UNCLASSIFIED
Megacities – Reconnaissance, Surveillance,
Intelligence (M-RSI)
“Proof-of-Concept” Effort
Brief to SRG
06 February 2013
THIS BRIEFING IS UNCLASSIFIED
1
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois, 5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with MetaData
Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim Westervelt,
6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
2
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
SRG Charter
• Ensure research efforts line up with project requirements and is
performing good science.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Megacities Assessment EffortProposed SRG Membership
• Ben Riley: Chair
• Bert Davis: Co-chair
• PACOM: Mike Poore
• SOUTHCOM: Juan Hurtado
• EUCOM: Bill Busch
• JS/J-8: Tom Allen
• JS/J-3: Clarence Neason
• NRO: Chuck Perkins/Geoff Torrington
• DNI: Dave Honey/Robert Brose
• Army G-2: Collin Agee
• OSD/AT&L: Elmer Roman
• USACE/CERL: Chris White
• TRADOC: Gary Phillips
4
• CTTSO: Jim Frank
• HHS: Diane DiEuliis
• MINERVA: Erin Fitzgerald
• NASA: Molly Brown
• NGA: Bruce Heinlein
• USAID: Beth Cole/Steve Gale
• FEMA: Michael Gresalfi
• USIP: Fred Tipson
• NDU: Lin Wells
• NPS: Ray Buettner
• Columbia Univ.: Marc Levy
• Georgia Tech: Val Sitterle
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Project Participants & Partners
• USPACOM: Provide extensive support for understanding
COCOM operational requirements
• ERDC, Rapid Model Prototyping System and Urban Growth
Modeling team
• ONR: Understanding Digital Communications & Social Media
Communities in Megacities
• OSD/USAID: UNITY collaboration tools
• NGA: Provide access to projects, tools, and capabilities for
converting remotely sensed data to urban human geography
information
• NSI: Megacities Stability Models
• Universities: UIUC, GMU, NDU, NPS, ASU
5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Previous Workshops
• The Use of Remote Sensing to Support the Assessment of
Political Durability…Observable Manifestations of Hearts &
Minds: Identifying Opportunities for Remotely Sensing Popular
Perceptions Effort
– Dec 2010
– Sponsored jointly by SMA and USACE/ERDC
– Results briefed to Gen Mike Flynn Jan 2011
• What Can Remote Sensing Tell Us About Stability?
– June 2012
Proceedings Available
6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
7
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Mission Requirements
• Plan – Intelligence Preparation of the Environment helps the
commander selectively apply and maximize power and influence
at critical points in time and space
– Traditional IPE is optimized for kinetic operations on the battlefield
– It is not effectively codified in instruction for Phase 0 shaping.
• Monitor – Strategic warning aims for analytic perception and
effective communication of important changes in the character of
security threats
– Combatant Command J2s are a key component of the Defense Warning
Network but are heavily focused on current intelligence
– Strategic warning requires an understanding of cascading effects within
complex systems and access to a broad range of data well beyond the
scope of operational and incident-specific indicators
• Assess – Performance indicators support CCMD understanding of
whether means and ways are adequate to the ends they support,
where they are not, and why they are not
8
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Functional Requirements
• Analytic Frameworks
– Outlier and Recalcitrant States
– Regional Power Rebalancing
– Economic Insecurity
– Violent Extremism
– Humanitarian Crisis
• Computational Techniques
– Modeling and Simulation
– Statistical Methods
• Information Management/Architecture
– Analysis and Visualization Tools
– Spatial Data Infrastructure
– Deployable Information Systems
• Data Discovery and Collection
– Intelligence Collection
– Archival Data Exploitation
– USG/Host Nation Information Sharing
– Active Open Source Data Gathering
The Megacities RSI project is the basis of an enterprise solution that is
more ambitious than PACOM can attempt independently but which could
fundamentally enhance decision superiority
9
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Outlier and
Recalcitrant States
Regional Power
Rebalancing
Violent Extremism
Economic Insecurity
Humanitarian Crisis
Socio-Cultural
Vulnerabilities
Community Grievances
and Radicalization
Governance and Public
Services
Extremist Violence and
Facilitation
Security and CounterTerrorism Capacity
Economic Failure
Social Exclusion and
Immobility
Insecurity & AntiDemocratic Conditions
Cultural Narratives and
Public Sentiment
Social Discord and Violence
