
Concluding remarks
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
In Lithuania we have developed and approved
methodology for energy security analysis
Energy security assessment is significant only
when it is compared with other countries or
regions. For that reason unified understanding of
energy security and usage of the common
methodology should be implemented
Methodologies developed in Lithuania could be a
good starting point at least in Baltic States to
introduce unified energy security assessment
concept. That would enable to assess separate
projects and entire situation.
Concluding remarks

Despite the fact that research in the field of
energy security is performed in Lithuania, further
collaboration and integration of efforts in this field
should be accomplished in Baltic Sea region and
entire Europe.

Thank you for your attention
 Eugenijus
Ušpuras
 uspuras@mail.lei.lt