Chapter 8 Assessing Costs for Environmental Decision Making 1. Environmental Costs: Conceptual Issues • ___________________: the change in costs arising from policy-induced improvements in environmental quality costs after the policy is implemented – existing level of environmental expenditures 2 Modeling Incremental Costs • Find baseline TSC before policy • Find TSC after policy is implemented • Subtract baseline from new TSC – TSC can be found as area under MSC • Recall MSC = MACMKT + MCE 3 MSC and TSC of Abatement MSC = MACMKT + MCE MSC ($millions) MSC = 4 + 0.75A 4 TSC 0 A1 A (abatement %) 4 The areaModeling of the trapezoid Incremental Costs = the average of the bases x height = ½ x (19+22.75) x (25-20) = 104.375 MSC ($millions) MSC = 4 + 0.75A MSC = MACMKT + MCE 22.75 19 Incremental costs = $104.375 million 4 0 20 25 A (abatement %) 5 • Economic costs include – Explicit (or monetary) costs – Implicit (or nonmonetary) costs 6 Explicit Costs • Administrative, monitoring, and enforcement expenses incurred by the public sector plus compliance costs incurred by all sectors – Capital (or fixed) costs • Fixed spending on plant, equipment, construction… for pollution abatement – Operating (or variable) costs • Variable costs of operating and maintaining abatement processes 7 Implicit Costs • Value of nonmonetary effects that negatively affect society’s well-being – Examples: diminished product variety, time costs of searching for substitutes, reduced convenience… 8 2. Estimating Explicit Costs • Two methods – Engineering Approach – Survey Approach • Common to use a combination approach 9 Engineering Approach • Estimates abatement spending based on leastcost available technology • Relies on __________ in abatement methods • Drawbacks —difficult to use for proposed policy due to uncertainty about price movements, availability of raw materials… —likely understates true costs because it assumes all firms are cost-effective 10 Survey Approach • Derives estimated abatement expenditures from a sample of polluting sources via _________ • A more direct means to obtain abatement cost • Drawbacks – polluters have an incentive to exaggerate costs to officials to increase the probability that the proposed regulation will be rejected 11 3. Cost Classifications • By economic sector – Shows cost distribution across public and private sectors • By environmental media – Shows how costs vary across air, water, and solid waste abatement activities 12 Chapter 9 Benefit-Cost Analysis in Environmental Decision Making 1. Benefit-Cost Analysis in Practice Making ________ adjustments • Benefits and costs must be adjusted to account for how their values change over time 14 Time Adjustments • Purpose – Benefits and costs do not accrue to society at the same time – Benefits and costs often accrue in the future • Two types of adjustments a. Present value determination = Discounting • accounts for the opportunity cost of money = Adjusting for inflation b. Inflation correction =Deflating • accounts for changes in the general price level 15 a. Present Value Determination • Discounts a __________ (FV) into its _______ ______ (PV) by accounting for the opportunity cost of money (its highest valued alternative use, which is the rate of return (r) on investment) • Explains why money loaned in the present must be paid back in the future with interest O. C. of money = r = rate of return = interest rate 1. People prefer to consume now rather than later. 2. $100 could be invested to yield a 10% return. The O.C. of $100 is $10. 16 • General formula PV = FV[1/(1 + r)t] where: • [1/(1 + r)t] is the _______________ • t is number of time periods • r, the discount rate, is the only variable -called the social discount rate in public policy -should reflect the social opportunity cost of funds • PV determination is the means by which future environmental benefits and costs are adjusted r = the discount rate = the social discount rate 17 b. Inflation Correction • Adjusting for movements in the general price level – Converting a real variable today to its future nominal value to account for expected inflation • Nominal valueperiod x+t= Real valueperiod x (1 + p)t, –where p is the expected inflation rate – Converting a nominal value to its real value • Real valueperiod x = Nominal valueperiod x + t /(1 + p)t • Known as deflating 18 • Present value of benefits in real terms (PVB) over all t periods = S(bt/(1+rs)t) • bt: real benefits bt = Bt / (1+p)t • Present value of costs in real terms (PVC) over all t periods =S(ct/(1+rs)t) ct = Ct / (1+p)t • ct: real costs Adjust for inflation; then discount 19 2. Benefit-Cost Analysis in Policy • Step 1: Determine if an option is feasible • Step 2: Select from among feasible options 20 Step 1: Determining Feasibility • Use the benefit-cost ratio – If PVB/PVC > ___ option is