Support for Extremist
Ideology
Political, Legislative, and
Judicial Competency
Emergency, Health, and
Sanitation Services
Social Welfare and Human
Services
Threat Financing and
Sustainment
Organization, Recruitment,
and Training
Violent Extremist
Operations
Border, Transportation, and
Trade Security
Internal Security and Police
Military and Counter
Terrorism Response
Subsistence
Crisis
Social Discrimination
Denial of
Civil Liberties
Hostile Public
Sentiment
Protests/
Marches
Perception of
VEO
objectives
legitimacy
Functionality
of Ruling
Coalition
Public Service
/ Utilities
Access
Inadequate
Social Safety
Net
Arms and
Materiel
Ideology &
Leadership
VE Attacks
Border Patrol
Civil LE
Capacity
Military & CT
Capacity
National
Economic
Growth
Social
Marginalizati
on
Human
Rights
Violations
Social
Discontent in
Media
Riots
Perception of
violence
legitimacy
Systemic
Corruption
General
Health &
Medical
Services
Education
System
Criminal
Activity
Internat’l
Affiliations
Land
Appropriation
/ Control
Border
Infrastructur
e
Civil LE
Effectiveness
Military & CT
Intelligence
Local
Economic
Growth
Exclusionary
Policies
Pol/Mil
Encroachmen
t
Perceived
Threat to
Culture
Parliamentary
Opposition
In-country
Support for
VEO
Inadequate
CT Legal
Framework
Emergency
Responders
(non-police)
Job Creation
External
Sponsorship
Recruitment
Propaganda
Customs
Enforcement
Interagency
Security
Cooperation
Cross-border
Response/
Interdiction
Relative
Deprivation
Educational
Deficiencies
Limited
Representatio
n
Historic
Cultural
Views
Insubordinati
on
Diaspora
Support for
VEO
No Mandate
to Prosecute
leadership
Humanitarian
Emergencies
Response
Social
Protection
Legitimate
Enterprise
Training
Centers /
Locations
Logistics
Lines of
Communicati
on
Non-Gov’tal
Security
Operations
Paramil /
Tribal
Security
Capacity
1
2
3
10
Social Science Frameworks
- Adapted StaM
Indicators / Observables / Assessment Metrics
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Which countries are at-risk
for radicalization and
violent extremism?
 Analyzes the range of AsiaPacific security challenges
 Allows country prioritization
from a risk perspective
 Identifies countries and
issues requiring more indepth analysis
 Relies on readily available
datasets and more subjective
analysis - lowest data fidelity
11
FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY
Level 1 - Theater
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Which areas of Bangladesh are most
susceptible to radicalization of
student groups and rising interest in
violent extremism?
 Examines select conditions and
factors sub-nationally
 Supports a delineation of potential
areas of interest within a country
 Focuses analysis on specific
geographic and mission areas
Requires location-specific data,
studies, and indices – requires
additional data fidelity
12
FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY
Level 2 - Country
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
What urbanization trends affect
Bangladesh security forces,
facilities, and operations in Dhaka?
 Provides targeted socio-cultural
analyses to identify at-risk areas,
populations, and threats
 Examines indicators that cause and
contribute to local risks and threats
 Pinpoints potential operations zones
 Enables operational assessment: Are
we doing the right things in the right
places to address vulnerabilities and
threats?
Requires key, mission-specific data
13
FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY
Level 3 - Operating Area
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Analytic Requirements
Security Assistance
Crisis Response
State Stability
VEO Resurgence
What trends cause adverse
effects to military and security
capacity?
What variables make Dhaka
vulnerable to natural and manmade disasters?
What trends adversely affect
Dhaka’s economic, political, and
social stability?
What trends contribute to the
radicalization of Bangladeshis?
What affects military recruitment,
retention, and morale?
Have assessments changed from
previous USG Studies?
How does change in Dhaka’s
demographics affect stability?
What trends reflect rising
radicalization of the military?
How does urbanization affect
military personnel and facilities?
Have assessments changed from
previous AARs from DoD HA/DR?
What are the indicators and
precursors to internal and
external conflict in Bangladesh?
What trends affect the
radicalization of student groups?
What precursors lead to mutiny
(e.g. Bangladesh Rifles Mutiny
2009)?
What is the role of domestic and
international NGOs in HA/DR
planning and response?
What are the short- and long-term
effects of globalization on
Bangladesh’s stability?
