Services of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Incorporating Sea Level Rise into
Capital Planning
Overview of Draft Guidance
City and County of San Francisco
Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resiliency Group (CHARG)
July 24, 2014
David Behar
Climate Program Director, SFPUC
Chair, CCSF Sea Level Rise Committee
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Draft Guidance: City and County of SF
GUIDANCE FOR INCORPORATING SEA LEVEL RISE INTO
CAPITAL PLANNING IN SAN FRANCISCO:
ASSESSING VULNERABILITY, RISK, AND ADAPTATION
(DRAFT)
Prepared by the Sea Level Rise Committee of SF Adapt
for the San Francisco Capital Planning Committee1
INTRODUCTION AND GOALS OF THIS GUIDANCE
Seas are rising globally due to climate change and will continue to rise at an accelerating rate for the
remainder of the 21st century. As a consequence of rising sea level, San Francisco will experience more
frequent and severe coastal flooding than in the past. Areas that currently experience infrequent flooding
will be inundated more often and more areas along our shorelines will be exposed to periodic flooding than
in the past or today. Sea level rise therefore poses a pervasive and increasing threat along San Francisco’s
shorelines. As new infrastructure projects are planned along the
This document should be
shoreline, or existing assets are modified or improved, flooding due
to rising sea levels – in combination with storm surge and wave run
used by CCSF departments
up – must be evaluated.
to guide the evaluation of
This Guidance presents a framework for considering sea level rise
within the capital planning process for the City and County of San
Francisco (CCSF). The Guidance also outlines some key issues related
to sea level rise adaptation planning; however, specific adaptation
strategies and approaches are not provided. The range of available
potential adaptation strategies is ever increasing, and selecting the
appropriate adaptation measures requires site and project specific
information that will best emerge at a departmental level, informed
by this Guidance, and coordinated through the CCSF capital planning
processes.
This Guidance provides direction from the Capital Planning
Committee (CPC) to all departments on how to incorporate sea level
rise into new construction, capital improvement, and maintenance
projects. The Guidance identifies and describes four key steps for
assessing and adapting to the effects of sea level rise in capital planning:
1.
2.
3.
4.
projects considered for
funding through the CCSF
capital planning process.
As with seismic and other
natural hazards, an
assessment of sea level
rise vulnerabilities and a
plan for addressing those
vulnerabilities should be
completed before a
project is considered for
funding.
Sea Level Rise Science Review: What does the science tell us today?
Vulnerability Assessment: Which assets are vulnerable to sea level rise?
Risk Assessment: Which vulnerable assets are at greatest risk to sea level rise?
Adaptation Planning: For those assets at risk, what can we do to increase their resilience to sea level
rise?
2
SLR Depictions:
BCDC: 2 meters
(2007)
SFO: 3 feet
Port Study: 15 and 55
inches (URS, 2011)
NOAA Coastal Viewer
(1-6 ft, 5 ft pictured)
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April 10, 2014 issue of The Urbanist (SPUR)
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The Wild Wild West …
Current SLR Estimates: CCSF Depts, Projects
2050
SFMTA
SFO
PUC (SSIP)
TI/YBI
Port (URS)
Ocean Beach
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16
11-24
16
10-17
14
2080
36
2100
60
55
36-66
55
31-69
55
SLR in inches
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CCSF Sea Level Rise Guidance
• Focus set by Mayor’s Office:
• Draft guidance for incorporating sea level rise
into capital planning for the CCSF
• Bring draft guidance to Capital Planning Committee for
consideration
• Enable CPC and departments to better understand and
prioritize projects with reference to sea level rise
• Coordinate and encourage collaboration among all CCSF
departments
• Maintain responsibility for assessment and adaptation
within departments, with review and coordination by
entity TBD.
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Sea Level Rise Committee
Members
• David Behar, PUC (Chair)
• Lauren Eisele, Port
• Rosalyn Yu, SFO
• Frank Filice, DPW
• Craig Raphael, MTA
• AnMarie Rodgers, Planning
• Chris Kern, Planning
• Tania Shayner, Planning
• Nohemy Revilla, PUC/SSIP Liaison
• Anna Roche, PUC/Wastewater
• Brian Strong, Capital Planning
• Kris May, AECOM/SSIP
• Dilip Trivedi, Moffat & Nichol
Meetings
• Began September 27 and approx
every two weeks since.
