NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS

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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
HOME BUILDERS
2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000
Up 24% from 2011
This represents 44% of what would be
considered normal (1.2170M)
Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22%
Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%
CORE LOGIC
IN 2012:
• Total Homes Sales Increased 6%
• Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11%
• REO Sales Declined 20%
(3rd consecutive decline)
• Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4%
6.9%
• Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat
sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)
GLAR MLS 2012
•
Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive
Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)
Houses Sold on MLS
‘06
‘07
‘08
15,181 14,748 11,369
‘09
‘10
‘11
‘ 12
‘12 vs.’11
11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9%
Median Sales Price
‘06
138.5
•
‘07
139.0
‘08
134.9
‘09
132.0
‘10
138.0
‘11
‘ 12
134.1 140.0
‘12 vs.’11
+4.3%
Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in
’12 vs. ‘11
PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA
MSA
Birmingham, AL
Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Columbus, OH
Dayton, OH
Houston, TX
Indianapolis, IN
Knoxville, TN
Memphis, TN
National
Rank
222
201
213
265
186
212
30
149
156
206
1-yr
-1.3%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-2.2%
-0.3%
-1.0%
3.4%
0.3%
0.1%
-1.0%
Qtr.
-0.2
0.4
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.9
0.2
0.6
-0.1
Louisville, KY
133
0.6%
0.4
-2.8%
Oklahoma City
Portland, OR
Raleigh, NC
Richmond, VA
Seattle, WA
64
66
181
230
63
2.0%
2.0%
-0.2%
-1.5%
2.0%
0.7
1.8
1.4
2.2%
-21.0%
-6.6%
-18.1%
-23.1%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
5-yr
-8.8%
-12.9%
-8.3%
-13.3%
-6.9%
-9.9%
5.5%
-3.9%
-5.5%
-12.1%
TOP 20 MSA LARGEST
5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES
Las Vegas, NV
Vallejo, CA
Stockton, CA
Daytona Beach, FL
Reno, NV
Orlando, FL
Ocala, FL
Salvias, CA
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Riverside – San Bernadine, CA
Port St. Lucie, FL
Yuba City, CA
Naples – Marco Island, FL
Visalia, CA
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL
Fresno, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Bradenton – Sarasota, FL
West Palm Beach, FL
Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL
-54.3%
-45.6%
-44.9%
-44.3%
-44.0%
-42.8%
-42.7%
-41.7%
-41.6%
-41.3%
-40.9%
-40.7%
-40.1%
-39.8%
-39.0%
-38.8%
-38.5%
-38.4%
-38.0%
-37.8%
-37.8%
Louisville, KY
-2.8%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Residential Building Permits 2012
Jefferson
Oldham
Shelby
Spencer
Bullitt
Clark
Floyd
Harrison
8-County
Total
Note: Nelson
Hardin
’12 vs ’11
+49.4
39.3
86.3
2.2
37.1
+46.5%
2012
1003
156
136
47
292
1634
2011
671
112
73
46
213
1115
349
169
96
614
227
98
64
389
+53.7
72.4
50.0
+57.8%
2,248
1504
+49.5%
114
254
122
210
-6.6%
+21%
Source: The Market Edge
Residential Building Permit 2012
Market Comparison
%CHANGE
2012 vs. 2011
42.5%
MARKET
Louisville
KY
Lexington
Evansville
KY
IN
33.1%
24.3%
Asheville
Charlotte
Fayetteville
Hickory
Triad
Raleigh
Upstate
Chattanooga
Knoxville
Tri-CitiesTN
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
TN
TN
21.5%
30.4%
------12.3%
3.2%
31.8%
32.1%
27.7%
23.9%
Source: The Market Edge
-4.5%
Improving Markets Index
259
242
201
125
98
76
1
2
2
3
30
41
9
9
101 100
99
80
84
80
103
5294
5137
5015
4790
4348
Permits
4225
3749
3297
5294
5137
5015
4790
4348
Permits
4225
3749
3297
97.5%
59.6%
52.6%
49.5%
48.8%
38.6%
34.2%
29.9%
13.2%
-1.2%
-2.4%
-11.7%
-18%
-22.5%
-27.7%
J
1
1
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
12
Source: local government permitting departments
S
O
N
D
J
13
F
NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTS
WHAT HOME BUYERS
REALLY WANT
The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers
47% want three bedrooms
32% want four bedrooms
57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home
31% prefer two stories
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement
48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2nd floor
70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1st floor
Buyers focus on “Quality & Appearance” where
looking at home components such as flooring,
doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc.