What are the short- and long-term
effects of communication
revolution/technological
infrastructure on radicalization?
How are NGOs affected by
urbanization?
What are the short- and long-term
effects of communication
revolution/technological
infrastructure on Bangladesh’s
stability?
What draws Bangladeshis to
radical Islamist politics and
violent extremist organizations?
Are the indicators similar or
different?
What trends affect the civilmilitary relationship?
14
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• PACOM/ERDC: Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
15
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Operational Background
• Megacities are rapidly growing population centers where in many
cases, urbanization is far outstripping the ability of governments
to enforce rule of law and provide basic socio-economic services,
such as clean water, sanitation, etc.
• As a consequence of these deficiencies, these densely populated
urban areas can become spawning grounds for public
resentment, criminal activity and political radicalization, which is a
national security concern for US policymakers
16
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Overall Objectives
• Develop in partnership with PACOM a regionally-tailored, global
remote sensing collection requirements and strategies in order to
gain readily-collectible early indication and tracking of the
sources of state and population fragility and failure with primary
focus on Megacities.
– Apply the RSI paradigm to improve social-cultural analysis at
COCOMs
– Identify gaps in reconnaissance of megacities, at both finer
geographic scales and temporal fidelity
• Provide PACOM with a leave behind capability that they can
incorporate into their assessment methodology.
• Dhaka Bangladesh will be the case study megacity
• Provide AT&L with an assessment process that is broadly
applicable globally to other Command and to potential other USG
agencies.
17
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Technical Approach
• Project will explore
– Novel community- and city-level remote sensing techniques
allowing less expensive socio-cultural and human geographic
analyses of areas affected by and affecting rapid urbanization.
– New methods to understand the changes in population
composition in rapidly urbanizing areas.
• These methods will improve socio-cultural and human
geographic analyses at the community- and city-level integrating
remotely sensed data with other open source information.
18
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
M-RSI Project Concept
Project Research Focus
Previous Research
•ERDC Rapid model Prototyping
System
•ERDC Urban Growth Modeling
System
•OSD/USAID UNITY
Interagency Collaboration,
Planning and Analysis Tool
•NSI StaM model
•NGA/GMU Built-up area
delineation, water-level/flooding
assessment & imagery analysis
tools
•UIUC Culturomics Media
Analysis Tools
•NDU Datacards metadata tools
•USPACOM Sociocultural
Analysis Framework
•ONR/ASU Digital
Communications & Social Media
tools
19
Megacity Communicative Ecology
Models (ERDC, UIUC, ONR, ASU)
COCOM Communication Ecology
Design (PACOM, NSI, UNITY, NDU)
Remote Sensing Megacity Information
Forecasting (ERDC & NGA tools)
Project Results
•Two White Volumes, and
many presentations
amalgamating project and
`birds of a feather ‘research
•Integration of remote sensing
analysis tools, urban growth
models, and socio-cultural
simulation modeling
techniques for creating
COCOM operation specific
needs
•PACOM SCA
Communication Ecology
Design and Possible
Implementation
•Better Megacity
Communicative Ecology
Understanding w/ integration
into COCOM operation
specific needs
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Background Literature
• Flynn, Michael T., James Sisco, David C Ellis (2012). “Left of Bang:
The Value of Sociocultural Analysis in Today’s Environment.” PRISM
3:4, 13-21, http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/prism3-4/prism12-21_flynn-sisco-ellis.pdf
• Flynn, Michael T. et al. (2012). “National Security Challenges: Insights
from Social, Neurobiological, and Complexity Sciences, first section
`Populations in their Environments: Factors Impacting the Fragility of
Peace’.” Multilayer Assessment Program, Office of the Secretary of
Defense, July 2012,
http://nsiteam.com/pubs/National%20Security%20Challenges%20White%20Volume%20July%202012%20FINAL.PDF
• Price, John F (2012). “The Downfall of Adaptive Planning: Finding a
New Approach after a Failed Revolution.” Air & Space Power Journal,
March 2012, 118-131, http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/digital/pdf/articles/Mar-Apr-2012/Price.pdf
• Flynn, Michael T. et al. (TBA). “The Effectiveness of the DoD in
Employing the Social Sciences.” SMA Publication, in development.
