Impact Chicago
Terry Mazany
President & CEO
Impact Chicago
Jim Lewis, Ph.D.
Senior Program Officer
Impact Chicago
Prof. Robert Sampson
Harvard University
Prof. Wesley Skogan
Northwestern University
Historic homicide rate in Chicago
Declining crime rates
Violent Crime - per 100,000 residents
Declining violence rates
source: City and Suburban Crime Trends in Metropolitan America,
The Brookings Institution
Homicide totals
Murder Victims in the City of Chicago
1000
900
800
928 943
931
855
828
796
761
704
700
643 633
667 656
601
600
513
500
400
300
200
100
0
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
453 451
471
448
507
459
436 433
Homicide motives
Indoor
Murder
& Outdoor
Clearances
Murders
Shootings
&
Stabbings
Murders
by
Motive
300
Street Gang Altercation
250
Gangland Narcotics
Armed Robbery
Domestic Altercation
200
150
100
50
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Shootings & homicides in Chicago
Homicides – Race/ethnicity of victims
Indoor
Murder
& Outdoor
Murders
Murder
Shootings
Victims
&Clearances
by
Stabbings
Race/Ethnicity
1000
Total
900
Black
800
Hispanic
White
700
Other
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicide – Indoor or outdoor
Indoor v. Outdoor Murders
1000
900
Total
800
Outdoor
Indoor
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicides – Shootings, stabbings
Indoor
Murder
& Outdoor
Murders
Shootings
&Clearances
Stabbings
800
700
Shot
Stabbed
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicide prior arrest - offender
Murder
Indoor
Victims
&with
with
Outdoor
PriorMurders
ArrestHistory
History
Murder
Offenders
Prior
Arrest
1200
Total
1000
Yes
No
800
600
400
200
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicides cleared
Indoor
Murder
& Outdoor
Clearances
Murders
1000
900
Cleared
800
Cleared in
Same Year
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Criminal justice system in Illinois
In 2009, more than 125,000 adults were under a form of correctional supervision
—including probation, prison or mandatory supervised release—for a felony
conviction in Illinois: almost double the number in 1989.
Source: Illinois Sentencing Police Advisory Council
Prison system overcrowding
Sources: Illinois Dept. of Corrections, John Howard Association
Impact Chicago
Prof. Robert Sampson
Harvard University
Prof. Wesley Skogan
Northwestern University
Policing & public safety
Concentration of Violence and Child Well-Being
=
Murder Rate
Source:
Sampson, 2012
The Enduring Grip of Disadvantage:
Durability of Concentrated Poverty During an Era of
Social Transformation, Chicago Community Areas, 1960-2000
Source:
Sampson 2012
Inequality’s Durable Imprint:
Before and after the 2008 Economic Crisis
Source:
Sampson, 2012
Source: Sampson, 2012
Not Just About Poverty:
Remarkably Persistent Violence Profiles
During a Sharp Secular Decline in Violence
Source:
Sampson, 2012
Collective Efficacy Theory
Community
structure
Mediating
mechanism
Rates of
well-being
Spatial and macro
level processes
Collective efficacy
Concentrated
(dis)advantage;
Residential stability
Violence/
disorder/
Network ties;
health
Organizations
Individual characteristics
and selection processes
Source: Sampson, 2012
Collective Efficacy Predicts Later Homicide Rates
(Controlling for time period, concentrated disadvantage, residential stability, population
density, friend/kinship ties, legal/moral cynicism, and prior homicide)
Source: Sampson, 2012
What is the effect of police strategies?
Cure violence (CeaseFire-Chicago) model
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Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
Policing strategies
Smart Gun Policing
•
•
•
•
•
•
interrupt supply
deter possession
reduce public gun carrying
tough responses to gun use
reduce demand for guns
address conditions that foster gun carrying and use
Smart Gang Policing
• targeting violent groups and high-risk individuals
Smart Community Oriented Policing
• responsive to community concerns and priorities
• assist in norm building by gaining respect and confidence
• assist in community mobilization
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
Building public confidence & respect
Under Age 30 by Race
Police Responsiveness
Quality of Service
80
percent favorable
80
60
60
40
20
0
40
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
20
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
0
Quality of Service Index
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Afraid to Go Out by Home Ownership
percent fearful
percent favorable
80
60
40
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
20
0
40
30
20
10
0
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
20
03
renters
home owners
19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Assist in community mobilization
928,200
7384
6839
800000
6000
6000
5615
5105
600000
4000
400000
2000
1838
1536
200000
monthly attendance
cumulative attendance
0
0
01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0107
/9 /9 /9 /9 /9 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
cumulative attendance
monthly attendance
6133
Declining crime rates
Violent Crime - per 100,000 residents
How important is trust of the police for reducing crime?
photo credit: right, John J. Kim / AP
How do gangs affect the homicide and crime rates?
Would stronger gun control reduce homicides?
Indoor
Murder
& Outdoor
Murders
Shootings
&Clearances
Stabbings
800
700
Shot
Stabbed
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Most shootings happen in low-income neighborhoods
How does poverty contribute to crime rates?
photo credit: Flickr member Zol87
Have the changing demographics of Chicago changed crime?
Why did the murder rate rise in 2012?
Murder Victims in the City of Chicago
1000
900
800
928 943
931
855
828
796
761
704
700
643 633
667 656
601
600
513
500
400
300
200
100
0
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
453 451
471
448
507
459
436 433
What works?
• Patrol strategies
• Hardened targets - security
• Hot spot arrests
• Broken windows
• Gang interventions
• Gun control
• Social/Emotional training
photo credit: top, Chronicle/Lance Iversen
Has policing affected homicide levels?
source: Chicago Justice Project
Does incarceration reduce crime?
Sources: Illinois Dept. of Corrections, John Howard Association
In conversation
Prof. Wesley Skogan
Northwestern University
Prof. Robert Sampson
Harvard University
Moderator:
Jim Lewis, Ph.D.
Senior Program Officer
Go deeper
Today’s presentation can be viewed online:
www.cct.org/impactchicago
For more information about today’s topic:
contact Jim Lewis at 312.616.8000 ext. 158
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Impact Chicago
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