Introduction to Game theory Presented by: George Fortetsanakis Game theory • Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, or games, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others (Myerson, 1991). • A game consists of the following elements – Players: Who participates in the game? – Strategies: What can each player do? – Payoff: What is the outcome of the game? Normal form game • Consider a simple game between two players α and β. – – • Player α has n strategies s1, s2, ..., sn. Player β has m strategies t1, t2, …, tm. Each player receives a payoff when he chooses a certain strategy. – – πα(i,j) is the payoff of player α if α chooses the strategy si and β chooses the strategy tj. πβ(i,j) is the payoff of player β if α chooses the strategy si and β chooses the strategy tj. Bi-matrix representation • Let πα and πβ be nxm matrices with entries πα(i,j) and πβ(i,j). The game in now conveniently represented using the bi-matrix notation. Example 1: Oil producing countries 1/2 • Two oil producing countries SA and IR can each produce either 2 millions or 4 millions barrels per day. – The total production level will be either 4,6, or 8 millions barrels per day. – Due to market demand the corresponding price per barrel will be $25, S17, or $12. • The cost of producing one barrel is $5. Example 1: Oil producing countries 2/2 • If a player does not know the action of the other player it is preferable to produce 4 million barrels. – Each player will end up earning 28 million dollars. • If the two players cooperate they will choose to produce 2 millions barrels each. – Each player will end up earning 40 million dollars. Example 2: Rock-Paper-Scissors 1/2 • Each player chooses among the strategies s1 = Rock, s2 = Paper, or s3 = Scissors. – Paper wins over Rock, Rock wins over Scissors and Scissors wins over Paper. • The winner gets $1 from the loser and no money is exchanged in the case of a tie. Example 2: Rock-Paper-Scissors 2/2 • Example of Zero sum game: The payoff of one player is negative of the payoff of the other player. • Best way to play: Choose any of the three strategies with probability 1/3. Mixed strategies • The best way to play the Rock, Paper, Scissors game is stochastic and it can be represented with the probability vector: – P = (pR pP pS) = (1/3, 1/3, 1/3). – This is an example of a mixed strategy. • Generalization: We consider a player that can choose among the strategies s1, s2, …, sn. We define a mixed strategy as a probability vector upon s1, s2, …, sn: n – P = (ps1, ps2, … , psn), psi ≥ 0, p i 1 si 1 Example 3: Hawk and Dove game 1/3 • A species of territorial animals engage in fights over territories. Their behavior comes in two variants. – Hawk behavior: Animals fight until either victory or injury ensues. – Dove behavior: Display hostility at first but retreat at the first sign of attack from the opponent. • We define: – υ: territory won after a fight. – w: cost of injury. Example 3: Hawk and Dove game 2/3 • We distinguish the following cases: – Two Hawks meet: If the probability to win is 1/2 the expected payoff of a Hack is υ*1/2 – w*1/2 = (υ-w)/2. – Two Doves meet: Each Dove could win with probability 1/2 thus the expected payoff of a Dove is υ/2. – A Hawk and a Dove meet: The Hawk always wins achieving a payoff υ while the Dove gains nothing. Example 3: Hawk and Dove game 3/3 • Consider a large population of N animals consisting of N1 Hawks and N2 Doves. – When an animal engages in a fight, it meets a Hawk with probability p1 = N1/N and a Dove with probability p2 = N2/N. w • Expected payoff of a Hawk = p1 2 p2 • Expected payoff of a Dove = p2 2 • The population reaches an equilibrium when p1 = w Strategies and payoffs • Consider a game in which a player can choose a strategy from the set S = {s1, s2, …, sn}. – All members of the set S are called pure strategies. – A