技术分析
艾略特波浪理论
入门介绍
2011年7月
Murray Gunn CFTe
Head of Technical Analysis
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6797
murray.gunn@hsbcib.com
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
ABC
Global Research
1
让你的朋友惊叹的数字游戏！
Write down any two whole numbers with the lower number on the left.
Add them together to create a third number and write that down next to the second number.
Then add that third number to the second number to create a fourth number.
Repeat the process another seven times.
Finally, divide the last number in the series by the second last number.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
11 divided by 10
1
1
2
3
5
8
13
21
34
55
89
1.618
9
65
74
139
213
352
565
917
1,482
2,399
3,881
1.618
11
17
28
45
73
118
191
309
500
809
1,309
1.618
326
1,973
2,299
4,272
6,571
10,843
17,414
28,257
45,671
73,928
119,599
1.618
3,705
751,935
755,640
1,507,575
2,263,215
3,770,790
6,034,005
9,804,795
15,838,800
25,643,595
41,482,395
Source: HSBC
1.618
2
1.618 = Phi
黄金比例/黄金平衡/黄金分割
累加生长和衰亡
.382
.618
混沌背后的规律
Source: istockphoto.com, shutterstock.com
3
1
艾略特波浪理论
分形设计
(5)
(3)
 拉尔夫•纳尔逊•艾略特
 价格波动呈现型态规律
(B)
长期
 五浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的主要方向
(4)
(1)
(2)
中期
1
3
5
5 B
(1)
3
1
1
5 B
4
4
2
A
C 2
4
1
1
(B)
2
3
(3)
3
完整
周期
5
1
2
短期
4
5 B 1
(5)
2
(C)
3
4
4 AC
2
2
A
C
5 B
1
3
B
3
 比率分析/自然之数学（ phi比率 、黄金比率
、1.618、列昂纳多·斐波纳契）
4
1
5
C
4 A
1
 每个时间架构或者分形都会重复
 反映了大规模人群行为的规律
2
3
 三浪所组成的波浪是股市运行的修正方向
2
(A)
5
A
4
3 5 B 1
(A)
5
C
(4)
3
组合在一起
(C)
2
4 AC
2
(2)
2
4
命名
 艾略特在图表上做了标记，区分不同
趋势或分形的层级
 特大超级循环浪长达数个世纪
 循环浪跨度为数年
 基本浪跨度为数个月
 次微浪只有几小时或几天
5
波浪在形式上是自相似的…
 …但是在时间或者深度（振幅）上他们不一定是自相似的
(5)
更接近真实情况
5
(3)
3
1
5
3
4
B
D
4
2
E
1
(4)
(1)
C
5
3
B
4
1
2
A
A
2
C
(2)
6
从“强手”到“弱手”分散
心理周期
狂热、欣喜、自满
参考: Frost & Prechter “Elliott Wave Principle”, 1978
泡沫，投机，振幅窄，
“基本面”佳/利好消
息连连
松一口气，抱
有希望，否认， 大幅强劲跌势，
振幅窄
“基本面”/消
B
息转为消极
5
3
3
最强劲的波动，振幅
扩张，“基本面”/
消息好转
A
4
惊愕，不耐烦
1
惊吓，否认，
“谷底买入”心
态
C
“基本面” / 负
绝望，恐惧
面消息
2
绝望，恐惧
否认，误以
为熊市尚未
结束
从“弱手”到“强手” 集中
7
规则和指引
通过实证观察，艾略特得出结论：波浪的形成是遵循各种规则和指引的。这些规则的存在让波浪理论比其他市场分析形式更为客观。这些规则必须得到尊重，而指引
则能帮助我们辨别趋势。
艾略特波浪理论三大规律：
第2浪的回撤总是小于第1浪幅度的100% 。
1
第3浪在5浪结构中决不会是最短的 。
第4浪底部不会低于第1浪顶点。
5
1
5
3
3
1
3
3
4
1
1
1
4
4
2
2
2
2
错误
4
2
正确
错误
2nd waves of a motive wave can be very deep but
they cannot move beyond the start of wave 1.
正确
2
错误
正确
The end of the 4th wave must never overlap the end of wave 1.
Note that if wave 4 is a flat or a triangle the first corrective
waves could overlap wave 1 so long as the ending wave does
not.
