Retail Overview
Q4 2010
Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10
R Watson
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Total Seafood Retail Market Slows
• In the 52 weeks to 25th December 2010 GB seafood retail market
was worth £2.840 billion, up 0.64% on last year.
GB seafood retail market by value MAT 20.03.10
2,860
2,840
Value / £millions
2,840
2,822
2,820
2,800
2,780
2,760
2,740
2,720
0.64%
2,716
2,700
3.88%
2,680
2,660
2,640
MAT TO WE 22.03.08
MAT TO WE 21.03.09
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
MAT TO WE 20.03.10
Chilled Sector Drives Value Growth
Value/ £000s
MAT TO WE 25.12.08
MAT TO WE 25.12.09
MAT TO WE 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
2,716,008
2,821,581
2,839,766
0.6
AMBIENT
464,347
509,995
486,547
-4.6
CHILLED
1,498,686
1,542,935
1,592,947
3.2
FROZEN
752,975
768,650
760,271
-1.1
TOTAL MEALS¹
199,428
204,747
211,430
3.3
TOTAL CHILLED MEALS
125,715
133,103
150,412
13.0
TOTAL FROZEN MEALS
73,712
71,644
61,018
-14.8
TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS
36,656
41,400
51,097
23.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH²
426,941
440,805
447,135
1.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH
463,597
482,205
498,232
3.3
TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH
14,481
14,103
13,618
-3.4
TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH
285,365
303,948
320,540
5.5
TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH
163,752
164,154
164,073
0.0
TOTAL SEAFOOD
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Total Seafood Retail Market Volume Falls
• In the year ending 25.12.2010, 377,468 tonnes of seafood was sold
in the GB retail market, falling -1%
GB seafood retail market by volume MAT 25.12.10
384,000
383,036
Volume / tonnes
383,000
382,000
381,130
381,000
380,000
-0.5%
379,000
377,468
378,000
377,000
-1%
376,000
375,000
374,000
MAT TO WE 25.12.08
MAT TO WE 25.12.09
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
MAT TO WE 25.12.10
Chilled Sector Drives Volume Growth
Volume (tonnes)
MAT TO WE 25.12.08
MAT TO WE 25.12.09
MAT TO WE 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL SEAFOOD
383,036
381,130
377,468
-1.0
AMBIENT
108,592
104,950
100,414
-4.3
CHILLED
135,859
140,884
142,980
1.5
FROZEN
138,585
135,295
134,074
-0.9
TOTAL MEALS¹
42,517
42,404
40,704
-4.0
TOTAL CHILLED MEALS
20,097
21,567
23,834
10.5
TOTAL FROZEN MEALS
22,419
20,837
16,869
-19.0
5,832
6,613
8,093
22.4
TOTAL SHELLFISH²
39,394
40,890
40,535
-0.9
TOTAL SHELLFISH
45,225
47,503
48,628
2.4
TOTAL AMBIENT SHELLFISH
1,560
1,525
1,452
-4.8
TOTAL CHILLED SHELLFISH
25,483
27,987
28,584
2.1
TOTAL FROZEN SHELLFISH
18,183
17,991
18,592
3.3
TOTAL SHELLFISH MEALS
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes
shellfish meals
¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Market Segmentation Remains Unchanged
Market share by value and volume, 52 w/e 25.12.10
100%
% Market share
90%
27%
36%
80%
70%
FROZEN
60%
50%
40%
56%
FRESH
38%
AMBIENT
30%
20%
10%
27%
17%
0%
% market share by value
% market share by volume
• Chilled seafood still accounts for 56% of the market by value. There
have been no significant changes in the segmentation of the
seafood market compared to Q4 2009
