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Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models Arbitrage Opportunity and Profit Diversification and APT APT and CAPM Comparison Multifactor Models Arbitrage Opportunity and Profit Arbitrage The opportunity of making riskless profit by exploiting relative mispricing of securities E.g., IBM: $96 on NYSE and $96.15 on NASDAQ creates an arbitrage opportunity Zero-Investment Portfolio A portfolio of zero value by long and short the same amount of securities E.g., Buy $10,000 of stock A and short $10,000 of stock B creates a zero-investment portfolio Investments 12 2 Arbitrage Opportunity and Profit Example: Two stocks A, B and a bond C. If it rains tomorrow, A pays $1.3 and B pays $0.2 if it does not rain, A pays $0.3 and B pays $1.5 C pays $2 regardless. Price today: PA = PB = $1, PC = $2 Find the arbitrage opportunity and profit from it Solution Short 1 share of A and B each to get $2 Use the proceeds to buy bond C Total initial investment = $0 P/L = $0.5 if it rains, and P/L = $0.2 if it does not. Investments 12 3 Diversification and APT Well-diversified Portfolio A portfolio sufficiently diversified such that nonsystematic risk is negligible Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) A theory of risk-return relationships derived from no-arbitrage conditions in large capital market Individual stock: Ri i i RF ei Well-diversified portfolio: RF is the factor return Rp p p RF No-arbitrage means: αP = 0 Investments 12 4 Diversification and APT How does it work? Factor portfolio: Rp RF F 0, and F 1 If portfolio C has αP = 2%, βP = 0.5 Show me the money Short $100 of the factor portfolio Long $200 of portfolio C Net payoff 200 Rp 100 RF 200 ( p p RF ) 100 RF 4 Investments 12 Risk-free four bucks? I’ll take it anytime! 5 APT and CAPM Comparison APT applies to well-diversified portfolios and not necessarily to individual stocks It is possible for some individual stocks not to lie on the SML APT is more general in that its factor does not have to be the market portfolio Both models can be extended to multifactor setup Investments 12 6 Multifactor Models Possible to consider more than one benchmark factor! Consider a two-factor model: Ri i i1RM1 i 2 RM 2 ei Ri: excess return = ri – rf RMi: factor portfolios excess return = rMi – rf ij : return sensitivity to systematic factors - also called as “factor loadings” “factor betas” Investments 12 7 Multifactor Models Where do the factors come from? Variables that reflect macroeconomic picture E.g. industrial production, inflation, bond spreads Variables that serve as proxies for exposure to systematic risk Investments 12 E.g. Fama-French (1993) model approach 8 Fama-French (1993) Model Three-factor model: Ri i iM RM iSMB SMB iHML HML ei Ri: stock excess return = ri – rf RM: market excess return = rM – rf SMB: “Small Minus Big” factor return SMB = 1/3 (Small Value + Small Neutral + Small Growth) - 1/3 (Big Value + Big Neutral + Big Growth) HML: “High Minus Low” factor return HML =1/2 (Small Value + Big Value) - 1/2 (Small Growth + Big Growth) i : return sensitivity to factors Investments 12 9 Are All Risk Factors Covered Now? Investments 12 10 Wrap-up What is arbitrage and how to do it? What are the major differences between APT and CAPM? Multifactor models – the way to go! Investments 12 11