Chapter 17 Project Management Part (a) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Elements Of Project Management • Project team – individuals from different departments within company • Matrix organization – team structure with members from different functional areas depending on skills needed • Project manager – leader of project team To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Project Planning • Statement of work – written description of goals, work & time frame of project • Activities require labor, resources & time • Precedence relationship shows sequential relationship of project activities To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Simplified Project Network 1 Construct forms 2 Pour concrete 3 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. • • • • • • • Elements Of Project Planning Define project objective(s) Identify activities Establish precedence relationships Make time estimates Determine project completion time Compare project schedule objectives Determine resource requirements to meet objective To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Project Control • Two phases – 1. planning – 2. control • Work breakdown structure (WBS) – determine subcomponents, activities & tasks To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Gantt Chart • Popular tool for project scheduling • Graph with bar for representing the time for each task • Provides visual display of project schedule • Also shows slack for activities – (amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying project) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A Gantt Chart 0 2 Month 4 6 8 10 Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work 1 3 5 7 9 Month To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. CPM/PERT • Critical Path Method (CPM) – DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956) – deterministic task times – activity-on-node network construction • Project Eval. & Review Technique (PERT) – US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton – multiple task time estimates – activity-on-arrow network construction To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. The Project Network Network consists of branches & nodes Node 1 2 3 Branch To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Network Construction • In AON, nodes represent activities & arrows show precedence relationships • In AOA, arrows represent activities & nodes are events for points in time • An event is the completion or beginning of an activity • A dummy shows precedence for two activities with same start & end nodes To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Concurrent Activities 3 Lay foundation Lay foundation 2 Dummy 3 2 Order material Incorrect precedence relationship 4 Order material Correct precedence relationship To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Network Convention: Activity-onArc (AOA) a c a c b a a c c b b b d Dummy activity To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Network Convention: Activity-onNode (AON) a b c a b a c c a c b d b To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 1 • Management Decision Systems (MDS) is a consulting company specializing in the development of decision support systems. MDS has just obtained the contract to develop a computer system to assist the management of a large company in formulating its capital expenditure plan. The project leader has developed the list of activities and immediate predecessors as shown in the table. Construct the precedence network (AOA and AON) for this problem. To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 1 Activity A B C D E F G H I J Immediate Predecessor ---------------B A B C,D B,E F,G H To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 1 - Solution Activity-On-Arc (AOA) 2 E A H 5 7 1 B 3 4 8 F D C J G 6 I To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 1 - Solution Activity-On-Node A E H J B D I C F G To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Critical Path • A path is a sequence of connected activities running from start to end node in network • The critical path is the path with the longest duration in the network • Project cannot be completed in less than the time of the critical path To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. PERT and CPM • By utilizing project planning and control techniques (such as PERT and CPM), a variety of important questions can be answered, such as: – When will the project be completed? – Which activities are most critical regarding the projects completion time? – How long can individual tasks be delayed without causing the project itself to be delayed? To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. PERT and CPM: Solution Approaches • Enumerating all Paths in the Project Network. • By Calculating Early Start, Early Finish, Late Start, Late Finish, and Total Slack. To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Example Project Network For Building A House 3 Dummy Lay foundation 0 2 1 3 Design house and obtain financing 2 1 4 Order and receive materials Build house 1 Select paint 3 6 Finish work 7 1 1 Selec t 5 carpe t To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Solution: All Possible Paths A: 