Regional disparities in Bulgaria
– evaluation and policy
implications
Yana Kirilova, Ph.D.
Institute of Economic Studies,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
General information

Bulgaria – member of the EU since 2007.

EU structural and cohesion funds utilized
through operational programs.

Operational Program “Regional
Development”

Next programming period 2014-2020 – need
for new programming of regional
development.
Preparation of OPRD 2014-2020

Project “Socio-economic analyses for
preparation of OPRD 2014-2020”

Institute of Economic Studies, Bulgarian
Academy of Sciences

Sofia Consulting Group, Bulgaria

Four-year project (2011-2014)
Analyses focused on:

Regional disparities in terms of:







Demographic situation;
Labor market;
Incomes;
Economic development;
Transport infrastructure;
Tourism (services provided and infrastructure);
Social services and infrastructure (education,
health, culture, social services).
Summary score of socio- economic
development

Integral indicator;

To choose minimum indicators showing all
major characteristics of the studied territorial
units.

To develop a methodology that shows the
combined influence of these indicators
Indicators

Coefficient of natural growth of the population

Coefficient of migration of the population

Employment coefficient

GDP per capita

Capital investments per capita

Number of nights spent by tourists per 1000
population
Indicators

Cultivated arable land per capita

Incomes per member of a household

Unemployment rate

Length of railways and roads per 1000
sq.km.

Share of university students in population

Medical doctors per 100 000 population
Steps for calculating the summary scores


Making the values of the individual indicators
commensurate (BGN, %, dka,km, numbers);
For each indicator:



The territorial unit with the highest value becomes
a benchmark = 100%
All the rest – get a % compared to the benchmark
The summary score for a territorial unit =
average of the sum of its % for the individual
indicators
Summary scores of socio-economic
development of Bulgarian regions
2007
2008
2009
2010
South West Region
66.1%
67.6%
65.9%
68.1%
North East Region
59.5%
59.5%
60.1%
57.6%
BULGARIA
56.5%
56.8%
57.4%
56.4%
South East Region
55.9%
55.6%
56.6%
54.3%
South Central Region
51.5%
51.4%
54.0%
49.9%
North Central Region
49.1%
49.7%
50.1%
48.9%
North West Region
45.1%
44.2%
45.8%
45.6%
9
Summary scores of socio-economic
development of Bulgarian regions
South West Region
North East Region
BULGARIA
South East Region
South Central Region
North Central Region
North West Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
10
11
Disparities among the districts within the regions
Group 1
North West Region
North Central Region
0
Russe
North East Region
Varna
South East Region
Bourgas,
Stara Zagora
South Central Region
South West Region
Plovdiv
Sofia-city
Group 2
Pleven,
Vratsa,
Lovech
Gabrovo,
Veliko
Tarnovo
Dobrich
Kardjali
Sofia-district,
Blagoevgrad,
Pernik
Group 3
V%
Vidin,
Montana
8.5
Silistra,
Razgrad
16.7
Targoviste,
Shumen
21.0
Sliven,
Yambol
Haskovo,
Pazardjik,
Smolyan
Kyustendil
19.5
12.9
25.5
12
13
Conclusions for the regional policy



Two models of regional development are monitored:
Model 1: Center-periphery
 At national level – SWR and the rest
 At regional level – SWR, SCR, NER and the rest
 At district level (central municipality and
periphery)
Model 2: Bipolar model
 At national level – Sofia and Varna
 At regional level – SER (Burgas and Stara
Zagora)
 At district level (2 strong municipalities and the
rest)
Conclusions for the regional policy

The disparities among regions and districts –
arguments for implementing two types of
regional policy:

Reducing disparities – directing resources
towards underdeveloped districts

Development of growth centers - directing
resources towards highly developed districts
What did the policy makers actually
choose?

OPRD 2014-2020

To support 67 cities and towns (centers of
regions and municipalities)

Concentrating population

Concentrating technical and social
infrastructure