Nicholas Burnett
April 29, 2013

 Primary Education: A Basic Human Right
 Out-of-School Children: A Persistent Global Challenge
 The Economic, Social, Political and Environmental
Benefits of Primary Education
 The Economic Costs of Out-of-School Children
1

“Everyone has the right to education.”
Article 26 of the 1948 Universal
Declaration of Human Rights
“Ensuring that by 2015 all children, particularly girls, children in difficult circumstances and those belonging to ethnic minorities, have access to, and complete, free and compulsory primary education of good quality.”
“Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling.”
Education For All Goal 2 Millennium Development Goal 2
2

• According to official estimates, over 61 million children of primary school age are out of school (UIS 2012).
• Discrepancies between latest household datasets and UIS/UNESCO data on out-ofschool children suggest that the global population of OOSC is much higher.
27%
26%
47%
Expected never to enroll
Dropped out
Expect to enroll late
Source: UIS 2012
3

• Progress in reducing OOSC has stagnated since the mid-2000s.
• OOSC are concentrated geographically (Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) and demographically
(females, children living with disabilities, and the poor).
• In some regions, OOSC is a persistent problem due to conflict or natural disaster.
South Africa
Mali
Yemen
Kenya
Niger
Burkina Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Philippines
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Nigeria
0 2 4 6 8 10
2010
1999
4

Breakdown of OOSC populations based on UIS analysis of household surveys, 2013
Number of
OOSC
(thousands)
School-aged
Children
(thousands)
% OOSC % Drop-outs % Likely to start late
Cote D'Ivoire*
(6-11, UIS 2009)
DRC
(6-11, EPDC 2010)
India**
(6-10, EPDC 2006)
India
(6-10, UIS 2008)
Mali
(7-12, UIS 2011)
Pakistan
(5-9, UIS 2010)
1,161
3,022
23,400
2,278
850
3,074
11,285
123,619
123,619
2,510
38%
26%
19%
2%
34%
8%
6%
3%
0.3%
1%
5,125 19,755 26% 2%
Yemen
(6-11, UIS 2010)
857 3,926 22% 4%
* The breakdown for Cote d’Ivoire is generated using regional figures for Sub-Saharan Africa, provided by UIS (2012).
**Two estimates are provided for India due to the large discrepancy between UIS and EPDC data.
9%
14%
7%
0.7%
1%
16%
10%
% Unlikely to Ever
Start
21%
6%
9%
0.9%
32%
8%
7%
% Non-completing
OOSC
The uneven progress in reducing OOSC makes this a critical time to reconsider the benefits of primary education and support
EAC’s mission.
29%
12%
12%
1.2%
33%
10%
11%
5

6

• Wage/Productivity gains associated with years of schooling.
• Economic returns to primary education are high, and critical to rising out of poverty.
Changes in Marginal Return to Education in Latin America in the 1990s.
Source: Behrman, Birdsall, and Szekely (2003)
Note: Linear return refers to yearly change in returns.
Returns to Investment in Education Level
Source: Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2011
• Primary education has additional value as a gateway to the income benefits associated with post-primary education.
7

• An instrument for social reproduction of social change. Good quality curricula can be instrumental for societal and personal values.
• Positive influence on education attainment of the next generation.
• Amartya Sen’s capabilities framework.
• Gross primary enrolment rates associated with lower rates of crime.
• Social Cohesion.
• Gender Equity, empowerment, self-esteem.
8

Comparison of Under-five Mortality Rates by
Mother’s Education Level (2000-2010)
• Maternal and Child Care.
• Reproductive behaviors.
• Nutrition.
• Mortality Rates.
• Communicable disease.
• Health literacy.
The top bar in each set compares children of mothers with no education to children of mothers with post-primary education.
The bottom bar compares children of mothers with no education to children of mothers with primary education. 9

• Development of democracy.
• Civic engagement.
• Government accountability.
• Voter participation.
• Additional benefits in conflict/post-conflict states.
• Peace-building.

• Emerging evidence that education is associated with resilience to natural disasters (Blankespoor
2010).
• Primary education can also play a key role in mitigating climate change, by encouraging environmentally sustainable lifestyles.
11

What are the economic costs of out-of-school children?
Microeconomic Approach
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
A
B
2000
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
Macroeconomic Approach
A
B
2 4 6 8
Average Years of Schooling (S)
How much higher would GDP be …
…in ten years, if all of today’s children currently expected not to complete primary school actually do complete basic education?
…today, if a country had achieved universal primary school completion for the entire working population?
10
12

Total Microeconomic Cost
= B - A (see graph)
=
Direct Cost as a % of GDP
+
Probability-weighted GDP loss from forgone secondary education
B
A
2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
2016 2018 2020 2022
=
=
[% non-completing OOSC] x
[Wage premium to primary education]
+
[% non-completing OOSC] x
[Wage premium to secondary education] x
[rate of continuation from primary to secondary school] x
[rate of secondary school completion]
13

% Non-completing
OOSC
Direct Cost as a % of GDP
Probability-weighted GDP loss from forgone secondary education
Direct GDP loss +
Probability-weighted GDP loss from forgone secondary education
Cote d'Ivoire
(6-11, UIS 2009)
DRC
(6-11, EPDC 2010)
India*
(6-10, EPDC 2006)
India*
(6-10, UIS 2008)
Mali
(7-12, UIS 2011)
Pakistan
(5-9, UIS 2010)
29%
12%
12%
1.2%
33%
10%
4.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
2.9%
0.8%
2.54%
0.84%
0.98%
0.1%
2.61%
0.5%
6.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.1%
5.5%
1.3%
Yemen**
(6-11, UIS 2010)
11% 1.1%
Sources for Wage Premia: Colclough (2009), Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2004)
1.70% 2.8%
*Two estimates are provided for India due to the large discrepancy between UIS and EPDC data.
**Continuation to secondary school data was unavailable for Yemen. Mali’s rate of continuation was used, since Yemen and Mali have similar gross enrollment rates in secondary school.

 Relationship between income and schooling estimated by
Barro and Lee (2010).
 If the average citizen completes primary education, then S = 6.
 The red segment above shows the estimated macroeconomic cost of OOSC for a country with
S = 4.
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 2 4 6
Average Years of Schooling (S)
8 10
15

Macroeconomic estimates of the cost of large OOSC populations, 2010.
Country
Mean Years of Schooling (2010)
Estimated Income loss per capita
Cote D'Ivoire
D.R. of
Congo
India
Mali
Pakistan
Yemen
4.50
3.47
5.10
2.03
5.59
3.69
22.2%
43.3%
12.3%
83.8%
5.3%
38.4%
16


Research confirms that primary education has a range of strong positive impacts, increasing income potential, empowering citizens, reducing crime rates, improving public health, and breaking the cycle of poverty.
 Good quality education fosters life-long learning and ensures progress to higher education.
 The economic cost of today ’s out-of-school children is as much as 7% of GDP in some developing countries.

Out-of-school children represent an even greater source of economic loss when uneducated adults (out-of-school children of past generations) are accounted for.
Out-of-school children represent an unconscionable underinvestment that prevents nations from reaching their full economic and social potential.