Structure, Conduct and Performance of the Rice Market and the Impact of Technological Changes in Milling Institution Institute of Agribusiness and Development Studies (IADS) BAU, Mymensingh Research Team Professor Dr. Shankar Kumar Raha- PI Professor Dr. Md. Monjurul Alam – CI Md. Moniruzzaman – CI Dr. M. A. Awal - CI 1 1 Background and Rationale of the Research Project There has been concern over the efficient marketing system of rice in Bangladesh due to volatility of rice prices in domestic and international market Negative impacts on farmers and consumers No visible sign of any serious imperfection in rice market. Rapid technological changes in the rice milling. Impact of semi-automatic and automatic rice mills Increased volatility of international grain markets and the govt. policy of rice exporting countries necessitate to assess the integration of domestic and international markets. 2 Objectives of the Research Project 1. To provide evidence and provide new evidence on rice market structure, conduct and performance in Bangladesh and To analyze the impacts of technological changes in the rice milling sector on employment, financial viability of rice mills, market concentration, rice quality, and cost of milling 2. To construct detail estimates of costs and margins for key agents along the rice marketing chain in Bangladesh and to analyze market integration between domestic and international markets. 3. To suggest policy implications for improving market structure, conduct and performance. 3 Methodology The study is conducted by adopting the structure, conduct and performance approach (SCP). This technique was first formalized by Mason (1939) and his detailed case study approach was modified by Bain (1951). Market structure 4 Market conduct Market performance Methodology (Contd.) Area District Faria Bepari Aratdar Miller Aratdar Aratdar cum wholesal er cum wholesale r Paddy wholesal er Wholesal er cum retailer Retailer Importer Milled rice Key agents Dinajpur Surplus Rangpur Naogaon Bogra Sherpur Comilla Kushtia Deficit Sylhet Khulna Dhaka Noakhali Chittagong Total 5 15 0 3 2 0 1 16 0 0 0 2 0 39 17 13 27 15 1 3 2 7 2 10 4 5 134 13 16 21 6 32 3 7 0 7 1 5 2 112 20 10 20 8 15 2 25 2 2 2 2 2 110 0 3 1 0 4 0 0 0 6 16 0 0 30 6 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 24 5 3 10 15 8 10 17 11 8 10 12 20 129 8 4 0 0 2 14 4 9 9 5 6 5 66 11 13 11 7 8 1 8 5 3 11 10 15 103 2 3 5 Methodology (Contd.) (a) Estimation of market concentration 4 firm concentration ratio, Entropy index, and Gini coefficient (b) Financial viability of the mills was assessed by using NPV, IRR, BCR. (c) Calculation of marketing costs and margins was done by using standard formula (Kohls and Uhl, 2005) (d) Market integration Market integration was examined by applying co-integration method developed by Engle and Granger Data: monthly wholesale price from 1990 to 2011(domestic mkts). Data: monthly export price of rice from Thailand, Vietnam, and Eastern India converted into import parity price (2000 to 2011) 6 Overview of the structure, conduct and performance of rice market in Bangladesh Researcher Year Findings Farruk, 1970 He labeled the markets as oligopolistic as well as M.O. oligopsonistic but close observation of the functioning of this structure in the different markets did not support the prevalence of unethical market conduct. Islam et al 1987 The net return to all the functionaries in the channels was low due to intense competition. Excessive profit of the functionaries was not found. Capacity utilization of the mills varied from 40% to 65% at the peak period and 20% to 48% in low volume months. Chowdhury 1992 The market was found atomistic on both sides. The , N. aratdar-cum wholesalers were powerful in the rice market as they handled about 80% -90% of all rice. No excessive concentration was found in rice milling industry. 7 Overview of the structure, conduct and performance of rice market in Bangladesh contd. Rahman, 1998 No collusion among the sellers and buyers were S.M.S. observed but the millers complained about aratdars’ collusive activity. Siddique 2010 He found low level of concentration in the rice milling, The millers are price taker not price maker. , M.A.B. Performance of the rice milling industry was not good in terms of capacity utilization. Maximum mills are running with decades old machines. 