Grant Agreement number: 265392
Project Acronym: USEmobility
Project title: Understanding Social behaviour for Eco-friendly multimodal mobility
Funding Scheme: Coordination and Support Action (Supporting)
Project starting date: 01.01.2011
Project duration: 26 months
Short summary of:
Deliverable D2.2
(National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice
of transport mode)
Due date of deliverable: 05.05.2011
Completion date of deliverable: 11.05.2011
Lead partner for deliverable: BSL Transportation
Dissemination level: Public
Name of the document: Short summary of the deliverable D2.2
Full report can be downloaded at: www.usemobility.eu
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
Management Summary
Key Findings
Statistics / Data
National trends in passenger transport show a general increase of mobility
and high growth rates in public transport, especially in recent years.
National policy
Political attempts to foster public transport exist in all research countries but
do not dominate transport policies
Implication for USEmobility
Results of
statistics and
policy
National statistics and policies give an aggregate overview of national trends
in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode at a
macroeconomic level.
Need for
USEmobility
An individual analysis of passengers behaviour questioning why people use
public transport modes more intensely will help all actors to exploit to the full
the potential of public transport in the future.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
2
EXCELDATEIPFAD.xls
Content
1. Overview and comparison of the countries
2. Quantitative analysis



Macroeconomic analysis of transport markets
Research period of ten years (2000 – 2010)
Based on statistics (e.g. transport volume, number of vehicles, economic
and demographic development, development of fuel prices and ticket prices
in public transport)
3. Qualitative analysis


Examination of transport policy
Based on political programs of national/regional governments, relevant
legislation, publications of governments, ministries, public transport
authorities and providers, civil society organisations (e.g. consumer
organisations, environmental organisations).
4. Results of the analyses
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
3
The research countries are structured very heterogeneous
concerning their dimension and economic performance
NL
Inhabitants: 16.6 Mio.
Inhabitants: 8.4 Mio.
Population density: 399 inh./ km²
Population density: 100 inh./ km²
GDP per capita: 34,600 €
GDP per capita: 32,800 €
Modal split public transport: 17.0 %
Modal split public transport: 24.9 %
B
Inhabitants: 10.8 Mio.
Inhabitants: 10.0 Mio.
Population density: 355 inh./ km²
Population density: 108 inh./ km²
GDP per capita: 31,400 €
GDP per capita: 9,300 €
Modal split public transport: 22.3 %
Modal split public transport: 33.8 %
GER
Inhabitants: 81.8 Mio.
Inhabitants: 4.4 Mio.
Population density: 229 inh./ km²
Population density: 79 inh./ km²
GDP per capita: 29,300 €
GDP per capita: 10,800 €
Modal split public transport: 15.9 %
Modal split public transport: 19.5 %
A
HU
HR
Sources: Inhabitants, population density and GDP per capita: Eurostat, 2010. Modal split public transport: Eurostat 2008. Hungarian
modal split public transport: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2008. Map created with Mappoint 2010 European Maps.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
4
Content
1. Overview and comparison of the countries
2. Quantitative analysis



Macroeconomic analysis of transport markets
Research period of ten years (2000 – 2010)
Based on statistics (e.g. transport volume, number of vehicles, economic
and demographic development, development of fuel prices and ticket prices
in public transport)
3. Qualitative analysis


Examination of transport policy
Based on political programs of national/regional governments, relevant
legislation, publications of governments, ministries, public transport
authorities and providers, civil society organisations (e.g. consumer
organisations, environmental organisations).
4. Results of the analyses
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
5
Trends identified in the research countries at a
glance
Socio-economic and demographic trends





Stagnating population figures
Ageing of the population
General urbanization
High economic growth rates in Eastern Europe
Price increases in individual transport higher than in public transport
Transport and mobility trends





