Evolution of the Global Income Inequality, 1970-2015 Yuri Dikhanov World Bank Présenté par: Mr. Michel WARD Expert des Nations Unies Global inequality consists of within-nation and international components Global distribution is based on 45 countries representing 5/6 of population and income Income from household surveys is augmented to Personal Consumption Expenditures National distributions converted using PPPs Quasi-exact approximation of distribution f-n (with cubic polynomials) Assumptions for 2015 Growth rates from the 90s are maintained for 2000-2015 (except for Africa and Eastern Europe) National distributions are frozen at the 2000 level VARIOUS GLOBAL INEQUALITY CHARACTERISTICS changes 1970-80 198090 1990200 0 2000-15 1970-2000 cumul ative Gini-coefficient 0.014 0.004 -0.001 -0.031 0.016 Theil index 1 0.057 -0.032 -0.043 -0.109 -0.018 Theil index 2 0.040 0.030 0.021 -0.093 0.090 Income less than mean 0.010 0.023 0.027 -0.015 0.060 Decile ratio 11.30 0.19 -0.41 -7.87 11.08 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 Gini-coefficient 0.668 0.681 0.685 0.684 0.653 Theil index 1 0.996 1.053 1.021 0.978 0.869 Theil index 2 0.822 0.862 0.891 0.912 0.819 Income less than mean 0.705 0.716 0.738 0.765 0.751 Decile ratio 92.28 103.58 103.77 103.36 95.49 absolute levels 100,000 Income Levels by Decile, 1970-2015 1999 PPP dollars 18,895 10,000 8,348 4,999 2,778 1,000 22,808 9,964 10,800 10,901 36,476 13,619 7,263 5,682 2,920 1,404 1,478 878 630 470 343 957 696 519 376 205 27,057 30,081 220 5,676 2,879 1,723 1,213 901 673 478 261 5,129 2,926 2,002 1,477 1,115 829 577 4,468 3,103 2,289 1,713 1,256 844 Decile 10 Decile 9 Decile 8 Decile 7 Decile 6 Decile 5 Decile 4 382 291 Decile 3 Decile 2 Decile 1 100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 Decomposition of inequality using Theil II index 1970 Within-country inequality Between-country inequality 1980 1990 2000 2015 0.211 0.220 0.230 0.275 0.278 25.7% 25.5% 25.8% 30.2% 33.9% 0.610 0.642 0.661 0.637 0.541 74.3% 74.5% 74.2% 69.8% 66.1% Density WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION, 1970 0.400 0.350 0.300 SAS POPULATION 0.250 AFR 0.200 0.150 ECE 0.100 EAP OECD (0.100) LAC (0.150) (0.200) ECE (0.250) INCOME (0.300) (0.350) (0.400) (0.450) OECD 231,186 182,819 144,572 114,326 90,408 71,494 56,537 44,709 35,355 27,959 22,109 17,484 13,826 8,646 6,837 5,407 4,276 3,381 2,674 2,114 AFR income in 1999 Int. Dollars 10,934 SAS 1,672 827 654 517 409 323 256 202 EAP 1,322 (0.050) 160 126 0.000 0.000 1,046 LAC 100 Density 0.050 Density WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION, 2000 0.400 0.350 0.300 SAS POPULATION 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 ECE AFR LAC EAP (0.100) (0.200) (0.250) INCOME (0.300) (0.350) (0.400) SAS OECD AFR 231,186 182,819 90,408 71,494 56,537 44,709 35,355 27,959 22,109 17,484 13,826 8,646 6,837 5,407 LAC ECE (0.150) 10,934 (0.050) 4,276 3,381 EAP 2,674 2,114 1,672 1,322 827 1,046 654 517 409 323 256 202 160 126 100 Density 0.000 0.000 144,572 income in 1999 Int. Dollars OECD 114,326 0.050 Density WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION, 2015 0.400 0.350 0.300 SAS POPULATION 0.250 0.200 LAC 0.150 ECE 0.100 EAP (0.100) (0.150) (0.200) (0.250) INCOME (0.300) (0.350) (0.400) SAS AFR OECD LAC ECE 231,186 182,819 90,408 71,494 56,537 44,709 35,355 27,959 22,109 17,484 13,826 8,646 6,837 5,407 4,276 3,381 2,674 2,114 1,672 1,322 827 654 517 409 323 256 202 1,046 EAP 10,934 (0.050) 160 126 0.000 0.000 144,572 income in 1999 Int. Dollars OECD 114,326 AFR 100 Density 0.050 Regional composition of global income distribution, by