Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling
R. Luettich, J. Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser, Jie Gao
NW
NE
SW
SE
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Project Overview
• Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling
• Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet
operational needs
• Disseminate / train community in the state of the art in coupled wave – surge –
inundation modeling.
Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project
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Risk determination and delineation - FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Event based forecasting – partnership with NHC / NWS – Irene, Isaac, Sandy
Initial post storm damage estimates
Training exercises
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Technical Approach
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ADCIRC + SWAN + ancillary support models
ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – ASGS
“ADCIRC Bootcamp”
NetCDF, OpenDAP, Thredds, data standards / Matlab tools
CERA website + outreach to EMs + moble apps
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date
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Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas
Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study
NC SLR pilot study
Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input
• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results
• Improvements to parametric wind model
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from H*Wind
3.00
Modeled Maximum Water Elevation (m)
(m)
y = 0.6931x
R² = 0.1552
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from OWI Wind
3.00
Modeled Maximum Water Elevation (m)
(m)
y = 0.8806x
R² = 0.1752
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from Asymmetric Vortex Gradient Wind
3.00
Modeled Maximum Water Elevation (m)
(m)
y = 1.0102x
R² = 0.2559
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Observed Maximum Water Elevation (m)
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date
•
•
•
•
Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas
Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study
NC SLR pilot study
Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input
• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results
• Improvements to parametric wind model
• PRIME TIME USE
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–
Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)
Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble
Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble
Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Progress to Date
•
•
•
•
Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas
Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study
NC SLR pilot study
Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast
process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input
• Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for
interoperability & tools to access / visualize results
• Improvements to parametric wind model
• PRIME TIME USE
–
–
–
–
Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week)
Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble
Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble
Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,
• 3 annual “ADCIRC Bootcamps” (25 – 35 attendees / year)
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
ADCIRC Bootcamp 2012
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Current Translation Activities and End Users
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FEMA NFIP study – various working groups
ADCIRC bootcamp
NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites
ADCIRC_Viz
Briefings for USCG, USACE, NHC, public media
Products
• Numerous publications and presentations
• NC FEMA NFIP reports
• NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013
Looking Forward
• Careful evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system for recent storms
• Enhancements to parametric wind model – see Jie Gao poster
• Expansion of groups running ASGS around US and integration of results
from multiple sources
• HURRICANE SANDY
Research Lead  The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting
January 31-February 1, 2013