while…
When looking at appliances, the focus is on
“Quality & Brand”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• In the Kitchen:
A walk-in pantry, table space for eating
and a double sink are considered
essential/desirable by 84% of buyers
• In the Bathroom:
An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a
shower stall and tub in Master bath are
essential/desirable to 80% of buyers
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• When Rating Windows:
67% want energy star rated
windows, triple pane insulating glass
and low-e insulating glass
• Decorative Features:
88% Want ceiling fans
60% Want built-in shelving and ceiling
crown molding
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Laundry Room:
57% Buyers find it essential and would not
buy a home without it
36% Find it desirable
• Garage Storage:
32% Rate it essential
54% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features:
90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable
83% Patio
80% Front porch
• Master Bath Location:
45% Essential
36% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 62% Would choose a smaller home with
higher quality products and amenities than
a larger home with fewer amenities
• 73% Agree that the projected utility costs
of a home would influence their decision
today
• 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a
builder that provides home energy ratings
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Location of choice for new home buyers:
Central City – 8 %
Close-in Suburbs – 30%
Outlying Suburb – 38%
Rural Area – 27 %
and small towns
• Community features to seriously influence
the buying decision:
Walking/Jogging Trails – 60%
Park Area - 54%
Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50%
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 70% of home buyers see value in professional
designations for building/remodeling contractors
‒ “More
Professional & Credible”
‒ “Provide better quality work and
craftmanship”
‒ “Provide better service levels”
‒ “More Reliable”
Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor:
1. “Reputation for quality construction”
2. “Reputation for completing projects on
budget”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Type of Home Preferred
(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers
(Percent of Respondents)
36%
58%
57%
28%
36%
63%
53%
37%
41%
49%
51%
39%
35%
54%
40%
48%
32%
36%
31%
54%
49%
54%
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable
(Percent of Respondents)
41%
49%
56%
27%
26%
54%
29%
49%
22%
55%
51%
21%
45%
17%
39%
21%
6%
31%
6%
27%
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable
(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Accessibility Features - History
(Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012
and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 )
2004
2007
2012
A full bath on the
main level
75
74
81
Non-slip floor
surfaces
62
53
63
An entrance
without steps
42
38
50
Bathroom aids,
such as grab bars
or seating in
shower
40
35
46
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home
W/out a Living Room by Division
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers to
Choose a Community
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence
Purchase Decision - History
(Percent of Respondents )
2004
2007
2012
Walking/jogging trails
51
49
60
Park area
52
43
54
Outdoor swimming pool
36
36
50
Lake
32
33
45
Exercise room
30
27
39
Convenience Store
n/a
28
32
Drug Store
n/a
28
32
Playgrounds
26
22
31
Public transportation
34
24
29
Clubhouse
21
21
26
Security guard at gate
30
17
25
Card-operated gate, no guard
16
14
19
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence
Purchase Decision – History Cont.
(Percent of Respondents )
2004
2007
2012
Tennis courts
10
10
17
Arts and Crafts
n/a
7
14
Basketball courts
9
8
13
Business center
17
8
13
Billiard room
9
6
12
Daycare center
9
8
9
Baseball/ softball field
8
6
9
Soccer field
5
4
6
Racquetball courts
4
3
6
Equestrian facilities
n/a
3
5
Other
11
13
6
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS
2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE
SURVEY
61%
Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37%
who choose to live on smaller lots within walking
distance to schools, stores and restaurants
78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work
important in choosing where to live.
88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is
a bigger consideration where to live than the size of
the house.
77%
75%
Important Choice Decisions
Sidewalks and places to take a walk
High quality public schools
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Importance of Community Characteristics
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Preferred Versus Actual Community Type
8%
5%
11%
19%
28%
26%
12%
19%
18%
14%
22%
16%
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
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