Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary

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Exit Polling in Mississippi
Republican Senate
Primary
Norman Analytics and Research
June 30, 2014
Key Findings

McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.

Voters under 35, those without a college degree and those making $25,000$99,999 were more likely to vote for McDaniel.

In the regions tested, 20% of June 24th voters did not participate in the June
3rd primary. McDaniel won 56% of these voters – on par with his overall vote
total in the regions surveyed.

In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a
message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the
radio ad had as much impact as other ads seen and heard during the
campaign.

Despite what they say about impact, voters who heard the message about the
Congressional Exemption for Obamacare (through any channel) were significantly
more likely to vote for McDaniel.

Among those who heard the NON PAC Ad and said it had an impact, 75% voted
for McDaniel.

The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is
believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for
an incumbent.
Election Results
Results are weighted to match the final tally in each county. McDaniel did
well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.
100%
90%
80%
70%
32%
43%
54%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
68%
57%
46%
10%
0%
Total
Suburban Memphis
Chris McDaniel
Thad Cochran
Gulf Coast
Election Results
Younger voters strongly favored McDaniel.
100%
90%
80%
70%
43%
42%
35%
41%
45%
65%
59%
55%
18-34
35-54
55+
69%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
57%
58%
31%
10%
0%
Total
White
Black
Chris McDaniel
Thad Cochran
Election Results
Voters with less than a college degree were more likely to favor McDaniel.
100%
90%
80%
70%
43%
41%
45%
35%
34%
57%
59%
55%
65%
66%
Total
Men
Women
HS or Less
Some
College
52%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
48%
10%
0%
Chris McDaniel
Thad Cochran
College
Degree
Election Results
McDaniel had strong support from his Tea Party base as well as middle and
upper-middle class voters. The wealthiest voters were more likely to favor
Cochran.
100%
17%
90%
80%
70%
43%
50%
60%
83%
40%
20%
38%
65%
62%
53%
85%
50%
30%
35%
57%
10%
50%
47%
15%
0%
Total
Support TP Oppose TP
Under
$25K
Chris McDaniel
$25-$50K $50-$100K
Thad Cochran
$100K+
Voting in June 3 Election
One-in-five voters in Suburban Memphis and the Gulf Coast did not
participate in the original primary.
20%
34%
2%
44%
Thad Cochran
Chris McDaniel
Other
Did Not Vote
Election Results
There was limited voter switchover between primaries. Voters who did not
participate in the June 3rd primary voted similarly to the total number of
voters in the regions.
100%
4%
90%
80%
27%
43%
44%
70%
60%
92%
50%
96%
40%
30%
73%
57%
56%
20%
10%
8%
0%
Total
June 3 - Cochran
June 3 - McDaniel
McDaniel
Cochran
June 3 - Other
June 3 - Did not vote
Election Results – Changes from June 3 to June 24
Most voters cast the same ballot they did on June 3.
1%
2%
9%
42%
31%
2%
11%
3%
McDaniel to McDaniel
Cochran to McDaniel
Did not vote to McDaniel
Other to McDaniel
Cochran to Cochran
McDaniel to Cochran
Did not vote to Cochran
Other to Cochran
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters
McDaniel won new voters who support the Tea Party and those without college degrees while
Cochran courted higher income, higher educated voters as well as those who oppose the Tea Party.
Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3,
Voted McDaniel 6/24
Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3,
Voted Cochran 6/24
Male
48%
44%
Female
52%
56%
18-34
15%
11%
35-54
45%
50%
55+
40%
40%
White
91%
86%
Black
6%
11%
HS of Less
25%
7%
Some College
40%
26%
College Grad
35%
66%
Under $25K
13%
7%
$25-$50K
26%
22%
$50-$100K
36%
34%
$100K+
25%
36%
Support Tea Party
62%
15%
Oppose Tea Party
11%
51%
Heard NON PAC Ad
16%
20%
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters
In the regions surveyed, June 3rd non-voters were more likely to be
supportive of the Tea Party and McDaniel won this group easily. New voters
who supported the Tea Party were more likely to have heard the NON PAC Ad
showing the ad was well targeted to McDaniel’s base.
June 3 Non-Voters
Support Tea Party
41%
Cochran 16%/McDaniel 84%
Neutral to Tea Party
31%
Cochran 50%/McDaniel 50%
Oppose Tea Party
28%
Cochran 80%/McDaniel 20%
June 3 Non-Voters
Support Tea Party
41%
25% heard NON PAC Ad
Neutral to Tea Party
31%
17% heard NON PAC Ad
Oppose Tea Party
28%
10% heard NON PAC Ad
Radio Advertising
In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a
message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the
radio ad had as much impact as other advertising mediums.
Heard Now or Never PAC
Radio Advertising
Total
Suburban
Memphis
Gulf Coast
27%
22%
32%
Heard NON PAC
Radio Ad
Saw TV Ad
Received Mail
A Great Deal of Impact
13%
14%
14%
Some Impact
22%
23%
24%
Just a Little Impact
16%
15%
15%
No Impact
48%
47%
45%
Profile of Voters – Radio Ad
Profile of Voters
Who Heard NON PAC
Radio Ad
Profile of Voters
Who Heard NON PAC
Radio Ad and Said
Advertising Had
Impact
Male
55%
49%
Female
45%
51%
18-34
11%
15%
35-54
38%
34%
55+
52%
51%
White
96%
96%
Black
2%
3%
HS of Less
9%
Some College
College Grad
While 57% of voters in the tested regions voted for
McDaniel, 63% of those who heard the NON PAC Ad voted
for him and 75% of those who heard the ad and said it had
impact supported McDaniel.
Of those who heard the NON PAC Ad, 59% support the Tea
Party compared to 47% among all voters. This indicates
the ad was well targeted to turn out a segment of voters
likely to support McDaniel.
Profile of Voters
Who Heard NON
PAC Radio Ad
Profile of Voters
Who Heard NON
PAC Radio Ad and
Said Advertising
Had Impact
Voted Cochran
37%
25%
11%
Voted McDaniel
63%
75%
28%
32%
33%
24%
63%
57%
Voted Cochran
6/3
Under $25K
5%
6%
52%
64%
$25-$50K
11%
12%
Voted McDaniel
6/3
$50-$100K
43%
39%
Voted Other 6/3
2%
1%
$100K+
41%
44%
Did Not Vote 6/3
13%
11%
Support Tea Party
59%
71%
Oppose Tea Party
17%
11%
 Significantly higher than the total sample
 Significantly lower than the total sample
Obamacare Exemption Impact
Voters who heard the message about Cochran and the Congressional
Exemption for Obamacare were significantly more likely to vote for
McDaniel.
Total
Heard Obamacare
Exemption Message
(any medium)
Advertising had impact
36%
37%
Likely Congress is hiding Obamacare
Exemption
74%
77%
Less likely to vote for incumbent if
Obamacare Exemption is true
69%
75%
Believe Congress and staff should pay
for own insurance
51%
49%
Voted McDaniel
57%
63%
 Significantly higher than the total sample
 Significantly lower than the total sample
Obamacare Exemption
The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law
is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote
for an incumbent.
Total
Voted McDaniel
Voted Cochran
Believe Congressional Exemption
74%
82%
62%
Do Not Believe Congressional Exemption
26%
18%
38%
Total
Believe
Congressional
Exemption
Do Not Believe
Congressional
Exemption
Less likely to vote for Incumbent
72%
77%
56%
Makes no difference
16%
11%
30%
More likely to vote for incumbent
4%
4%
4%
Note sure
8%
8%
11%
Obamacare Exemption
Voters are split on whether or not Congress and their staff should get
employer based healthcare. However, other survey data show this changes if
Congress appears to have a separate set of rules.
100%
90%
80%
70%
49%
54%
51%
46%
Total
Heard Radio Ad
47%
56%
44%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
53%
44%
56%
10%
0%
Did Not Hear Radio Ad
Voted Cochran
Voted McDaniel
Congress and their staff should be able to get health insurance through their employer like other workers
Congress and their staff get enough benefits - they can pay for their own health insurance
Appendix
Methodology

