CMBS OUTLOOK: 2013 AND BEYOND 18th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Session 5: Real Estate Finance 1 A Brief History of CMBS Agency and Private-Label CM BS New Issue Volum es 250 228 Private-Label CMBS 200 198 Agency CMBS Issuance ($BB) 167 150 93 100 74 57 50 78 68 37 72 60 48 48 51 47 2 3 34 33 27 26 16 2 3 2 1 5 6 8 6 5 7 16 3 4 94 12 - Source: Jefferies & Co., Commercial Mortgage Alert * Projected 2 3 CMBS Spread Projections in 2013 CMBS spreads will continue to decline in 2013, although at a slower pace than in 2012, due to: – Historically low rates – Technicals: Reduced securitized products Run off in CMBS – Improving CRE fundamentals – Relative value vs. competing sectors – More readily available leverage – Continued tame spread volatility 3 3 CMBS Conduit Lender Competitiveness Growing Wider/volatile CMBS spreads and ineffective loan pipeline hedging tools drove up conduit loan rates during 2H11 Life Company Vs. CMBS Commercial/ Multifamily Mortgage Commitments and Contract Interest Rates (2000-2012) via a higher rate to absorb the spread volatility – Reduced volatility and strong demand for high-grade risk assets yielded tighter CMBS spreads and sharply lower mortgage rates in 2012 Conduit mortgage rates closing in on portfolio lender rates, but can’t touch the GSEs – Conduit rates of 3.90% to 4.50% – Life Co. rates of 3.50% to 4.50% – Regional bank rates of around 5.00% Amount Committed ($B) – Only effective hedge was building in cushion 250 9.00 200 8.00 150 7.00 100 6.00 50 5.00 - 4.00 Life Co. Amt. ($B) CMBS Amt. ($B) Life Company Rate (%) CMBS Mortgage Rate (%) Source. ACLI, Jefferies & Co. Note: No CMBS data in late-08 through YE09. * Annualized 2012 4 3 CMBS Issuance Volumes Show Slow But Consistent Annual Growth 2007: $228 Billion Total Issuance 64 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – $192b 2 Single-borrower CMBS – $11b New Issue CMBS by Deal Type 60 13 Floating-rate CMBS - $20.8b ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other 2009: $2.74 Billion Total Issuance 50 Floaters 3 Single-Borrower CMBS – 144(a) Single Borrower 2 Private Freddie K CMBS Conduit/Fusion 40 2010: $11.6 Billion Total Issuance 7 Conduit CMBS – 144(a) 4 Single-borrower /Other CMBS – 144(a) 5 Private Freddie K CMBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuance ($B) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 20 2011: $32.2 Billion Total Issuance 18 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – Public, 144(a) 8 Single-borrower /CMBS – Private 144(a) 11 Private Freddie K CMBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YTD 2012: $48.0 Billion Total Issuance 27 Fixed-rate Conduit CMBS – Public, 144(a) - $32b 21 Single-borrower /CMBS – Private 144(a) - $10.1b 16 Private Freddie K CMBS - $3.3b 3 Non-Performing CMBS – Private 144(a) - $486mm 10 0 Source: Jefferies & Co., CM Alert 5 3 CMBS Volume Projections in 2013 CMBS Volume will exceed $70mm in 2013, due to: More competitive CMBS spreads relative to bank and life company lenders High levels of debt and equity capital Increasing property transactions Growing pool of refinanceable loans, particularly given outlook for historically low mortgage rates Increasingly aggressive first mortgage underwriting Expanding subordinate debt markets 6 3 Rising Debt and Equity Capital for CRE: Transaction Volume Up from the Trough CRE Property Transaction Volume 600 513 Sales Volume ($B) 500 354 308 400 300 300 207 200 100 79 102122 180 123 139 60 0 Source. RCA *Est. 7 CMBS 3.0 – Increasing Leverage As Per the Rating Agencies Fixed-Rate Conduit/ Fusion CMBS Stressed LTV (%) 120 100 80 60 Source: Jefferies & Co. * YTD 2012 Data 1.40 Fixed-Rate Conduit/ Fusion Stressed DSCRs 1.20 1.00 0.80 Source: Jefferies & Co. * YTD 2012 