PROJECT FINANCING PROJECT APPRAISAL Satyajit Dwivedi CAB, Pune ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) PROJECTS - DEFINITION • CUTTING EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT – GITTINGER • A SET OF ACTIVITIES LARGE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE PROPER PLANNING ETC. ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) PROJECTS - DEFINITION • PROJECT IS AN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN WHICH FINANCIAL RESOURCES ARE EXPENDED TO CREATE CAPITAL ASSESTS THAT PRODUCE BENEFITS OVER A PERIOD OF TIME AND WHICH LOGICALLY LENDS ITSELF TO PLANNING, FINANCING AND IMPLEMENTING AS A UNIT. ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) CHARACTERISTICS •P – PRODUCT OF GOODS AND SERVICES •R – RESOURCES : MAN, MATERIAL, MONEY •O – ORGANISATION •J – JUSTIFICATION : SOCIAL BENEFITS, WEALTH •E – ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL VIABILITY •C – CONTINUITY: PLANNING, RESEARCH & DEV. •T – TIME BOUND IMPLEMENTATION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) WHY PROJECT APPROACH ? • Integrated approach for systematic exploitation of resources • Gives an idea of costs year by year – Helps in resources planning • Impact of investment on the stakeholders • Better judgment of administrative & organisational problems • Encourage examination of alternatives ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) ESSENCE OF PROJECT APPRAISAL • A COMPREHENSIVE & SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF ALL ASPECTS OF PROJECT • A SECOND LOOK TO THE PROJECT BY ONE NOT INVOLVED IN PRJECT FORMULATION • HIGHLIGHT THE WEAK AREAS OF THE PROJECT FOR DUE RECTIFICATION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) ESSENCE OF PROJECT APPRAISAL • AN EXERCISE FOR FUTURE ASSESSMENT • A JOINT ASSESSMENT BY THE PROMOTER & FINANCIAL INSTITUTION • ENFORCEMENT OF A TIME BOUND PROGRAMME TO AVOID DISTORTION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) TYPES OF PROJECTS * FARM SECTOR NON FARM SECTOR OTHERS ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) PROJECT CYCLE • IDENTIFICATION • FORMULATION • APPRAISAL • IMPLEMENTATION • MONITORING • EVALUATION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) IDENTIFICATION PROJECT CYCLE IMPLEMENTATAION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) APPRAISAL TECHNICAL COMMERCIAL MANAGERIAL / BORROWER ORGANISATIONAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC FINANCIAL ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL APPRAISAL • To assess the financial effect on the farmers and bank/financial institution • To asses overall return on the investment as well as return to farmer after repayment of installments • To know whether incremental benefits are attractive enough for farmer • To work out a plan that projects financial situations and sources of funds and to determine timing of investments ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) CASH FLOW STATEMENT • Cash flow prepared on an annual basis over the economic life of assets • Identify the costs and benefits • Compare incremental benefits with incremental costs • Income and expenditure pertaining to the investment alone to be reckoned • For deciding the price – price paid or received at the farm-gate to be taken • Constant price principle is applied • Interest on borrowed capital is not included ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) CASH FLOW STATEMENT CONTD.. Identification of costs: Investment: • Expenditure made before the production starts and replacement of machineries Production: • All recurring expenditure during the project life Pre-Development Income: • Pre-developmental income to be taken as cost • Cost not to be reduced with subsidy/margin ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) Identification of Benefits • • • • • • • Increase in production Cost reduction Improvement in quality Grading Prevention of loss Consumed part of production Scrap/residual value of investments ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) METHODS OF APPRAISAL Two well known methods: PAYBACK METHOD (Undiscounted) TIME ADJUSTED RATE OF RETURN (Discounted) ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) PAYBACK METHOD • LENTH OF TIME FROM BEGINNING OF THE PROJECT TILL