Presentation at the Wilson Center Jan 28 2014 pptx

Latin America´s Decade
Latinobarometro 1995-2014
Marta Lagos
Presented at the Wilson Center
January 28th 2014
SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013
Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of
government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for
people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime, DNA/DNK.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013
SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 BY EDUCATION, AGE AND SEX -TOTALS
BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of
government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for
people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime. * Here only
‘Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’ .
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
CHURCHILLIAN DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement? Democracy may
have problems but it is the best system of government. * Here only ‘Strongly agree’ plus ‘Agree’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2002-2013
FULL DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (country)? * Here only ‘A democracy, with major problems’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
NOT ENOUGH MONEY TO BUY FOOD
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Has your household run out of money to buy food at any time during the past 12 months? * Here only ‘Yes’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
NOT IN THE LEFT-RIGHT SCALE
Q. In politics, people normally speak of "left" and "right". On a scale where 0 is left and 10 is right, where would
you place yourself? *Here only: ‘DNA’ plus ‘DNK’ plus ‘None’.
Chile
Brazil
Bolivia
Argentina
Peru
Nicaragua
Latin America
Paraguay
El Salvador
Colombia
Dominican Rep.
Honduras
Guatemala
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Panama
Mexico
Uruguay
Venezuela
38
32
27
26
25
23
19
19
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
13
12
7
6
0
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
10
20
30
40
DEMOCRACY CAN WORK WITHOUT POLITICAL
PARTIES
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Some people say that without political parties there can be no democracy while others say that democracy can
work without political parties. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work without political
parties’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1997-2013
DEMOCRACY CAN WORK WITHOUT CONGRESS
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997-2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Some people say that without a National Congress there can be no democracy while others say that
democracy can work without a National Congress. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work
without a National Congress’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1997-2013
SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013
Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied
with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’ and ‘Not very
satisfied’ plus ‘Not at all satisfied’ .
Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013
SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA AND EUROPE 1995-2013
Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied
with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’.
Source: Latinobarómetro and Eurobarometer 1995-2013 NOTA PONER EUROBAROMETER EN LEYENDA
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Do you approve or not of the performance of the government led by President (name)? * Here only ‘Approve’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2002-2013
INTEREST IN POLITICS
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. How interested would you say you are in politics? Very interested, ‘somewhat interested, not very interested or
not at all interested? * Here only ‘Very interested’ and ‘Somewhat interested’.
Chile and Peru, two
countries with high
economic growth rates
and low levels of
interest in politics
Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013
WILLINGNESS TO PROTEST ABOUT…
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013
Q. On a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means “not at all” and 10 means “very”, how willing would you be to
demonstrate and protest about…?
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
EXPECTATIONS
SATISFACTION WITH LIFE
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Generally speaking, would you say that you are satisfied with your life? Would you say that you are....? * Here
only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1997-2013
PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is
progressing’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013
PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2011-2013
Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is progressing'.
Half of countries
progress between 2011
and 2013.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2011 – 2013
COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In general, how would you describe the country’s current economic situation? Would you say it is very good,
good, about average, bad or very bad? * Here only ‘Bad’ plus ‘Very bad’.
Countries in
difficulty
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
FUTURE PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In the next 12 months, do you think your economic situation and that of your family will be much better, a little
better, about the same, a little worse or much worse than now? * Here only 'Much better' plus 'A little better'.
Future expectations
increase given strong
perceptions of a better
economic situation.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2001-2013
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
2013
Economic sentiment
is higher for personal
situation than that of
the country.
FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001-2013 - TOTALS BY OCUNTRY 2013
Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, fair, unfair or very unfair. * Here only ‘Very
fair’ plus ‘Unfair’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2001-2013
FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2010-2013
Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, fair, unfair or very unfair. *Here only ‘ Very
fair’ plus ‘Fair’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1997-2013
HOT WATER
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. Do you or any member of your family have any of the following goods? * Here only ‘Yes’ for hot water.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
SUBJECTIVE INCOME: IT’S NOT ENOUGH
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY
Q. Do the salary you receive and your total family income allow you to cover your needs in a satisfactory
manner? Which of the following statements describes your situation? * Here only ‘It’s not enough, we have
problems’ plus ‘It’s not enough, we have major problems’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1996-2013
COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. * Here only answers with
more than 3%.
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
SUMMARY: MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS/CRIME
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2007-2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? * Here only ‘Unemployment’ plus
‘Economy/economic/financial problems’ plus ‘Poverty’ and ‘Crime’.
2013 ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Source: Latinobarómetro 2007-2013
MOST IMPORTANT
UNEMPLOYMENT
PROBLEM:
CRIME
TOTAL LATINA AMERICA 1995-2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
AND
Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in the country? * Here only ’Unemployment’ plus ‘Crime’.
Source: Latinobarómetro 1995-2013
COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. *Here only ‘Corruption’,
‘Crime’ and ‘Economic problems’ (the economy, crime, poverty and unemployment).
CORRUPTION
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
CRIME
ECONOMIC
PROBLEMS
CAN THE GOVERNMENT SOLVE PROBLEMS
DURING THE NEXT FIVE YEARS? TOTALS BY COUNTRY
Q.
How likely is it that the government will solve the most important problem you identified within the next five
2013
years? Very likely, likely, not very likely or not at all likely. * Here only ‘Very likely’ plus ‘Likely’ and ‘Not very likely’
plus ‘Not at all likely’
LIKELY
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
NOT LIKELY
CAN THE STATE SOLVE THE FOLLOWING
PROBLEMS? TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. To what extent do you think the state can solve the problem of crime? The state can solve all the problem, a
large part of the problem, a small part of the problem or the state cannot solve the problem. * Here only ‘All the
problem’ plus ‘A large part of the problem’.