20
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Tasks
• Task 1: Project Kick-off Meeting
• Task 2: Foundation Knowledge White Volume
• Task 3: Dhaka Bangladesh Socio-Cultural Analysis
• Task 4: Integrate researched data collection and computational models
with augmented USPACOM Socio-Cultural Analysis Framework
• Task 5: Publish final white volume discussing unmet intelligence gaps
regarding other at-risk megacities around the world
• Task 6: Experimental approach understanding megacity stability
21
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger, 5min)
• NSI: StaM & Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU : Communicative Ecology of Megacities
(Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
City Stability Model (StaM)
Analysis:
What drives the stability and instability
of a city?
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
23
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Why we need Conceptual Models
•
The same reason we need road maps
•
Robust conceptual model facilitates assessments and
analysis of complex social, political and economic
systems
•
Clarifying the underlying, comprehensive, transparent
and repeatable conceptual structure (model) of the
system …
•
Directs data collection and analysis making it more efficient and less costly
•
Facilitates development of a COP that is readily transportable across analysts,
departments and agencies
•
Aids in identification and analysis of non-intuitive relationships between factors (
2nd to nth order effects) in complex systems
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
24
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Understanding the Dynamics of a Megacity
What do we want to know about Megacities?
From the perspective of US interests and COCOM
missions, US analysts and planners need to understand
the dynamics that drive Megacities toward or away
from stabile conditions.
Specifically:
Q: What factors drive the stability and instability of a city?
Q: What are its greatest vulnerabilities?
Q: Where what are its areas of resilience?
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
25
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Generic City Stability Model
Comprehensive CITY STABILITY
External, national laws,
regulations, taxes
National, sub-state laws,
regulations, politics
GOVERNING STABILITY
Governing
Legitimacy
Political
Voice
Rule of Law
& Justice
Governing
Performance
Social
Services
External, national
influences
ECONOMIC STABILITY
Governing
Capacity
Bureau
strength
Revenue
Economic
Capacity
Value of
Economy
Infrastructure
Economic
Development
Resource
Security
Infra.
Flexibility
SOCIAL STABILITY
Social
Uncertainty
Psychological
Displacem’t
Physical
Displacem’t
Social
Cohesion
Quality of
Life
Physical
Perceived
Needs &
Deprivat’n
Conditions
Intra-group Inter-group
integration integration
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
26
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
City-StaM Megacity Approach
Dhaka Stability and Instability Analysis Design: Apply StaM model and hypothesis-testing
approach developed for ISAF to Dhaka
• Integrate remotely sensed data and expertise with qualitative research and stability modeling to
assesses indicators of Dhaka political, economic, social and environmental city dynamics
• Produce “Dhaka Dynamics” report including assessed stabilizing and destabilizing factors, city
resiliency and vulnerabilities and impact of critical “external” forces (e.g., VEO, central government,
other nation-states)
• City Dynamics visualization and US policy coverage analysis via UNITY
• Test and vet CITY StaM generic model for use in producing rapid analyses of city dynamics
(Bluegrass II)
City-StaM provides a conceptual structure for assessing stabilty
dynamics and integrating remotely-researched and remotely-sensed
indicator variables.
It is a discovery tool not a computational model.
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
27
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
StaM Process
Begin
Generic StaM Model
•
Model assumptions and concepts founded in extensive review of academic theory and research from
a wide range of fields
Step 1 Explore Model-based Stability Hypotheses*
Development and analysis of the tailored model based begins with search through entity-specific
sources guided by the generic model as a series of hypothesized relationships
Open-source, unclassified sources used, including government and international organization reports
and statistical data, newspapers, academic research, and policy analysis.
Step 2 Tailor City Model, e.g., Dhaka-StaM
As information is gathered, relationships represented in the generic StaM are specified for the unit of
interest. This is an iterative process involving
a) defining factors in the context of the state (e.g., components of high QOL are viewed differently by a New
York v. Dhaka population);
b) determining whether the hypothesized relationships between factors exists in that city; and,
c) adjusting, adding or eliminating factors and relationships where necessary.
Step 3 Explore and analyze factors/relationships that explain stability and
instability, resilience and vulnerability
Step 4 Add effects of state and other external actors into appropriate places in the
tailored model
Copyright 2012 NSI, Inc.. Not for dissemination
28
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
29
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNITY
Making A Whole of Government
Approach to a Collaborative World Possible
United States European Command
United States Southern Command
United States Agency for International Development
US Army Corps of Engineers
30
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNITY Background
• UNITY is a capability developed as part of the Cooperative Security JCTD ,
Department of Defense and US Agency for International Development co-led
interagency technology research and development initiative .
