幻灯片1 - Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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China and the Latin
America: Interest Change
and Cooperation Potential
Chai, Yu (Ph.D, Prof.)
The Institute of Latin America
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
May 26, 2010
Washington D.C
Framework




I
The relations between China and the
Latin America: development and
change
__ China’s Economic Development
Model
__ Change in the relations
__ Feature of the present relations
Framework



II
The coordination and cooperation between
China and the Latin America
__China’s attitude: concerned and
constructive
__the way to cooperation
China’s Development Model



Inclusive model:
In the future, this model has still to
be followed.
The Latin America:
benefited from this model, but not
enough.
China: GDP growth
GDP
Domestic investment and FDI: Consum
35-40%
ption:
40%
Governmental
expenditure:
15%
Export
5-10%
分享中国的发展—外资渠道



1985-2003年间,外资企业对于总贸易累计增加
量的贡献比例为 (进口和出口的总和)
61.64%, 其中,出口为 62.41%, 进口累进增
长量的 60.90%。
1981-2003年间, 加工贸易对于中国出口累计
增加量的贡献比例为57.83%。
2004-2007年间,外企和加工贸易在中国出
口增加总额中的贡献比例分别为46.70%和
56.56%;在中国进口中的比例分别为36.93%
和58.88%。
Who shares China’s growth?
Share
Increase in
Export
share
90160477.5
100
110990038.4
100
Asia
54012040.5
59.9
51625370.8
46.5
Africa
4218100.7
4.7
4621852.5
4.2
Europe
13812590.9
15.3
24831892.1
22.4
Latin America
6207694.9
6.9
5529255.3
5
North America
7737355.5
8.6
22049191.4
19.9
4004984
4.4
2370984.5
2.1
1993-2009
Increase in
Import
Total
Oceania and Pacific islands
Source: calculated on CEIC data by the author.
Which Partners Benefit?
2006-2007, 100million USD
partners increase in
import
Japan
182.77
Korea
140.02
TaiWan
province 139.34
US
101.82
Germany 75.02
Australia 65.31
Philipines54.43
Brazil
54.22
Malaysia 51.38
Thailand 47.05
Chile
45.21
India
43.56
Iran
33.55
Canada 33.18
Total
1645.78
share
11.11
8.51
8.47
6.19
4.56
3.97
3.31
3.29
3.12
2.86
2.75
2.65
2.04
2.02
100
1993 -2003 , 100million USD
partners
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
province
US
Germany
Malaysia
Thailand
Singapore
Philipines
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Russia
France
Total
increase in share
import
508.55
16.54
377.75
12.28
364.29
232.78
182.95
129.03
82.27
79.15
60.93
53.56
50.76
49.82
48.68
44.57
3080
11.85
7.57
5.95
4.20
2.68
2.57
1.98
1.74
1.65
1.62
1.58
1.45
100.00
中国在全球经济中的角色
NIEs:台湾,韩国和香港
日本
中国
更多资源丰富国家的加入
美国
和
欧盟
市场
The prospect for inclusive model: -1



1)labor cost increases. Since 2008 when new labor law
has been implemented, the cost increases by 40-50%. RMB
appreciates by 21% since 2005.
2)in the future, labor-seeking investment would decrease
but market seeking investment would increase.
3) In the next 10 years(12-15 years), China’s export
would be limited by some articles in the WTO accession
protocol, eg. Safeguard mechanisms on transitional
product-specific for 12 years, nonmarket economy status
for 15 years, special safeguard mechanism for textile
products, transitional Review Mechanism for 8 years.
——2