In-person interviewers were positioned at 18 polling places in Mississippi on June
24, 2014 for the Republican Senate Nomination Runoff Election.

In total 1,127 interviews were conducted.

9 in Suburban Memphis (576 interviews)

9 on the Southern Gulf Coast (551 interviews)

Polling places were selected through a random stratified sample based on turnout
in the June 3rd Republican Primary. Polling places where fewer than 100 people
voted on June 3rd were excluded for operational/feasibility issues.

Interviewers approached every third person that left the precinct and invited
them to participate in a survey. This was done to ensure a random sample.

If voters agreed to participate, they were handed a double sided survey which was
self-administered and returned to a box. The interviewer did not review the
completed surveys to ensure anonymity.

Final survey data were weighted to match the actual election outcome in each
county. Figures in this report reflect weighted data. When data from the state
becomes available, this can be updated to match precinct level actual returns.
Locations – Suburban Memphis
Precinct/County
June 3 Ballots
Cast
June 24 Ballot
Cast*
Exit Interviews
Collected**
1,232
84
Olive Branch South/DeSoto
589
114***
Southaven North/DeSoto
509
85
Senatobia 1/Tate
500
75
Nesbit West/DeSoto
291
80***
Byhalia/Marshall
251
60***
Looxahoma/Tate
160
23
Potts Camp/Marshall
143
42
Floyd/Benton
112
13
Hernando East/DeSoto
*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results
**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization
***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for part of the day
Locations – Southern Gulf Coast
Precinct/County
June 3 Ballots
Cast
June 24 Ballot
Cast*
Exit Interviews
Collected**
OS Civic/Jackson
2,219
203
Diamondhead East/Hancock
1,541
18***
Biloxi 11/Harrison
1,082
174
Fontainebleau/Jackson
891
51
Eastlawn/Jackson
494
32
Waveland West/Hancock
363
12
White Plains/Harrison
250
57
Outside Long Beach/Harrison
171
2***
City Hall/Hancock
102
2***
*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results
**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization
***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for most of the day
Demographics of Voters
Total
June 3 Voters
Male
49%
50%
Female
51%
50%
18-34
10%
9%
35-54
36%
33%
55+
54%
58%
White
93%
94%
Black
5%
4%
HS of Less
18%
18%
Some College
33%
33%
College Grad
49%
49%
Under $25K
10%
10%
$25-$50K
18%
16%
$50-$100K
42%
43%
$100K+
30%
31%
Support Tea Party
47%
48%
Oppose Tea Party
24%
23%
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