Activities
• Benchmarking review of other
jurisdictions: local, state and national
• Survey of CCSF activities with SLR
nexus (many found)
• In-depth review of the science
• Survey of regulatory context
• One half-day workshop
• Writing Draft Guidance
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A Range of Ranges:
“Confusion Meets
Catastrophication”
Sea- Level
Rise –
2100
RANGES
210S
39
10
Science and Regulatory Landscape – a sampling
80
Sea Level Rise Projections for Year 2100 (inches)
70
36 +/- 10
66
66
66
66
60
39
40
36
30
20
17
11
10
Upper Bound Not Provided
50
36
17
17
17
0
National Research Council Intergovernmental Panel California Ocean Protection
California Coastal
(2012)
on Climate Change (IPCC, Council (State Guidance, Commission (Draft, 2013)
2013)
2013)
2100 lower bound
2100 most likely
City and County of San
Francisco (draft 2014)
2100 upper bound
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CCSF Draft Guidance: Flexible;
Considers Both Likely and Extreme Scenarios;
Reflects Best Available Science
80
Sea Level Rise Projections for Year 2100 (inches)
70
66
66
66
66
36 +/- 10
60
39
40
36
30
20
17
11
10
Upper Bound Not Provided
50
36
17
17
17
0
National Research Council Intergovernmental Panel California Ocean Protection
California Coastal
(2012)
on Climate Change (IPCC, Council (State Guidance, Commission (Draft, 2013)
2013)
2013)
2100 lower bound
2100 most likely
City and County of San
Francisco (draft 2014)
2100 upper bound
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CCSF Draft Guidance: SLR Figures
Sea Level Rise Scenarios – 21st century (inches)1
1
from National Research Council 2012
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Sea Level Rise and Extreme Tide Matrix
Source: SFPUC, Sewer System Improvement Program (AECOM)
Source: Sewer System Improvement
Program, Draft Inundation Maps
36” SLR
2100 Most Likely SLR + Events*
36” SLR + King Tide (48” total)
Assumes no adaptation
measures implemented
36” SLR + 100 year flood (77” total)
SLR Guidance: Steps in the Process
• 1. SLR Science Review
• 2. Vulnerability Assessment
• 3. Risk Assessment
• 4. Adaptation Planning
• . . . Permitting and Regulatory Considerations
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)
2. Vulnerability Assessment:
Which assets are vulnerable to sea level
rise?
A.
Exposure
B. Sensitivity
C. Resilience
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)
3. Risk Assessment:
Which vulnerable assets are at greatest
risk (prioritization opportunity)?
A.
Likelihood
B. Consequence
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)
4. Adaptation Planning:
For those assets at risk, what will we do to
increase their resilience to sea level rise?
Building
on previous steps to create
resilience
Adaptive capacity, adaptive management
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Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont)
5. Permitting and Regulatory
Considerations
Coastal
Commission
BCDC
CCSF
General Plan
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“Adaptive Capacity”
Two definitions in literature we’ve reviewed:
1) Inherent resilience: asset will be flooded but not be
harmed, or flooding will not be a problem.
Examples:
a) a park floods, but it’s not harmed;
b) A road floods, but another road is available for
use
2) Adaptive management: asset can be made resilient
to shorter term SLR, and planning/footprint can allow
future resilience measures when more is known.
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“ADAPTATION”
Raise Embankments
Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13”
AIA
“ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT”
Raise Embankments…Again!
Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13”
AIA
Treasure Island - Sea Level Rise Approach
Elevated Development Area
Wide Setback Areas to Allow Future
Adjustment for Sea Level Rise
Adaptive Strategies at
Perimeter
Establish Project Generated Funding Mechansim
Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13”
AIA
Thank you!
David Behar
Climate Program Director
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
525 Golden Gate Avenue, 10th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94102
415-554-3221 dbehar@sfwater.org
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