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Total Seafood De-values (Q4 2009 vs Q4 2010)
Value/ £000s
Q4: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO
26.12.09
25.12.10
% Chg
Volume/
tonnes
Q4: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO
26.12.09
25.12.10
% Chg
TOTAL
SEAFOOD
649,741
662,879
2
TOTAL
SEAFOOD
86,097
84,799
-2
CHILLED
360,197
371,952
3
CHILLED
32,639
31,941
-2
FROZEN
180,262
183,135
2
FROZEN
30,795
31,653
3
AMBIENT
109,282
107,791
-1
AMBIENT
22,663
21,204
-6
•
Q4 De-valuation lead by chilled and the strong de-valuation of Ambient
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Frozen Sales Rally in Final Quarter of 2010
Value/ £000s
Q3: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO
02.10.10
25.12.10
% Chg
Volume/
tonnes
Q3: 12 WKS TO Q4: 12 WKS TO
02.10.10
25.12.10
% Chg
TOTAL
SEAFOOD
640,243
662,879
4
TOTAL
SEAFOOD
85,508
84,799
-1
FRESH
356,346
371,952
4
FRESH
31,802
31,941
0
FROZEN
168,581
183,135
9
FROZEN
30,254
31,653
5
AMBIENT
115,316
107,791
-7
AMBIENT
23,451
21,204
-10
• Overall seafood sales for Q4 2010 are up compared to Q3, with only
Ambient performing poorly
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Chilled Market Segmentation
% share of value
4%
4%
3%
1% 0.1%
% share of volume
9%
6%
5% 2% 1%
0.1%
CHILLED NATURAL
CHILLED PREPARED
52%
42%
16%
CHILLED SAUCE
CHILLED CAKES
28%
CHILLED BREADED
28%
CHILLED SUSHI
CHILLED BATTER
CHILLED FINGERS
MAT 25.12.2010
• Chilled Natural and Prepared are the largest segments in the Chilled
sector with a combined 80% of the Chilled market by value and 70%
by volume
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Frozen Market Segmentation
% share of value
% share of volume
3%
7%
27%
14%
6%
5%
FROZEN NATURAL
20%
FROZEN FINGERS
16%
16%
FROZEN BATTER
17%
21%
15%
16%
17%
FROZEN BREADED
FROZEN SAUCE
FROZEN PREPARED
FROZEN CAKES
MAT 25.12.2010
• Segments in the frozen sector are much more evenly spread
• Natural has the largest share of the market by value
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Chilled Segment Driven by Chilled Prepared
Value/ £000s
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
1,498,686
1,542,935
1,592,947
3.2
CHILLED NATURAL
815,041
824,284
825,998
0.2
CHILLED PREPARED
390,511
412,784
444,402
7.7
CHILLED SAUCE
126,596
128,367
144,927
12.9
CHILLED CAKES
60,550
65,405
64,478
-1.4
CHILLED BREADED
50,048
53,899
57,230
6.2
CHILLED SUSHI
40,897
47,154
45,868
-2.7
CHILLED BATTER
13,671
9,817
8,504
-13.4
CHILLED FINGERS
598
446
866
94.4
TOTAL CHILLED
• Prepared and Sauce are also showing good growth up 7.7% and
12.9% respectively
• Fingers are growing at +94% (albeit from a small base) up further
from the 77% in Q3
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
Chilled Volume Growth Slows
Volume/ tonnes
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL CHILLED
135,859
140,884
142,980
1.5
CHILLED NATURAL
61,945
62,675
59,638
-4.8
CHILLED
PREPARED
35,121
37,473
40,196
7.3
CHILLED SAUCE
19,787
20,375
22,628
11.1
CHILLED CAKES
7,759
8,837
8,468
-4.2
CHILLED BREADED
6,240
6,573
7,244
10.2
CHILLED SUSHI
2,967
3,539
3,534
-0.2
CHILLED BATTER
1,749
1,162
1,012
-12.9
CHILLED FINGERS
69
52
99
89.0
• Chilled volume growth is slowing with Natural, Cakes, Sushi & Batter
and in decline.
