Ch. 4: Resources, Comparative Advantage, and Income Distribution 1 Evolution of Trade Theories Adam Smith used differences in labor productivity to explain why trade occurs. Ricardo extended the productivity differences idea to show why trade benefits both the more productive and the less productive countries. 2 Evolution of Trade Theories While trade is partly explained by differences in labor productivity, it also can be explained by differences in resources across countries. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory argues that international differences in labor, labor skills, physical capital or land (factors of production) create productive differences that explain why trade occurs. 3 Evolution of Trade Theories Heckscher-Ohlin theory allows for all the factors to be freely employed in every industry. H-O theory is also called “factor-proportions” theory because it allows different proportions of K/L ratio to be used in the production process. As new theories are developed, old theories become a special case of the new theory. 4 Neoclassical Production In H-O, labor and capital can be substituted to produce a constant unit of output. Each firm will try produce the highest output with given amount of outlay by changing the proportions of capital and labor used. Typically, technologies in different industries employ different ratios of capital and labor in spite of the fact that the prices of inputs they face are the same. 5 Typical Firm Behavior Terrain Terrain Q=3 w/r Q=2 Q=3 Q=2 Q=1 Q=1 FOOD Labor CLOTH Labor 6 Factor Prices, Factor Proportions In the previous example, the ratio of wages to rental rate of territory is the same for all the firms in clothing and food. Firms in food industry use a higher land/labor ratio than firms in clothing. aLC /aTC > aLF/aTF Or aLC /aLF > aTC /aTF Considering the total resources used in each industry, cloth production is labor intensive and food production is land intensive if LC /TC > LF /TF. 7 Output Prices Assuming that all the firms operate in competitive environment, their unit cost will be equal to the price they charge. 8 Increase in r (Cost of Land) T T w/r1 Q=3 w/r2 Q=3 Q=1 Q=1 FOOD L CLOTH 9 L Increase in r (Cost of Land) All the firms react to an increase in cost of land the same way: substitute more labor for capital. Because land is the intensive factor in food, higher cost of land will raise the price of food compared to cloth. Or labor is relatively cheaper so cloth will be relatively cheaper. 10 Expansion Path T T Q=3 Q=2 Q=3 Q=2 Q=1 Q=1 FOOD L CLOTH 11 L PPF If more food is to be produced, both land and labor will be taken away from cloth. First, excess land will be taken, resulting in a small drop of cloth production. As more and more resources are taken away, opportunity cost of food (cloth sacrificed) rises. 12 PPF 13 What to Produce PPF shows options given “technology.” Any point on the PPF is efficient. How to choose “the” point? What is the meaning of the slope of PPF? How to draw a budget line and what does the slope show? 14 PPF FOOD PC/PF Y/PF Y/PC CLOTH 15 Change in r If r increases, w/r falls. Both industries prefer to lower their Land/Labor ratios (increase L/T ratios). Since food is land intensive, PF will go up. What happened to price ratios? Where are we on the PPF? Why did Food production INCREASE? 16 Change in r Why did Food production INCREASE? What happens to the Marginal Product of Labor if less Land is used (remember Land/Labor (T/L) ratios fell)? What happens to the Marginal Product of Land if more labor is employed? What happens to the earnings of labor and landowners? 17 Allocation of Land and Labor Given the prices of cloth and food, the competitive economy will choose the point on the PPF where the opportunity cost of cloth in terms of food is Pc/Pf. Given the price ratios, the relative factor prices are also determined, indicating a specific choice of land/labor ratio for each industry. 18 Allocation of Labor and Land L 0 Labor in Cloth T C l o t h F o o d The slope is the Land/Labor ratio for Food. T 0 Labor in Food L 19 Increase in Land L 0 Labor in Cloth T C L O T H F O O D T 0 Labor in Food L 20 Increase in Land More land in this country will make food industry employ both more labor and land. If prices of food relative to cloth remained the same, keeping factor prices and factor proportions the same, food sector (landintensive) will expand and cloth sector (labor-intensive) will shrink. 21 Increase in Land in PPF C F 22 Relative Product Prices and Relative Factor Prices A sudden increase in land, ceteris paribus, will make land relatively cheaper than labor. More land will make labor more productive and hence raise wages. Higher w/r ratio will raise the prices of cloth relative to food. Income distribution will change in favor of labor. 23 Two Countries C C Foreign Home F F Given the same prices, which country produces RELATIVELY more cloth and which one relatively more food? As a result, which country’s relative supply curve (F/C) would be further to the right? Price is (PF/PC). 24 Supply, Demand, Prices Pf/Pc Home Foreign F/C If tastes and incomes were the same in both countries, price of food would be relatively higher in Home and relatively lower in Foreign. Home would export cloth and Foreign would export food. Free trade would move Pf/Pc between the two price levels. Home is relatively abundant in labor and Foreign is relatively abundant in land. 25 Price Lines in Both Countries C C Foreign Home F F The country at left has a lower Pf/Pc than the country at right. The slope of the tangent line is equal to Pf/Pc. 26 Price Lines with Trade C C Foreign Home F F The world price changes the production in both countries. The trade triangle should match both countries if these are the only countries trading. 