World Grain & Oilseed Outlook March 2014 1 – Corn • • • • Summary Acreage Exhale Export Expansion?? Funds big buyers. SA Crop Shrinking • Bearish Bias - $3.50 by 2015 – Soy • US Oversold? • Acreage Expansion • Prices At $9.00 by Fall – Wheat • Ample World Exportable Supplies • Currently Only One Growing Area Issue • Prices Closer To Corn Values 2 3 Historical US Planted Acreage USDA IAG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 78.6 #N/A 80.9 #N/A 81.8 #N/A 78.3 #N/A 93.5 0.5 86.0 0.9 86.4 1.9 88.2 2.1 91.9 3.0 97.2 0.3 95.4 3.6 94.0 Double Crop Prevented Plant 73.4 3.67 #N/A 75.2 4.51 #N/A 72.0 2.88 #N/A 75.5 3.78 #N/A 64.7 5.18 0.6 75.7 6.81 0.6 77.5 4.65 0.9 77.4 2.32 1.3 75.0 4.50 1.4 77.2 5.40 0.2 76.5 7.65 1.7 82.0 6.00 59.7 #N/A 57.2 #N/A 57.3 #N/A 60.5 0.3 63.2 0.1 59.2 0.9 53.6 3.3 54.4 4.1 55.7 0.6 56.2 2.0 55.0 Prevented Plant 62.1 #N/A 13.7 #N/A 14.2 #N/A 15.3 #N/A 10.8 0.1 9.5 0.0 9.1 0.2 11.0 0.1 14.7 0.2 12.3 0.1 10.4 0.2 11.0 Prevented Plant 13.5 #N/A 227.6 229.5 225.3 226.5 229.6 234.4 232.2 230.2 236.0 242.5 238.5 242.0 YoY chg (less dbl crp) 224.0 1.3 225.0 1.0 222.4 -2.6 222.7 0.3 224.4 1.7 227.5 3.2 227.5 0.0 227.8 0.3 231.5 3.7 237.0 5.5 230.9 -6.2 236.0 5.1 Prevent Plant Total #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.5 1.6 3.9 6.8 8.8 1.1 7.5 325.7 322.3 317.6 315.6 320.4 325.0 319.3 316.7 315.1 326.3 324.8 34.1 34.7 34.9 36.0 36.8 34.6 33.7 31.1 31.2 29.7 27.0 Corn Prevented Plant Soybeans All Wheat Cotton Primary Primary less dbl crp Principle Crops* CRP Enrolled Source: USDA, IAG,million acres, million bushels, million 480-lb bales * Crops included in Principle Crops are corn, sorghum, oats, barley, winter wheat, rye, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted. Includes double cropped acres and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops. 4 USDA, IAG 5 US Corn Supply and Demand Millions of Acres Millions of Bushels Area Planted Area Harvested Percent Harvested Yield Per Acre 13/14 USDA Estimates February March 95.4 95.4 87.7 87.7 92% 92% 158.8 158.8 IAG Estimates 13/14 14/15 95.4 94.0 87.7 86.0 92% 91% 158.8 159.0 11/12 91.9 84 91% 147.2 12/13 97.2 87.4 90% 123.4 Beginning Stocks Production Imports 1,128 12,360 29 989 10,780 162 821 13,925 35 821 13,925 35 821 13,925 35 1,618 13,673 20 Total Supply 13,517 11,932 14,781 14,781 14,781 15,311 Feed and Residual Feed Replaced by DDGs Food, Seed and Industrial Ethanol Usage Total Domestic Exports Exports Replaced by DDGs 4,557 1,310 6,428 5,000 10,985 1,543 297 4,335 1,173 6,044 4,648 10,379 731 322 5,300 5,300 5,400 6,400 5,000 11,700 1,600 6,400 5,000 11,700 1,625 5,291 1,165 6,393 4,992 11,685 1,479 443 Total Demand 12,528 11,111 13,300 13,325 13,163 13,350 Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage Production-Usage Carry-Out Months of Supply Average Farm Price USDA Estimates 989 7.89% -167 0.95 $6.22 821 7.39% -331 0.89 $6.89 1,481 11.14% 625 1.34 $4.20 $4.80 1,456 10.93% 600 1.31 $4.25 $4.75 1,618 12.29% 762 1.47 1,961 14.69% 323 1.76 6,450 5,000 11,850 1,500 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 US Wheat Supply & Demand (million bushels, million acres) Millions of Acres Millions of Bushels Area Planted Area Harvested Percent Harvested Yield per Harvested Acre 10/11 53.6 47.6 89% 46.3 11/12 54.4 45.7 84% 43.7 12/13 55.7 48.9 88% 46.3 Beginning Stocks Production Imports 976 2,207 97 862 1,999 112 743 2,266 123 718 2,130 170 718 2,130 170 718 2,130 170 603 2,154 100 Total Supply 3,279 2,974 3,131 3,018 3,018 3,018 2,857 Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Usage