1
Briefing of Permanent Missions in
New York on DRR in ASEAN
www.unisdr.org
www.unisdr.org
Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D.
Senior Regional Coordinator
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
United Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UNISDR)
www.unisdr.org
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Rationale
www.unisdr.org
3
4
Catastrophe losses are mostly borne by governments
and households in developing countries…
Financing of catastrophe losses in developing
countries
80000
70000
60000
50000
US$ Million
40000
30000
www.unisdr.org
20000
10000
0
19871989
average
1991
1993
1995
Emergency relief aid
1997
1999
Insured loss
2001
2003
Retained loss
5
…Partly because the private property insurance
market is under-developed
Non-life insurance penetration
In Indonesia
• Earthquake insurance
available for corporate and
commercial customers
(although low penetration)
and almost non-existent for
residential dwellings
• 2% of property policies have
EQ coverage
OECD
EU 27 countries
Malaysia
Thailand
ASEAN
Singapore
Vietnam
Indonesia
www.unisdr.org
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
% GDP
3.0%
4.0%
…Partly because risks are not well understood
6
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HFA Report 2007-2009
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www.unisdr.org
HFA Priority Area 1: Governance
Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and
local priority with strong institutional basis for implementation
8
HFA Priority Area 2: Risk identification
Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks
and enhance early warning
Cambodia
5
National and local risk
assessments are available
4
3
Viet Nam
Indonesia
2
1
www.unisdr.org
0
Singapore
Early warning systems are in
place for all major hazards, with
outreach to communities
Lao PDR
Philippines
Systems are in place to
monitor, archive and
disseminate data on key
hazards and vulnerabilities
Risk assessments take account
of regional risks with a view for
regional cooperation.
9
HFA Priority Area 3: Knowledge
Use knowledge , innovation and education to build a
culture of safety and resilience at all levels
Cambodia
5
Relevant disaster information
available and accessible at all
levels to all stakeholders
4
3
Viet Nam
Indonesia
School curricula , education
material and trainings include
DRR
2
1
www.unisdr.org
0
Singapore
Research methods and tools for
multi-risk assessments and
CBA developed
Lao PDR
Philippines
Countrywide public awareness
strategy exists towards a
culture of disaster resilience
10
HFA Priority Area 4: Vulnerability Reduction
Reducing the underlying risk factors
Cambodia
DRR integrated into environment related
policies and plans, land use, natural
resource management and CCA
5
4
3
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Social development policies and plans
implemented to reduce vulnerability
2
Economic and productive sectoral
policies and plans reduce vulnerability of
economic activities
1
0
Planning and management of human
settlements incorporate DRR and
building codes
www.unisdr.org
Singapore
Lao PDR
Philippines
DRR measures integrated into post
disaster recovery and rehabilitation
processes
Procedures in place to assess disaster
risk impacts of major development
projects, infrastructure
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HFA Priority Area 5
Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response
Cambodia
Strong policy, technical and
institutional capacities and
mechanisms for DRM are in
place
5
4
3
Viet Nam
Indonesia
2
1
Disaster preparedness and
contingency plans in place at all
levels, and regular training drills
are held to test disaster
response programmes
0
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Financial reserves and
contingency mechanisms in
place to support response and
recovery
Singapore
Lao PDR
Procedures in place to exchange
information during disasters and
to undertake post-event reviews
Philippines
12
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Background and Method
What is risk?
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Risk can be defined by a probability distribution (empirical data)
Example: What is the risk of more than 20 deaths per million? 40%
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Country Risk Profiles: Criteria
www.unisdr.org
• Assessment conducted - hazard-specific
and country-level perspectives
• Reported disaster data for various hazards
(EM-DAT) - used for risk assessment
• Physical and social settings of each country provided in brief
• EM-DAT criteria for recording a disaster
event
–
–
–
–
10 or more people reported killed
100 people reported affected
Declaration of a state emergency
Call for international assistance
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Comparing Disaster Loss Databases
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Country Profile
Philippines as an Example
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www.unisdr.org
Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends
PHL experience more
storms than other hazards
and they cause the most
number of deaths
The number of disaster
events is increasing but the
total number of deaths are
decreasing
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Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends
All hazards affect a large
number of population
The number of affected
population is slightly
increasing
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Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends
Floods and storms cause
the most economic
damage, followed by forest
fires
Economic damage is
increasing rapidly (18 times
more since 1970)
www.unisdr.org
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The 20-year return period (an event with 5 per cent
probability of exceedance) loss for all natural hazards
is $1.208 billion (0.37 per cent of GDP PPP), while
the 200-year return period (an event with 0.5 per
cent probability of exceedance, generally corresponds
to a catastrophic event) loss is $2.14 billion (0.66 per
cent of GDP PPP).