27 Trade in the Heckscher-Ohlin Model 28 Price Changes Free trade will raise the price of the product produced by the abundant factor and will lower the price of the product produced by the scarce factor. The country abundant in land sees an increase in the price of food and a drop in the price of cloth. The country abundant in labor sees an increase in the price of cloth and a drop in the price of food. 29 Income Distribution Owners of land in the land-abundant country will benefit. Labor in the land-abundant country will lose. Owners of land in the cloth specialized country will lose. Labor in the cloth specialized country will benefit. 30 Factor Price Equalization There is a one-to-one correspondence between w/r and Pc/Pf. As Pc/Pf becomes the same for both countries, so should w/r. The country that exports the product with the abundant factor sees a higher return for that factor. Before trade, abundant factor got the lower return. Scarce factor got the higher return before trade and the lower return after trade. 31 Factor Price Equalization Trade makes two separate markets become one. The country with the relatively abundant labor exports labor-intensive products. It is similar to exporting labor itself. The country with the relatively abundant land, exports land-intensive goods. The unified market makes the prices of labor and capital in both countries to converge. 32 Testing Factor Price Equalization Contrary to the prediction of the model, factor prices vary across the countries. Should we scrap the model? What characteristics of the model lead to equalization? Both countries produce both goods. Technologies in both countries are the same. Prices of products become the same in both countries. 33 Divergent Resource Endowments Convergence happens when resource endowments are similar and the relative differences force each country to move more toward the specializing in abundant factor using product. If endowments are very divergent, each country would already specialize in a different product and trade would not equalize the factor prices. Factor prices need not be equalized between countries with radically different ratios of capital to labor or of skilled to unskilled labor. 34 Different Technologies of Production A country with a far superior technology in both products will have higher prices of both factors compared with the country with low technology. Factor price convergence will not take place if technologies are very different. 35 Convergence of Prices If prices in both countries do not become the same, factor prices will not, either. Non-traded goods, transportation costs, tariffs, quotas all keep prices from converging. 36 Short vs. Long Run The model says wages and land rents will be the same no matter which industry employs them. This is the long-run expectation. In the short run, both factors in the expanding industry may benefit and those in the shrinking industry suffer (Pc/Pf changes). Politics is a short run phenomenon. 37 Factor Price Equalization? Real wages for unskilled labor (10th percentile of workers) rose only 0.2% between 1979 and 2001. Real wages for highly skilled labor (95th percentile of workers) rose 29%. College premium was 21% in 1979; 44% in 2002. If US exports highly skilled labor products and imports unskilled labor products, then H-O theory prediction seems to hold. 38 Factor Price Equalization Does Not Apply to US Experience H-O theory predicts that prices of goods will change before prices of factors. Goods that are exported will experience a rise in price. Studies fail to show any increase in the prices of skill-intensive products. 39 Factor Price Equalization Does Not Apply to US Experience H-O says the price of the abundant factor will increase and the price of the scarce factor will decrease. There is no indication that the return to skilled labor in NIEs has been falling; in fact, it has been increasing. 40 Factor Price Equalization Does Not Apply to US Experience US trade with LDCs is very small percentage of GDP. In 1990, manufactured imports of US from LDCs was under 2% of GDP. Labor content of both the exports and imports constitute a very small percent of total labor; it is not possible to have such a large impact on the wages. 41 What Is Responsible for the GAP? Technological change. 42 Trade and Benefits Does trade increase the total consumption of the people in a country? How do you show this in a PPF and price line? Ideally, every one can be better off. 43 Trade and Benefits Different groups, different industries benefit and lose from trade. But wages and rents will be the same across the industries in the long run, helping exporters and hurting importers. Is there enough surplus to make both the exporters and importers better off? 44 Trade and Income Distribution There is a political bias in trade politics: potential losers from trade are better politically organized than the winners from trade. Losses are usually concentrated among a few, but gains are usually dispersed among many. Each of you pays about $8/year to restrict imports of sugar, and the total cost of this policy is about $2 billion/year. The benefits of this program total about $1 billion, but this amount goes to relatively few sugar producers. 