Data 8 CMBS Maturities Level Off in 2013 and 2014 Before Heading Into the Wall Fixed-Rate Conduit/Fusion Maturity Schedule (Excludes Defeased Loans) 7,500 140 Ou tstan din g Balan ce ( $B) Lo an Cou n t 5,000 2,500 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Loan Curr. Bal. ($B) Loan Count 10,000 0 Source: Jefferies & Co. Excluding Defeased Loans. *as of 11/12 9 Ability to Refinance Depends on Vintage/Seasoning Majority of loans maturing in ‘13 originated in ‘03 and ’04 Fixed Rate Coupons and Capitalization Rates by Vintage Avg. Avg. Loan Coupon Avg. Cap ‘03 loans are structurally more sound, but adverse selection issues weigh on outlook – Amortizing – Higher loan coupons at origination than today – Higher cap rates at origination and thus equity build-up as cap rates lower today $18B of fixed rate 10-year ‘03 vintage loans to mature in ’13 $6.2B of fixed rate 9/10-year ‘04 vintage loans to mature in ‘13 Vintage 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (%) 8.25 7.99 9.48 8.20 7.19 6.14 6.18 6.03 6.67 8.51 8.62 NA 5.83 6.36 5.77 Rate (%) 8.56 8.45 8.64 8.41 7.98 7.67 7.25 6.79 6.36 5.74 5.36 6.72 6.20 5.82 4.26 Spread (BPs) 300 234 233 238 202 173 149 130 135 328 438 NA 258 246 272 Avg. 10 Avg. Pool Swap Rate LTV (%) 69.3 69.2 69.4 68.7 68.9 66.8 68.9 68.7 68.0 69.1 (%) 5.25 5.64 7.15 5.82 5.17 4.41 4.69 4.73 5.32 5.24 66.8 57.9 63.9 62.1 4.24 3.44 3.25 3.90 3.05 Sources: Jefferies, Trepp, NCREIF. *Across all property types. 10 3 CRE Values Remain Depressed Nationally, But Many MSAs in Recovery Mode Commercial Property Prices (as of 10/12) – Lower by 22% from 10/07 peak – Declines vary by asset type/quality/location By Property (peak thru 10/12) – Retail: -35% – Office: -25% – Industrial: -23% Commercial Real Estate Values Past the Trough (as of 10/12) 200 175 150 125 100 75 Source. Moody's Investors Service, S&P – Multifamily: -12% But Recovery Well Underway – National all-property composite has regained 43% of its peak-to-trough loss Core MSAs in Full Recovery, Non Major MSAs Lag – Non-major markets recovered 27% of peak-to-trough loss – Major markets recovered 65% of loss National CPPI CPPI by Property Type: 2008 vs. 2012 10/31/08 200.00 159.02164.19 10/31/12 162.27 161.24 154.72 160.00 123.51 131.83 141.97 120.00 80.00 40.00 0.00 Source: Moody' s/REAL CPPI 11 3 Improving Commercial Real Estate Valuations– An Uneven Recovery Moody' s/REAL CPPI by Property Type Moody' s/REAL CPPI by Major/Non -Major Markets vs. National 225 225 Major Mkts. 200 175 Non-Major Mkts. National Office 200 175 Industrial Retail Apartment 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 Source. Moody' s, * as of 10/12. Source. Moody's Investors Service Source. Moody' s, * as of 10/12. Source. Moody's Investors Service 12 CRE Supply Technicals Bode Well for Valuations National Net Completion Data for Multifamily and Hotels 2,200 300 National Net Completion (SF) for Retail, Office and Industrial Properties 300,000 HT RT 250,000 OF MF 2,150 200 200,000 Units (x1000) Net Completion (SFx 1000) IN 150,000 100,000 Rooms (x1000) 2,100 100 2,000 50,000 - Source. CB Richard Ellis 2,050 1,950 - Source. CB Richard Ellis Retail: Completion taking further dip Office: Completion dip surpassed the previous lows of 1994 and 2004 Industrial: Showing similar trend to office with triple dips at 1993, 2003 and now 2012 Hotels: Showing a great pick-up in completions, at the peak currently Apartments: lowest completions since 1994 13 Important Disclosures This material is provided for informational purposes only and is intended solely for your use. It may not be quoted, circulated or otherwise referred to without our express consent. This material is a product of Jefferies & Company, Inc. 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