feasible OR • Use the present value of net benefits (PVNB), which equals (PVB – PVC) – If PVNB > ____ option is feasible 21 Step 2: Select Among Feasible Options • Decision rule: To achieve allocative efficiency – Maximize PVNB = S(bt - ct)/(1+rs)t for all t periods, among all feasible alternatives • Decision rule: To achieve cost-effectiveness: – Minimize PVC = S(ct/(1+rs)t) for all t periods, among all feasible alternatives that achieve a predetermined benefit level 22 3. Reservations About the Use of Benefit-Cost Analysis • Measurement Problems – Estimation is particularly problematic due to intangibles – Implicit costs • Equity Issues – Distribution of benefits and costs may be highly skewed 23 4. Federal Government Support • Reagan’s Executive Order 12291 – Explicitly called for maximizing net benefits (allocative efficiency) and choosing the leastcost alternative (cost-effectiveness) – Detail of potential benefits and costs to be given in a Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) – Applicable to any “major rule,” i.e., a regulation expected to have an annual impact of at least $100 million 24 • Clinton’s Executive Order 12866 – Explicitly refers to adopting/proposing regulations for which benefits justify costs (allocative efficiency) and designing regulations in most cost-effective manner – Applicable to any “significant regulatory actions,” including those expected to have an annual impact of at least $100 million – Detail to be given in an Economic Analysis (EA) 25 • Bush’s Executive Order 13258 – Makes only minor amendments to Clinton’s Executive Order 12866 – Extends the use of economic criteria in policy design and evaluation through an Economic Analysis 26 5. Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA): Lead in Gasoline • Estimated incremental benefits included health effects and nonhealth effects, such as increased fuel economy • Estimated incremental costs were estimated using an engineering cost model of the refinery industry • The resulting PVNB over the 1985-1992 period (excluding blood pressure effects) was estimated to be $5.9 billion and supported the proposed new lead standard 27 Extra information: Opportunity Cost for Individuals The money we pay for a good/service is a part of its cost; The total cost of any choice is everything we must give up. 28 Opportunity Cost—What is given up when taking an action Arises from the scarcity of time or money 29 Example: In one hour, Charlie can fix 4 flat tires or type 200 words. His opportunity cost of fixing 4 flat tires is ___________. 200 words 30 The opportunity cost of any activity can be measured by the value of the best alternative to that choice. 31 Example: You are spending a couple of hours reading Chapter 1. Instead of reading, you could be doing many other things: watching TV, go shopping, earning extra money tutoring high school students… Assume that tutoring is your best alternative. The opportunity cost of reading Chapter 1 is extra money which could be earned by tutoring ________________________________________. 32 Opportunity cost includes: (a) Explicit Cost—Dollars actually paid out for a choice (b) Implicit Cost—Value (forgone income) of something (time) sacrificed when no direct payment is made 33 You are considering attending a concert. Ticket price: $35 Cost of driving and parking: $20 In order to attend the concert, you will have to take time off from your part-time job (5 hours, $6 per hour). Your opportunity cost of attending the concert = explicit cost + implicit cost = monetary cost + forgone income 34 ($35 + $20) + ($6 x 5) =________________________ =_____________ $55 + $30 =______ $85 35 Comments on “opportunity cost”: • Most accurate and complete concept of cost • The one we should use when making our decisions 36 TIME VALUE OF MONEY The idea that money available at the present time is worth more than the same amount in the future due to its potential earning capacity. This core principle of finance holds that, provided money can earn interest, any amount of money is worth more the sooner it is received. Everyone knows that money deposited in a savings account will earn interest. Because of this universal fact, we would prefer to receive money today rather than the same amount in the future. For example, assuming a 10% interest rate, $100 invested today will be worth $110 in one year ($100 multiplied by 1.10). Conversely, $110 received one year from now is 37 only worth $100 today ($110 divided by 1.10). Solving for FV: The Formula Method • After 1 year: FV1 = PV(1 + r) = $100*(1.10) = $110.00 • After 2 years: FV2 = PV(1 + r)2 = $100*(1.10)2 = $121.00 • After 3 years: FV3 = PV(1 + r)3 = $100*(1.10)3 = $133.10 38 Solving for PV: The Formula Method Solve the general FV equation for PV: PV = FVt /(1 + r)t PV = FV3 /(1 + r)3 = $133.10/(1.10)3 = $100 39