Current Economic Situation and Outlook in Thailand Kobsak Pootrakool 2 February 2015 Key questions What is the progress of the economic recovery in Thailand since the Coup D'état? What is the economic outlook for 2015? What are the key risks? 1 Key summary of the economic outlook The Coup d'état has resulted in a sharp improvement of sentiments of consumers and businessmen. Nevertheless, the rebound in economic activities has not been as quick as previously expected with mixed results across sectors. Consumers in the low income brackets experience much lower income prospects; those in the middle income segment still burdened with the debt obligation from 1st car programs; the best performing sectors are those related to high income families. On the business side, sectors related to infrastructure spending have renewed hopes on the government infrastructure projects but many still adopt wait-and-see approach. 2 Key summary of the economic outlook The baseline growth outlook for 2015 is around 4%. The key challenges of the Thai economy is not the recovery itself but how much the government will be able to accomplish in term of infrastructure spending and reforms of the country. If the reform process goes well, then it will provide a new platform for the economic progress down the road and will set Thailand to another level. Risk factors going forward include (1) implementation risks, (2) geopolitical risks, as well as (3) increasing volatilities in the global economy and Emerging Markets as the US continues with the normalization of its monetary policy. 3 Confidence level in Thailand has improved significantly Consumer Confidence Index Source: BOT Business Confidence Index 4 However, the actual recovery is much weaker than expected Growth in Q3 YoY: +0.6% QoQ: +1.1% Growth in Q2 YoY: +0.4% QoQ: +1.1% Source: NESDB 5 In particular, private consumption has rebounded sluggishly Private Consumption Index Source: BOT 6 The main constraint: high level of household debt % of HH with Debt % of Debt/ HH Income 1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile 6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile 34.2 44.6 48.2 50.5 52.5 53.1 58.6 59.4 62.4 63.5 29.8 9.3 7.1 6.5 7.3 7.2 8.2 10.2 11.9 10.9 Average 52.7 10.1 7 As a result, Thailand is now entering a new phase of growth The debt financed growth by household sector will come to a close and will need a new growth engine: public and private investment Source: BOT 8 But private investment also recovered slowly with many businesses waiting for the certainty of government projects Private Investment Index Source: BOT, BOI 9 On the other hand, tourism industry started to recover with increasing arrival of Japanese, Chinese, Malaysian tourists. Source: BOT 10 And export growth also improved across the board Source: BOT 11 … with growth being driven by CLMV and US markets Source: BOT 12 13 GDP forecast for 2015 NESDB for 2015 3.5-4.5% BOT for 2015 4.0% Source: BOT Key challenges for the government How can the government turn the improvement in sentiments into the real recovery in economic activities? Additional short-term stimulus measures Early harvest in term of public investment projects Additional support for other key sectors – Tourism etc. 14 Proposed infrastructure investment projects Development of water transportation network 1 • Development of ports • Improved efficiency of water transportation and maintenance of river banks Improvement of highway network Development of inter-city rail network • Improved equipment and infrastructure • Development of double-track rail 2 • Improved access to agricultural and tourism areas • Network to link cities and production bases • Network for international transportation • Improved road facilities to connect multi-channel transportation systems 4 Enhancement of Thailand’s air transport competitiveness 3 • Improved efficiency of airports • Improved efficiency of air traffic to meet international standards • Increased efficiency of air fleet • Establishment of aircraft industrial estates • Construction of buildings for civil aviation Development of transportation in Bangkok & its vicinity 5 • 10 electric train routes • Buy 3,183 NGV buses and improve parking places • Development of road networks and bridges in Bangkok and its vicinity 15 Key risks going forward Risk factors going forward include: Implementation risks Geopolitical risks Repercussions from the normalization of US monetary policy to global financial markets and emerging markets 16