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
Frozen Segment in Decline
Value/ £000s
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL FROZEN
752,975
768,650
760,271
-1.1
FROZEN NATURAL
191,959
209,124
206,784
-1.1
FROZEN FINGERS
124,157
129,867
127,833
-1.6
FROZEN BATTER
125,610
121,886
123,560
1.4
FROZEN BREADED
132,936
122,963
123,143
0.1
FROZEN SAUCE
98,890
107,746
102,962
-4.4
FROZEN PREPARED
59,107
56,260
54,956
-2.3
FROZEN CAKES
20,316
20,745
20,981
1.1
• Frozen Sauce halts its growth on the back of NPD push
• Frozen Batter and Frozen Breaded have stabilised after a period of
decline
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
Frozen Volume Decline Stabilises
Volume/ tonnes
MAT 2YA
MAT YA
MAT TY to 25.12.10
MAT % Chg YA
TOTAL FROZEN
138,585
135,295
134,074
-0.9
FROZEN NATURAL
25,356
26,000
26,690
2.7
FROZEN FINGERS
29,565
28,871
28,616
-0.9
FROZEN BATTER
21,277
20,829
22,104
6.1
FROZEN BREADED
20,785
19,538
20,660
5.7
FROZEN SAUCE
27,518
26,060
21,957
-15.7
FROZEN PREPARED
8,558
8,388
8,050
-4.0
FROZEN CAKES
5,527
5,598
5,985
6.9
• Although frozen Sauce sales remain steady the decline in volume
may indicate the market is becoming more premium than the
traditional products they replace
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
Three Year Value Trends
12 weekly value trends '07 to 25.12.10
800
700
Value/ millions
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
WE 01.12.07
WE 17.05.08
WE 01.11.08
TOTAL
WE 18.04.09
AMBIENT
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
WE 03.10.09
CHILLED
WE 20.03.10
FROZEN
WE 02.10.10
Three Year Volume Trends
12 weekly volume trends '07 to 25.12.10
100,000
Volume/tonnes
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
WE 01.12.07
WE 17.05.08
WE 01.11.08
TOTAL
WE 18.04.09
AMBIENT
Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
WE 03.10.09
CHILLED
WE 20.03.10
FROZEN
WE 02.10.10
Top 5 Species by Sector – to 24.12.10
RANK
•New
TOTAL FISH
SALMON
TUNA
COD
HADDOCK
WARM WATER PRAWNS
COLD
WATER
PRAWNS
TOTAL
FRESH
MACKEREL
SALMON
POLLOCK
WARM WATER
PRAWNS
SCAMPI
COD
SARDINES
HADDOCK
TROUT
COLD WATER
PRAWNS
SOLE
MACKEREL
TOTAL
FROZEN
PLAICE
TUNA
COD
SEA
BASS
TROUT
HADDOCK
MUSSELS
SOLE
POLLOCK
KIPPER
SEA
BASS
WARMCRABSTICK
WATER
PLAICEPRAWNS
SCAMPI
SCALLOPS
MUSSELS
COLD
WATER
PRAWNS
CRAB
TOTAL
AMBIENT
CRABSTICK
SALMON
BASA
KIPPER
TUNA
BASA
ANCHOVY
SCALLOPS
SALMON
PLAICE
PILCHARDS
CRAB
SARDINES
SOLE
HERRING
SCAMPI
MACKEREL
COLEY
COLEY
HERRING
PILCHARDS
TUNA
SQUID
(CALAMARI)
MONKFISH
ANCHOVY
SCALLOPS
TOTAL
FROZEN
New Species
Frozen
MONKFISH
SEA
BREAM
CRAB
KIPPER
COCKLES
SQUID