3rd waves are usually the most powerful. They can be
shorter than 1 or 5 but they must never be the shortest
of 1,3 and 5.
艾略特波浪理论三大指南：
当第3浪延伸时，第1浪与第5浪幅度的比率往往为1
或为斐波纳契比率。
5
5
3
3
变更：第4浪的修正浪型态往往与第2浪不同。
5
5
3
100%
3
4
1
4
2
161.8%
3
2
Flat then Zig Zag
2nd waves tend to be zig zags and 4th waves tend to be
triangles or flats.
1
4
(1)
1
4
(4)
100%
2
Zig Zag then Triangle
(3)
5
1
4
1
第4浪底部通常与次一级的第4浪水平相当。
100%
2
When wave 3 is extended, wave 5 will tend to end when it equals
the size of wave 1 or a ratio such as 1.618 times the size of wave 1.
(2)
2
A 4th wave will tend to finish in the price zone of wave 4 of the
just ended wave 3.
8
(5)
(3)
5
推动浪
3
(7)
3
推动浪是周期的主要趋势，这些浪通
常走势强劲，比较直观，容易识别。
第3浪往往运动幅度增加，表明人们参
与市场的积极性强烈。如下例子展现
的是牛市推动浪，熊市的推动浪恰好
相反。
1
(3)
(5)
(8)
1
4
(3)
(4)
4
(5)
5
(9)
2
(1)
(6)
(1)
(1)
2
(4)
(4)
(2)
(2)
终结楔形
(2)
延伸（九浪）
延伸
Extensions occur when one of the motive waves Quite rarely an extension will occur where
is prolonged and subdivides into amplified waves. each subdivided wave is of roughly equal
Frequently occurring in the wave 3 position,
amplitude. This results in the entire motive
normally only one wave within a motive wave will wave looking like a nine wave move.
be extended.
Also known as a rising or falling wedge, the ending
diagonal is a 5th wave that can subdivide into five
overlapping waves of 3 waves each (zigzags). It is a
sign of an exhausted trend.
(5)
(5)
5
(5)
(3)
3
(3)
(3)
(5)
5
3
1
(3)
1
4
(1)
5
3
(1)
5
(4)
1
2
(4)
3
(1)
1
4
(4)
2
4
(4)
(1)
4
(2)
2
2
(2)
引导楔形
引导楔形
(2)
扩张楔形
Added to Ellliott’s original work after
observations by Frost & Prechter, a diagonal
can also occur in the wave 1 position and
subdivides into five waves of three moves.
The leading diagonal can also subdivide into five
overlapping waves of the normal 5 motive 3
corrective waves. Divergence between price and
oscillators are normal characteristics of diagonals.
A 5th wave that subdivides into fives waves of
three. The expanding nature of the price action
points to increasing volatility that can signal the
end of a trend.
(2)
衰竭的第5浪
Sometimes the trend is so exhausted by the time
the 5th wave comes that the wave does not even
move past the wave 3 top or bottom. It is a sign
of a very tired market trend.
9
修正浪
艾略特观察到价格调整的几种形式。其中
两种形式是锯齿型和平台型，分别由三个
波浪构成。最后的C浪是推动浪，势头强劲，
主要是因为市场参与者群体恐慌心理，集
体逃出市场。这个过程清除了市场上的
“弱手”，市场走势也得以持续。第三种
形式是三角型态，包含五个波浪运动。
(B)
C
2
A
4
B
2
3
2
2
4
5
(A)
A
5
(C)
锯齿型 (5-3-5)
A sharp correction consisting of two motive
waves (A) and (C) separated by a corrective
wave (B).
B
B
4
1
A
3
C
(A)
3
4
1
1
A
B
A
1
B
(B)
C
(B)
C
5
(C)
3
C
(A)
5
(C)
平台型 （一般） (3-3-5)
平台型 （延伸） (3-3-5)
A sideways correction where wave (B)
retraces close to 100% of wave (A) followed
by a motive wave (C) sharp move.
Also known as an Irregular Flat, this is a
sideways correction where wave (B)
retraces more than 100% of wave (A)
followed by a motive wave (C) sharp move.