1-2-3-4-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 months (36 weeks); the critical path B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 months (32 weeks) C: 1-2-4-6-7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months (32 weeks) D: 1-2-4-5-6-7 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months (28 weeks) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. End of Part (a) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 17 Project Management Part (b) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Definitions • Early Start (ES), the earliest time an activity can start • Early Finish (EF), the earliest time an activity can finish EF = ES + Activity Time To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Definitions • Late Start (LS), the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project • Late Finish (LF), the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project LS = LF – Activity Time To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Definitions • Total Slack (TS) or Slack Time is: TS = LS – ES or TS = LF – EF To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Definitions • A path is a sequence of connected activities running from start to end node in network • The Critical Path (CP) is the path with the longest duration in the network. Also, it is the path in the network along which the activities have a zero total slack value. • Project cannot be completed in less than the time of the critical path To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Computing Algorithm • Forward Pass: Calculate the Early Finish Time for Each Activity • Backward Pass: Calculate the Late Start for Each Activity • Determine the Total Slack for Each Activity • Identify the Critical Path for the project To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 2 • For the given activities and their immediate predecessors, draw the precedence diagram. Then find the early start, early finish, late start, and late finish for each activity. Also, determine the length of the critical path and the activities along the critical path. To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 2 Activity Immediate Predecessors Expected Time (Days) A -----4 B A 12 C A 3 D B 6 E B 4 F B, C 3 G D 3 H E, F 2 I G 5 J H 3 K I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 2 – Precedence Diagram (AON) B D A E C G H I K J F To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 2 – Precedence Diagram (AOA) 3 1 5 7 2 9 4 6 10 8 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 A 12 A 3 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 A 12 A 3 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 A 3 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 A 3 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES ---- 4 0 A 12 4 A 3 4 B 6 16 B 4 16 B,C 3 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 EF LS LF TS 4 16 7 22 20 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A IP ET ES EF LS LF TS A ---- 4 0 4 B A 12 4 16 C A 3 4 7 D B 6 16 22 E B 4 16 20 F B,C 3 16 or 7? G D H E,F I G J H K I, J 3 2 5 3 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 16 20 B,C 3 16 19 D 3 E,F 2 G 5 H 3 I, J 1 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES ---- 4 0 A 12 4 A 3 4 B 6 16 B 4 16 B,C 3 16 D 3 22 E,F 2 20 G 5 25 H 3 22 I, J 1 EF LS LF TS 4 16 7 22 20 19 25 22 30 25 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 16 20 B,C 3 16 19 D 3 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 G 5 25 30 H 3 22 25 I, J 1 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 2 – Precedence Diagram (AOA) 3 1 5 7 2 9 4 6 10 8 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 16 20 B,C 3 16 19 D 3 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 G 5 25 30 H 3 22 25 I, J 1 30 31 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 16 20 B,C 3 16 19 D 3 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 G 5 25 30 H 3 22 25 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 B 4 16 20 B,C 3 16 19 D 3 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 G 5 25 30 H 3 22 25 I, J 1 30 31 30 LF TS 30 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES ---- 4 0 A 12 4 A 3 4 B 6 16 B 4 16 B,C 3 16 D 3 22 E,F 2 20 G 5 25 H 3 22 I, J 1 30 EF 4 16 7 22 20 19 25 22 30 25 31 LS LF TS 25 30 27 30 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES ---- 4 0 A 12 4 A 3 4 B 6 16 B 4 16 B,C 3 16 D 3 22 E,F 2 20 G 5 25 H 3 22 I, J 1 30 EF 4 16 7 22 20 19 25 22 30 25 31 LS LF TS 25 27 25 30 27 30 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 A 3 4 7 B 6 16 22 22 B 4 16 20 25 B,C 3 16 19 25 D 3 22 25 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 25 27 G 5 25 30 25 30 H 3 22 25 27 30 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A IP ET ES EF LS LF TS A ---- 4 0 4 16, B A 12 4 16 21, or 22? C A D B E B F B,C G D H E,F I G J H K I, J 3 6 4 3 3 2 5 3 1 4 16 16 16 22 20 25 22 30 7 22 20 19 25 22 30 25 31 16 21 22 22 25 25 27 30 22 22 25 25 25 27 30 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 4 16 A 3 4 7 19 22 B 6 16 22 16 22 B 4 16 20 21 25 B,C 3 16 19 22 25 D 3 22 25 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 25 27 G 5 25 30 25 30 H 3 22 25 27 30 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 4 A 12 4 16 4 16 A 3 4 