(CALAMARI)
COCKLES
POLLOCK
SEA
BASS
SEA
BREAM
BASA
KIPPER
SEA
BASS
HAKE
HAKE
HALIBUT
HERRING
BASA
SQUID
(CALAMARI)
LOBSTER
ANCHOVY
MUSSELS
COLEY
CRABSTICK
HALIBUT
POLLOCK
COD
ROE
LOBSTER
SQUID
(CALAMARI)
SKATE/RAY
SKATE/RAY
SILD
MUSSELS
CRAYFISH
HAKE
CRAYFISH
CAVIAR
MACKEREL
WHITING
LOBSTER
OYSTERS
TILAPIA
species OCTOPUS
COCKLES
TILAPIA
WHITING
LANGOUSTINE
SARDINES
SARDINES
LOBSTER
OCTOPUS
DAB
HAKE
HERRING
ROE
CARP
LANGOUSTINE
SQUIDTILAPIA
(CALAMARI)
WHITING
MEGRIM
COLEYPRAWNS
WARM WATER
CRAB
CHAR
SWORDFISH
CLAMS
TILAPIA
EEL
SPRATS
CATFISH
TROUT
COLDBARRAMUNDI
WATER PRAWNS
SWORDFISH
SALMON
ROE
WHELKS
CHAR
1
2
3
4
RANK
5
6
7
1
8
2
9
3
10
4
11
5
RANK
12
6
13
7
1
14
8
2
15
9
3
16
10
4
17
11
5
18
RANK
12
6
19
13
7
20
14
1
8
21
15
2
9
22
16
3
10
23
17
4
11
24
18
5
RANK
12
25
19
6
13
26
20
7
14
27
21
8
1
15
28
22
9
2
16
29
23
10
3
17
30
24
11
4
18
31
25
12
19
5
32
26
13
20
33
6
27
14
21
34
28
15
7
22
35
29
16
8
23
30
17
9
24
31
18
10
25
32
19
26
11
33
20
27
12
34
21
28
35
22
13
29
23
14
30
24
15
31
VALUE £000'S
MAT -2
MAT -1
2,729,547
2,836,941
592,704
626,386
318,512
357,164
342,525
316,163
VALUE £000'S
209,685
213,878
MAT -2
MAT -1
172,020
185,558
164,455
166,017
1,517,750
1,556,252
91,128
94,049
469,334
491,080
56,567
77,233
129,969
133,461
57,113
58,332
127,273
123,202
33,126
35,075
118,068
119,752
VALUE £000'S
42,989
40,388
106,774
112,546
MAT -2
MAT -1
27,863
27,129
62,481
62,897
750,000
771,460
32,858
29,605
41,011
36,877
215,147
192,923
22,855
23,533
42,393
39,365
91,617
94,126
19,264
23,443
23,619
22,408
48,109
68,885
16,296
18,821
19,825
20,599
41,678
51,847
VALUE £000'S
19,020
17,731
22,914
20,864
52,548
52,976
13,987
14,663
MAT
-2
MAT
-1
15,613
20,894
57,434
53,311
15,575
14,909
461,797
509,230
17,897
16,734
30,292
42,915
5,611
8,425
11,201
13,585
273,663
316,717
1,542
4,906
9,238
10,068
9,137
9,850
93,079
92,390
9,943
8,741
6,604
7,684
9,363
8,578
31,077
33,083
4,244
4,721
8,423
7,931
4,565
5,356
28,466
30,630
VALUE
£000'S
6,409
5,648
8,428
7,661
6,380
6,072
6,604
7,684
MAT
-2
MAT
-1
3,838
3,571
4,967
4,489
5,067
5,026
6,578
6,547
4,815
4,787
108,592
131,634
5,337
5,075
4,210
4,377
6,178
6,236
2,930
3,140
4,703
4,853
2,236
2,393
3,963
4,048
56,567
77,233
3,030
2,934
4,210
4,426
4,069
3,519
2,165
2,096
22,855
23,533
1,336
3,952
5,112
7,178
4,525
3,477
2,043
1,859
5,611
8,425
2,517
1,892
5,133
3,844
2,660
3,520
2,052
1,882
8,428
7,661
1,123
996
4,581
3,477
8,458
8,348
1,346
1,605
1,189
648
4,967
4,489
3,263
3,013
3,263
3,013
853
1,162
1,599
667
5,074
4,791
5,112
7,178
4,992
4,791
765
801
181
523
2,238
2,460
3,677
2,955
592
516
2,831
1,690
211
213