三角型 (3-3-3-3-3)
(B)
C
B
A
(A)
(D)
C
B
A
A
B
三角型 （对称）
4th
(D)
(B)
(C)
(E)
A
C
(C)
C
(A)
(B)
B
A
B
(D)
Triangles usually occur in the
wave
position of a motive wave and represent
periods of equilibrium between bulls and
bears. They consist of five waves A-B-C-DE each subdividing into three waves.
(E)
C
(E)
(A)
(C)
(C)
(E)
(A)
(B)
(D)
三角型（反对称）
三角型（上升）
三角型（下降）
The reverse symmetrical or expanding
triangle is relatively rare.
This pattern reflects a situation where there
is equilibrium in the price but the bulls are
increasingly gaining the upper hand
resulting in an upward break in price.
This pattern reflects a situation where there
is equilibrium in the price but the bears are
increasingly gaining the upper hand
resulting in a downward break in price.
10
B
复杂型态的修正浪
有时候修正浪会分解为一系列低分形的修
正浪，看起来更加复杂混乱，让很多刚刚
接触波浪理论的新手开始变得困惑不已，
甚至持怀疑态度。不过，这些复杂的修正
浪刚开始确实非常难以识别。这些“双重
三浪”和“三重三浪”是在市场低迷时期
区分横向、不定向、交易区间价格行为的
手段。推动浪的浪4期间人们往往深感挫败，
这个时期我们更有可能找到复杂型态的修
正浪。
A
(X)
C
(W)
B
A
B
A
C
(Y)
(X)
C
(W)
B
A
(X)
C
(Y)
B
A
C
(Z)
双重三浪
三重三浪
Double threes consist of two A-B-C corrections
labelled W and Y separated by a wave labelled as X
which is also a three wave correction.
Triple threes consist of three A-B-C corrections labelled W, Y and Z
separated by two waves labelled as X which are also three wave
corrections.
(Z)
C
例子
(X)
C
B
B
(W)
D
C
A
(Y)
C
A
B
A
B
A
A
B
E
C
A
C
(Y)
A
B
C
(X)
B
C
(X)
A
B
(W)
双重三浪 (Flat, Any Three, Triangle)
三重三浪 (Zig Zag, Any Three, Flat, Any Three, Flat)
In this example, the first A-B-C corrective wave is an expanded flat (3-3-5). That whole
correction is then labelled as (W). Wave (X) can then be any three wave correction (zig zag
or flat). Finally wave (Y) in this example is a triangle (3-3-3-3-3) which then completes the
double three correction. When can we be sure that a complex correction is unfolding? At the
wave (W) low it is possible that the entire correction is completed in an expanded flat but
when wave (X) unfolds in three waves and then declines below the B of (X) low the analyst
can be very confident that a double (or triple) three is the preferred outcome.
In this example, the first A-B-C corrective wave is a zig zag (5-3-5). That correction is then
labelled as (W). Wave (X) can then be any three wave correction (zig zag or flat). Wave (Y)
in this example is a regular flat which then completes a double three correction. There is
then another three wave correction which, when the B wave high in this example is
surpassed, can be labelled as another wave (X). Finally there is an expanded flat A-B-C to
complete the triple three complex correction.
