The Rise of Urban America
Public Policy Urban Affairs (PPUA) G6201
The 21st Century City:
Urban Opportunities and Challenges in a Global
Context
Presentation of:
Mary Huff Stevenson (UMass Boston)
Russ Williams (Wheaton College)
Urban America in the 19th
Century
Mary
Russ
Economic and Biological Push Factors Affecting Migration from Farms to Cities
1874-76
Grasshopper plagues destroy crops in Western U. S.
Late 1870s and 1880s
Wheat, corn and cotton prices fall; many small farmers lose their farms.
1886-87
Blizzards in Great Plains harm cattle ranches
1887-97
Drought in Great Plains states devastates farms
1890s
Depression in the U.S.; cotton prices fall from 8.6 cents per pound in 1890 to 6.98 cents in 1899
1894-95
Double-freeze winters destroy Florida citrus crops
1900-1910
Cotton prices rebound rising from 9.1 cents in 1900 to 13.5 cents in 1910. But boll weevil infestation spreads east from
Texas to Louisiana and Mississippi.
1904
Stem rust epidemic destroys wheat in wheat-growing states
1910-1920
Cotton prices fall in first half of decade, reaching a low of 7.4 cents in 1914, but then rise from 11.2 cents in 1915 to 35.3
cents in 1919. But, boll weevil plague spreads across Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida
1920-1930
Overproduction of cotton leads to an agricultural depression, creating more poverty in the south. Boll weevil problem
persists through 1925. Cotton prices vary from year to year from a low of 15.9 cents in 1920 to a high of 28.7 cents in
1923 and end the decade at 16.8 cents. Blacks migrate away from areas of heaviest depression to cities in North and
South. Many white farm owners lose land and are forced into farm tenantry or migration.
1920-1930
Number of Tractors in use in nine Southern states increases from 25,203 to 89,016, reducing owners’ need for farm
laborers
1930-1940
Cotton prices fall drastically; beginning at 9.5 cents in 1930, falling to 5.7 cents in 1931, rising only as high as 12.4 cents,
and ending the decade at 9.1 cents. Use of tractors spreads east from Texas and Oklahoma, doubling in number from
89,016 to 171,431. Increased tractor use continues to reduce owners’ need for farm laborers.
1932-36
Dust-bowl conditions devastate farms in Great Plains states
1933-39
U.S. government intervenes in cotton markets by introducing subsidies to farm owners if they restrict acreage. Resulting
decrease in acreage lessens demand for labor, displacing some farmworkers. Acreage harvested falls from 42,444 in 1930
to 23,805 in 1939.
Russ
Economic Pull Factors Affecting Migration To Cities
1890-1910
Textile manufacturing, introduced into the South in 1880s expands,
drawing workers to Southern cities. By 1910, half of all U. S. textile
manufacturing is being done in the South.
1900-1910
Cities in North and South grow rapidly.
1914-18
Expansion of manufacturing during WWI attracts whites and Blacks to
cities in North and South.
1920s
Displacement due to introduction of machinery is negligible.
1930-1940
Number of Black farmers decreases by 23 percent; from 749,000 to
574,000 (a decrease of 175,000). Number of white farmers decreases by
50,000 (less than 4 percent). Reverse migration by whites from cities is
substantial, as some whites leave cities and take on subsistence
farming to weather the Great Depression. (The number of white farm
owners increased by 74,000. (12 percent)
1940s
War industries (steel, refineries, textiles) spur city development
Mary
Immigration and Emigration by Decade: 1901-90
(Numbers in thousands)
Period
Immigrants
to the U.S.
Emigrants
from the U.S.