2,831
1,690
2,025
2,187
384
360
992
638
488
249
1,561
1,743
267
242
507
515
431
349
3,776
3,226
204
199
56
71
706
296
2,816
1,658
214
203
213
274
54
68
2,018
2,013
373
250
34
95
260
106
2,100
1,740
222
177
15
32
1,498
1,493
116
161
11
6
596
1,024
247
159
340
19
3
10
0
0
2
2
250
99
LAT MAT
2,859,249
631,145
335,844
317,775
225,358
LAT
MAT
200,698
166,387
1,612,162
98,194
500,708
85,912
145,996
61,736
129,421
35,573
124,123
33,744
114,316
LAT MAT
28,283
64,844
761,485
28,141
34,078
188,348
24,158
33,717
101,235
23,164
23,247
82,495
19,032
21,814
54,516
18,998
21,184
52,869
15,986
LAT
MAT
20,740
51,927
15,415
485,601
17,873
46,691
12,140
13,999
298,176
7,999
10,941
12,463
83,746
6,957
7,599
9,402
33,125
5,036
7,363
8,866
33,054
4,853
6,635
5,272
7,599
LAT
MAT
3,589
5,738
5,027
7,363
3,488
142,091
5,027
4,262
5,920
2,824
4,630
4,230
4,035
85,912
2,343
4,262
4,142
2,209
24,158
2,142
4,210
3,841
2,091
12,140
1,309
4,053
3,578
1,948
6,635
1,125
3,841
3,417
1,635
793
5,738
3,052
3,052
1,237
475
3,011
4,210
3,011
552
296
2,330
3,000
476
1,911
295
1,911
2,216
341
660
287
2,161
260
577
271
2,068
251
76
141
1,848
199
114
59
1,782
186
93
14
1,316
174
63
1,248
168
0
27
144
0
6
140
01
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
RANK
2
1
3
4
RANK
7
5
81
63
10
6
95
13
2
RANK
17
4
16
12
1
18
9
3
12
14
2
14
13
7
11
11
5
23
RANK
8
4
21
7
6
19
10
1
8
25
17
2
9
15
19
3
12
20
16
4
10
22
15
5
RANK
13
27
32
8
16
34
21
6
11
24
22
7
1
18
28
18
10
2
15
26
30
9
3
17
30
24
11
4
14
32
20
12
21
6
33
31
13
20
29
5
23
22
22
31
29
18
7
26
35
26
19
9
19
25
24
8
23
27
17
11
27
34
21
24
10
28
15
25
12
35
14
28
33
16
13
29
20
14
31
26
15
30
VOLUME 000's KGs
MAT -2
MAT -1
384,298
379,526
50,703
49,433
75,555
74,783
45,596
40,953
VOLUME 000's
KGs
22,700
23,535
MAT
-2
MAT
-1
13,439
14,837
18,763
18,017
135,978
139,618
15,788
15,435
31,137
31,905
12,629
16,204
9,216
9,657
5,885
6,229
8,461
8,508
8,517
8,198
8,915
9,656
VOLUME 000's KGs
4,723
4,336
11,280
11,562
MAT -2
MAT -1
1,933
1,903
10,220
10,349
138,492
135,380
3,455
3,005
2,148
1,928
37,121
32,441
1,317
1,439
4,673
4,242
13,786
13,879
3,312
4,348
1,522
1,436
11,309
15,033
3,345
3,541
1,139
1,275
4,170
5,131
VOLUME
000's4,320
KGs
5,339
2,091
1,871
5,568
5,771
655 -2
718 -1
MAT
MAT
2,744
3,955
7,451
6,434
1,097
1,022
109,828
104,529
4,997
4,040
3,997
5,314
678
1,049
2,390
2,593
72,924
72,415
209
668
522
563
360
395
15,569
12,214
1,364
1,134
4,285
3,834
522
431
8,237
7,947
411
467
1,524
1,389
317
458
5,549
5,030
VOLUME
000's
KGs
1,083
954
1,226
1,092
1,112
1,026
4,285
3,834
MAT
-2
MAT
-1
483
440
579
418
135
108
362
364
293
322
17,366
21,195