11
 把浪2和浪4底部相连接，以浪3（或浪1）顶
部为起点划一根平行线，将得出浪5的终点 5
艾略特波浪趋势通道
5
3
4
3
1
4
 把浪A与浪B的顶部相连接，
然后以浪A的底部为起点划一
根与之平行的直线，交点将
是浪C的终点
2
1
5
B
2
 把浪1和浪3的顶部连接起来，然后以浪
2的底部为起点划一根与之平行的直线
，将得出浪4的终点
A
C
12
恒生指数中的艾略特趋势通道
Chart Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
13
斐波纳契比率
 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144
2.618
2.382
 Fibonacci number / previous (e.g: 144 / 89) = 1.618
2.236
 Inverse (1 / 1.618) = 0.618
2
 Fibonacci number / two previous (eg: 144 / 55) = 2.618
1.786
1.764
 Inverse (1 / 2.618) = 0.382
1.618
 1 – 0.618 = 0.382
1.50
 0.618 ² = 0.382
1.382
 0.618 + 0.382 = 1
1.236
1
 1 / 2 = 0.5 (midway between 0.618 and 0.382)
0.786
 Fibonacci number / three previous (e.g: 144 / 34) = 4.235
0.764
 Inverse (1 / 4.235) = 0.236
0.618
0.50
 1 – 0.236 = 0.764
0.382
 √ 0.618 = 0.786
0.236
Source: istockphoto.com
14
斐波纳契比率
 浪2通常回撤浪1的76.4% 或78.6%
 浪4通常回撤浪3的38.2%
 当浪3延伸时，浪5往往与浪1等长
 当浪5延伸时，其长度往往是浪1起点至浪3终点总长的1.618倍
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
15
延伸与回撤
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
16
多种浪数统计方式
 任何时候都同时存在两种或以上有效的浪数统计方
式
 分析师的任务是找到可能性最大的那种
 波浪结束之前都无法100%确定该波浪属于何种波浪
 但所有分析都是事后发生的
 也能让我们得出各种不同的结论
 分析是一种技巧
 实战交易又是另一种技巧
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
17
艾略特波浪的真实市场例子
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
18
艾略特波浪的真实市场例子
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
19
艾略特波浪的真实市场例子
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
20
艾略特波浪的真实市场例子
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
21
上海证券综合指数体现的艾略特波浪
Charts Source: HSBC, Bloomberg, Updata
22
结论
 艾略特波浪理论描述的是分形市场的演变
 波浪在形式上是自相似的（但在时间或深度上却并非如此）
 艾略特趋势通道以及斐波纳契延伸（和回撤）：独特且强大
 多种浪数统计提供了分析上的优势
 艾略特并不是一个交易“系统”
23
汇丰银行的技术分析
 Day Traders Support &
Resistance Levels
(Daily)
 Short Cycle Report
(Twice per Week)
 Wave Principle Letter
(Weekly)
 Trend-Wave Trading Signals
(Ad-hoc trade ideas / portfolio)
…coming soon….
 Long term Wave analysis
(Semi-Annual)
www.hsbcnet.hsbc/research
24
Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject
security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation
was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Murray Gunn
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The document is distributed in Hong Kong and Japan by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited and has been prepared for the New York office of HSBC Bank USA, National
Association. In Korea, this publication is distributed by either The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch ("HBAP SLS") or The Hongkong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch ("HBAP SEL") for the general information of professional investors specified in Article 9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act
(“FSCMA”). This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. Both HBAP SLS and HBAP SEL are regulated by the
Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea.
Each of the companies listed above (the “Participating Companies”) is a member of the HSBC Group of Companies, any member of which may trade for its own account as Principal, may have
underwritten an issue within the last 36 months or, together with its Directors, officers and employees, may have a long or short position in securities or instruments or in any related instrument mentioned
in the document. Brokerage or fees may be earned by the Participating Companies or persons associated with them in respect of any business transacted by them in all or any of the securities or
instruments referred to in this document. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch.
The information in this document is derived from sources the Participating Companies believe to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. The Participating Companies make no
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report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All US persons receiving and/or accessing this report and intending to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC
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and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further
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should contact a "Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch" representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. HSBC México, S.A.,
Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC is authorized and regulated by Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público and Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV). HSBC Bank
(Panama) S.A. is regulated by Superintendencia de Bancos de Panama. Banco HSBC Honduras S.A. is regulated by Comisión Nacional de Bancos y Seguros (CNBS). Banco HSBC Salvadoreño, S.A. is
regulated by Superintendencia del Sistema Financiero (SSF). HSBC Colombia S.A. is regulated by Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia. Banco HSBC Costa Rica S.A. is supervised by
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The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group
services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document. HSBC Bank plc is registered in England No 14259, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is
a member of the London Stock Exchange. (070905)
© Copyright. HSBC Bank plc 2011, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank plc. MICA (P) 208/04/2011 and MICA (P) 040/04/2011
26
CZH
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中国庄禾投资
China ZhuangHe Investment
中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。
由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。
Unofficial translation provided by China Zhuanghe Investment
Consulting Co., Ltd. (CZH)
中国 北京
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光华长安大厦A座307室
邮编: 100005
电话: +86 10 5911 1088
传真: +86 10 5911 1089
联系: mzhong@chinazhuanghe.com
英国 伦敦
Add: 83 Baker Street,
London, W1U 6AG,
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7034 7924
Contact: fgao@chinazhuanghe.com
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