Theodore Mitrakos Bank of Greece & Panos Tsakloglou Athens University of Economics and Business & IZA INEQUALITY, POVERY AND WELFARE IN GREECE: FROM THE RESTORATION OF DEMOCRACY TO THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS Bank of Greece Conference on “Social policies and social cohesion in Greece in light of the current economic crisis” Athens, 13 May 2011 Introduction • Distributional issues almost always in the centre of Greek public discourse. • In recent years, many empirical investigations • However, many assertions made in the public discourse, not substantiated, sometimes contradictory and/or not supported by the findings of empirical studies – Greek society characterized by acute class differences / Greek society dominated by middle classes – The poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer – The “new poor” • Objective of the paper: To provide a detailed picture of structure and inter-temporal trends in inequality and poverty until the current crisis, using all available HBSs Data • Household Budget Surveys (HBSs): Provide detail information on consumption expenditures, disposable income, socio-demographic characteristics of the population, material conditions of living, etc. • Only seven with national coverage: 1974, 1982, 1988, 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008 • Large sample; Quality of the data • Consumption of own production (incl. imputed rent) • Results using both distributions (consumption expenditure, income). Usually, not different • Comparisons with ECHP / EU-SILC Methodology • Distributions of persons • Equivalence scales • Inequality indices: Gini, Atkinson (ε=0.5 & ε=2.0) Decomposition MLD (+ Theil + Varlog) • Poverty indices: Poverty Rate, Poverty Gap, FGT2 • Welfare indicator: w=μ(1-I) Decile shares Income 30 30 25 25 1974 1974 20 1982 1988 15 1994 1999 2004 10 20 Income share Cons. expend. share Consumption Expenditure 1982 1988 1994 15 1999 2004 10 2008 2008 5 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Decile 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 Decile 7 8 9 10 Inequality changes in decile shares Consumption Expenditure 2,0 1,0 0,0 -1,0 1974-82 1982-88 1988-94 1994-99 1999-2004 2004-08 1999-2004 2004-08 -2,0 -3,0 -4,0 Income 2,0 0,0 -2,0 -4,0 -6,0 1974-82 1982-88 1988-94 1994-99 Lorenz curves Consumption Expenditure Income 100 100 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 Consumption share 80 70 60 50 80 70 40 60 50 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 10 20 30 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 90 Income share 90 40 50 60 Population share 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Population share 70 80 90 100 Lorenz dominance and Lorenz curve differences Consumption Expenditure 6,0 1982 + 1988 + = 1994 + = 5,0 4,0 1974 xx 1982 3,0 1999 + = x - 2004 + + + + + 2008 + + + + + 1988 1994 1999 2,0 2004 2008 1,0 xx 0,0 0 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -1,0 Income 1982 + 1988 + = 1994 + xx 1999 2004 2008 + + + 8,00 + + + 7,00 6,00 xx + + + 1974 5,00 1982 + + + 1988 4,00 1994 3,00 + + 1999 2004 2,00 + 2008 1,00 0,00 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 0 -1,00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Inter-temporal trends in inequality indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) Consumption Expenditure Income 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 1974 1982 1988 Gini 1994 Atkinson (ε=0.5) 1999 2004 Atkinson (ε=2.0) 2008 1974 1982 1988 Gini 1994 Atkinson (ε=0.5) 1999 2004 Atkinson (ε=2.0) 2008 Inter-temporal trends in inequality Gini Index, 1994-2009 (HBSs and ECHP / EU-SILC) Distribution of disposable income 36 35 34 35,0 34,0 34,7 34,0 33,0 33,4 33 32,5 32 31 ECHP / EU-SILC 30 HBS Disposable income 31,0 29 28 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Structure of inequality Share of “Between