146
110
284
326
573
576
541
575
711
762
190
165
475
489
12,629
16,204
178
164
284
331
469
380
414
373
1,317
1,439
206
546
591
802
169
102
412
362
678
1,049
370
236
179
141
160
199
282
267
1,226
1,092
342
280
171
102
1,320
1,171
288
249
76
42
579
418
113
102
113
102
112
121
285
127
421
366
591
802
416
366
23
22
19
56
153
179
89
87
30
26
119
76
11
13
119
76
110
123
29
25
99
47
90
85
191
167
14
11
36
35
41
29
385
256
29
18
2
2
90
38
116
69
19
17
43
57
4
5
143
138
53
48
2
15
28
16
82
75
55
41
3
7
113
108
29
33
1
0
50
93
32
21
57
8
0
1
0
0
0
0
27
16
LAT MAT
377,406
46,801
72,055
42,309
26,797
LAT
MAT
16,288
17,912
143,196
15,864
30,091
17,627
10,859
7,056
9,392
8,280
10,435
3,691
11,230
LAT MAT
1,980
10,467
133,395
2,839
1,599
32,916
1,682
3,688
16,361
4,368
1,530
17,185
3,588
1,545
5,395
4,687
1,895
6,215
800
LAT
MAT
3,981
6,664
1,026
100,814
4,380
5,816
1,472
2,738
70,042
992
613
559
10,894
944
3,471
474
7,957
450
1,202
840
5,368
769
885
845
3,471
LAT
MAT
413
399
95
411
239
22,646
95
298
532
507
645
237
488
17,627
137
298
481
343
1,682
292
411
105
357
1,472
146
183
201
281
885
307
105
442
236
59
399
102
102
119
106
216
411
216
14
28
151
113
22
90
19
90
130
22
33
125
198
11
38
23
119
23
2
19
77
17
20
7
116
34
19
1
57
36
13
94
30
0
2
18
0
0
1
00
MAT % CHG
VALUE
VOLUME
0.8
-0.6
0.8
-5.3
-6.0
-3.6
0.5
3.3
5.4MAT % CHG
13.9
VALUE
VOLUME
8.2
9.8
0.2
-0.6
3.6
2.6
4.4
2.8
2.0
-5.7
11.2
8.8
9.4
12.4
5.8
13.3
5.0
10.4
1.4
1.0
3.6
8.1
MAT % CHG
-16.5
-14.9
1.6
-2.9
VALUE
VOLUME
4.3
4.0
3.1
1.1
-1.3
-1.5
-4.9
-5.5
-7.6
-17.1
-2.4
1.5
2.7
16.9
-14.3
-13.1
7.6
17.9
-1.2
0.5
3.7
6.5
19.8
14.3
1.1
1.3
5.9
21.2
5.1
5.1
MAT % CHG
7.1
8.5
1.5
1.3
-0.2
7.7
9.0
11.5
VALUE
VOLUME
-0.7
0.7
-2.6
3.6
3.4
0.3
-4.6
-3.6
6.8
8.4
8.8
9.5
44.1
40.4
3.1
5.6
-5.9
-3.3
63.0
48.3
8.7
8.8
26.5
41.7
-9.4
-10.8
-20.4
-16.7
-1.1
-9.5
9.6
10.0
0.1
0.1
6.7
-3.8
-7.2
-13.4
65.5
83.3
7.9
6.7
MAT
%
CHG
-14.1
-19.4
-13.4
-19.0
-13.2
-17.7
-1.1
-9.5
VALUE
VOLUME
0.5
-6.0
27.8
-4.7
0.0
-11.9
12.5
13.0
-27.1
-25.6
7.9
6.8
-1.0
-13.6
-2.6
-8.5
-5.1
-7.6
-10.1
-11.9
-4.6
-15.4
76.8
43.4
-0.3
-0.1
11.2
8.8
-20.1
-16.8
-3.7
-9.8
17.7
26.4
5.4
-8.0
2.7
16.9
-45.8
-46.5
-41.4
-48.7
10.5
3.5
12.5
-1.4
44.1
40.4
-30.8
-38.4
5.4
30.0
1.6
1.1
3.5
5.6
-13.4
-19.0
12.9
9.7
10.5
3.5
-59.1
-62.2
1.8
-5.0
22.4
37.8
27.8
-4.7
1.3
0.1
1.3
0.1
6.5
-1.7
-28.8
-16.5
-37.2
-40.8
-41.4
-48.7
-37.2
-40.8
-31.1
-36.8
-43.5
-49.0
-5.3
-16.1
1.5
29.8
-7.8
-14.2
13.1
18.5
38.5
49.2
13.1
18.5
1.3
6.1
-5.2
-11.6
3.4
-30.2
15.1
47.0
24.0
18.7
7.5
1.4
12.0
6.3
-22.5
-20.3
-35.9
-53.4
26.0
23.9
7.0
-13.3
-52.2
-50.9
11.5
10.7
-2.1