7 19 22 B 6 16 22 16 22 B 4 16 20 21 25 B,C 3 16 19 22 25 D 3 22 25 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 25 27 G 5 25 30 25 30 H 3 22 25 27 30 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF TS ---- 4 0 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 4 16 A 3 4 7 19 22 B 6 16 22 16 22 B 4 16 20 21 25 B,C 3 16 19 22 25 D 3 22 25 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 25 27 G 5 25 30 25 30 H 3 22 25 27 30 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A IP ET ES EF LS LF TS A ---- 4 0 4 0 4 4-4 =0 or 0-0 =0 B A 12 C A 3 D B 6 E B 4 F B,C 3 G D 3 H E,F 2 I G 5 J H 3 K I, J 1 4 4 16 16 16 22 20 25 22 30 16 7 22 20 19 25 22 30 25 31 4 16 19 22 16 22 21 25 22 25 22 25 25 27 25 30 27 30 30 31 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. A A B C D E F G H I J K IP ET ES EF LS LF ---- 4 0 4 0 4 A 12 4 16 4 16 A 3 4 7 19 22 B 6 16 22 16 22 B 4 16 20 21 25 B,C 3 16 19 22 25 D 3 22 25 22 25 E,F 2 20 22 25 27 G 5 25 30 25 30 H 3 22 25 27 30 I, J 1 30 31 30 31 TS 0 0 15 0 5 6 0 5 0 5 0 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. End of Part (b) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 17 Project Management Part (c) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Probabilistic Time Estimates • Reflect uncertainty of activity times • Beta distribution is used in PERT Mean (expected time): t = a + 4m + b 6 2 b a Variance: 2 = ( ) 6 Where, a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. P (time) P (time) Example Beta Distributions b a b t a t m P (time) m a m=t b To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. PERT Example Equipment testing and modification 2 Final debugging Dummy Equipment installation 1 6 System development 3 5 Manual Testing System Training 7 System changeover 9 System Testing Job training Position recruiting 4 Orientation Dummy 8 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Activity Information Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9 Time estimates (wks) a m b 6 8 10 3 6 9 1 3 5 0 0 0 2 4 12 2 3 4 3 4 5 2 2 2 3 7 11 2 4 6 0 0 0 1 4 7 1 10 13 Mean Time t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9 Variance 2 .44 1.00 .44 .00 2.78 .11 .11 .00 1.78 .44 .00 1.00 4.00 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Early And Late Times Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-5 4-5 4-8 5-7 5-8 7-8 6-9 7-9 t 8 6 3 0 5 3 4 2 7 4 0 4 9 2 0.44 1.00 0.44 0.00 2.78 0.11 0.11 0.00 1.78 0.44 0.00 1.00 4.00 ES 0 0 0 8 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 13 16 EF 8 6 3 8 13 9 7 5 16 13 13 17 25 LS 1 0 2 9 16 6 5 14 9 12 16 21 16 LF 9 6 5 9 21 9 9 16 16 16 16 25 25 TS 1 0 2 1 8 0 2 11 0 3 3 8 0 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Network With Times ES=8, EF=13 ( LS=16 LF=21 ) 2 ES=0, EF=8 (LS=1, LF=9 ) 0 ( LS=16 LF=25 ) (LS=9, LF=9 ) ES=0, EF=6 3 6 3 5 ES=6, EF=9 (LS=6, LF=9 ) ES=0, EF=3 (LS=2, LF=5 ) 4 4 ES=9, EF=13 (LS=0, LF=6 ) 3 ES=13, EF=25 ES=8, EF=8 8 1 6 5 4 ES=3, EF=7 ( LS=9, LF=16 ) 7 ( LS=12, LF=16 ) 2 ES=3, EF=5 9 ES=13, EF=25 ( LS=16 LF=25 ) ES=9, EF=13 (LS=5, LF=9 ) 7 9 4 0 ES=13, EF=13 ( LS=16 LF=16 ) 8 ( LS=14, LF=16 ) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Critical Path and Project Variance • The Length of the Critical Path: 25 • The Critical Path: 1-3, 3-5, 5-7, 7-9. • Project variance is the sum of variances on the critical path 2 13 2 35 2 57 2 2 79 1.00 0.11 1.78 4.00 6.89weeks To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Probabilistic Network Analysis Determine probability that project is completed within specified time x- Z= where = tp = project mean time = project standard deviation x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Normal Distribution Of Project Time Probability Z = tp x Time To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Probabilistic Analysis Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? 2 6.89 weeks 6.89 2.62 weeks x 30 25 Z 191 . 2.62 P( Z 191 . ) 0.9719 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Determining Probability From Z Value Z .. . 0.00 .. . 0.01 .. . ... 1.9 0.4713 0.4719 … .. . 0.09 0.4767 P( x<= 30 weeks) = 0.9719 = 25 x = 30 Time (weeks) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? 22 25 3 1.14 2.62 2.62 P( Z 1.14) 0.1271 Z P( x<= 22 weeks) =0.1271 x = 22 = 25 Time (weeks) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Project Crashing • Crashing is reducing project time by expending additional resources • Crash time is an amount of time an activity is reduced • Crash cost is the cost of reducing the activity time • Goal is to reduce project duration at minimum cost To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Time-Cost Relationship • Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases • Indirect costs increase as project duration increases • Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Time-Cost Tradeoffs Minimum cost = optimal project time Cost ($) Total cost Indirect cost Direct cost Crashing Time Project Duration To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Time-Cost Trade-offs: Crashing • Trial and Error Approach for small size problems (which is described and used for Problem 3) • Mathematical Procedures (for example, Linear Programming Formulation) for large size