groups” component, Mean Log Deviation Distribution of consumption expenditure Grouping criterion Groups 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 Region 11 14.0 8.2 7.4 6.9 7.2 6.2 6.2 Locality 4 13.3 9.8 10.2 6.5 10.0 6.8 7.1 HH type 9 3.7 5.6 6.8 6.4 7.2 7.0 5.8 Occupational group HH Head 9 17.0 12.5 13.5 11.5 13.8 15.8 13.9 Educational group HH Head 5 25.2 17.7 20.8 21.0 19.9 21.1 24.4 Multivariate decomposition 109 33.3 26.4 30.5 28.8 32.8 29.4 32.9 Trend decomposition of inequality (1974-2008) Grouping criterion Contribution of: Consumption expend. Mean Theil Varlog log dev. Theil Income Mean log dev. Varlog Locality Changes “within groups” Changes in population shares Changes “between groups” 74.7 6.6 18.7 74.8 5.9 19.2 72.8 9.3 18.0 82.4 -0.4 17.9 82.4 -0.3 17.9 73.0 2.2 24.8 102.9 -6.3 3.4 103.9 -6.7 2.7 101.8 -9.6 7.7 102.8 -6.1 3.3 101.7 -5.4 3.6 96.9 -4.4 7.4 88.0 -8.3 20.2 90.9 -12.5 21.6 91.9 -12.2 20.3 80.8 -10.6 29.8 88.3 -15.9 27.5 93.9 -19.4 25.6 64.4 20.0 15.5 67.1 -7.5 40.4 65.8 -7.0 41.2 70.6 6.7 22.7 70.4 -18.6 48.2 67.5 -21.3 53.8 -36.6 -38.1 -39.2 -45.6 -45.6 -46.7 HH type Changes “within groups” Changes in population shares Changes “between groups” Occupational group of HH Head Changes “within groups” Changes in population shares Changes “between groups” Educational group of HH Head Changes “within groups” Changes in population shares Changes “between groups” Proportional change in inequality Inter-temporal trends in poverty indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) – relative poverty lines Consumption Expenditure Income 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 1974 1982 Poverty rate 1988 1994 Poverty gap 1999 2004 2008 Foster et al (a=2) 0 1974 1982 Poverty rate 1988 1994 Poverty gap 1999 2004 2008 Foster et al (a=2) Inter-temporal trends in poverty indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) – fixed (1999) poverty line Consumption Expenditure Income 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 1974 0 1982 Poverty rate 1988 1994 Poverty gap 1999 2004 2008 Foster et al (a=2) 1974 1982 Poverty rate 1988 1994 Poverty gap 1999 2004 2008 Foster et al (a=2) Inter-temporal trends in relative poverty Poverty rate, 1994-2009 (HBSs and ECHP / EU-SILC) Distribution of disposable income 23 22 22,0 21,3 21 21,0 20,1 20,0 20 20,0 19,8 19 18 ECHP-EUSILC 17 HBS Disposable income 16,8 16 15 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Poverty risk groups (consumption expenditure, FGT2) Consumption expenditure Income Population Group 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 Members of rural HHs 1.92 1.75 1.86 1.88 2.09 2.19 2.18 1.67 1.63 1.82 2.15 1.77 1.73 1.56 Persons aged 65+ living alone Childless couples (at least one 65+) 4.65 5.28 4.08 3.57 3.19 1.80 2.93 4.36 5.38 3.42 2.92 2.06 1.38 1.39 2.11 2.61 2.79 2.31 1.78 2.01 2.31 2.42 2.86 2.27 2.10 1.74 1.09 0.62 Couple with 3+ children 1.16 0.90 1.22 1.00 1.53 0.69 1.65 1.50 0.72 1.12 1.93 2.43 2.07 3.64 Members of mono-parental HHs Members of HHs headed by farmers Members of HHs headed by unemployed Members of HHs headed by pensioners Members of HHs headed by persons with no prim. educ. 0.88 0.67 0.82 0.62 0.68 0.77 0.95 1.38 0.64 1.16 1.44 1.73 3.03 1.47 1.74 1.71 1.54 1.32 2.15 2.01 2.56 1.31 1.26 1.52 1.50 1.54 2.24 2.91 0.73 1.91 1.09 1.92 1.84 1.04 1.64 5.91 4.01 3.80 2.22 2.65 1.39 3.22 1.84 1.84 1.75 1.84 1.49 1.59 1.54 1.93 2.37 1.49 1.71 1.26 0.87 0.49 2.36 2.38 2.77 2.73 3.41 2.93 4.22 2.11 2.14 2.60 2.42 2.60 1.79 1.64 Contribution to aggregate poverty (consumption expenditure, FGT2, 1974-2008) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 80% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1974 1974 1982 1988 Urban areas 1994 1999 Semi-urban areas 2004 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 2008 Rural areas 100% 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% One