Six basic programmatic activities Critical interventions that create an enabling environment for achieving maximum impact; and Programmatic efforts in wider health and development sectors related to AIDS. Rights-based approach to all services and policies Activities that have a direct impact on reducing HIV transmission, morbidity and mortality to be scaled up according to size of relevant affected population Based on high level evidence of effectiveness. Treatment, care and support Vertical Transmission prevention Condom procurement and distribution Key populations programs (MSM, IDU, Sex Workers) Male circumcision Behavior Change programs Social Enablers - make possible environments conducive for sound AIDS responses: outreach for HIV testing Linkage from testing to care treatment literacy stigma reduction advocacy to protect human rights monitoring of the equity and quality of programme access and results Program Enablers - create demand for and help improve the performance of key interventions: incentives for engagement in health services methods to improve retention on ART capacity building for community-based organizational development strategic planning communications infrastructure information dissemination efforts to improve service integration and linkages from testing to care. Health systems and multiple health issues Gender equality efforts Education and justice sectors Social protection and welfare Food security Community systems Housing Community-driven outreach and engagement activities that connect people facing similar issues and engage them in HIV-related interventions Support activities to enhance quality, adherence and impact in a range of settings such as people on treatment, engaged in harm reduction or drug treatment services, or who are using sexual and reproductive health services Advocacy, transparency and accountability efforts at country and local levels to ensure that high-quality health services are available and accessible to vulnerable populations. Community support keeps people on treatment CLINIC-BASED TREATMENT 70% still receiving treatment after two years Sub-Saharan Africa: people receiving ART from specialist clinics Source: Fox MP, Rosen S. Patient retention in antiretroviral therapy programs up to three years on treatment in subSaharan Africa, 2007–2009: systematic review. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 2010, 15(Suppl. 1):1–15. COMMUNITY TREATMENT MODEL 98% still receiving treatment after two years Mozambique: self-initiated community model Source: Decroo T et al. Distribution of antiretroviral treatment through self-forming groups of patients in Tete province, Mozambique. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 2010 [Epub ahead of print]. Sources: Fox MP, Rosen S. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 2010. Decroo T et al. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 2010. Community mobilisation increased HIV testing rates four-fold in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Thailand Consistent condom use in the past 12 months was 4 times higher in communities with good community engagement (Kenya) Hypothetical circumcision model KwaZulu-Natal : Core intervention: 240,000 infections averted over ten years With enablers: 420,000 infections averted, with modest marginal increase in costs Percentage of people retained in treatment and care after diagnosis, USA and Mozambique Retained in treatment and care 100% USA Mozambique 0 Diagnosed with HIV Linked/ enrolled in care Tested <30 days Retained in care Eligible for ART Initiated ART Source: Gardner E M et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:793-800; Micek et al JAIDS 2009 Adherent or undetectable Percentage of people retained in treatment and care after diagnosis, USA and Mozambique To improve testing: Reduce stigma in the community and in healthcare settings Strengthen community support and referral networks Enhance human rights literacy Retained in treatment and care 100% USA Mozambique 0 Diagnosed with HIV Linked/ enrolled in care Tested <30 days Retained in care Eligible for ART Initiated ART Source: Gardner E M et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:793-800; Micek et al JAIDS 2009 Adherent or undetectable Percentage of people retained in treatment and care after diagnosis, USA and Mozambique Improve enrolment in care: Expand community-centred delivery Overcome cost & transport barriers Enhance treatment & rights literacy Retained in treatment and care 100% USA Mozambique 0 Diagnosed with HIV Linked/ enrolled in care Tested <30 days Retained in care Eligible for ART Initiated ART Source: Gardner E M et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:793-800; Micek et al JAIDS 2009 Adherent or undetectable Percentage of people retained in treatment and care after diagnosis, USA and Mozambique Get more people on treatment: Enhance peer support programmes Reduce costs Overcome transport barriers Ensure adequate nutrition Reduce stigma in healthcare settings Retained in treatment and care 100% USA Mozambique 0 Diagnosed with HIV Linked/ enrolled in care Tested <30 days Retained in care Eligible for ART Initiated ART Source: Gardner E M et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:793-800; Micek et al JAIDS 2009 Adherent or undetectable Percentage of people retained in treatment and care after diagnosis, USA and Mozambique Retain people on treatment: Adherence support programmes Reduce gender inequalities Reduce fear of disclosure Overcome cost and transport barriers Referral and support programmes for migrants Retained in treatment and care 100% USA Mozambique 0 Diagnosed with HIV Linked/ enrolled in care Tested <30 days Retained in care Eligible for ART Initiated ART Source: Gardner E M et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:793-800; Micek et al JAIDS 2009 Adherent or undetectable What can we achieve? Universal Access by 2015 Resource needs and returns on investment were estimated for 139 low- and middle-income countries Estimates based on the cost of increasing from current levels of coverage in 2011 to achieve universal access target coverage levels by 2015 and maintain them thereafter. (Includes 1st and 2nd line treatment.) Each of the basic programme activities in the framework was applied to relevant populations according to their demographic and epidemiological situation including the distribution of new HIV infections by mode of transmission as detailed in the literature. 3,000,000 New HIV infections 2,500,000 2,000,000 New infections averted between 2011 and 2020: 12.2 million 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2011 2012 2013 Baseline 2014 2015 2016 Investment Framework 2017 2018 2019 2020 2,500,000 AIDS deaths 2,000,000 AIDS deaths averted between 2011 and 2020: 7.4 million 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2011 2012 2013 Baseline 2014 2015 2016 2017 Investment Framework 2018 2019 2020 Outcomes Total infections averted 12.2 million Infant infections averted 1.9 million Life years gained Deaths averted 29.4 million 7.4 million 2011 2015 2020 Basic Programs 7.0 12.9 10.6 Critical Enablers Synergies with Development Sectors Total 5.9 3.4 3.7 3.6 16.6 5.8 22.0 5.4 19.8 25 Baseline Investment Framework Cost (billions US$) 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cost/Returns Total additional investment (over 10 years) Future treatment need averted Life years gained USD 46.5 Billion USD 40 Billion $1,060 per life year gained