Net
Immigration
Ratio:
Emigration/
Immigration
1931-40
528
649
-121
1.23
1921-30
4,107
1,685
2,422
0.41
1911-20
5,736
2,157
3,579
0.38
1901-10
8,795
3,008
5,787
0.34
Source: 1992 Statistical Yearbook, Table 1; Warren and Kraly, The Elusive Exodus: Emigration from the United States, Population
Reference Bureau, 1985. Emigration 1981-90, Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Mary
U.S. Immigration 1821-1940
10
8.8
9
8
in Millions
7
5.7
6
5.2
5
4.1
3.7
4
2.6
3
2.8
2.3
1.7
2
0.6
1
0.5
0.1
0
1821-30 1831-40 1841-50 1851-60 1861-70 1871-80 1881-90 1891-00 1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40
Mary
Foreign Born Americans (includes all places over 2,500)
Year
Urban Population
Percent of Foreign-Born
Population Living in Urban
Areas
1890
5,679,135
61.4%
1900
6,859,078
66.3%
1910
9,745,697
72.1%
1920
10,500,942
75.4%
1930
11,250,815
79.2%
1940
9,276,707
80.0%
Estimated Migration of Black Americans from the South
Year
Net Migration
from South
Migration Regional Destinations
Northeast
States
North
Central
States
Western
States
1880-1890
70,000
46,000
24,000
N.A.
1890-1900
168,000
105,000
63,000
N.A.
1900-1910
170,000
95,000
56,000
20,000
1910-1920
454,000
182,000
244,000
28,000
1920-1930
749,000
349,000
364,000
36,000
1930-1940
347,000
171,000
128,000
49,000
1940-1950
1,599,000
463,000
618,000
339,000
1950-1960
1,473,000
496,000
541,000
293,000
1960-1970
1,380,000
612,000
382,000
301,000
Mary
Mary
Mary
Mary
U.S. Urban Population 1790-2000
Percent of Total U.S. Population
100%
79.8% 80.3%
P e rc e n t
80%
73.6% 73.7%
69.9%
64.0%
60%
56.1% 56.5%
51.2%
45.6%
39.6%
40%
35.1%
28.2%
25.7%
19.8%
20%
15.4%
5.1%
0%
1790
6.1%
7.3%
7.2%
8.8%
10.8%
1810
1830
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Selected Historical DecennialCensus, Population and Housing Counts"; Marc J. Perry & Paul J. Mackun, "Population Change &
Distribution: 1990-2000," U.S. Census Bureau, April 2001.
Note: 1950-2000 reflect new MSA Urban Definition
1950
1970
1960
1990
1980
2000
Russ
Effect of External Economies and External Diseconomies
on Short Run Average Costs
Costs
SRAC3
SRAC1
SRAC2
Output
Russ
Why were cities such magnets for population?
• Cities are efficient places for production
• Agglomeration Economies
(e.g Auto Mile, Hollywood, Wall St.)
• Knowledge Spillovers
• Modern Equivalent: Clusters (Michael Porter)
Russ
Costs
Figure 3.3
A Typical Long Run Average Cost Curve
SRAC6
SRAC1
SRAC2
Scale Economies
Increasing Returns to
Scale
SRAC5
SRAC3
SRAC4
Constant Returns
to Scale
LRAC
Scale Disconomies
Decreasing Returns to
Scale
Output
Russ
Scale Economies
 Large Manufacturing Facilities
 Services that require a critical population mass
(e.g Department Stores, Museums)
 Major League Sports
 Public Transportation
Russ
Transportation Costs for a Resource-Oriented Firm
(also called a materials-oriented firm)
A
Resource Site
Market
Russ
Transportation Costs for a
Market-Oriented Firm
B
Resource Site
Market
The Weber Location Polygon for Two Resource
Sites and a Single Market
C
Steel Production
-Taconite from Duluth
-Coal from West Virginia
-Limestone from Michigan
Russ
Mary
Table 4.1
Year
Percent of Metropolitan Population Living
in Central Cities
Percent in Central Cities
1910
64.6
1920
66.0
1930
64.6
1940
62.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1950
58.6
1960
51.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------2000
37.4
Growth of Suburbs
-Forces of Centralization up to 1920 (Centripetal Forces)
-Forces of Decentralization after 1920 (Centrifugal Forces)
Mary
Central City Population - San Francisco
900,000
777,000
775,357
800,000
740,316
723,959
715,674
678,974
700,000
634,394 634,536
600,000
506,676
500,000
416,912
400,000 342,782
300,000
200,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Mary
Central City Population - Detroit
2,000,000
1,849,568
1,800,000
1,623,452
1,568,662
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,670,144
1,511,482
1,203,339
1,200,000
993,078
1,000,000
1,027,974
951,000
800,000
600,000
465,766
400,000 285,704
200,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Mary
Central City Population - Atlanta
600,000
487,455 496,973
500,000
425,022
394,017
416,000
400,000
302,288
331,314
270,366
300,000
200,616
200,000
100,000
154,839
89,872
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Mary
HOW DOES LAND GET
ITS VALUE?