21
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Key Study Findings
Key study findings -
www.unisdr.org
Storm
(typhoon/
cyclones)
Drought
Flood
Landslide
Hazards
Earthquake
Country
Tsunami
•
Forest Fire
•
ASEAN - history of devastating disasters with huge socio-economic losses
Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including:
– Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts,
forest-fires
Cyclonic storm- most dominant disaster, followed by Eqs, tsunamis, floods,
epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires
During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths
Volcano
•
•
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Brunei
X
X
X
X
X
X
Cambodia
X
XXX
X
XX
X
X
Indonesia
XXX
XXX
XXX
XX
XX
XXX
XX
Lao PDR
X
XXX
XX
XX
XX
X
X
Malaysia
X
XXX
XX
X
X
XX
X
Myanmar
XX
XXX
XX
XX
XXX
X
X
Philippines
XXX
XXX
XXX
XX
XXX
X
X
Singapore
X
XX
Thailand
X
XXX
XX
XX
XX
X
X
Vietnam
X
XXX
XX
XX
XXX
X
X
ASEAN
XX
XXX
XX
XX
XXX
XX
XX
XX
XXX
X
Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN
XX
Key study findings…(Cont.)
•
•
Reported disasters: 36% - floods, 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% earthquakes, 7% - Landslides
Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk
patterns:
Country
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Myanmar
www.unisdr.org
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Risk Patterns
Floods represent the dominant risk followed by drought
Forest (wild) fires, earthquakes and tsunamis represent the
dominant risk followed by floods, volcanoes, droughts, and;
landslides
Cyclonic storms, floods and drought are the dominant risks
Flood and forest fires are the dominant risk
Cyclonic storms are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, floods
and forest-fires
Philippines
Typhoons (cyclonic storms) are the dominant risk followed by
floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, and droughts
Thailand
Floods are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, and storms
Vietnam
Storms are the dominant risk followed by floods, and droughts
Brunei and
Singapore
No disaster data is available
Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV)
•
•
•
Relative SV ranking- estimated based on Av. number of people
killed/year/million
Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5
times that of Indonesia (the second highest)
SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia
Country
www.unisdr.org
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Brunei
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
ASEAN
Population
(Millions)
0.38
14.49
240.27
6.83
25.71
48.137
97.97
4.65
65.99
88.57
593.05
Total Killed
(1970-2009)
Combined Disaster Risk from
Natural hazards
Killed per
year
(Killed per year)
per million
2,063
195,824
1,155
1,300
139,317
46,761
52
4,896
29
33
3,483
1,169
3.56
20.38
4.22
1.26
72.35
11.93
12,215
16,292
414,927
305
407
10,373
4.63
4.60
17.49
Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN
Key Findings – Economic Vulnerability (EV)
•
•
•
Economic vulnerability (EV): measured in terms of likelihood of the economic
losses resulting from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking)
EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an
event with a 200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country
GDP
Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia,
Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia
Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried
out for Brunei and Singapore
www.unisdr.org
•
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Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent
26
www.unisdr.org
Status of DRR Initiatives in ASEAN
Member
State
HFA Report
Brunei
2009-2011
draft
Cambodia
SNAP
DRR Law
DRR-CCA link
Safe Schools and
Hospitals
Campaign
Under development
Under
development
None
None
2 schools
1 hospital
3 TOTAL
SNAP 2008-2013
under
development
under
development
Under
development
18 hospitals
18 TOTAL
PLANAS PRB
2007
None yet
13,849 schools
154 hospitals
14,003 TOTAL
Indonesia
2009-2011
draft
NAP 2006-2009
Lao PDR
2009-2011
draft
SNAP 2003-2020
Myanmar
2009-2011
draft
MAP 2009-2015
Philippines
2009-2011
draft
SNAP 2009-2019
2009-2011
draft
SNAP 2010-2019
2009-2011
draft
NAP 2009-2020
Resilient Cities
Campaign
27
2
1 school
1 hospital
2 TOTAL
under
development
Malaysia
www.unisdr.org
NP
11,174 schools
3,840 hospitals
15,014 TOTAL
3
1 school
1 TOTAL
NP
2010
Ongoing
64,426 schools
2,304 hospitals
66,730 total
74
2008
through UNPAF
2012-2016
116 schools
4 hospitals
120 TOTAL
9
under
development
Ongoing
1 school
3 hospitals
4 TOTAL
5
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Under
development
28
Resilient City Campaign Sign Ups in ASEAN
TOTAL
Indonesia
2
Banda Aceh, Makassar
Malaysia
3
Kuala Lumpur, Melaka, Putrajaya
Thailand
9
Bangkok; Huysatyai Community, Prachuap Khiri Kha; Muang
Chiang Rai Municipality; Muang District, Udonthani; Muang
Had Yai Municipality, Songkhla; Muang Samutprakarn,
Samutprakarn; Patong; TAO Mae Poon, Uttaradit; TAO Toong
Yang, Uttaradit
Vietnam
5
Ho Chi Minh, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Can Tho and Da Nang
ASEAN
TOTAL
93
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COUNTRY
PROVINCE CITY/MUNICIPALITY
Philipp
ines
