Health Education Kent, Surrey and Sussex
Surrey Workforce Update
“Through creative partnerships we shape and develop a workforce that impacts positively on health and wellbeing for all”
0
Introduction
The purpose of this presentation is :• To provide an update on the process followed to date
• To provide an update on the 5 year workforce forecasts for
Surrey as presented at a recent workforce workshop
• To provide an update on the education commission requests
for 2015/16 and any discrepancies
• To gain the Partnership Councils view on the forecasts and
commissions and agree any actions
• To present the feedback from the County Workshop
1
14/15 Outcomes
Overall response
• 22 workforce and education commissioning templates sent out
• 22 workforce and education commissioning templates returned
• 22 organisations completed both workforce and education commissioning
returns to a degree
• 17 completed the CPD template but not to the level of detail hoped for.
Challenges
• Medical workforce forecasts
• Five year forecasts
• Occupation Code issues
• Monitor Returns
2
Workforce Planning Process
K
Local Provider Returns
S
S
Aggregated within
County and Overall
KSS Workforce Plan
Sense Check and
Triangulate with
•
Providers
•
Commissioners
•
Each Profession
•
Regionally
Input of
Healthcare
Professionals
Education
Commissions Health
Education Institutions
National
Workforce Plan
Sense Check and
Triangulate with
•
Providers
•
Commissioners
•
Each Profession
•
Regionally/
Nationally
The Year Ahead –
Timescales and Process
Workforce Planning Timeline
Template and Process
NHS TDA
2 year plan
NHS TDA
1 year plan
Monitor 5
Monitor 5
year plan,
Year Plan
Second cut final
Monitor 5
year plan
February March
NHS TDA
5 year
plan
April
HEKSS Workforce
forecast and
education
commissioning
template released
County
Workshops
May
June
30th May
Return of
HEKSS
Template
from
providers
July
HEKSS return
of Demand/
Forecast
Template to
HEE
25th
September
HEKSS return
Investment
Plan to HEE
Sept
October Dec-14
August
Jan-15
HEKSS Local
Workforce
Plan
published
Feb-15
HEE National
Workforce plan
published
10th July
HEKSS Workforce
Planning and
education
commissioning
event
Planning
HEE Formal
board sign
off of
Workforce
Plan
Plan Sign-Off
Triangulation
Publication
4
NICE Safe Staffing Guidelines
• NICE is developing evidence based
guidelines setting out safe staffing for
the NHS. This will include reviewing and
endorsing staffing tools
• The focus of work will be on nursing
and midwifery, including nursing
support.
• The guidelines will help ensure an
appropriate balance of staff numbers
and skill mix on wards and in other
settings
• As this new guidance programme
develops other elements of the
healthcare team may be included
www.nice.org.uk/About/What-we-do/Our-Programmes/NICE-guidance/NICEguidelines/NICE-safe-staffing-guidelines
Safe Staffing Guidelines
• covers staffing for nursing in adult inpatient wards in
acute hospitals
• identifies organisational and managerial factors - from
trust to ward level
• sets indicators to be used to demonstrate information on
whether safe nursing care is being provided
• identifies red flag events which warn when nurses in
charge of shifts must act immediately to ensure they
have enough staff to meet the needs of patients on that
ward
• no recommended nurse/patient ratio - providing patient
centred care more complex.
Nursing Forecasts
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
Adult Nursing
Midwifery Total
2933.44
2947.12
2523.09
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
3058.59
3001.85
3118.36
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
2819.21
3000.00
500.00
450.00
401.86
432.83
432.83
375.52
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
432.83
432.83
42.00
50.00
142.00
0.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
Mental Health Nursing
Paediatric Nursing
250.00
140.00
150.00
100.00
38.00
189.68
189.68
189.68
189.68
120.00
127.72
127.65
127.60
127.60
127.60
127.60
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
190.93
200.00
121.69
196.19
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
204.90
50.00
422.83
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
3500.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
Nursing Commissions
SURREY - Nursing Commissions 2015-16
160
139
140
142
120
100
80
2014-15
2015-16
60
40
32
40
35
25
20
12
38
25
7
6
10
0
18-month Midwifery
programme
3-year Midwifery
programme
Adult Nursing
Children's Nursing
Learning Disability
Mental Health
Nursing
Community Nursing Forecasts
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
District Nursing
Health Visitors
72.26
75.62
67.51
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
83.14
12.00
250.00
200.00
172.31
180.52
191.93
150.00
100.00
50.00
10.00
0.00
200.55
217.83
209.18
226.50
24.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
School Nursing
90.00
75.84
80.00
70.71
65.59
70.00
60.47
55.35
60.00
47.86
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
78.97
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
20.00
81.74
80.36
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
80.00
77.98
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
90.00
6.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
Community Nursing Commissions
SURREY - Community Nursing Commissions 2015-16
60
50
50
40
2014-15
30
2015-16
24
20
13
12
10
6
3
6
3
0
0
0
District Nursing
Health Visitors
Paediatric Nursing
Practice Nursing
School Nursing
AHP Forecasts
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
Occupational Therapists
Physiotherapists
350.00
600.00
281.64
287.65
291.17
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
300.51
500.00
438.28
445.13
466.88
477.17
484.11
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
22.00
490.07
427.58
17.00
0.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
SURREY - Education Commissions 2015-16 v FTE Demand Forecast 2014-2019
Radiography (Therapeutic)
Radiography (Diagnostic)
140.00
250.00
175.83
150.00
100.00
50.00
206.54
217.04
217.04
217.04
217.04
120.00
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
196.29
200.00
111.86
95.64
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
14.00
113.86
114.86
116.86
115.86
117.86
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
50.00
298.28
296.04
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
277.21
EARLIEST IMPACT OF CHANGE
300.00
11.00
0.00
0.00
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
2015-16 EDU
COMMS
2014 ACTUAL FTE
2014 FTE
2015 FTE DEMAND 2016 FTE DEMAND 2017 FTE DEMAND 2018 FTE DEMAND 2019 FTE DEMAND
SIP
BASELINE DEMAND
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
FORECAST
ABOVE BASED ON ACTUAL EDU COMMS FOR 2015-16, ACTUAL MARCH 2014 SIP AND FTE DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2014 TO 2019
0
5
2
4
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1
3
Ultrasound
17
Therapeutic Radiographers
10
Speech and Language Therapists
9
Sonographers
20
Prosthetists/Orthotists
12
Physiotherapists
11
Paramedics
15
Orthoptists
25
Operating Department Practitioners
30
Occupational Therapists
7
Dieticians
10
Diagnostic Radiographers
Chiropodists/Podiatry
AHP Commissions
SURREY - Allied Health Professional Commissions 2015-16
27
22
16 14
11
7
2 2
2014-15
2015-16
Feedback
A workshop was held at the end of August to share with providers and CCG
colleagues the revised workforce forecasts and proposed education commissions for
2015/16.
Main areas of feedback
• Adult Nursing – commissions look to meet demand. Further consideration needed
about placement capacity given vacancy factors.
• District Nursing – commissions don’t look to meet demand. Needs further work.
• Midwifery – overall commissions going down. Need to make decision about the 18
month programme.
• AHP commissions don’t match the direction of travel of the forecasts.
• Lack of practice educators for Health Visitors and School Nurses needs to be
addressed.
• Broadening the Foundation Programme hasn’t been factored into the plans. Need
to look at Advanced Practice, Physicians Associates and Medical Technicians as a
solution.
• CPD – need to ensure this matches with the future direction of health services.