or two (below 65) One or two (at least one 65+) Couple with children below 18 Other 60% 40% 50% 20% 40% 30% 0% 20% 10% 1974 1982 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 0% 1974 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 Farmer or agric. W orker Self-employed (non-agr.) Manual employee non-agr. Retired Tertiary completed Secondary completed Unemployed Other Primary completed Primary not completed 2008 Logit estimates of poverty risk (odds ratios, consumption expenditure) 1974 LOCALITY Municipalities > 100.000 Semi-rural areas Rural areas HH TYPE One person 65+ Ένα άτομο 65 ετών και άνω Childless couple (none 65+) Childless couple (at least one 65+) Couple with 1 child Couple with 3+ children Monoparental HH Other OCCUPATIONAL GROUP OF HH HEAD Employer (non-agric.) Professional (non-agric.) Self-employed (non-agric.) Farmer Employee (non-agric.) Unemployed Pensioner Other EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF HH HEAD University Upper secondary Lower secondary Primary not completed 1982 1988 1994 1999 2004 2008 0.43 ** 1.17 1.65 ** 0.57 ** 0.80 * 1.26 1.27 1.35 ** 1.73 ** 0.69 ** 1.71 ** 1.36 ** 0.56 ** 0.82 ** 0.96 1.21 ** 0.92 1.52 ** 1.55 ** 1.59 ** 1.73 ** 2.29 3.14 0.82 2.04 0.92 1.89 0.91 1.36 ** ** 1.71 4.65 1.20 3.17 1.05 1.67 1.20 1.65 0.62 2.15 ** 0.84 1.79 ** 0.78 1.51 * 0.78 1.11 0.80 2.83 0.95 1.96 1.09 1.65 1.62 1.28 0.14 0.85 0.96 1.52 0.73 1.86 1.80 1.83 ** ** ** ** ** 0.20 0.59 0.69 0.81 0.50 2.16 1.05 1.10 ** ** * * ** ** 0.24 2.08 0.87 1.42 0.66 2.18 1.47 1.28 0.13 0.33 0.56 0.90 0.21 1.46 0.68 0.64 0.06 0.26 0.50 1.73 ** ** ** ** 0.16 ** 0.09 0.30 0.40 ** 0.77 1.51 ** 1.68 ** ** * ** 0.18 0.40 0.60 2.15 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 1.27 2.76 ** 0.76 2.59 ** 0.75 1.50 * 0.71 1.18 ** 0.55 3.33 1.17 ** 1.62 * 0.81 * 2.54 ** 1.61 1.95 * ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** 1.32 2.62 0.83 2.34 0.79 1.84 1.68 1.61 ** ** ** * ** 1.03 2.33 1.16 2.51 1.19 2.26 1.84 1.42 ** 0.05 ** 0.13 ** 0.09 ** 0.26 ** 0.40 ** 0.33 0.82 * 0.86 ** 0.29 ** 0.31 ** 0.95 1.38 ** 0.57 ** 0.61 ** 0.56 ** 0.89 0.38 ** 0.32 ** 0.55 ** 0.56 ** 0.89 0.90 1.95 ** 1.97 ** 0.23 0.36 0.78 2.31 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * ** Trend decomposition of poverty (, FGT2, 1974-2008) Consumption expend. Grouping criterion Within groups Population shares poverty Income Within groups Population shares poverty Locality 70.3 29.7 84.7 15.3 HH type 105.8 -5.8 101.8 -1.8 Occupational group HH Head 89.6 10.4 103.5 -3.5 Educational group HH Head 17.4 82.6 55.5 44.5 Percentage change in poverty -57.5 -69.0 Inter-temporal trends in welfare indices 1974-2008 (HBSs) Consumption Expenditure Income 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 100 100 50 50 1974 Gini 1982 1988 1994 Atkinson (A, ε=0.5) 1999 2008 1974 Atkinson (Α, ε=2.0) Gini 2004 1982 1988 1994 Atkinson (A, ε=0.5) 1999 2004 2008 Atkinson (Α, ε=2.0) International comparisons: Inequality International comparisons: poverty Qualifications • Population groups under-represented in the HBS samples (homeless, institutionalized, immigrants) • Changes in indirect taxes (only consumption expenditure) • No inclusion of capital gains (only income) • No inclusion of public transfers in-kind (education, health care, etc) Qualifications • Population groups under-represented in the HBS samples (homeless, institutionalized, immigrants) • Changes in indirect taxes (only consumption expenditure) • No inclusion of capital gains (only income) • No inclusion of public transfers in-kind (education, health care, etc) Conclusions • Inter-temporal trends – – – – • • • • • • Inequality Poverty (in relative terms) Poverty (in absolute terms) Welfare Structure of inequality Poverty risk groups Structure of poverty International comparisons Rather “positive” results And, then, the crisis arrived!