8 Overview of the structure, conduct and performance of rice market in Bangladesh contd. Reardon 2012 et.al. 9 The sampled small and automatic mills were started in 1998 while medium/semi-automatic rice mills were started in 2000. The mills doubled in capacity by 2009. Rice milling was becoming more concentrated in medium and large mills and technology was changing. The uses of mills were highly seasonal. The millers and wholesalers were selling branded and labeled bags to traders. Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh Table1: Buyer concentration in paddy markets Name of the Market Market day Birganj, Dinajpur Sunday, Wednesday 40 -50 85 Abadpukur, Naogaon Sunday, Wednesday 90-100 85 Naimile Bazar, Bogra Sunday, Wednesday 15 -20 80 Kalampur, Dhaka Thursday 70-75 80 Ambari, Dinajpur Friday, Monday 35- 50 75 Nalita Bari, Sherpur Saturday, Tuesday 70- 75 75 Chandina, Comilla Tuesday, Friday 20-25 66 Shatibari Bazar, Rangpur Saturday, Wednesday 40 -50 60 Dhantara, Dhaka Monday 50-60 60 10 Average Concentration number of Four –Firm of buyers (%) Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh Table 1: Buyer concentration in paddy markets contd. 11 Fultala,Khulna Trimohini, Naogaon Sharua-Bottala Bazar ,Bogra Farmhat, Dinajpur Choudhurani, Rangpur Ailchara Bazar, Kushtia Haris Choudhury Bazar, Noakhali Dhara Bazar, Mymensingh Mirsharai, Chittagong Kalirghat, Kazir Bazar, Sylhet Sunday, Wednesday Saturday, Tuesday Sunday, Wednesday Saturday, Tuesday Sunday, Thursday Wednesday Monday, Friday Monday, Friday Monday, Tuesday No fixed day 45 -50 40- 50 40-50 70-80 60- 70 100-150 50-60 70 -80 30-40 25-30 58 57 55 51 50 45 38 36 35 32 Halsa, Kushtia Saturday , Tuesday 40- 50 30 12 Trimohini, Naogaon Fultala,Khulna Halsa, Kushtia Kalirghat, Kazir Bazar, Sylhet Mirsharai, Chittagong Dhara Bazar, Mymensingh Haris Choudhury Bazar, Noakhali Ailchara Bazar, Kushtia Choudhurani, Rangpur Farmhat, Dinajpur Sharua-Bottala Bazar ,Bogra Markets Dhantara, Dhaka Shatibari Bazar, Rangpur Chandina, Comilla Nalita Bari, Sherpur Ambari, Dinajpur Kalampur, Dhaka Naimile Bazar, Bogra 90 Abadpukur, Naogaon Birganj, Dinajpur 4 firm concentration (%) Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh Figure 1. Buyer concentration in paddy markets 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh 2. Entry barrier Table 2 : Problems for the new entrant as perceived by established traders Sl. No. Problems Faria Bepari 1 2 Suitable site for shop Shortage of rice supply Index 0.709 0.628 3 4 5 6 7 Insufficient capital Government permission Price fluctuation Competition among traders Bribery/ unofficial payment/ 0.932 0.189 0.432 0.588 0.382 I VIII VI V VII 0.906 0.188 0.372 0.670 0.378 I VIII VII IV VI 8 threats Business risk 0.699 III 0.682 III 13 Rank II IV Index 0.752 0.589 Rank II V Aratdar-cumwholesaler Index Rank 0.779 II 0.552 V 0.913 I 0.177 VIII 0.375 VII 0.641 IV 0.384 VI 0.684 III Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh 3. Degree of product differentiation (paddy) No deliberate effort is made to make the paddy differentiated in the market. 4. Distribution of market information No formal system exist for dissemination of market information. Paddy traders collect market information through their own effort. 14 Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh 5. Conduct at paddy market Table 3: Price setting mechanisms during buying and selling paddy Process/ Mechanism Bargaining between seller and buyer Set by seller Faria 37 Buying price Bepari Aratdar- cum- Faria wholesaler 136 (100.00) (97.14) 0 4 (2.86) 0 0 Set by buyer Predetermined 15 Selling price Bepari Aratdar- cumwholesaler 111 27 100 79 (96.52) (60.00) (62.11) (59.39) 3 (2.61 0 8 (17.78) 5 (11.11) 30 (18.63) 14 (8.70) 36 (27.07) 9 (6.77 1 (0.87) 5 (11.11) 17 (10.56) 9 (6.77) Structure, conduct and performance of paddy market in Bangladesh 6. Performance of paddy market Paddy market is operating smoothly throughout the country; Millers are getting paddy as much they need, though farmers are not getting reasonable price for their paddy. From farmers’ perspective, paddy market is not running in favour of them. 16 Market structure, conduct and performance of rice milling industry 1.1 Dimensions of market structure (4) Table 4. Seller concentration in rice mill industry Measure CR4 CR20 Entropy Index , (E) Gini –Coefficient Seller concentration in rice mills 0.69 % 2.16 % 3.60 ,Log n =3.66 0.243 1.2 Degree of product differentiation Product differentiation is exist buy does not create any significant for competition 17 Market structure, conduct and