Restraints from the external market. Exports expand by 20% per
year in the last two decades. China is the first economy affected
by trade protectionism.
Transforming ways of economic development.
conclusion:inclusive model would be continued.China means
opportunity, not threat.
中国成为最大受害者
50.00
45.00
中国所占比例-反倾销动议中,%
中国所占比例-反倾销措施中,%
44.86
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
26.40
37.68
31.06
28.29
27.01
21.85
17.39
18.93
18.18
16.74
14.12
13.16
11.29
10.00
5.00
0.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
大国成为主体
对中国的反倾销动议
120
84 87
18
13
9
9
8
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6
30
21 22 23 25 28
37
51
61
智利
牙买加
日本
马来西亚
菲律宾
波兰
特立尼达和多巴哥
中国台湾
巴基斯坦
乌克兰
以色列
泰国
新西兰
印度尼西亚
委内瑞拉
埃及
秘鲁
哥伦比亚
加拿大
韩国
墨西哥
澳大利亚
南非
巴西
土耳其
阿根廷
欧盟
美国
印度
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
发展中国家值得关注
对中国的反倾销措施
90
60
40
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5
18
11 11 11 12 15 15 15 16
66
48
21
智利
牙买加
日本
马来西亚
乌克兰
中国台湾
巴基斯坦
菲律宾
波兰
特立尼达和多巴哥
新西兰
泰国
以色列
印度尼西亚
哥伦比亚
埃及
委内瑞拉
澳大利亚
加拿大
墨西哥
秘鲁
南非
韩国
巴西
阿根廷
土耳其
欧盟
美国
印度
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(3)传统中国经济增长方式面临挑战



低成本、高投入、高污染的传统经济增长方式
难以为继;
廉价劳动力不应该,也不会是我们长久的竞争
源泉—因为发展经济的目的就是要改善人们的
生活,提高人民的工资。
同时,经济的发展也意味着资源的节约和环境
保护的加强。
方向



共享发展模式
人民共享模式
环境友好模式
中国的新作用和地位



一方面,在国际上,中国的对外经济的发展已经冲击
到了整个国际经济秩序的边界——贸易不平衡,金融
体系以及美元的地位;贸易扩张以及盈余,引发保护
主义,冲击国际贸易体系;中国的经济崛起冲击现有
的全球治理结构。中国的地位和作用如何?
另一方面,国内经济的发展却还沉重的经济以及社会
转型的压力。。。
中国进入到了一个发展的关键时期。
Change in the relations 1
Historical connection:
__In the 5th century AD,Chinese
monks have been Mexico.
__In the Ming dynasty, silk way on the
sea.

Change in the relations 2
In 1950’s, non-governmental contacts.
Accumulative development with steady
steps.
cultural and trade delegation
in 1960, diplomatic relations were
established between China and Cuba.
 In this period, China’s goal is keeping
contact and building understanding, in
order to resume her seat in the UN.

Change in the relations 3




In 1970’s, 12 countries have established
diplomatic relations with China. Cultural,
economic and trade links have been expanded.
China also resumed the seat in the UN, and
established diplomatic relations with the US.
In this period, China’s interest lied in exploring
more room for international activities.
In the above periods, China takes more political
factors into considerations in the relations.
Change in the relations 4


1978-2000, with China’s openness,
economic and trade contacts have
increased greatly.
Dengxiaoping: the issues we face now is
peace and development.
By the end of 1990s, 19 countries have
diplomatic ties with China.
Since then, economic interest has become
the driving force of the relations.
Change in the relations 5



Since the beginning of the new century, a
multi-directional, multilevel and widerange relations are shown to us. It has
made a big step in the relations between
two parties.
Hu jingtao: China-Latin America cooperation
faces unprecedented historical opportunities
(2004).
The goal for China is to build and develop
a comprehensive and cooperative
partnership featuring equality, mutual
benefit and common development.
Feature of the present situation



Strategic partnership: Brazil, Mexico, Argentin, Peru,
Chile, Cuba, Venezuela.
Multi-directional: south, middle and Carribean.
Multilevel: political, economic, cultural, security, and
30 fields.
--Political: 21 countries have diplomatic relations
with China. Bilateral, multilateral and
international dialogue and consultation
mechanisms.
--Economic: trade and investment increased
greatly. Trade angel and infrastructure aider.
--Cultural: confusion college, sister cities, etc.
--Security: military exchanges, judicial and police
cooperation,nontraditional security.
China and Latin America: 60 years
source: the relations between China and Latin America in the past 60 years,
Zhengbingwen, Sunhongbo and Yueyunxia.
The coordination and cooperation between
China and the Latin America
__China’s attitude: concerned and
constructive
“Now the humane man, wishing himself to
be established, sees that others are
established, and, wishing himself to be
successful, sees that others are
successful.” Analects of Confusius
(551BC-479BC)
The coordination and cooperation
between China and the Latin America
__the way ahead
* Dialogue and Consultation: deepen mutual
understanding
* Economic integration: inclusive
development, eg. ASEAN
* China and the US: mechnism with Japan,
Korea, Spain, etc. Capacity building.
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