-3.2
-58.2
-64.3
-13.4
42.8
-11.5
-16.5
-25.3
-29.8
-1.9
25.3
-87.0
-95.8
-24.3
-24.8
-1.7
-12.3
92.8
99.7
-16.4
-12.4
4.6
-7.6
-93.0
-88.8
-97.4
-97.6
-9.6
-16.2
-99.5
-99.8
-40.5
-59.1
544446.3
280520.0
-98.5
-98.5
-98.7
-98.3
Limited Supply Keeps Salmon Prices
High (Q3 vs Q4 2010)
Value (£'000)
Q3 (to 02/10/2010) Q4 (to 25/12/10)
Volume (tonnes)
% change
Q3 (to 02/10/2010) Q4 (to 25/12/10)
% change
TOTAL SALMON
139,515
154,549
11
10,154
10,840
7
CHILLED SALMON
110,061
124,086
13
6,360
6,970
10
AMBIENT
SALMON
19,161
20,368
6
2,456
2,604
6
FROZEN SALMON
10,293
10,095
-2
1,339
1,267
-5
• Norwegian Salmon export prices rose 20.2% in 2010 ( Globefish)
•By the close of 2010 the Chilean industry is showing signs
of recovery. But continued demand and limited supply will
keep prices high into 2011
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Share of Trade Analysis - November 2010 (52 Weeks)
35.0%
Share of Grocery
Share of Seafood
31.3%
30.0%
28.1%
20.0%
17.4% 17.6%
16.5%
15.0%
13.5% 13.2% 13.7%
10.0%
6.6%
5.6%
4.7%
5.0%
2.7%
5.4%
3.0%
2.3%
2.1%
1.1% 1.0%
2.3%
1.8%
2.9% 2.6%
1.0% 0.8%
Retailer
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
NETTO
LIDL
ALDI
M&S
TOTAL COOP
ICELAND
SOMERFIELD
WAITROSE
MORRISONS
ASDA
SAINSBURY
0.0%
TESCO
% Share
25.0%
Share of Trade Analysis - Chilled Seafood - November 2010 (52 Weeks)
35.0%
31.3%
Share of Grocery
30.0%
27.0%
25.0%
21.0%
% Share
20.0%
17.4%
16.5%
15.0%
13.2%13.7%
11.9%
10.4%
9.0%
10.0%
4.7%
5.0%
3.0% 2.6%
2.1%
2.7%
1.1% 0.9%
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.1%
1.3% 1.0%
0.3%
Retailer
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
NETTO
LIDL
ALDI
M&S
TOTAL COOP
ICELAND
SOMERFIELD
WAITROSE
MORRISONS
ASDA
SAINSBURY
TESCO
0.0%
Share of Trade Analysis - Frozen Seafood - November 2010 (52 Weeks)
35.0%
31.3%
30.0%
Share of Grocery
29.0%
25.0%
% Share
20.0%
17.4%
14.7%
15.0%
16.5%
14.4%
13.7%
13.2%
12.0%
10.0%
4.7% 4.2%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1% 1.0%
3.0%
3.3%
2.3% 2.8% 2.9%
1.8% 2.1% 1.4%
1.0% 0.8%
Retailer
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
NETTO
LIDL
ALDI
M&S
TOTAL COOP
ICELAND
SOMERFIELD
WAITROSE
MORRISONS
ASDA
SAINSBURY
TESCO
0.0%
Q4 Trends analysis
• Total seafood value grew by 4% in Q4, principally driven by an 11%
increase in total Salmon. Caused by seasonal demand and easing
of supply. (2.0% over 52 wks)
• Compared to Q3, the value of chilled sector grew by 4% and frozen
by 9%. With ambient falling by -7%.
• Compared to Q4 2009, the value of the chilled sector is up +2%,
with both chilled and frozen up by 2% and 3% respectively.