45 Unemployment? How much unemployment can be traced back to trade? • • • From 1996 to 2008, only about 2.5% of involuntary displacements stemmed from import competition or plants moved overseas. Unemployment is primarily a macroeconomic problem that rises during recessions. The best way to reduce unemployment is by adopting macroeconomic policies to help the economy recover, not by adopting trade protection. 46 Import Penetration and Unemployment 47 Leontief Paradox Wassily Leontief (Nobel 1973) tried to test Hecksher-Ohlin theorem. H-O says countries export products embodying the abundant factor. Leontief pioneered in creating inputoutput tables; he had the data on inputs used for outputs. 48 K and L Required to Produce $1 million Proceedings of American Philosophical Society , 1953 (Leontief's first article) All industries; 1947 input-output table; 1947 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $2,550,780 $3,091,339 L (Man-years) 182 170 K/L $14,015 $18,184 1.297 Review of Economics and Statistics , 1956 (Leontief's second article) All industries; 1947 input-output table; 1951 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $2,256,780 $2,303,400 L (Man-years) 174 168 K/L $12,977 $13,726 1.058 Without 19 nat. res. ind.; 1947 input-output table; 1947 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $2,274,700 $1,853,900 L (Man-years) 225 200 K/L $10,129 $9,287 0.917 Without 19 nat. res. ind.; 1947 input-output table; 1951 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $2,577,100 $2,092,700 L (Man-years) 224 207 K/L $11,493 $10,127 0.881 Excluding agriculture; 1947 input-output table; 1947 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $1,501,500 $1,780,000 L (Man-years) 166 157 K/L $9,048 $11,306 1.250 Excluding agriculture; 1947 input-output table; 1951 composition of trade Exports Import Repl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) 1562200 1868200 L (Man-years) 169 151 K/L 9256 12412 1.341 49 K and L Required to Produce $1 million of US Exports and Import Replacements Baldwin, R., American Economic Review (March 1971) All industries; 1958 input-output table; 1962 composition of trade Ex ports Import Re pl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $1,876,000 $2,132,000 L (Man-years) 131 119 K/L $14,321 $17,916 1.251 Excluding nat. res.; 1958 input-output table; 1962 composition of trade Ex ports Import Re pl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $1,223,000 $1,259,000 L (Man-years) 107 106 K/L $11,430 $11,877 1.039 Excluding agriculture; 1958 input-output table; 1962 composition of trade Ex ports Import Re pl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $1,403,000 $1,806,000 L (Man-years) 109 100 K/L $12,872 $18,060 1.403 Stern and Maskus, Journal of International Economics, (May 1981) All industries; 1972 input-output table; 1972 composition of trade Ex ports Import Re pl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $1,478,000 $1,368,200 L (Man-years) 99 96 K/L $14,929 $14,250 0.955 Excluding nat. res.; 1972 input-output table; 1972 composition of trade Ex ports Import Re pl A=(K/L)m/(K/L)x K (1947 $) $455,000 $497,000 L (Man-years) 24 29 K/L $18,958 $17,138 0.904 50 Explaining Leontief Paradox? When exports and imports are tested according to labor skills, the US is seen to export more skilled labor intensive products. New products usually are more high-skill labor-intensive than mature manufacturing, which are capital-intensive. Baldwin’s numbers: Education per worker 9.9 years for imports, 10.1 for exports. Engineers and scientists 1.89% for imports, 2.55% for exports. 51 Further Tests H-O predicts that a country will export its abundant factor. In general, exports of countries should include products embodied with their abundant factor. If a country’s endowment as a share of world endowment is compared to its income as a share of world income, then it will export the factor if the ratio is greater than one. 52 H-O Test Using Global Data Factor of Production Capital Labor Professionals Managers Clerical workers Salespeople Service workers Agricultural workers Production workers Arable land Pasture land Forest Predictive Success 52% 67% 78% 22% 59% 67% 67% 63% 70% 70% 52% 70% Source: H.P. Bowen, E.L. Leamer, and L. Sveikauskas, Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory,” American EconomicReview 77 (December 1987), pp. 791-809. 53 H-O Tests of North-South Trade When trade between two countries with very different endowments, like North and South, is evaluated, it conforms to the predictions of H-O. However, the trade between the developed countries and the LDCs constitute 10% of world trade. 54 Technological Differences The basic H-O relies on differences on factor endowments and assumes same technology available to all countries. For example, that would mean that China would export its labor to US much more than the numbers indicate. If technologies differ, then US might have an “effective” labor force much larger than the raw data indicates. US has ¼ of world income but 1/20 of world labor. China has 1/35 of world income but 1/7 of world labor. 