Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Chapter 21 Options Valuation Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-1 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Option Values Intrinsic value - profit that could be made if the option was immediately exercised - Call: stock price - exercise price - Put: exercise price - stock price Time value - the difference between the option price and the intrinsic value Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-2 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Time Value of Options: Call Option value Value of Call Intrinsic Value Time value X Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-3 Stock Price The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Factors Influencing Option Values: Calls Factor Stock price Exercise price Volatility of stock price Time to expiration Interest rate Dividend Rate Irwin/McGraw-Hill Effect on value increases decreases increases increases increases decreases 21-4 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Restrictions on Option Value: Call Value cannot be negative Value cannot exceed the stock value Value of the call must be greater than the value of levered equity C > S0 - ( X + D ) / ( 1 + R f )T C > S0 - PV ( X ) - PV ( D ) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-5 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Allowable Range for Call Call Value Lower Bound = S0 - PV (X) - PV (D) S0 PV (X) + PV (D) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-6 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Binomial Option Pricing: Text Example 200 75 100 C 50 0 Call Option Value X = 125 Stock Price Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-7 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Binomial Option Pricing: Text Example 150 Alternative Portfolio Buy 1 share of stock at $100 Borrow $46.30 (8% Rate) Net outlay $53.70 Payoff Value of Stock 50 200 Repay loan - 50 -50 Net Payoff 0 150 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 53.70 0 Payoff Structure is exactly 2 times the Call 21-8 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Binomial Option Pricing: Text Example 150 53.70 75 C 0 0 2C = $53.70 C = $26.85 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-9 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Another View of Replication of Payoffs and Option Values Alternative Portfolio - one share of stock and 2 calls written (X = 125) Portfolio is perfectly hedged Stock Value 50 200 Call Obligation 0 -150 Net payoff 50 50 Hence 100 - 2C = 46.30 or C = 26.85 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-10 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Generalizing the Two-State Approach Fourth Edition Assume that we can break the year into two sixmonth segments In each six-month segment the stock could increase by 10% or decrease by 5% Assume the stock is initially selling at 100 Possible outcomes Increase by 10% twice Decrease by 5% twice Increase once and decrease once (2 paths) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-11 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Generalizing the Two-State Approach 121 110 104.50 100 95 90.25 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-12 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Expanding to Consider Three Intervals Assume that we can break the year into three intervals For each interval the stock could increase by 5% or decrease by 3% Assume the stock is initially selling at 100 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-13 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Expanding to Consider Three Intervals S+++ S++ S++- S+ S+- S S+-S- S-S--- Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-14 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Possible Outcomes with Three Intervals Event Probability Stock Price 3 up 1/8 100 (1.05)3 =115.76 2 up 1 down 3/8 100 (1.05)2 (.97) =106.94 1 up 2 down 3/8 100 (1.05) (.97)2 = 98.79 3 down 1/8 100 (.97)3 = 91.27 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-15 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Black-Scholes Option Valuation Co = SoN(d1) - Xe-rTN(d2) d1 = [ln(So/X) + (r + 2/2)T] / (T1/2) d2 = d1 + (T1/2) where Co = Current call option value. So = Current stock price N(d) = probability that a random draw from a normal dist. will be less than d. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-16 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Black-Scholes Option Valuation X = Exercise price. e = 2.71828, the base of the nat. log. r = Risk-free interest rate (annualizes continuously compounded with the same maturity as the option) T = time to maturity of the option in years ln = Natural log function Standard deviation of annualized cont. compounded rate of return on the stock Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-17 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Call Option Example So = 100 X = 95 r = .10 T = .25 (quarter) = .50 d1 = [ln(100/95) + (.10+(5 2/2))] / (5 .251/2) = .43 d2 = .43 + ((5.251/2) = .18 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-18 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Probabilities from Normal Dist N (.43) = .6664 Table 17.2 d N(d) .42 .6628 .43 .6664 Interpolation .44 .6700 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-19 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Probabilities from Normal Dist. N (.18) = .5714 Table 17.2 d N(d) .16 .5636 .18 .5714 .20 .5793 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-20 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Call Option Value Co = SoN(d1) - Xe-rTN(d2) Co = 100 X .6664 - 95 e- .10 X .25 X .5714 Co = 13.70 Implied Volatility Using Black-Scholes and the actual price of the option, solve for volatility. Is the implied volatility consistent with the stock? Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-21 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Put Option Valuation: Using Put-Call Parity P = C + PV (X) - So = C + Xe-rT - So Using the example data C = 13.70X = 95 S = 100 r = .10 T = .25 P = 13.70 + 95 e -.10 X .25 - 100 P = 6.35 Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-22 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Adjusting the Black-Scholes Model for Dividends The call option formula applies to stocks that pay dividends One approach is to replace the stock price with a dividend adjusted stock price Replace S0 with S0 - PV (Dividends) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-23 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Using the Black-Scholes Formula Hedging: Hedge ratio or delta The number of stocks required to hedge against the price risk of holding one option Call = N (d1) Put = N (d1) - 1 Option Elasticity Percentage change in the option’s value given a 1% change in the value of the underlying stock Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-24 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999 Bodie Kane INVESTMENTS Marcus Fourth Edition Portfolio Insurance - Protecting Against Declines in Stock Value Buying Puts - results in downside protection with unlimited upside potential Limitations - Tracking errors if indexes are used for the puts - Maturity of puts may be too short - Hedge ratios or deltas change as stock values change Irwin/McGraw-Hill 21-25 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999