mixed strategy is a probability vector on the elements of S. • The set of all strategies (pure and mixed) is denoted by Δ(S). – Δ(S) is convex: given two mixed strategies p and q, the convex combination ap + (1-a)q, is also a mixed strategy, ∀ a ∈[0, 1] Example on R3 • If S = {s1, s2, s3} then Δ(S) is depicted in the following diagram. Payoff function • A payoff function π : S → R assigns a value πi to each pure strategy si. We identify the function with the vector: π (1, 2 ,..., n ) Rn • If p is a mixed strategy, the payoff is a random variable whose expected value is the following: n Ep [ π] i pi π, p i 1 Best response • A strategy si ∈ S is a pure best response of the payoff π if: i max k k • A mixed strategy that is a convex combination of pure best response strategies, is also best response for π. • Formally a strategy p* is best response for the payoff π if p* maximizes <π, p> or equivalently: p* BR( π) iff π, p* max π, p p ( S ) Example on R3 • If the pure best response strategies are s2 and s3 then the set of all best responses (pure and mixed) are the following: Normal form games • A finite game in normal form can be described by the following data: • A finite set of players Γ = {γ1, γ2, … γn}. • A set of pure strategies Sγ for each player γ ∈ Γ. – The set S = x γ∈Γ Sγ is the set of strategy profiles and an element s = (sγ) γ∈Γ assigns a pure strategy to each player. • A payoff function πγ : S → R for each player γ ∈ Γ that assigns a payoff to player γ given a strategy profile s. Mixed strategy profiles • We denote by pγ a (possibly mixed) strategy for the player γ i.e. pγ ∈ Δ(Sγ). The set of mixed strategy profiles is: (S ) • An element p ∈ Δ contains the mixed strategies that are chosen by all players and is written as p = (pγ1 pγ2, …, pγn). • If p is a mixed strategy profile then the payoff of player γ is a random variable whose expected value is: Ep [ π] π (p) ... π (i ,...,i ) p i1S1 i1S n 1 n i1 , 1 ...pin , n New notation • We introduce the notation s-α to denote the pure strategy profile for all players except α, i.e. s s S • Similarly we denote by p-α the profile of mixed strategies for all players except player α, i.e. p p S Nash equilibrium • A Nash equilibrium is a strategy profile p in which no player can improve his payoff by changing his strategy given that the other players leave their own strategy unchanged. • Formally, a Nash equilibrium for the game (Γ, S, {πγ}γ ∈Γ) is a strategy profile p* ∈ Δ, such that for every γ, p*γ is a best response for the player γ given the strategy profile p-γ of the other players, i.e. (p* ) max (q , p* ), q Example: Matching pennies game 1/4 • Two children, holding a penny, independently choose which side of their coin to show. – Child 1 wins if both coins show the same side and child 2 wins otherwise. – The winner pays $1 to the loser. Example: Matching pennies game 2/4 • Child 1 chooses the mixed strategy p1 =(p1,H,p1,T)= (p, 1-p) • Child 2 chooses the mixed strategy p2 =(p2,H,p2,T)= (q, 1-q) • Expected payoff for Child 1: 1 p1 , p 2 1 (i, j ) p1,i p2, j 1* p1,H p2,H 1* p1, H p2,T 1* p1,T p2, H 1* p1,T p2,T iS1 jS 2 pq p(1 q) (1 p)q (1 p)(1 q) p(4q 2) 2q 1 • Expected payoff for Child 2: 2 p1 , p2 2 (i, j ) p1,i p2, j 1* p1, H p2,H 1* p1,H p2,T 1* p1,T p2,H 1* p1,T p2,T iS1 jS 2 pq p(1 q) (1 p)q (1 p)(1 q) q(2 4 p) 2 p 1 Example: Matching pennies game 3/4 • BR of child 1 to the mixed strategy p2 of child 2. BR1 (p 2 ) max 1 (p1 , p 2 ) max p(4q 2) 2q 1 p p • Solve the above problem using Linear programming 1 q 1 / 2 BR1 (p 2 ) 0 q 1 / 2 • BR of child 2 to the mixed strategy p1 of child 1. BR2 (p1 ) max 2 (p1 , p 2 ) max q(2 4 p) 2 p 1 q q 1 p 1 / 2 BR1 (p 2 ) 0 p 1 / 2 Example: Matching pennies game 4/4 • The NE of the game is the crossing point of BR1(p2) and BR2(p1) . – p1 =(p1,H , p1,T) = (p , 1-p) and p2 = (p2,H , p2,T) = (q , 1-q)