• UNITY provides stakeholders with the following web based functionality:
•
Regional and multinational non-classified information sharing
•
Mutually visible situation / event assessment and planning
•
Collaborative implementation, monitoring, and evaluation
•
Reusable / repeatable development and assistance frameworks
• UNITY’s goal is to provide cutting-edge unclassified collaborative tools to
support a better-integrated approach to development and assistance
cooperative activities with other U.S. agencies and across the partner
government and public-private divide in support of NSS, QDDR, QDR goals.
31
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNITY Capabilities and Data Sources
• UNITY ingests authoritative project data, regardless of
organization or format, to categorize and visualize data
using the USG foreign assistance framework
• UNITY juxtaposes steady-state organizational (DoS,
USAID, DoD, etc..) country plans to show overlaps / gaps
• UNITY bridges communities of interest via www.apan.org
collaboration
capabilities,
facilitating
multi-lingual
interagency and public-private interaction
• UNITY ingests mission area specific authoritative data
sources for display to user community
• UNITY Data fidelity & ownership is retained by the source
provider
UNITY Assistant –
Planning
UNITY Analytics –
Awareness
UNITY Tools –
Analysis
• UNITY includes USG, NGO, IO, and Partner Nation data
sources
32
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNITY Near Term Way Ahead
• UNITY is a currently being transitioned for hosting to both DoD and non-DoD
users. A hosting Memorandum of Agreement has been prepared for the UNITY
platform at USAID. USAID has tentatively agreed to host UNITY in FY13 and
FY14. Additionally, other organizations are looking into integrating UNITY into
their software tool suites supporting development and assistance activities.
• “Operationalization” of UNITY within the stakeholder community is ongoing,
with user groups & entitlement policy development underway to support this.
• As stakeholders desire to integrate UNITY into their existing tool suite or
provide additional data to the UNITY platform, working with the UNITY
Transition Team is the first step in moving forward with those efforts.
33
• UNITY, in addition to supporting our base cooperative security stakeholders,
will also be used to enable integration of unclassified datacards.org sociocultural information as part of the larger Megacities Strategic Multi-layer
Assessment (OSD(ATL)) and Unity of Effort Framework (JS J7) activities in the
coming fiscal year.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Evolution Toward UNITY 2.0
• As UNITY moves from prototype capability to operationally relevant functional
tool suite, improvements resulting from the Operational Utility Assessment of
UNITY are being considered for implementation to better support the
development & assistance community. Some of these enhancements include:
• Improved GIS services and mapping of UNITY content in support of enhanced
visualization of data parsed within UNITY.
• Addition of community specific data sets & overlays within UNITY to better
support development and assistance planners understanding of the
geographical, socio-cultural, economic and climatic environments in which they
will have resources allocated to and staff operating in.
• Enhanced data set and dashboard visualization within UNITY that will provide
a concise, “one-stop” review of activities and events that impact planners,
implementers and leaders from their own unique perspectives.
34
• Linkage in UNITY to decision support tools and models relative to the partner
nation development, assistance and stability mission set.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
DataCards
• DataCards is a structured wiki-like platform that uses “cards”
(like card catalog cards or baseball cards) to index and describe
key details re: socio-cultural (and related) data sources.
• Objectives of DataCards include:
– Make sources of data discoverable.
– Reduce search costs for data.
– Conduit to discover and share data sources between and
among non-traditional, academic, NGO, defense, law
enforcement, and intelligence communities.
• Accessing DataCards:
− Commercial Internet: http://www.datacards.org/
− SIPRNet: by request, hosted by OSD CAPE
35
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
36
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Neighborhood Economic Characterization in
Megacities
from Imagery Sources
Karen Owen, PhD
Contractor Support to HG Program Office, NGA
Adjunct Professor, GGS, George Mason University
owenkk@nga.mil
kowen@gmu.edu
37
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Why Dhaka?
• SouthAsia terrorism portal
• 5 terror/extremist groups
operating in BN
• Global Terror Database
• 160 events since 2003
High Risk for
Instability
38
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Academic Research Background &
University Involvement
Sierra Leone
Guatemala City
39
Dhaka,
Bangladesh
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Intra-urban socioeconomic variation
Current methods in academic literature:
• Thermal radiation (urban heat islands)
• Roads (surfaces, accessibility)
• Vegetation (type, presence, shape, pattern)
• Built-up density (built-up areas, imperviousness)
• Terrain geomorphology (slope, curvature)
• Computer vision algorithms (shape/texture of built-up)
… but validation without field work is difficult!