55 Success of H-O Empirical studies have given less than full support to H-O. We need to utilize some other model to explain trade patterns between similar countries. If H-O can predict trade patterns relatively well between North and South, then we can use the income distributional predictions in that case, as well. 56 Movements in Factors of Production 4-57 Movements in factors of production include labor migration the transfer of financial assets through international borrowing and lending transactions of multinational corporations involving direct ownership of foreign firms Like movements of goods and services (trade), movements of factors of production are politically sensitive and are often restricted. International Labor Mobility Why does labor migrate and what effects does labor migration cause? Workers migrate to wherever wages are highest. Consider movement of labor across countries instead of across sectors. Suppose two countries produce one non-traded good (food) using two factors of production: 4-58 Land cannot move across countries but labor can. International Labor Mobility (cont.) Figure 4-13 finds the equilibrium wage and labor allocation with migration across countries. Start with OL1 workers in Home earning a lower real wage (point C) than the L1O* workers in Foreign (point B). 4-59 Similar to how Figure 4-4 determined the equilibrium allocation of labor between sectors. Lower wage due to less land per worker (lower productivity). Workers in the home country want to migrate to the foreign country where they can earn more. International Labor Mobility (cont.) If no obstacles to labor migration exist, workers move from Home to Foreign until the purchasing power of wages is equal across countries (point A), with OL2 workers in Home and L2O* workers in Foreign. Emigration from Home decreases the supply of labor and raises real wage of the workers who remain there. Workers who start in the Home country earn more due to emigration regardless if they are among those who leave. Immigration into Foreign increases the supply of labor and decreases the real wage there. Wages do not actually equalize, due to barriers to migration such as policies restricting immigration and natural reluctance to move. 4-60 Fig. 4-13: Causes and Effects of International Labor Mobility 4-61 International Labor Mobility (cont.) 4-62 Labor migration increases world output. The value of foreign output rises by the area under its MPL* curve from L1 to L2 The value of domestic output falls by the area under its MPL curve from L2 to L1 World output rises because labor moves to where it is more productive (where wages are higher). The value of world output is maximized when the marginal productivity of labor is the same across countries. International Labor Mobility (cont.) 4-63 Workers initially in Home benefit while workers in Foreign are hurt by inflows of other workers. Landowners in Foreign gain from the inflow of workers decreasing real wages and increasing output. Landowners in Home are hurt by the outflow of workers increasing real wages and decreasing output. International Labor Mobility (cont.) 4-64 Does migration lead to the wage changes predicted? Table 4-1 shows that real wages in 1870 were much higher in destination countries than in origin countries. Up until the eve of World War I in 1913, wages rose faster in origin countries than in destination countries (except Canada). Migration moved the world toward more equalized wages. Table 4-1 4-65 International Labor Mobility (cont.) In the early 20th century, share of immigrants in the U.S. increased dramatically. Tight restrictions on immigration imposed in the 1920s. 4-66 Immigrants were a minor force in the U.S. by the 1960s. New wave of immigration began around 1970. Vast immigration from Eastern and Southern Europe. Mostly from Latin America and Asia. As of 2006, 15.3% of the U.S. labor force foreign-born. Fig. 4-14: Immigrants as a Percentage of the U.S. Population 4-67 Immigration and the U.S. Economy 4-68 The largest increase in recent immigration occurred among workers with the lowest education levels, making less educated workers more abundant. possibly reduced wages for native-born workers with low education levels while raising wages for the more educated widening wage gap between less educated workers and highly educated workers. Summary International trade often has strong effects on the distribution of income within countries -- produces losers as well as winners. Income distribution effects arise for two reasons: 1. 2. 4-69 Factors of production cannot move costlessly and quickly from one industry to another. Changes in an economy’s output mix have differential effects on the demand for different factors of production. Summary (cont.) International trade affects the distribution of income in the specific factors model. 3. 4-70 Factors specific to export sectors in each country gain from trade, while factors specific to import-competing sectors lose. Mobile factors that can work in either sector may either gain or lose. Summary (cont.) 4. 5. 6. 4-71 Trade nonetheless produces overall gains in the sense that those who gain could in principle compensate those who lose while still remaining better off than before. Most economists would prefer to address the problem of income distribution directly, rather than by restricting trade. Those hurt by trade are often better organized than those who gain, causing trade restrictions to be adopted. Summary (cont.) Labor migrates to countries with higher labor productivity and higher real wages, where labor is scarce. 7. 8. 4-72 Real wages fall due to immigration and rise due to emigration. World output increases. Real wages across countries are far from equal due to differences in technology and due to immigration barriers.