
Integration with other models
Evaluate simultaneous (and inter-related) policy
changes
 Linkage to I/O models


Motivating the analysis




Data requirements


Key question and client needs
Political sensitivity
Important innovations
Time consuming and difficult
Examples



Yolo Bypass
Water Markets
Other recent applications

Policy application
› Client: Yolo County and now Reclamation
› Evaluate economic impacts of changes in
the frequency and duration of bypass
inundation

Data requirements
› What is grown in the bypass, and where?
› Crop budgets
› Flood inundation footprint

Key considerations
› Spatial scale
› Grower planting decisions

Model framework
› Bypass Production Model
 Regional agricultural economic model
› HEC-RAS
 Other models
› DayCent
 Crop growth model
› IMPLAN
 Multiplier effects – jobs, taxes, value added
Data
DAYCENT Model
BPM
IMPLAN
Results
Value Added Losses with 3,000 cfs (in thousands)
4,500
4,000
3,500
Direct
Indirect+Induced
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CM2
February 15
March 24
April 10
April 30
May 15
Value Added Losses with 6,000 cfs (in thousands)
10,000
9,000
8,000
Direct
Indirect+Induced
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
CM2
February 15
March 24
April 10
April 30
May 15

Key results
› Linkage: Flood – Crop Growth – Economics
› Coordination with bypass landowners
› Comprehensive data collection

Engage stakeholders for project
approval

Policy application
› Use the SWAP and CALVIN models to evaluate
South-of-Delta drought water markets
› Using 2009 drought as an example

Data requirements
› Standard SWAP data requirements
› Linkage to CALVIN
› Transfer capacities and constraints

Key considerations
› Evaluate the economic and hydrologic gradient
of water transfers
› Water in California varies greatly by space and
time

Model framework
› SWAP
 Agricultural economics
› CALVIN
 Transfer capacities and system linkage
Calibrate against standard SWAP data
 Policy evaluation

› 2009 drought
› Groundwater replacement
› Local supplies
Import Regions
Export Regions
(V11)
Stanislaus
River
(V12)
Turlock
(V13)
Merced
(V14B)
SW Kings
County
(V15A)
Tulare
(V17)
Kings River
(V21A)
Kern
Total Imports (AF)
(V10)
SJR Exchg Contractors
17,587
53,186
22,109
0
0
0
0
92,882
(V14A)
Westlands
0
0
0
13,665
70,000
0
0
83,665
(V15B)
Castaic Lake Area
0
0
0
0
16,270
0
0
16,270
(V19A)
Kern
0
0
0
0
0
0
68,121
68,121
(V20)
Kern
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(V21B)
Kern
0
0
0
0
0
0
15,747
15,747
(V21C)
Kern
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,513
6,513
Total Exports
17,587
53,186
22,109
13,665
86,270
0
90,381
283,197


No market adjustment
›
Revenue loss $512 million
›
›
Water traded 283 K Ac ft
Net revenue gain $109.5 million
Local market effects

Key results
› New market links require new market
institutions
› Important to let economic gradient inform
water transfers

Linkage between SWAP and CALVIN

Santa Clara Valley Water District
› Economic impacts of changes in the
agricultural groundwater charge

Solano County
› Economic impacts of BDCP Conservation
Measure 4
 Solano County and Cache Slough ROA

Diageo Wine Supply and Demand
› Model of wine supply chain management
and response to market shocks

Salinas Valley Model
› Genes to Growers USDA project
› Integrate agronomic information into Salinas
Valley model to evaluate changes in
nitrogen and water use efficiency

SWAP – Groundwater Dynamics
› Project under way to link SWAP and C2VSim

CVP - Integrated Resource Plan
› SWAP model linkage to:
 Water, climate, costs, demands, and urban
growth

North of the Delta Offstream Storage
Investigation
› SWAP model update and application to federal
feasibility analysis
› National Economic Development (NED) Benefits
Summary Workbook
 Pre-processing adjustments
 Consistent interest rates
 Disaggregate input cost data
 Power costs
 Post-processing adjustments





Input costs
Fallow land costs
Management charge
Federal discount rate
Normalized crop prices

Example applications highlight:
› Integrated modeling capabilities
› Project-specific motivating factors
› Data requirements

Applications in progress:
› Remote sensing, calibration methods,
dynamics
 Richard Howitt @ 4pm