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Analysis of Federal Mitigation Policy in the U.S.: Mitigation Plans, Expenditures, Civic
Engagement, and Local Capacity
Philip Berke, PhD
Professor, UNC-CH Department of City & Regional Planning
Deputy Director, Institute for the Environment
Gavin Smith, PhD
Assoc. Research Professor, UNC-CH Department of City & Regional Planning
Executive Director, DHS Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence
Ward Lyles, PhD
Post-doc Research Associate
UNC-CH Institute for the Environment
Dylan Sandler, MRP
Research Associate, DHS Coastal Hazards Center of Excellence
DHS Annual Meeting
1/31 – 2/1, 2013
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Project Overview
To develop and test a meta-theoretical plan quality (PQ)
framework for analyzing hazard mitigation planning under the
2000 Federal Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA).
The PQ framework contains building blocks of measurable
indicators that can be used by researchers and practitioners
to understand the effects of planning on vulnerability
reduction actions across diverse settings.
.
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Project Overview
Application of the Plan Quality framework:
•
PQ assessment tool documents patterns in plans, identifies specific
weak points that could undermine the effectiveness of individual plans.
•
Can be used by FEMA and states to monitor change in local plan quality
and policy, and provides an empirical basis for making targeted
improvements in planning.
•
PQ framework is being applied to multiple planning domains in hazard
management (e.g. NFIP’s CRS, disaster recovery, and climate
adaptation) and diverse settings
• US: 6 states and 175 local governments
• Canada, Malaysia, New Zealand
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Project Relevance
 Evaluated a major federal policy
• First national evaluation of the performance of state and local hazard
mitigation planning under the 2000 Disaster Mitigation Act.
 Filled a major gap in knowledge
• Major need to develop better theories and measurements to assess that
quality of “local” plans and their impacts on hazard vulnerability (NRC
2006, NAS 2012).
• DHS funded study applies the meta-PQ framework developed at UNC-CH.
 Trained the next generation
• 13 masters students
• 1 doctoral student
• 1 doctoral student intern - Jackson State University
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Technical Approach
Sample Strategy
30 coastal states
175 local gov’ts in 6 states
Content analysis of state & local hazard mitigation plans
Plan assessment tool
Atlas.ti 6.0 qualitative analysis software
Inter-coder reliability
Survey and interviews
State officials to assess local capacity building
Local officials to assess plan implementation
Statistics Analyses
Descriptive statistics, means testing (t-test, ANOVA), multivariate
modeling
Case studies of local hazard mitigation planning
Social network analysis
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Progress to Date - Year 5
Months 1-6:
 completed survey on local plan implementation
 integrated data sets to analyze implementation, and factors
driving implementation success
 completed 4 case studies of local hazard mitigation planning
Months 6-12:
 complete development of an interactive website in
collaboration with FEMA
 continue development of a hazards management certificate
program
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Translational Activities
 Website: FEMA
• Building on Local Mitigation Planning Handbook
• Best practices derived from research
 Policy advice: FEMA
• update for mitigation plan guidance
• update for CRS-credited floodplain management plans
 Graduate course on hazard management
 Research summaries for policy makers
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Interactive Website
www.mitigationguide.org
TASK 5:
Conduct a Risk Assessment
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Products - Year 5
Months 1-6:
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•
•
•
•
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1 peer reviewed paper published
2 peer reviewed papers accepted for publication
3 papers submitted for peer review
2 dissertation awards
6 research summaries (2-4 pgs.) for policy makers
Syllabus for graduate course: Hazard management and climate change
Months 6-12:
• Interactive website (plan assessment tool and users guide)
• 1 paper to be submitted for peer review
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Products - Year 5
Publications:
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Berke, Philip, Gavin Smith and Ward Lyles. 2012. Planning for Resiliency: An Evaluation of State Hazard
Mitigation Plans under the Disaster Mitigation Act. Natural Hazards Review 13(2): 139-149
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Berke, Philip and Ward Lyles. "Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate Adaptation: A Proposed Framework
for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty," Cityscape (forthcoming).