THE INCREMENTAL BENEFITS REACHES THE CAPITAL INVESTMENT • FAILS TO CONSIDER EARNINGS AFTER THE PAYBACK PERIOD • DOES NOT CONSIDER TIMIMGS OF OCCURRENCE OF CASH INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS OF THE PROJECT ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD TAKES INTO ACCOUNT TIME VALUE OF MONEY • COSTS AND BENFITS OCCUR AT DIFFRENT TIMINGS AND IN DIFFERENT AMOUNT • DISCOUNT FACTOR IS USED TO BRING COSTS AND BENEFITS TO THEIR PRESENT VALUE • BY DISCOUNTING AT A GIVEN RATE WE OVERCOME THE TIME DIMENSION ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD DISCOUNTED MEASURES OF PROJECT WORTH • BENEFIT COST RATIO (BCR) • NET PRESENT WORTH (NPW) • ITERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR) ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) STEPS & METHODOLOGY FOR APPRAISAL • COST AND BENEFIT STREAM IN THE CASH FLOW TO BE DISCOUNTED SEPARATELY • TOTAL OF DISCOUNTED COST GIVES PRESENT WORTH OF COSTS (PWC) • TOTAL OF DISCOUNTED BENEFIT IN CASH FLOW GIVES PRESENT WORTH OF BENEFITS (PWB) ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) STEPS & METHODOLOGY FOR APPRAISAL • BENEFIT COST RATIO : RATIO OF PWB TO PWC • NET PRESENT WORTH : DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PWB AND PWC • IF BCR IS > 1 AND NPW IS +VE AT THE DISCOUNTED RATE, THEN THE PROJECT IS VIABLE ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) Benefit Cost Ratio • Year Investment cost Benefits DF @15% PW of costs ( 2x4) PW of benefits (3x4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1000 - 1.000 1000 - 1 - 400 0.870 - 348 2 - 500 0.756 - 378 3 - 500 0.658 - 329 Total 1000 1400 1000 1055 1055 :1000 1.055 : 1 BC Ratio 22 ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) Net Present Worth • Year Invest ment cost Benefits DF @15 PW of % costs ( 2x4) PW of benefits (3x4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1000 - 1.000 1000 - 1 - 400 0.870 - 348 2 - 500 0.756 - 378 3 - 500 0.658 - 329 Total 1000 1400 1000 1055 NPW 23 ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) 1055 1000 55 Net Present Worth Year Investment Benefits DF @ 20 % PW of cost costs ( 2x4) PW of benefits (3x4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1000 - 1.000 1000 - 1 - 400 0.833 - 333 2 - 500 0.694 - 347 3 - 500 0.579 - 289 Total 1000 1400 1000 969 969 1000 (-) 31 • NPW 24 ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) Internal Rate of Return • Internal Rate of Return ( IRR ) : Lower of the two discount rates (+ ) Difference between two discount rates x (NPW @ lower discount rate :- Absolute difference between NPWs at two discount rates ) • IRR= • 15 + 5 x ( multiplied by ) • 55 :- 86 ( 55+-31) • = 18 % ( 18.2 ) • IRR determined by trial and error • Represents return for resources over life of project • Earning power of money used in project IRR not estimated beyond 50% Present cut off IRR : 15% 25 ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) Appraisal of Projects- Techniquescontd. B C Ratio IRR NPW More than one More than the lending rate Equal to lending rate Lower than the lending rate Positive ( + ) One Less than one O Negative ( - ) Feasibility or otherwise of investment Feasible Marginal Not feasible Tools for decision making- No single technique for estimating project worth Could be many socio- economic factors , which are not always quantifiable 26 ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) TREATMENT OF DEPRECIATION AND INTEREST Depreciation and interest on borrowed capital not treated as cost In DCF approach; ‘return of capital’ is ensured and hence no depreciation of investment ‘return to capital’ i.e interest on investment is also ensured ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS • Studies the changes in the scenario in case either price structure or timeframe undergoes change • Studies ability adversities ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) of the project to bear REPAYMENT SCHEDULE Three issues to be seen Instalments to be fixed in relation to surplus so that sufficient is available with the farmer after repayment Period of loan to be within economic life of the assets Instalments are fixed when surplus is available ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) * THANK ACA-TM-37 (v2.2-20-Nov-10) YOU