74
Abra
Albay
29
Bukidnon
Cagayan
Camarines Norte
Cebu
Alcantara Municipality, Alcoy Municipality, Alegria Municipality, Aloguinsan Municipality, Asturias Municipality, Badian
Municipality, Balamban Municipality, Barili Municipality, Bayawan City, Bogo Municipality, Boljoon Municipality, Carmen
Municipality, Catmon Municipality, Compostela Municipality, Consolacion Municipality, Cordova Municipality, Dalaguete
Municipality, Dumanjug Municipality, Ginatilan Municipality, Liloan Municipality, Madridejos Municipality, Malabuyoc
Municipality, Medellin Municipality, Minglanilla Municipality, Moalboal Municipality, Oslob Municipality, Pilar Municipality,
Pinamungahan Municipality, Poro Municipality, Ronda Municipality, Samboan Municipality, San Fernando Municipality,
San Francisco Municipality, Santa Fe Municipality, Sogod Municipality, Tabuelan Municipality, Talisay City, Toledo
Municipality, Tuburan Municipality, Tudela Municipality
Cotabato
Iloilo*
Dumangas Municipality
Ilocos Sur
Kalinga
Maguindanao
Metro Manila
Makati City, Malabon City, Manila City, Marikina City, Pasay City, Pasig City, Quezon City
Mountain
Northern Samar
Nueva Viscaya
Occidental Mindoro
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Oriental Mindoro
Palawan
Pangasinan*
Dagupan City
Rizal
Antipolo City, San Mateo
South Cotabato
Saint Bernard Municipality
Southern Leyte
Zambales
Zamboanga Del
Norte
30
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ASEAN-UN Partnership on DRM
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3rd ASEAN-UN Summit October 2010, Hanoi, Vietnam
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32
www.unisdr.org
ASEAN Summit Outcome
• Leaders welcomed the adoption of the
Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN
Collaboration on Disaster Management
and agreed to prepare and implement
the “ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of
Action on Disaster Management 20112015”
• Possible consideration at ASEAN
Summit in Jakarta, May 2011
33
www.unisdr.org
ASEAN-UN Summit Outcome
• Adopted the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN
Collaboration on Disaster Management
• Agreed to prepare and implement the
“ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on
Disaster Management 2011-2015”
• First draft to be made by ASEAN Committee
on Disaster Management then sent to UN for
review
• Possible consideration at ASEAN Summit in
Jakarta, May 2011
34
www.unisdr.org
ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on
Disaster Management 2011-2015
To cover
• Risk and vulnerability assessment
• Preparedness
• Early warning and monitoring
• Prevention and mitigation
• Response and recovery
• Aspects of reconstruction and
development
35
www.unisdr.org
Ways Forward
36
AADMER Priorities
www.unisdr.org
• Implementing National Action Plans on
Disaster Risk Reduction and
Strengthening Legal and Institutional
Frameworks
• Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in
Education and Health Sectors
• Urban Disaster Risk Reduction
• Public Education, Awareness and
Advocacy
37
www.unisdr.org
Further the implementation of AADMER in
climate change context
• Finish HFA reviews for 2009-2011 and upload
the reports before the Global platform in May
• With 8 of 10 countries having developed
Strategic National Action Plans (SNAP), how to
convert SNAPs into DRR investment plans
• How to participate in the resilient cities and the
safe schools and hospitals campaign, conduct
national launches and follow-up actions and
promote peer learning through existing ASEAN
exchange activities and meetings
38
www.unisdr.org
Further the implementation of AADMER in
climate change context
• Development of an ASEAN SAFE SCHOOLS
PROGRAMME with the possible leadership of
Indonesia and Brunei
• Continue strengthening data collection and
sharing for disaster risk assessments to serve
planning and decision-making.
• The development of an ASEAN DRR-CCA
programme, promoting linkages between DRR
and CCA programmes within ASEAN. An
immediate area of such as programme could be
disaster risk assessment in the context of climate
change projections.
39
Strengthen ASEAN-UN collaboration in
Disaster Risk Management
•
•
www.unisdr.org
•
Collaboration between ASEAN and UNISDR in
the follow-up of the ASEAN-UN Summit Joint
Declaration in Hanoi last year.
What are your suggestions to prepare the
ASEAN-United Nations Strategic Plan of
Cooperation on Disaster Management (20112015) and its implementation
How to sustain tripartite partnership between
ASEAN-UNISDR and Development Partners to
support the implementation of the ASEAN-UN
Strategic Plan of Cooperation on Disaster
Management.
40
Global Platform
•
•
www.unisdr.org
•
With President of Indonesia’s leadership as
Chair of ASEAN, encourage participation of
ASEAN members states in the GP and
highlight their respective achievements
Present the ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan on
DRM 2011-2015 as an example to the world
Present and discuss AADMER as the first
legally binding instrument on DRM for future
of HFA
41
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Thank you
UNISDR Secretariat Asia Pacific
UNESCAP Building - 8th Floor, Section A
Rajdamnern Nok Avenue - 10400 Bangkok - Thailand
Phone:+66-2-288-2750 Fax:+66-2-288-1050
isdr-bkk@un.org