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Summary 2010
•
•
•
In the 52 weeks to 25th Dec 2010 the GB seafood retail market slowed.
Worth £2.839 billion, up 0.6% on last year, with volume sales falling -1.0%
to 377,468 tonnes.
This modest value growth was driven by the chilled sector (3.2%) by
positive growth in the top 3 chilled species: salmon (2%), Warm Water
Prawns (9.4%), and Cod (5%).
Both the value and volume of ambient fell sharply (-4.6% and -4.3%
respectively), as a result of a corresponding fall in the volume and value of
tuna and salmon. Wholesale skipjack prices rose by nearly 100% at the
beginning of 2010 (Infofish Trade News) . With the recent reduction in catch quota,
rising demand from new markets (Asia) and uncertainty over oil and tinplate
prices, further price increases are predicted for 2011 (Globefish)
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Summary…….
•
•
•
•
•
Both the value and volume of frozen fell (-1.1 and -0.9% respectively),
driven by corresponding falls in frozen natural, frozen fingers and frozen
sauce.
Chilled fingers continue their rapid value growth up +94%, from 77% in Q3
albeit still from a small base.
The popularity of chilled meals continues, with value up 13%. Whilst frozen
meals have experienced a corresponding fall.
Shellfish meals increased by +23%.
The chilled shellfish category continues to perform well, whilst frozen
shellfish and ambient shellfish are steady or in decline.
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
What Does 2011 hold?
• Changing global dynamics as ‘new’ markets (Russia, Brazil,
Mexico, Middle East & West Africa, displacing EU, USA and
Japan, creating new opportunities
• Salmon: Chilean ISA crisis settles, brisk demand and limited
supply will keep prices high
• Groundfish: Sustainability, pushed to counter falling prices
resulting from pressure from Tilapia and Pangasius
• Tuna: Reduced quota and increased canning costs to drive
prices
• Prawns: High demands and low harvests continue to drive
costs
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Global Market 2010
Globefish Highlights and
European Price reports are
available from:
http://www.globefish.org/pricereports.html
And will be available free from
the Seafood Information Network
in Summer 2011
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Definitions
•
•
•
•
All data is sourced to Nielsen Scan Track EPOS (till roll data).
MAT = moving annual total – 52 weeks
Segment definitions
– Sushi – include all sushi, where fish & seafood are contained within.
– Fingers – include all fish & seafood which are described as fingers.
– Cakes – include all fish & seafood which are described as cakes.
– Sauce – include all fish & seafood which is described as being in a sauce.
– Batter –include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in batter or battered.
– Breaded – include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in breadcrumbs or
breaded.
– Prepared – include all fish & seafood which has been treated/prepared in some way and is
not included within the above values. Eg all fish & seafood sticks including sticks with a
dipping sauce.
– Natural – include all fish & seafood which has not been treated in any way.
– The Cake or Finger value is a more important value, than Batter or Breaded.
All segments can be further broken down into smoked/unsmoked and organic/standard
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future
Seafish Market Information Index
Nielsen Reports on the Seafood Information Network ( 10 new reports pcm):
•Main SIN Marketing Department Services page
•Nielsen Grocery Reports: Nielsen Retail Performance & Nielsen Essential Retail reports
•Nielsen Retail Market Tracking Data: Ambient, context, prawn, cod, chilled, smoked, scampi & langoustine & salmon reports
•Food Service Reports to Dec 10
Reports On Seafish.org ( 7 new reports pcm):
Main Market Planning publications page
•Total seafood imports/exports by country (Seafish web resources are currently being rationalised. Latest Import
Information is now on the Seafood Information Network here)
•Imports/exports by species and country
•Imports/exports by species and presentation
•Cod haddock and prawn imports by top chilled and frozen codes (a new report that breaks out the top chilled and frozen
codes (by value) for cod, haddock and prawns by country of origin)
Key Reports & Information:
Retail market overview 2010
Protein comparisons March 2010.
2009 Seafood Supply Chain
Trade Summary 2009
Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2010/05/26113316
Worldwide seafood production data - see FAO website: http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/programme/3,1,1/en
supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future