CRIME
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
MIDDLE CLASS IN LATIN AMERICA
Contrast between World Bank and
self clasification of class in Latinobarómetro
CLASS STATUS:LATINOBAROMETRO
VERSUS WORLD BANK
WB 2009
Country
Bolivia
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Paraguay
Costa Rica
Panama
Dominican
Republic
Colombia
Honduras
LAC
El Salvador
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Chile
LB 2013
DIFFERENCE
Middle
Low class
class
Upper Difference
Differenc
LB-WB
e LB-WB
5
-43
36
5
-35
30
11
-33
23
5
-29
23
5
-27
20
4
-26
19
10
-20
12
6
-18
11
Poor /
vulnerable
Middle
Class
Upper
Class
Low
Middle
82
79
72
75
81
75
60
68
17
21
26
25
18
24
37
30
1
1
1
1
0
1
3
2
39
44
39
46
54
49
40
50
53
51
49
48
38
43
49
41
77
22
1
62
33
5
-15
11
67
83
67
83
51
66
40
53
30
17
30
16
46
32
56
42
3
1
2
1
2
3
4
5
57
74
58
76
46
62
54
68
34
20
36
16
50
28
38
30
8
4
4
2
4
8
7
2
-10
-9
-9
-7
-5
-4
14
15
4
3
6
0
4
-4
-18
-12
CLASS STATUS: LATINOBAROMETRO´S
DIFFERENCE WITH WORLD BANK
CLASS: LATINOBAROMETRO & WORLD BANK
AVERAGE FOR LATIN AMERICA 2013- 2009
Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe
yourself as belonging to...?
58
Poor / vulnerable
67
36
Middle Class
30
4
Upper Class
2
0
10
20
LAC LB
30
40
LAC BM
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 World Bank 2009.( “low”=low + vulnerable class)
50
60
70
80
SOCIAL CLASS: SELF-CLASSIFICATION
TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe
yourself as belonging to…? * Here only ‘High’ plus ‘Upper-middle’, ‘Middle’ and ‘Lower-middle’ plus ‘Low’.
HIGH
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
MIDDLE
LOW
EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY BETWEEN THE LAST
TWO GENERATIONS
TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013
Q. What level of education do you have? What was the last year you completed?
Q. What level of education did your parents have?
Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
Churchillian Democracy
País
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Dominican
LATINOBARÓMETRO
2008*
77
77
82
70
82
78
60
63
58
66
69
67
71
70
63
LAPOP 2008**
WVS Wave 2005***
6,2
5,3
5,2
5,2
5,4
5,7
5
5,1
4,6
4,6
5,1
4,6
5,3
4,8
4,9
91
5,5
82
80
89
Support for Democracy: Democracy is preferable to any other
form of government
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Dominican Rep.
Uruguay
Venezuela
LATINOBARÓMETRO
2013*
73
61
49
63
52
53
62
49
41
44
37
50
49
50
56
60
71
87
LAPOP
2012**
DIFFERENCE
66
-22
72
87
70
72
66
69
75
84
84
63
72
75
87
-20
-34
-8
-23
-25
-25
-38
-34
-35
-13
-16
-15
-16
Table 1. A Statistical Model of Support for Democracy and Satisfaction with
Democracy: Logistic Regression.
Democracy
Preferable
Coef. Sig.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Sex (male)
Cohort prior to 1960
Cohort 1960-1973
Cohort 1974-1983
Education
Subjective income
POLITICAL CULTURE
Political interest
Internal political efficacy
Social trust
Political trust
Partisanship
IDEOLOGY
Left-Right self-placement
Free market support index
Religiosity
PERFORMANCE
Economic evaluations
Country progress
Income distribution
VICTIMIZATION
Victim of crime
Victim of discrimination
Victim of Corruption
Constant
Percent correctly predicted
R-Square:
Cox&Snell
Nagterlkerke
Democracy
Best system
Coef. Sig.
Reject Military
Government
Coef. Sig.
Regime
Indifference
Satisfaction with
Democracy
Coef. Sig.
B Sig.
-.05
.18 **
.17 **
.06
.11 ***
.01
-.05
-.35
-.13
.07
-.14
-.07
**
*
***
*
-.09 *
.15 ***
-.10 *
-.01
-.02
-.42
-.09
-.23
-.06
-.08
.02
.15 ***
-.04
.07 *
.26 ***
-.03
-.17 ***
.03
-.05 *
-.07
-.01
.00
.03 *
.23 ***
-.02
.09 ***
.24 ***
.07 *
.03
.12 **
-.10 **
-.06 **
-.11
-.02
-.04
-.21 ***
-.25 ***
-.23 ***
-.24 ***
-.13
.00
-.18 ***
-.10
-.69 ***
-.64 ***
.62 ***
-.17
83.9
.10
.29
.13
.06
.15
.02
*
***
*
***
.14 **
.02
.06
.04 *
.10 ***
.11
.20
.15
-.10
.14
.01
.07
.15
.15
.23
.05
*
**
*
***
64.5
79.9
63.7
.04
.05
.06
.10
.01
.02
***
*
***
*
***
***
*
***
.14 **
.21 ***
.23 **
.03
.05
Levels of statistical significance: * p<.05; **p<.01; *** p<:001.
Note: Cohorts refer to years of birth (cohort born 1984-1994 is the reference category).
.01
.16 **
.13 *
.13 *
.00
-.05
.14
-.02
.34
.34
.18
**
***
***
***
.04
.10 ***
-.03
.23 ***
.70 ***
.49 ***
-.14 **
-.30 ***
-.04
-3.52 ***
70
.22
.29
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