problems To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Advantages of PERT/CPM • Forces managers to organize • Provides graphic display of activities JAN FEB MAR APR • Identifies MAY JUN Build A A Done – Critical activities Build B B Done – Slack activities Build C C Done Build D On time! Ship To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Limitations of PERT/CPM • Important activities may be omitted • Precedence relationships may not be correct • Estimates may include a fudge factor 200 weeks 4 2 1 5 6 3 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 • Office Automation, Inc., has developed a proposal for introducing a new computerized office system that will improve word processing and interoffice communications for a particular company. Contained in the proposal is a list of activities that must be accomplished in order to complete the new office system project. Information about the activities is shown below. Times are in weeks and costs are in thousands of dollars. To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 Activity A: Plan needs Immediate Normal Predecessor Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost --- 10 8 30 70 B: Order equipment A 8 6 120 150 C: Install equipment B 10 7 100 160 D: Set up training lab A 7 6 40 50 E: Training course D 10 8 50 75 C, E 3 3 60 --- F: Testing system To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 • Show the network for the project. • Develop the activity schedule for the project. • What are the critical path activities and what is the expected project completion date? • Assume that the company wishes to complete the project in 26 weeks. What crashing decisions would be recommended in order to meet the completion date at least possible cost. Work through the network and attempt to make crashing decisions. • Develop an activity schedule for the crashed project. • What is the added project cost to meet the 26-week completion date? To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution Project Network - AON B C A F D E To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution Activity Schedule Based on Normal Time Immediate Normal Early Early Late Late Total Activity Predecessor Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack A B C D E F --A B A D C, E 10 8 10 7 10 3 0 10 18 10 17 28 10 18 28 17 27 31 0 10 18 11 18 28 10 18 28 18 28 31 0 0 0 1 1 0 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution • Based on the activity schedule, it can be determined that the critical path is along activities A-B-C-F and the length of the critical path is 31 weeks. • Hence, the Expected Project Completion Date is in 31 weeks To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution • Also, from the project network it can easily be seen that there are 2 Paths in the network. They are: – Path 1: A-B-C-F with a length of 31 weeks – Path 2: A-D-E-F with a length of 30 weeks • How do we get to complete the project in 26 weeks? To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution • Determine the potential Crash Cost per time period (weeks) for each activity • Crash Cost per time period for activity i = Ki = Total Crash Cost – Total Normal Cost Normal Time – Crash Time To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution Immediate Normal Crash Normal Crash Maximum Crash Activity Predecessor Time Time Cost Cost Crash Cost per Weeks Weeks $ $ Weeks week A B C D E F --A B A D C, E 10 8 10 7 10 3 8 6 7 6 8 3 30 70 120 150 100 160 40 50 50 75 60 --- 2 2 3 1 2 --- 20 15 20 10 12.5 --- To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution • First crash activities on the Critical Path • Note that by crashing critical path activities will lead to other paths with the same completion time (and thus will also become critical) To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution 1. Activity B has the lowest crash cost on the critical path, A-B-C-F. Crash activity B by 1 week since the maximum crash weeks for Activity B are 2 weeks. The length of critical path = 30 weeks. Added cost = $15,000. 2. Now, there are two critical paths. Reduce a common activity or a combination of activities from each path, which ever is the lowest. To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution 3. Next, reduce the common activity to both paths, activity A by 2 weeks (one week at a time). The length of the critical path = 28. Added cost = $20,000 + $20,000 4. Next, reduce activities B and D by 1 week each. The length of the critical path = 27. Added cost = $15,000 + $10,000 5. Next, reduce activities C and E by 1 week each. The length of the critical path = 26. Added cost = $20,000 + $12,500 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution 6. The desired completion time for the project of 26 weeks has been achieved. 7. The total added cost = $112,500 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. Problem 3 - Solution Revised Activity Schedule based on Crashing Activity A B C D E F Early Early Late Late Total Start Finish Start Finish Slack 0 8 14 8 14 23 8 14 23 14 23 26 0 8 14 8 14 23 8 14 23 14 23 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. THE END To Accompany Russell and Taylor, Operations Management, 4th Edition, 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.