The Game of Monopoly
Russ
The Bid Rent Curve and the effect of a change in product price or
a change in transportation costs
Panel B
Panel A
$500
Panel C
Rent
Rent
A
Russ
Rent
$600
C
$500
A
$500
A
$300
B
20
50
Miles from center
20
B
D
B
50
60
50
Miles from center
Miles from center
E
100
Russ
Bid Rent Curves for two different uses of land
and the resulting land distribution
Rent
Panel B
Panel A
$800
C
$500
Wheat
A
30
Tomatoes
B
D
30
40
50
X
vegetables
grains
Miles from center
50
Russ
The Residential Paradox
Rent
C
A
D
Low Incom e
High Incom e
B
Distance from
center
Family and Neighborhood Income Profile, 100 Largest Metro Areas,
1970-2000 (Percentage Shares)
Family Income Type
1970
1980
1990
2000
Very-Low Income
17.2
19.7
20.1
20.6
Low Income
18.5
17.5
17.7
17.8
Moderate Income
14.8
12.7
12.0
11.4
High-Moderate Income
13.2
12.0
10.9
10.1
High Income
12.6
14.0
13.1
12.1
Very-High Income
23.6
24.1
26.3
28.1
28.0
24.7
22.9
21.5
Very-Low Income
3.5
7.5
9.1
8.2
Low Income
20.8
21.2
21.3
24.0
Moderate Income
31.7
26.3
24.2
22.5
High-Moderate Income
26.6
23.6
20.2
18.4
High Income
12.6
14.5
15.4
15.1
Very-High Income
4.9
6.8
9.7
11.8
58.2
49.9
44.4
Middle Income
Neighborhood Type
Middle Income
40.9
Russ
Barry
Imports as % of GDP
Truman
Eisenhower
Kennedy
Johnson
Nixon Ford
Carter
Reagan
Bush
Clinton
Bush W.
16%
P e rc e n t
14%
12%
10%
8%
1929 Import/GDP Ratio
6%
4%
2%
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Russ
Location Analysis - High Transport Costs
700
600
Total Cost
500
400
A
Transportation Cost
300
200
Labor Cost
100
Site Cost
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
Miles from Central City
The Location Decision under Conditions of High Site Costs
and Rising Transportation Costs
Russ
600
500
Total Cost
400
B
300
Transportation Cost
200
Labor Cost
100
Site Cost
0
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
Miles from Central City
Russ
The Location Decision under Conditions of Zero Transportation Costs
and Steeply Falling Labor Costs
400
350
300
Total Cost
250
200
150
C
Site Cost
100
Labor Cost
50
Transportation Cost
Miles from Center City
97
93
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
1
0
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fa
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$40,000
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Barry
Median Household Income 1969
Metro Areas
$50,000
$46,993
$38,613
$30,000
$23,347
$20,000
n
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Barry
Percentage Change in Median Household Income
Metro Areas, 1969-1999
120%
110%
100%
80%
60%
40%
25%
20%
0%
-4%
-20%
Barry
Median Household Income 1999
Metro Areas
$65,000
$63,297
$55,000
$48,594
$45,000
$36,758
$35,000
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