prediction models for site specific recommendations

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PREDICTION MODELS FOR SITE
SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS
Agriculture Extension View Point
Dr. Muhammad Anjum Ali
Director General Agriculture
(Extension & AR) Punjab, Lahore
FERTILIZER OFFTAKE BY NUTRIENTS PAKISTAN
(000 TONS)
Year
2010-11
N
3134
P2O5
767
K2O
32
Total
3933
2010-11
19.50%
0.81%
79.68%
N
P2O5
K2O
NFDC Reports
FERTILIZER OFFTAKE BY NUTRIENTS PUNJAB
(000 TONS)
Year
2010-11
N
2231
P2O5
548
K2O
24
Total
2803
2010-11
19.55
0. 85
79.59
N
P2O5
K2O
CROP USAGE OF FERTILIZER IN PAKISTAN
(000 NUTRIENT TONS)
Year
Wheat
2010-11 1966.5
Cotton Sugarcane
983.25
314.64
Rice
Maize
Others
Total
235.98
59
373.64
3933.01
2010-11
9.5%
8.0%
50 %
Wheat
Rice
Maize
25.0%
Cotton
Sugarcane
1.5%
6.0%
Others
TOTAL NITROGEN USE
ALL SOURCES
FERTILIZER
UREA
CAN
DAP
NP
MAP
NPK
000 TONS
5765
595
1325
335
38
70
PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASIS
84.26
4.92
7.58
2.45
0.13
0.67
PERCENTAGE
UREA
0.13
2.45
0.67
4.92
CAN
7.58
DAP
84.26
NP
MAP
NPK
TOTAL PHOSPHORUS USE
ALL SOURCES
FERTILIZER
DAP
SSP
TSP
NPK
MAP
NP
000 TONS
1325
224
18
70
38
335
PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASIS
78.55
5.20
1.07
2.71
2.55
9.93
PERCENTAGE
DAP
2.71
5.20
2.55
9.93
SSP
TSP
1.07
78.55
NPK
MAP
NP
TOTAL POTASH USE ALL
SOURCES
FERTILIZER
SOP
MOP
NPK
000 TONS
27
11
10
PERCENTAGE ON NUTRIENT BASIS
56.02
27.39
16.60
PERCENTAGE
27.39
56.02
16.60
SOP
MOP
NPK
FERTILIZER OFF TAKE
(000 N/TONS)
4000
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
N
P
K
USE EFFICIENCY OF DIFFERENT
NUTRIENTS
MACRO-NUTRIENTS
MICRO-NUTRIENTS
Parameter
Use Efficiency
(%)
Parameter
Use Efficiency
(%)
N
40 – 60
Zn
4–5
P
20 – 30
B
6–8
K
75 – 85
Fe
11 – 15
Kg Grains per Kg of N used
FERTILIZER USE EFFICIENCY
India
China
Pakistan
Long term study conducted by IFA for India, China and Pakistan revealed less grain yield
due decline in N use efficiency because of imbalance use of fertilizer nutrients
BALANCED USE OF FERTILIZER (Ha)
Kg/ha
Crop
N Only
NPK
% Increase
Wheat
2,521
4,120
63
Rice
2,800
4,494
60
Maize
2,110
5,084
14
Sugarcane
56,515
126,334
123
NFDC Reports
FERTILIZER VALUE
Total Cost
Million US $
Fertilizer
Use
efficiency
(% age)
Deficit
Million US $
425
2,450.12
50
1,225.60
1,325
515
682.37
25
170.59
38
595
22.61
80
4.52
Fertilizer
Annual
Consumption
(000 Tons)
Value (US $
per Ton)
Urea
5,765
DAP
Potash
COST OF PRODUCTION AND
FERTILIZER SHARE (Rs. / acre)
COTTON
Years
SUGAR CANE
MAIZE
Total
Cost.
Fert.
%Age
Total
Cost.
Fert.
%Age
Total
Cost.
Fert.
%Age
2003-04
14,336
1,823
12.72
23,636
3,825
16.18
9,249
1,442
15.59
2004-05
15,671
2,213
14.12
24,492
4,048
16.53
9,755
1,702
17.45
2005-06
17,319
2,289
13.22
25,008
3,630
14.52
11,010
1,777
16.14
2006-07
18,847
2,431
12.90
29,600
3,965
13.40
18,216
3,698
20.30
2007-08
19,505
2,620
13.43
30,428
3,675
12.08
18,827
3,571
18.97
2008-09
24,676
5,130
20.79
42,006
8,180
19.47
31,839
12,240
38.44
2009-10
27,509
4,065
14.78
43,549
8,227
18.89
33,547
11,025
32.86
2010-11
32,360
5,175
15.99
47,744
7,370
15.44
39,496
13,240
33.52
2011-12
43,850
7,888
17.99
57,282
9,446
16.49
49,093
19,305
39.32
2012-13
48,923
8,775
17.94
70,054
12,905
18.42
57,506
22,275
38.74
COST OF PRODUCTION AND
FERTILIZER SHARE (Rs. / acre)
Years
WHEAT
RICE
Total Cost.
Fert.
%Age
Total Cost.
Fert.
%Age
2003-04
9,028
1,316
14.58
11,741
1,463
12.46
2004-05
10,198
1,650
16.18
12,469
1,723
13.82
2005-06
11,524
1,847
16.03
13,716
1,779
12.97
2006-07
12,264
1,910
15.57
15,087
1,874
12.42
2007-08
15,626
3,614
23.13
16,154
2,005
12.41
2008-09
19,547
4,195
21.46
22,064
3,760
17.04
2009-10
24,187
3,332
13.78
24,898
3,110
12.49
2010-11
24,428
5,098
20.87
29,240
4,000
13.68
2011-12
29,149
6,280
21.54
36,351
5,992
16.48
2012-13
31,490
6,550
20.80
41,810
6,670
15.95
FERTILIZER USE EFFECIENCY
SOIL ANALYSIS
SITE SPECIFIC FERTILIZER
APPLICATION!
BALANCED NUTRITION
SITE-SPECIFIC NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT FOR CROPPING SYSTEMS
Nutrient Expert for Hybrid Maize Software
Extension Viewpoint
• Develop and deploy latest communication tools to raise
farmers’ awareness about the economic, social and
environmental benefits of adoption of IPNM.
• Conduct field demonstrations applying locally-adapted
IPNM techniques and prepare literature/media campaign
with the results from the local demonstrations.
• Assist farmers in making the best decisions for managing
crop nutrients at the field and farm levels.
• Provide farmers with all necessary products, services and
information to successfully implement IPNM.
• Training of the extension agents for best use of modern
gadgets and techniques to assist farmers
THANKS
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