Exports 926 71 132 1,128 1,289 941 76 162 1,180 1,051 945 73 388 1,406 1,007 960 74 250 1,284 1,175 960 74 250 1,284 1,175 960 75 250 1,285 1,130 950 75 125 1,150 1,000 Total Demand 2,417 2,231 2,414 2,459 2,459 2,415 2,150 862 35.66% 41.30% 743 33.30% 34.45% 718 29.74% 35.65% 558 22.69% 558 22.69% 603 24.96% 707 32.86% $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage % Soft Wheat (Red & White) Average Farm Price USDA Estimates 13/14 USDA Estimates February March 56.2 56.2 45.2 45.2 80% 80% 47.2 47.2 $6.65 $6.95 $6.75 IAG Estimates 13/14 14/15 56.2 55.0 45.2 46.8 80% 85% 47.2 46.0 $6.95 15 USDA, IAG 16 World Major Wheat Exporter Supply & Demand March Report Beginning Stocks Production Imports 10/11 84.28 345.73 13.34 11/12 78.66 378.33 19.06 Estimated 12/13 74.54 332.04 16.47 Total Supply 443.35 476.04 423.04 448.93 450.04 Feed Total Domestic Exports 85.28 247.92 116.73 97.81 261.53 140.01 90.11 252.61 116.72 88.45 250.88 138.89 86.85 249.28 141.39 Total Demand 364.65 401.55 369.33 389.77 390.67 53.71 41.69% 59.16 46.67% 59.37 47.12% (million metric tons) Ending Stocks 78.69 74.50 Stocks to Usage 49.93% 48.68% *Canada, US, EU-27, FSU-12, Australia, Argentina USDA Estimates 2013/14 USDA Projections February March 53.59 53.67 379.19 379.71 16.16 16.67 17 Canada Wheat Supply & Demand March Report Beginning Stocks Production Imports 10/11 7.74 23.30 0.44 11/12 7.36 25.29 0.49 Estimated 12/13 5.93 27.21 0.48 Total Supply 31.49 33.14 33.62 43.04 43.04 Feed Total Domestic Exports 2.70 7.55 16.58 4.70 9.85 17.35 4.39 9.59 18.98 5.00 10.20 23.00 5.00 10.20 23.00 Total Demand 24.13 27.20 28.57 33.20 33.20 7.36 29.43% 5.93 21.80% 5.05 17.68% 9.84 29.64% 9.84 29.64% (million metric tons) Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage USDA Estimates 2013/14 USDA Projections February March 5.05 5.05 37.50 37.50 0.49 0.49 18 FSU-12 Wheat S&D 10/11 25.99 81.07 5.50 11/12 23.61 115.03 8.02 Estimated 12/13 27.03 77.50 7.23 112.56 146.66 111.76 125.12 125.70 Feed Total Domestic Exports 23.87 75.06 13.89 27.90 79.87 39.77 20.96 71.80 25.50 23.84 74.38 33.90 23.34 73.88 34.90 Total Demand 88.94 119.64 97.30 108.28 108.78 23.61 26.55% 27.03 22.59% 14.46 14.86% 16.85 15.56% 16.92 15.55% (million metric tons) March Report Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage USDA Estimates 2013/14 USDA Projections February March 14.38 14.46 103.83 103.83 6.91 7.41 19 EU-27 Wheat Supply & Demand March Report Beginning Stocks Production Imports 10/11 16.58 136.67 4.62 11/12 11.93 138.18 7.37 Estimated 12/13 13.56 133.88 5.26 Total Supply 157.86 157.48 152.70 156.95 Feed Non-Feed Domestic* Total Domestic Exports 52.52 70.33 122.84 23.09 57.50 69.73 127.23 16.69 50.50 69.50 120.00 22.62 Total Demand 145.93 143.92 11.93 8.09% *calculated 13.56 9.42% (million metric tons) Ending Stocks Stocks to Usage USDA Estimates 2013/14 USDA Projections February March 10.08 10.08 142.87 142.89 4.00 4.00 IAG 13/14 10.08 143.00 4.00 14/15 12.58 146.00 4.00 156.97 157.08 162.58 49.50 69.25 118.75 27.50 48.00 69.25 117.25 29.00 47.00 69.00 116.00 28.50 50.00 72.00 122.00 24.00 142.62 146.25 146.25 144.50 146.00 10.08 7.07% 10.70 7.32% 10.72 7.33% 12.58 8.71% 16.58 11.36% 20 21 22 23 Global Primary Wheat Buyers Imports 000 MT 11/12 Egypt 11,650 China 2,933 Brazil 7,338 Indonesia 6,457 Algeria 6,500 Japan 6,354 European Union 7,368 Iran 800 Korea, South 5,188 Nigeria 3,931 United States 3,050 Mexico 5,020 Philippines 4,075 Turkey 3,847 Iraq 3,785 Yemen 2,685 Bangladesh 2,016 Saudi Arabia 2,904 Libya 1,561 Afghanistan 2,200 