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Smith, Gavin, Ward Lyles, Philip Berke. The Role of the State in Building Local Capacity and Commitment for
Hazard Mitigation Planning. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. (forthcoming)
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Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “State Influences on Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Quality in Four
Southeastern States,” Landscape and Urban Planning (under review)
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Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “Do Planners Matter? Examining Factors Driving Incorporation of Land Use
Approaches into Hazard Mitigation Plans,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management (under
review)
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Berke, Philip, Ward Lyles, and Gavin Smith. Impacts of Federal and State Hazard Mitigation Policies on Local
Land Use Policy, Journal of Planning Education and Research (under review)
Two Dissertation Awards:
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Lyles, W. “Who Plans for Mitigation? Examining the Influence of Hazard Mitigation Stakeholder Networks
Using Social Network Analysis” Poster Award at Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning Conference.
Cincinnati, Ohio, November 2012.
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Lyles, W. Graduate Education Advancement Board Impact Award; recognizes outstanding graduate student
research of particular benefit to North Carolina, 2013.
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Looking Forward: Demonstration Community
 Create a community disaster resiliency scorecard (measurable
indicators)
 Assess adaptive capacity
• plan quality (stand-alone mitigation plan and/or comprehensive plan)
• implementation (regulations, incentives, investments)
 Assess community hazard vulnerability (NC iRISK)
• Physical vulnerability
• Social vulnerability
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Score for Local Mitigation Plan Policies (n =175)
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10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.4
3.3
Property
Protection
Public
Information
3.3
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
Preventative
Land Use
Emergency
Services
Structural
Controls
All scores standardized to 0-10 scale; data generated from content analysis of local hazard
mitigation plans for 175 jurisdictions in six states
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Implications of Weak Land Use Policy: Smart Growth in Dumb Locations
“A wave of Smart Growth is engulfing
the Texas coast…”
Seaside, Florida
www.texasgulfcoastonline.com/, Jan. 2012
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Planners in Stakeholder Networks
Onslow County
New Hanover County
C
C
C
C
Emergency
Management
Planning
Other Expertise (e.g. Public Works,
Administration, Natural Resources)
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Scores for Plan Quality Principles
States are a powerful driver in determining
the strength of local mitigation planning
Significant variability in scores across states
Plan quality principles were moderate to low.
Some states prepared strong plans for some
plan quality principles, but scored below
average for other principles, which could
jeopardize successful implementation.
State Plan Quality Scores
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
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Questions?
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
18
Products - Year 5
Publications:
•
Berke, Philip and Ward Lyles. "Public Risks and the Challenges to Climate Adaptation: A Proposed Framework
for Planning in the Age of Uncertainty," Cityscape (forthcoming).
•
Smith, Gavin, Ward Lyles, Philip Berke. The Role of the State in Building Local Capacity and Commitment for
Hazard Mitigation Planning. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. (forthcoming)
•
Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “State Influences on Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Quality in Four
Southeastern States,” Landscape and Urban Planning (under review)
•
Lyles, W., P. Berke, and G. Smith. “Do Planners Matter? Examining Factors
Driving Incorporation of Land
Use Approaches into Hazard Mitigation Plans,” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management (under
review)
•
Berke, Philip, Ward Lyles, and Gavin Smith. Impacts of Federal and State Hazard Mitigation Policies on Local
Land Use Policy, Journal of Planning Education and Research (under review)
Two Dissertation Awards:
•
Lyles, W. “Who Plans for Mitigation? Examining the Influence of Hazard Mitigation Stakeholder Networks
Using Social Network Analysis” Poster Award at Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning Conference.
Cincinnati, Ohio, November 2012.
•
Lyles, W. Graduate Education Advancement Board Impact Award; recognizes outstanding graduate student
research of particular benefit to North Carolina, 2013.
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013