performance of rice milling industry contd. Table 5. Major problems for potential entrant as perceived by established mills SL Problems Automatic mill No. Index Rank Semi-auto mill Index Rank Husking mill Index Rank 1 Suitable site for mill 0.437 V 0.636 I 0.614 I 2 Shortage of paddy supply 0.000 - 0.045 VIII 0.105 VII 3 Shortage of supply of skilled manpower 0.637 II 0.627 II 0.548 III 4 Non availability of huge capital 0.487 IV 0.427 V 0.474 V 5 Obtaining Govt. permission 0.062 VII 0.172 VII 0.094 VIII 6 Lack of utilities (power supply, gas and water) 0.675 I 0.572 III 0.502 IV 7 Tough from 0.525 III 0.472 IV 0.557 II Non - availability of processing 0.150 VI 0.254 VI 0.191 VI competition established mill 8 plant 18 Market structure, conduct and performance of rice milling industry contd. Table 6. Reasons for exit from the market Reasons Automati Semi- Automatic Husking mills c mills mills Incurred a loss 14 (87.5) Shift the location 0 Shift to other business 2(12.5) Conflict among the partners 0 Left for abroad 4(25.0) Could not survive in the 8 (50.0) face of competition 19 Frequency of responses 22(91.67) 55(78.57) 2(8.33) 4(5.71) 11(45.83) 16(22.86) 2(8.33) 1 (1.43) 3(12.50) 0 19(79.17) 49 (17.00) Market structure, conduct and performance of rice milling industry contd. 2. Market conduct 2.1 Price Policies Selling price of rice is set independently Automatic rice mill owners are in better position in negotiation for setting price. In the case of husking and semi-automatic mills buyers are more powerful. 2.2 Product Policy With the changing of milling technology, millers are capable to process rice according their own choice and also to buyer’s choice Sometimes the millers supply rice with labeling as per direction of traderbuyers. 20 2.3 Policies aimed at coercing rivals No evidence of predatory and/or exclusionary tactics adopted by the established firms in rice market. 3. Performance-Dimensions Capacity utilization (%) Figure 2. Capacity utilization of rice mills 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 56.24 54.45 51.78 Automatic Semi-automatic Rice mill Size of selling cost Product quality Progressiveness of the industry Employment position Discrimination by sex 21 Husking Impact of technological changes in rice milling Number of husking rice mills are shrinking and the businesses are shifted either to semi-automatic or to automatic rice mills. The demand for quality rice (brightness, polishing, free from foreign particulars and black rice) and higher price encouraged semi-automatic and automatic rice mill owners to use the new technologies. The bran of semi-automatic and automatic rice mills have good demand in the edible oil mills Automatic rice mills have overcome the problem of rainy season and shortage of labour supply for processing of paddy. 22 Impact of technological changes in rice milling contd. Table 7: Milling cost and profit by different types of rice mill Type of rice mill Husking SemiAuto* SemiAuto** Auto rice mill* Auto rice mill** 23 Cost of paddy (Tk.) Milling cost (Tk./ton of rice) 24300 2601 25427 Byproduct Total return (Tk.) Profit (Tk.) Whole rice recovery % 26901 27000 2230 29230 2329 65.00 2943 28370 28500 2414 30914 2544 66.25 26016 3452 29468 30000 3448 33448 3980 64.75 25177 2563 27740 30000 3478 33478 5738 67.5 26361 3070 29431 32000 3712 35712 6281 66.00 *Without modern equipment **With modern equipment Total cost (Tk.) Return (Tk.) Rice Table 8. Employment in different rice mills Type of rice mill Husking Semi-Auto* SemiAuto** Auto rice mill* Auto rice mill** Labour, Tk/ton of paddy Staff cost, Tk/ton of paddy 403 403 483 147 168 216 14.17 14.17 15.67 100 173 116 101 *Without modern equipment **With modern equipment 24 Employment Labour, Labour, man-hr/ manton of days/yr paddy Staff, manhr/ton of paddy Staff, mandays/yr 2232 2274 3015 6.95 9.13 4.50 1095 1095 1460 3.20 3120 5.99 5840 3.95 5925 4.14 6205 Financial viability of the rice mills Type of mill IRR Husking rice 18.45% mill Semi-auto rice 25.23% mill Auto-rice mill 25 32.54% NPV(‘000Tk.) at 10% BCR (at 10%) 418 1.002 10325 1.046 117471 1.063 Farmer Faria Aratdar-cum-wholesaler Bepari Procurement centre Rice miller Aratdar Aratdar-cum-wholesaler Paddy processor Wholesaler Wholesaler-cum-retailer Retailer Government procurement Consumer Figure 3: Typical Marketing Channels of Paddy/ Rice in Bangladesh 26 Table 10. Marketing margins of paddy/rice for different actors (for 1 quintal of rice /and equivalent