Morocco 3,713 World 149,324 12/13 8,300 2,960 7,358 7,146 6,484 6,598 5,264 6,169 5,439 4,140 3,341 3,826 3,645 3,622 3,949 3,149 2,719 1,921 2,050 1,600 3,833 144,627 Usage 13/14 10,500 8,500 7,400 7,200 6,500 6,200 4,000 4,500 4,500 4,200 4,627 4,300 3,400 3,700 3,200 3,100 3,300 2,700 2,050 2,000 2,000 151,997 11/12 18,600 122,500 11,200 6,250 8,950 6,400 127,234 15,500 5,181 3,551 32,112 7,600 3,650 18,100 6,359 3,100 4,000 4,000 1,672 4,700 8,800 688,852 12/13 18,700 125,000 10,900 6,650 9,450 6,900 120,000 16,400 5,196 3,970 38,269 6,625 3,785 17,500 6,060 3,249 4,000 3,150 2,162 5,740 8,300 686,673 13/14 19,100 125,500 11,400 7,065 9,850 6,800 118,750 17,000 4,744 3,835 34,959 6,500 3,745 17,750 6,400 3,350 4,300 3,300 2,162 6,045 8,700 696,605 Source: USDA, IAG 24 25 CME Corn: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report (Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds) Date 12/03/13 12/10/13 12/17/13 12/24/13 12/31/13 01/07/14 01/14/14 01/21/14 01/28/14 02/04/14 02/11/14 02/18/14 02/25/14 03/04/14 Net Index Spec Long Spec Short Net Spec Hedge Long Hedge Short Net Hedge Open Interest 372,877 369,230 363,949 361,890 356,873 357,291 417,608 415,716 414,636 410,117 396,151 398,890 394,714 405,136 192,395 187,743 186,053 185,712 185,701 190,591 192,942 189,737 188,236 211,803 218,465 225,459 247,711 263,594 380,353 353,006 361,463 342,634 349,480 345,196 344,298 336,046 321,303 284,387 255,137 246,236 210,676 171,026 -187,958 -165,263 -175,410 -156,922 -163,779 -154,605 -151,356 -146,309 -133,067 -72,584 -36,672 -20,777 37,035 92,568 398,405 398,581 404,707 390,032 404,574 404,449 409,793 420,582 427,266 414,362 422,182 443,203 400,756 379,479 464,906 485,642 475,003 468,418 466,553 473,047 538,101 545,660 566,333 608,959 634,171 684,199 685,438 734,932 -66,501 -87,061 -70,296 -78,386 -61,979 -68,598 -128,308 -125,078 -139,067 -194,597 -211,989 -240,996 -284,682 -355,453 1,521,559 1,536,489 1,550,962 1,524,435 1,531,779 1,563,886 1,646,323 1,680,673 1,660,475 1,686,048 1,729,744 1,774,313 1,652,554 1,689,545 26 27 CME Wheat: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report (Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds) Date 12/03/13 12/10/13 12/17/13 12/24/13 12/31/13 01/07/14 01/14/14 01/21/14 01/28/14 02/04/14 02/11/14 02/18/14 02/25/14 03/04/14 Net Index Spec Long Spec Short Net Spec Hedge Long Hedge Short Net Hedge Open Interest 139,535 136,941 129,035 122,855 122,052 121,826 123,218 121,227 120,099 123,548 124,433 126,718 122,196 124,213 82,060 77,051 76,881 80,104 82,062 84,808 84,305 84,906 83,912 87,603 85,284 81,827 74,992 73,019 181,565 181,047 180,201 182,533 185,876 186,442 174,817 174,635 179,917 177,609 167,831 152,599 129,661 112,625 -99,505 -103,996 -103,320 -102,429 -103,814 -101,634 -90,512 -89,729 -96,005 -90,006 -82,547 -70,772 -54,669 -39,606 87,200 93,237 97,298 100,437 103,314 103,312 95,628 108,720 119,645 116,969 111,969 97,550 78,395 63,352 107,860 106,525 104,448 102,462 105,471 106,532 111,038 123,109 130,716 139,894 142,130 143,568 132,780 135,010 -20,660 -13,288 -7,150 -2,025 -2,157 -3,220 -15,410 -14,389 -11,071 -22,925 -30,161 -46,018 -54,385 -71,658 453,589 465,509 488,060 503,814 500,015 508,765 537,899 572,239 571,942 570,981 569,751 556,645 473,752 452,194 28 29 30 This publication is intended for informational purposes only and the opinions set forth herein should not be viewed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or otherwise trade futures, options or securities. 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