percentile, 1970 SAS 80% ECE AFR 60% OECD 40% EAP LAC 20% Percentiles of global income distribution 97% 94% 91% 88% 85% 82% 79% 76% 73% 70% 67% 64% 61% 58% 55% 52% 49% 46% 43% 40% 37% 34% 31% 28% 25% 22% 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% 4% 0% 1% Regional composition of global percentiles 100% Regional composition of global income distribution, by percentile, 2000 SAS 80% ECE 60% AFR OECD LAC 40% EAP 20% Percentiles of global income distribution 97% 94% 91% 88% 85% 82% 79% 76% 73% 70% 67% 64% 61% 58% 55% 52% 49% 46% 43% 40% 37% 34% 31% 28% 25% 22% 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% 4% 0% 1% Regional composition of global percentiles 100% Regional composition of global income distribution, by percentile, 2015 SAS 80% ECE 60% OECD LAC AFR 40% EAP 20% Percentiles of global income distribution 97% 94% 91% 88% 85% 82% 79% 76% 73% 70% 67% 64% 61% 58% 55% 52% 49% 46% 43% 40% 37% 34% 31% 28% 25% 22% 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% 4% 0% 1% Regional composition of global percentiles 100% 0.40 0.35 Evolution of Global Income Distribution, 1970-2015, trace for each percentile 2000 1970 0.30 2015 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 100 1,000 10,000 1999 PPP Dollars 100,000 50% Income growth by percentile of global population, 1970-2015 40% 1980-70 1990-80 2000-90 2015-00 30% 20% 10% -10% -20% percentile 97 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 29 25 21 17 13 9 5 1 0% Regional income distributions: example of Africa, 2000 (0.15) (0.20) (0.25) (0.30) (0.35) (0.40) 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 (0.10) 1,000 (0.05) 100 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 - Income transfer Assumptions: Poverty gap 39% (20.6% of world population below PPP $700) 5% of the wealthiest transfer 2.8% of their total income or 8.1% of marginal income (1.04% of world income - $350 bln. in PPP terms or $150 bln. in exchange rate terms) to cover the poverty gap; Transfer is made to the people below PPP $1,400, with marginal rate 19.6%. Income share: Decile 1 Decile 2 Decile 3 Decile 4 Decile 5 Decile 6 Decile 7 Decile 8 Decile 9 Decile 10 Upper boundary, decile 1 Upper boundary, decile 2 Upper boundary, decile 3 Upper boundary, decile 4 Median/Upper boundary, decile 5 Upper boundary, decile Upper boundary, decile Upper boundary, decile Upper boundary, decile Upper boundary, decile Gini-coefficient Theil index Theil index 2 Variance (std.) Mode income Mean Income Income less than mean Decile ratio 6 7 8 9 10 after transfer Characteristics (estimation) before transfer WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION, before and after a hypothetical income transfer 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.7% 3.7% 5.3% 9.2% 19.6% 54.3% 435 686 952 1,270 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.7% 5.3% 9.2% 19.6% 53.3% 624 826 1,040 1,293 0.350 0.250 0.150 0.050 10 1,690 2,333 3,552 6,916 15,107 1,000,000 0.6825 0.9704 0.9066 1.9123 633 5371 0.7669 103.926 1,690 2,333 3,552 6,916 15,108 923,092 0.6652 0.8695 0.8623 1.8492 744 5371 0.7669 57.181 (0.150) (0.250) (0.350) (0.450) CONDITIONS marginal reception rate marginal surrender rate 100 (0.050) 19.6% 8.1% for people below $1,400 threshold ($2-a-day) for the richest 5% Fx Lx Fx Lx 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Ends of the global distribution, before and after the hypothetical transfer 0.150 0.450 0.050 0.350 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 (0.050) 0.250 0.150 (0.150) 0.050 (0.250) 100 (0.050) 1,000 10,000 Fx Fx (0.150) (0.350) Fx Fx Lx Lx (0.250) Lx Lx (0.450)