Public transport is gaining on individual transport throughout Europe
Eastern Europe is gaining on Western Europe concerning motorization
Eastern Europe makes up for motorway network expansion
Supply in passenger transport by railway increases (train-kilometres)
Stagnation or reduction of rail infrastructure
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
6
Growth rates in public transport are mostly higher than in
individual transport (especially in recent years)
%
%
Belgium
%
Germany
20
20
Focus of
USEmobility
15
Focus of
USEmobility
15
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
-15
IT
PT
-15
IT
-20
-20
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
1990
Austria
%
1995
2000
2005
PT
Focus of
USEmobility
15
10
10
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
1990
1995
2000
2005
-15
-15
-20
2008
1990
2008
Focus of
USEmobility
10
5
PT
2005
Croatia
15
5
IT
2000
PT
20
5
-20
1995
%
Focus of
USEmobility
15
-15
IT
-20
1990
2008
20
20
-15
Hungary
%
Focus of
USEmobility
15
10
10
Netherlands
20
IT
PT
IT
PT
-20
1995
2000
2005
2008
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
Annual growth rates in public and individual transport 1990 – 2008.
Source: European Commission – Statististical Pocketbook 2010. Hungarian Data: Hungarian Central Statistical Office.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
7
Increasing demand for mobility in almost all
research countries
CHANGE OF INDICATORS IN % (2000 – 2008)
DEMAND
SUPPLY
TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE
[in pkm]
5.1
Belgium
45.1
2.5
1.5
Germany
8.0
-7.5
3.9
14.7
16.9
0.0
29.2
12.7
35.0
28.3
¹) Data for train kilometres in the
Netherlands from 2007.
14.0
3.4
4.6
-10.1
Croatia
3.6
1.2
15.3
9.7
9.9
13.0
Austria
INFRASTRUCTURE
[length in km]
9.7
7.2
5.8
5.7
4.2
9.9
Netherlands
Hungary
MEANS OF TRANSPORT OFFER
[car stock and train kilometres¹]
114.3
-1.4
37.9
15.4
153.8
0.0
Individual transport (only individual transport by car, without powered two-wheelers)
Public transport by rail (exception: Demand values present public transport performance in general)
In several countries the demand for public transport showed a greater increase
than the demand for individual transport.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
8
Increasing market shares in public transport in
some countries
100%
90%
17.2
16.1
22.3
15.9
16.2
17.0
24.4
24.9
39.9
80%
20.3
19.5
79.7
80.5
2000
2008
33.8
70%
60%
50%
40%
82.8
83.9
77.7
84.1
83.8
83.0
75.6
75.1
30%
60.1
66.2
2000
2008
20%
10%
0%
2000
2008
2000
Belgium
2008
Germany
public transport
individual transport
2000
2008
Netherlands
2000
2008
Austria
Hungary
Croatia
Comparison of Modal splits 2000 and 2008 [in % of total pkm]
Source: European Commission – Statistical Pocketbook 2010. Hungarian Data: Hungarian Central Statistical Office.
There seems to be a change from declining market shares in public transport in the past
towards increasing market shares at least in some countries.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
9
Content
1. Overview and comparison of the countries
2. Quantitative analysis



Macroeconomic analysis of transport markets
Research period of ten years (2000 – 2010)
Based on statistics (e.g. transport volume, number of vehicles, economic
and demographic development, development of fuel prices and ticket prices
in public transport)
3. Qualitative analysis


Examination of transport policy
Based on political programs of national/regional governments, relevant
legislation, publications of governments, ministries, public transport
authorities and providers, civil society organisations (e.g. consumer
organisations, environmental organisations).
4. Results of the analyses
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
10
Positive approaches towards increased
multimodality but also obstacles and problems
Positive approaches



Political objectives
Obstacles and
problems
Rising awareness
Transport sector is facing major challenges
Need for political action to make mobility more sustainable is generally
seen
Noticeable increase of attractiveness of public transport


Making public transport and multimodality more attractive for the users
Increasing market share of public transport and multimodality (modal
shift)


Fostering public transport is mostly not dominating transport policy
Measures and implementations are often avoided or delayed due to
financial problems
Still numerous measures fostering individual transport (road
construction, tax benefits for company cars, car-scrap bonus, etc.)



NGO’s claim for more a consistent policy fostering public transport
NGO’s contribute to a rising awareness of problems concerning public
transport and multimodality, both in politics and the population
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
11
Content
1. Overview and comparison of the countries
2. Quantitative analysis



Macroeconomic analysis of transport markets
Research period of ten years (2000 – 2010)
Statistics (e.g. transport volume, number of vehicles, economic and
demographic development, development of fuel prices and ticket prices in
public transport)
3. Qualitative analysis


Examination of transport policy
Political programs of national/regional governments, relevant legislation,
publications of governments, ministries, public transport authorities and
providers, civil society organisations (e.g. consumer organisations,
environmental organisations).
4. Results of the analyses
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
12
Conclusions

Increasing
demand for
mobility...

Challenging
competitive
situation...
…viewable in individual as well as in public
transport

Demand for public transport is growing faster than for
individual transport, especially in the last five years

There seems to be a change concerning market
shares of public transport
…of public transport towards individual transport


Objectives to
foster public
transport exist...
Potential still not
exploited to the
full…

And for political support
…in all research countries at all political levels




Competition within the passenger market
Implication
for
USEmobility
But still do not dominate transport policies
Are often not consistently implemented and delayed
Focus on urban areas
...for increased use of public transport

Report D2.2 will help to understand transport
behaviour in a general way

Analysis of changes in passenger’s individual
behaviour is the focus of USEmobility.
National trends in passenger transport regarding the choice of transport mode
13
EXCELDATEIPFAD.xls