amount of paddy) Actors Faria Bepari Aratdar-cumwholesaler Gross margin Amount 114.91 111.00 93.67 Rice mill Aratdar(Rice) Wholesaler Wholesaler cum retailer Retailer Total 27 *only from rice marketing Marketing cost % 6.14 5.93 5.01 Amount 66.17 70.50 56.17 % 6.94 7.4 5.89 849.98 (524.10)* 27.81 216.02 261.53 45.40 45.20 1.49 11.50 14.00 430.38 (417.46)* 7.81 145.16 144.91 196.51 1871.43 10.50 100 31.90 953 ** Commission Net marketing margin Amount % 48.74 5.30 40.50 4.41 37.50 4.08 0.82 15.19 15.21 419.60 (106.64)* 20.00** 70.86 116.62 45.70 2.18 7.71 12.70 3.35 100 164.62 918.43 17.92 100 Figure 4: Marketing margins of paddy/rice for different actors (for 1 quintal of rice /and equivalent amount of paddy) 2000 1800 1600 196.51 Retailer 261.53 Wholesaler cum retailer 216.02 Wholesaler 1400 1200 27.81 Aratdar(Rice) 1000 800 849.98 600 145.16 7.81 400 430.38 200 0 28 31.9 144.91 93.67 111 114.91 56.17 70.5 66.17 Gross marketing margin Marketing cost 164.61 Rice mill 116.62 70.86 20 Aratdar 419.6 Bepari 37.5 40.5 48.74 Net margin Faria Share of different actors in gross marketing margin, marketing cost and net margin 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10.5 3.35 15.2 17.92 14 11.5 1.49 15.2 12.7 0.82 7.71 2.18 Retailer Wholesaler cum retailer Wholesaler Aratdar(Rice) 50% 40% 45.4 Rice mill 45.2 45.7 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.01 5.93 6.14 Gross marketing margin 29 Bepari 5.89 6.94 4.08 4.41 5.3 Marketing cost Net margin 7.4 Aratdar Faria in 2010 30 Map 6.1: Extent of rice surplus and deficit at district level in 2010 Integration of Rice market ADF test shows that all the rice price series were non-stationary 31 at level but stationary in their first differences. All the 12 districts rice markets found integrated Dhaka market is significantly integrated to all regional markets of rice markets in Bangladesh due to having the facility of infrastructure and information technology, which closely connected the markets to each other. Price move in the unison in all the markets together. Central price policy making will be effective in rice market. Rice market of Bangladesh , Eastern India, Vietnam and Thailand found integrated also Suggested policy options Paddy market Structure –Oligopsonistic and atomistic Formation of farmers’ marketing cooperative / group Development of market yard for paddy market as most of the paddy 32 markets sit along and /on the road Provision of credit facilities to paddy traders. The traders should have trading licenses. Conduct Cost of inputs in paddy production can be reduced through adopting cost reducing technologies and optimum utilization of machines. Arrangement to be made to disseminate paddy prices of different important markets through mobile phones. Display of buying prices of paddy on board by buyers Association / market committee on market. Suggested policy options contd. Rice mills Structure Husking mills should be modernized to semi-automatic/automatic rice mills. Profitable cases should be financed Conduct Development and introduction of quality standard for rice in the market The rice bag should contain minimum information about the product (name of the mill, its location, date of processing, number of boiling, net weight, variety of rice, millgate price). Labeling on the bag of rice should be mandatory Needs investigation of the nutritional aspects of milled rice after extracting bran to ensure the quality of rice 33 Suggested policy options contd. Performance Ensure regular and undisrupted power supply to rice mills Make available of spare parts at reasonable prices in markets Quality standard of the spare parts may be introduced Contractual arrangements btw. rice growers and millers Improvement in processing technology should be encouraged through providing various services (credit facility, technical knowledge and necessary permission) Installation of Engleberg rice huller in the country should be banned Vocational training programme helps to produce qualified personnel for operating automatic rice mills 34 Suggested policy options contd. Ensure optimum use of by-products such as husk, bran, broken rice, husk–ash. Wage discrimination by sex needs to be addressed. Arrangement of foreign visits particularly the rice exporting countries for the millers may help to change the attitudes to the business. FAO may sponsor such visits. Govt. should develop a complete and accurate data base on rice mills and market intermediaries. 35 36