40
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Data Element
41
Intra-urban Socioeconomic Variation
Data
Type
Benefit
NGA Tool
NGA Data
Land Surface
Temperature
image
surface temp variation, urban
heat islands
Road surfaces,
width
Image,
polyline
time-to-travel, friction surfaces,
road accessibility
Road
tracker
Waterway (river)
accessibility
polyline
time-to-travel (monsoonal vs.
non-monsoonal)
Road
tracker
Flood risk
image
population impacted by flood/
seasonal
Flood Tool
/ MAT
Terrestrial rainfall
image
seasonal weather patterns
Shoreline
polyline
data modeling accuracy
DIBDB

Land Cover
Classes
raster img
& polygon
up to 30 land cover classes
identified, static
VIZNAV

Built-up areas
image
model urban
growth/directionality
SMtool
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
NGA/GMU Involvement
• Processed imagery
• HG tools & techniques in test environment
• Subject matter expertise
42
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Forecasting (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
43
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Megacity Growth Forecasting Goals
• Identify ranges of growth or change for
• Population
• Infrastructure and Essential Services
• Social Groups
• Simulate near- and long-term changes in Megacities for understanding
forecasting variation
• Develop simulation models forecasting indicators, observables, &
assessment metrics
44
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Urban Growth Modeling in Megacities
Urban neighborhood
indicators and other
`long data’ GIS data
Landuse
Attractiveness
Urban Growth Forecasts
45
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Forecasting Indicators and Observables
PACOM SME Knowledge &
SCA Frameworks
Urban growth
forecasts
Population
Representation
Narratives
Surveys
Census
46
Rapid Model Prototyping
of indicators, observables,
& assessment metrics
with
Measured data errors &
uncertainties represented
in monitoring tools
COCOM specific
monitoring and forecasting
tools instead of one-off maps
Behavioral
Representation
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
47
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Communicative Ecologies of Megacities
The communicative ecology of a
place contains three layers:
• Social groups
Common Communication Ecologies
• Discursive (themes of
mediated or unmediated
communication)
• Various media and
technologies (aka
communication ecologies)
All layers must be measured for a
specific population’s
communicative ecology to be
understood
48
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
COCOM Needs
Social Media Snapshot reachback
capacity for specific surveillance
missions
Long Data Social Media Monitoring
System
• Measures of topic frequency and
tone
• By location into megacity
neighborhood if possible, social
group, and over long periods of
time
• Monitoring prevalence of specific
communication ecologies in
specific areas present and past
49
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with
MetaData Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
50
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
NPS Involvement
• The analysis and application of emerging technology that could
be used to assist with data collection, assessment and
forecasting
• The development and application of visualization techniques to
help analysis understand data as it applies to this area and to
communicate their understanding to senior leaders
• The integration of proposed techniques and technologies into the
Combatant Command planning process and operational
framework.
