A strong majority of respondents believe that sending these children back to their home countries will convince parents to stop sending their children to the U.S. border. As you may know, by the end of this year 70,000 to 90,000 unaccompanied illegal immigrant children are expected to cross the border in to the United States, which is threeto-four times the number that crossed over last year. Which of the following approaches do you think is the best way to handle the flood of children over the border? Send them back to their home countries to convince parents there to stop sending their children here. 65% Re-locate them to communities across the United States to provide them safe shelter. 22% 0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70% Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 1 Liberals are alone in supporting Obama as Lone Ranger. President Obama recently said that he may go around Congress and take executive action on immigration policy. Which do you support more: President Obama changing immigration policy on his own, or President Obama working with Congress to change immigration policy? 93% 90% 81% 75% 74% 56% 52% 44% 21% 40% 21% 14% 6% Total Liberal Moderate Conservative Changing on his own 4% Democrat IndependentRepublican Working with Congress Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 2 Hispanics disagree but opposition is weak. One idea is to encourage illegal immigrants to go back to their home countries by keeping them from getting jobs and welfare benefits in the United States. Do you support or oppose this proposal? 71% 67% 53% 46% 48% 41% 27% 24% Total Whites Total Support Blacks Hispanics Total Oppose Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 3 Unpopular at each level of concern, whether immigration is a voter’s most important issue or not in top 10. In your view, should most illegal immigrants be encouraged to return to their home country or offered legal status in this country? 80% 75% 70% 62% 55% 28% 25% 20% 9% Total 17% 13% 8% 6% Most important issue 17% 12% Top 3 issue Encouraged to return to their home countries Top 10 Issue Offered legal status Not top 10 issue Do not know Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 4 As the economy creates new jobs, who should get preference: U.S.-born workers and legal immigrants already in the country, OR additional immigrants who would come to the United States (SPLIT SAMPLED) legally? As the economy creates new jobs, who should get preference: U.S.-born workers and legal immigrants already in the country, OR additional immigrants who would come to the United States (SPLIT SAMPLED) illegally? n=522 n=479 77% U.S.-BORN WORKERS AND LEGAL IMMIGRANTS ALREADY IN THE COUNTRY 89% U.S.-BORN WORKERS AND LEGAL IMMIGRANTS ALREADY IN THE COUNTRY 4% ADDITIONAL IMMIGRANTS WHO WOULD COME TO THE UNITED STATES LEGALLY 17% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.) 2% REFUSED (VOL.) 1% ADDITIONAL IMMIGRANTS WHO WOULD COME TO THE UNITED STATES ILLEGALLY 7% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.) 2% REFUSED (VOL.) Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 5 Although a gender gap exists, majorities of both men and women support these policies. Majorities of all political parties agree. This includes 2-1 support in regards to intensity (34% strongly support/18% strongly oppose). Support for these policies also increase with income. To address the current border crisis would you support or oppose an approach that includes three main parts: extra funding for immigration enforcement, making it easier to return young illegal immigrants to their home countries, and restricting the president’s ability to legalize illegal immigrants on his own? 70% 63% 58% 54% 32% Total 42% 37% 27% Men Total Support 57% 54% 33% 23% Women Republicans Democrats Independents Total Oppose Nationwide Survey: 1,008 Adults 8/7-10/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 6 Fox News poll: Obama Approval 42% approve/52% disapprove ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Immigration: 34% approve/58% disapprove Handling of children on the border: 31% Approve/56% Disapprove The economy: 40% approve/57% disapprove Obama honest and trustworthy: 48% Yes/50% No FoxNews Poll: 7/20-22/14 1,057 RVs WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama Approval 40% approve/54% disapprove ◦ Worst measure for handling an issue: Illegal children on the border: 11% satisfied/64% dissatisfied. ◦ 51% of Americans say illegal children on the border should be sent home because the U.S. does not have the resources to deal with them. 43% say some immigrants should stay. WSJ/NBC Poll: 7/30-8/3/14 1,000 Adults Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 7 Immigration is front and center now, and people expect leaders to respond, not just react. Take your case directly to them. They are listening. Americans want businesses to be held accountable on immigration practices: e-Verify is not enough; more serious and more fair hiring policy and job training for U.S. workers are popular. Keep the focus on what you can be for – policies that protect unemployed and low-income American workers from competition with immigrants for jobs, compassion but common sense at the border, encouraging repatriation and poking businesses to hire Americans in need of work. Fact and figures that inform and remind people of the literal costs of illegal immigration, from increased taxes to decreased economic opportunities subsume the heartstrings impulses. Emotional appeals are fine, but economic data should carry the day. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 8 “Fairness” is a core governing value in this country, having replaced “equality” on a number of issues. On immigration, fairness should apply to everyone in the equation, not just the immigrants. What is fair to the economy? To blue-collar workers? Are employers doing all they can to be fair to Americans looking for an honest day’s wages for an honest day’s work? The children-at-the-border-crisis has brought into sharp relief public opinion about immigration. Out of sight, out of mind is over. There is strong consensus on many populist immigration policies that should find new audiences: ◦ Strengthen enforcement of current immigration laws. ◦ Tighten access or eliminate public benefits to illegal immigrants – at least adults – and improve enforcement of employment laws. ◦ Limit chain immigration for legal immigrants to immediate nuclear family (spouse and minor children). ◦ Encourage/require businesses to hire American citizens and legal immigrants already here first, offering training as necessary – especially in low or minimal skilled jobs. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 9 Policies that encourage illegal immigrants to return home by not allowing them to hold a job or receive public benefits receives high agreement. Conservatives and Republicans can “own” this issue by focusing on these common sense solutions. Turning on its head the cynical meme that immigrants do the jobs Americans won’t do would be a public relations coup. The idea that Americans should do – an should be preferred in trying to do – the jobs currently held by immigrants – enjoys broad public support. Five and a half weeks of children at the border, and five and a half years of the Obama economy has crystallized public sentiment. Leverage that. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 10 The time appears ripe for a national immigration conversation. There is a new open-mindedness to populist approaches, regardless of partisan or ideological preferences. ◦ 75% want more enforcement of current immigration laws, including 63% of Hispanics and over 50% of Democrats ◦ A full 18%, and across racial lines, name immigration as the most important issue to their vote and another 39% put it among the top three. ◦ While President Obama is underwater in his job approval (57%-40%), an even greater margin (two-thirds) of Americans disapprove of his handling of immigration. This includes one of his key constituencies, Hispanics, who disapprove of his job performance on immigration by 55% to 39%. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 11 Neither Republicans or Democrats are viewed as doing a good job on immigration, a product of the parties’ lack of coherent immigration message. That also means that neither party currently “owns” the issue. The current combination of children-at-the-border-crisis and an increasingly weakened President Obama is awakening a sleeping giant on an issue long eclipsed by the economy and healthcare. Those pessimistic about the U.S. employment outlook or have lower annual household incomes are more resistant to immigration and also more conservative in their approach to policies dealing with illegal immigrants. Likely voters are more inclined to believe that immigrants take jobs from Americans rather than create jobs, and nearly 9 out of 10 believe that U.S.born workers and legal immigrants already here should get first preference for jobs. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 12 Over two-thirds of likely voters agree that we should limit access to illegal jobs and welfare benefits to encourage illegal immigrants to return to their home countries - including 64% of union members. Hispanics were split: 48% support and 46% of them oppose this solution. Tolerance for adult foreign citizens who overstay their visas is almost nil – just under 80% of all respondents say they should not be allowed to stay. There was strong agreement, including among all ideological and political party identifications, that chain migration needs to be limited to only spouses and minor children of legal immigrants. Even half of those who say we enforce our immigration laws “too much” agree that this policy should be limited. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 13 Messaging on debt, unemployment, Obama and Obamacare will not be enough come November. This is not 2010. And that did not work everywhere in 2012. “Economy” means different things to voters (affordability, security) & immigration is viewed as part of the overall economic equation. ◦ 50% believe it’s unfair that we bring in one million immigrants who can look for jobs while millions of Americans are having trouble finding work ◦ Pessimism persists: 45% plurality believe that the unemployment situation will get worse in the next few years ◦ 77% believe U.S. born workers and legal immigrants already in the country should be given preference for hiring and training over new legal immigrants (89% agree over illegal immigrants). ◦ 58% agree that there are plenty of Americans to do construction and service industry jobs, with no need for increased immigration to fill them. ◦ 80% believe businesses should be required to recruit and train more American workers from groups with high unemployment levels. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 14 Current federal policy allows about one million new legal immigrant workers and their dependents into the United States each year. In your opinion, is the level of legal immigration in to this country – roughly one million per year too high, too low, or about right? 65% 48% 43% 40% 36% 35% 33% 21% 13% 14% Top 10 Issue Not Top 10 Issue 8% 6% Most Important Issue Too High Top 3 Issue Too low About Right Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 15 Those in the Northeast want Americans to be the priority over the general population (86%-77%), while those making less than $40k agree. Nearly one quarter of those 18-34 are unsure of who should be the priority. As the economy creates new jobs, who should get preference: U.S.-born workers and legal immigrants already in the country, or additional immigrants who would come to the United States legally? 88% 78% 77% 78% 71% 62% 31% 17% 21% 16% 9% 17% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% Total Liberal Moderate Conservative Democrat Independent US-Born Additional Immigrants Do not know Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 16 Respondents overwhelmingly agree that businesses should be required to try harder to recruit and train more American workers from groups with the highest unemployment levels, rather than allowing them to bring in more immigrant workers. 85% 80% 76% 16% 10% Total 13% 12% 7% Liberal Moderate Conservative Recruit jobless Americans 84% 80% 79% 78% 11% 8% Democrats Independents Republicans Allow more immigrant workers Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 17 Three quarters of respondents believe that businesses should attract workers through higher wages, not recruiting from the immigration lines. This also represents an opportunity for a positive populist message that demonstrates a market-based solution to immigration and to raise workers’ pay apart from the minimum wage. If U.S. businesses have trouble finding workers, what should happen? Total Men Women Whites Blacks Hispanics Republicans Democrats Independents They should raise wages and improve working conditions to attract Americans 75% 71% 78% 73% 86% 71% 74% 79% 74% More immigrant workers should be allowed into the country to fill these jobs 8% 8% 8% 8% 3% 11% 6% 8% 8% Nationwide Survey: 1,008 adults 8/7-10/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 18 Do you think that chain migration should be limited to only spouses and minor children of legal immigrants or should be open to siblings, parents, and adult children, as well as spouses and minor children, of legal immigrants? 76% 75% 69% 67% 65% 56% 49% 39% 34% 23% 23% 21% 14% Total Liberals ModeratesConservatives 13% Democrats IndependentsRepublicans Limited to only spouses and minor children Should be limited to siblings, parents, and adult children, as well as spouses and minor children. Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 19 Three quarters of respondents want more enforcement of immigration laws in the United States, not buying the narrative of Obama’s high number of deportations. This includes 63% of Hispanics, 53% of liberals, 57% of Obama 2012 voters. How would you rate the government’s efforts to enforce immigration laws in the United States? Would you say the government has done too much, too little, or just the right amount to enforce immigration laws in this country? 92% 81% 74% 58% 24% 13% 10% 7% Total Democrats Too much Too little 7% 6% Independents 4% 3% Republicans Just the right amount Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 20 Americans who need work ought to have an opportunity to do the jobs that are currently done by illegal immigrants. 83% 73% 73% Total Agree 4% 14% Total Disagree Do not know 22% 21% 12% 81% Whites Blacks Total Agree Hispanics Total Disagree Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 21 Even those wanting to give illegals citizenship, and those who think we enforce immigration laws “too much” believe that these jobs should go to American workers. Americans who need work ought to have an opportunity to do the jobs that are currently done by illegal immigrants. 86% 85% 80% 72% 67% 61% 33% 26% 20% 11% Too much Too little 10% Right amount Return home Total Agree Total Disagree 11% Legal status Citizenship Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 22 “As you know, there are many different ways in which illegal immigrants come to this country. I am going to read you a few different situation. For each, please tell me whether you think that group should or should not be allowed lifetime work permits and legal status in the United States.” Immigration Scenarios Overview Should be allowed Should not be allowed Adult foreign citizens who came to the U.S. on vacations, as students or temporary workers, and stayed past the date of expiration on their visas. 18% 76% Illegal immigrant children who have been sent alone by their parents. 27% 66% Adult foreign citizens who crossed the U.S. border illegally. 15% 79% Nationwide Survey: 1,001 LVs 7/16-20/14 Kellyanne Conway August, 14 2014 23