Market
situation and
perspectives
Carlos MARTÍN ÓVILO
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
Dairy Press Tour 2013
Charmey - 27.10.2013
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
2
Milk Quota system
•
Introduced in 1984, for 8 years.
•
Extended in 1992 and 1999 reforms.
•
CAP 2003 reform: Quota until 1 April 2015.
•
Health Check 2008: soft landing (5 x 1% in 2009 – 2013).
3
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
4
EU competitiveness - Milk
5
Increasing demand:
The main driver in
the dairy outlook
6
EU dairy exports
(in 1 000 t)
7
EU world market share
8
EU exports of dairy products (in milk equivalent) in % of EU Milk production
12%
10.6%
10.2%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.8%
10.8%
11.0%
11.1%
11%
10.3%
10.1%
10%
9.5%
9.0%
9%
8%
7.7%
7%
6%
2 009
2 010
2 011
2012e
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
2021f
2022f
Source : DG AGRI Medium Term Outlook, Eurostat (Comext)
9
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
10
Milk production below quota
Evolution of EU Milk deliveries and Direct sales versus quota
160 000
155 000
Fat correction
Total EU Direct Sales
150 000
Total EU Deliveries (not incl. fat correction)
145 000
Total Quota (Deliveries + Direct Sales)
135 000
130 000
139 669
140 480
137 623
134 464
135 191
135 047
132 825
132 602
122 651
115 948
115 851
115 462
114 574
114 765
114 061
114 244
113 876
113 879
125 000
1000 Tonnes
140 000
120 000
115 000
110 000
105 000
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
100 000
11
Milk production versus quota in the
various MS
EU Deliveries Overshoot/Under use (in % of quota)
IT
LU ES
IE
BE LV
EE FR
SI
CZ
PT UK
FI
MT SK
LT
SE HU EL RO BG
+ 0.1%
+ 0.1%
+ 5%
- 30%
- 35%
- 40%
in % of Available Quantity
- 25%
- 45%
- 47.3%
- 50%
- 55%
- 55.3%
- 23.7%
- 21.7%
- 20%
- 21.0%
- 17.5%
- 14.3%
- 13.8%
- 11.8%
- 7.4%
- 3.6%
- 3.6%
- 3.0%
- 2.9%
- 2.3%
- 6.5%
- 10.1%
- 15%
- 26.5%
2012/13
- 10%
- 19.9%
2011/12
- 5%
- 11.7%
2010/11
- 0.4%
- 0%
- 0.4%
+ 0.4%
+ 10%
+ 0.8%
+ 3.6%
AT CY DK PL DE NL
- 60%
- 65%
12
Milk production prospects versus
quota
13
EU milk production
14
Cheese prospects
15
SMP prospects
16
Butter prospects
17
WMP prospects
18
CAP 2020 for milk
political deal
1.
Milk quota expiry on 31 March 2015 confirmed
2.
Public intervention
•
for butter and SMP
•
from 1 March until 31 September each year
•
up to 50 000 t for butter at a fixed price of 221.75 €/100 kg
•
up to 109 000 t for SMP at a fixed price of 169.80 €/100 kg
•
Automatic tendering if and when ceilings reached
3.
Private storage aid possible for butter, SMP and certain
PDO/PGI cheeses, if necessary
4.
Takeover of the Milk Package
5.
Exceptional measures against market disturbance, animal
diseases, loss of consumer confidence,
6.
Minor unused schemes abolished (milk powder for feed and
skimmed milk for casein)
7.
Reformed direct payments (including possibility for coupled
payments) & rural development policy
19
Conclusions
• No shocks expected in terms of
production at the end of quotas in 2015
• Increasing share of EU milk exported
• Remain competitive at international level
will be essential for internal market
balance
20
Information on milk market:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/milk/index_en.htm
PAC 2020:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm
Conference "The EU dairy sector: developing beyond 2015":
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/events/dairy-conference2013_en.htm
Thank you for your attention !