51
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Agenda
• PACOM Overview & Requirements (Dave Browne, 10min)
• Technical overview (Chuck Ehlschlaeger & Allison Astorino-Courtois,
5min)
• NSI: Framework Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, 10min)
• ERDC/NDU: UNITY, A Collaborative & Planning Platform with MetaData
Analysis (Mark Hainsey, Brian Efird, 10min)
• NGA/GMU: Neighborhood Geospatial Analysis (Karen Owen, 10min)
• ERDC: Megacity Growth Modeling (Chuck Ehlschlaeger and Jim
Westervelt, 6min)
• ERDC/ONR/UIUC/ASU: Communicative Ecology of Megacities (Chuck
Ehlschlaeger and Rebecca Goolsby, 6min)
• NPS: Experimental Design (Jerry “Scotty” Scott, 10min)
• Summary and Way Ahead (Dave Browne, 5min)
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
52
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Major Deliverables
• White Paper & Presentation Series
– Explore completed research and research in progress
– Draft White Papers for SMA White Volumes
• Analytic Frameworks
– Framework Identification
– Draft Frameworks for Peer Review
– Final Frameworks for Validity Testing
• Computational Models
– Model Identification and Concept Summary
– Computational Models
• Experimental Design for Megacity Monitoring
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
53
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Working Meetings and InProgress Reviews
• Project Team Meetings – Weekly
– NSI
– CERL-ERDC
– PACOM SCD
– Others by Technical Lead (Dr. Ehlschlaeger) Request
• Senior Leadership In-Progress Reviews – Bi-Weekly
– OSD AT&L
– NSI
– CERL-ERDC
– PACOM SCD
• Executive Leadership SRG Meetings – Quarterly
– All SRG Members
This first session will focus primarily on the proposed approach
54
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
55
Backup Slides
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Functional Diagram
(Task 1)
USPACOM/Projec
t Team Meeting:
Kick-off and
Familiarization
with USPACOM
Socio-Cultural
Analysis
Framework
Previous Research
•ERDC Rapid model Prototyping
System
•ERDC Urban Growth Modeling
System
•OSD/USAID UNITY Interagency
Collaboration, Planning and Analysis
Tool
•NSI StaM model
•NGA/GMU Built-up area delineation,
water-level/flooding assessment tools
•UIUC Culturomics Media Analysis
Tool
•NDU Datacards metadata tools
•USPACOM Social Culture Analysis
Framework
56
(Task 2) White
Volume:
Using the
Reconnaissance,
Surveillance, and
Intelligence Paradigm
and Socio-Cultural
Analysis to Better
Understand
Megacities
(Task 6) Experimental
approach
understanding
megacity stability
(Task 3) Dhaka Socio-
Cultural Analysis
augmenting USPACOM
Socio-Cultural Analysis
Framework:
Assessing Drivers of
Stability and Instability
(Task 4) Integrate
researched data
collection and
computational models
with augmented
USPACOM SocioCultural Analysis
Framework
(Task 5) Publish final
white volume discussing
unmet intelligence gaps
regarding other at-risk
megacities around the
world
Partner Contributions
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task One: Kickoff Meeting
• Review of Project Relevant Research
• Review of USPACOM Socio-Cultural Analysis Framework
• Discussion of project’s development of augmented SCA
Framework
• Discussion of integrating NGA, ONR, and other open source
information to COCOM processes
• Specific topics:
– Sociological sensing…remote anthropology
– Role of Social Media
– Experimental implementation: BLUEGRASS II
– Smarter Cities (IBM)
– Large Data Problems
– Fragile States (USIP and AfP)
57
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task 2: Foundation Knowledge
White Volume
”
• Topics:
– A Social Science Look at Megacities
– Creating a Foundation of Social Science Indicators
– Remote Urban Environmental and Socio-Cultural Analysis
– Remote Media Analysis
58
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task Three: Dhaka Analysis
Approach: Multi-source, unclassified assessment of stability and instability
dynamics that drive life in Dhaka
Design & Analyses:
• Employs StaM model and hypothesis-testing approach developed for ISAF and
used for Afghanistan and Pakistan stability assessments
• Produces “Dhaka Dynamics” report including assessed stabilizing and destabilizing
factors, city resiliency and vulnerabilities and impact of critical “external” forces
(e.g., VEO, central government, other nation-states)
• City Dynamics visualization and US policy coverage analysis via UNITY JCTD
• Tests and vets CITY StaM generic model for use in producing rapid analyses of
city dynamics (Bluegrass II)
• Integrates NGA remotely sensed geo-data and expertise with qualitative research
and stability modeling to assesses indicators of Dhaka political, economic, social
and environmental city dynamics
59
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task Four: Dhaka Socio-cultural
Simulation Case Studies
• Deliverable: Simulation models to USPACOM
– Natural resources computation model applied to USPACOM
operational needs
– Socio-cultural computation model applied to USPACOM
operational needs
– Fine grained spatial-temporal media analysis will be
incorporated into at least one computational model
– NGA/GMU urban area analytical techniques incorporated into
at least one computational model
– White Paper to USPACOM with specific recommendations to
Bangladesh SCA framework based on this effort, with
unclassified version included with Task Five White Volume
60
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task Five: Final Megacity White
Volume
• Deliverable: White Volume integrating results of all research
effort
– Chapters from seminar series
– Chapters from research efforts, both socio-cultural and human
geographic analyses and computational case studies
61
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Task Six: Experimental approach
understanding megacity stability
• Deliverable: Design of experimental approach to long term
megacity stability understanding
– Short chapter in Task Five White Volume
– Extensive report to Joint Staff
62
UNCLASSIFIED