Negotiation Martin Beer, School of Computing & Management Sciences, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom m.beer@shu.ac.uk Introduction • Principles of Negotiation – Game Theoretic Approaches • • • • • Evaluation Criteria Voting Auctions General Equilibrium Markets Contract Nets – Heuristic-based Negotiation – Argumentation-based Negotiation Principles of Negotiation • Negotiation = Interaction amongst Agents based on communication for the purpose of coming to an agreement • Distributed conflict resolution • Decision Making • Proposal accepted, refined, criticized or refuted Principles of Negotiation Coordination Collectively Motivated Agents Common Goals Coordination to achieve Common goal Distributed Search through a space of possible solutions Self-interested Agents Own Goals Coordination for Coherent Behaviour Negotiation Includes • A communication language • A negotiation Protocol • A decision Process by which an agent decides upon its – Position – Concessions – Criteria for agreement etc. Negotiation Strategies • Negotiation can take a number of different forms – Single or multi-party negotiation – May include a single shot message by each party or a conversation with several messages going back and forth Negotiation Techniques • Game Theoretic Negotiation – Evaluation Criteria – Voting Auctions – General Equilibrium Market Mechanisms – Contract Nets • Heuristic-based Negotiation • Argument-based negotiation Game Theoretic Negotiation • Evaluation Criteria – Criteria to evaluate negotiation protocols among selfinterested agents – Agents are supposed to behave rationally – Rational behavior = an agent prefers a greater utility (payoff) than a smaller one – Payoff maximization • Individual payoffs • Group payoffs • Social welfare – Social Welfare • The sum of agents’ utilities (payoffs) in a given solution • Measures the global good of the agents • Problem: How do we compare utilities? Utility • Utility is the means by which we optimise the results of the negotiation • Utility often equates to price, this may not always be the case. It may be – Speed of response – “closeness” – Some combination of functions etc. • Any function that can be readily computed can be used. Pareto Efficiency • A solution x – i.e. a payoff vector p(x1, … xn) is Pareto efficient (i.e. Pareto optimal) if there is no other solution x’ such that at least one agent is better off in x’ than in x and no agent is worse off in x’ than in x. • Measures global good – Does not require utility comparison • Social Welfare Pereto Efficiency Individual Rationality (IR) • IR of an agent participation = The agent’s payoff in the negotiated solution is no less than the payoff that the agent would get by not participating in the negotiation • A mechanism is IR if the participation is IR for all agents Stability • A protocol is stable if once the agents arrived at a solution they do not deviate from it Dominant Strategy – The agent is best off using a specific strategy no matter what strategies the other agents use Nash Equilibrium – – The strategy profile S*A = < S*1 …. S*n > For each I, S*I is the agent’s best strategy given that the other agents use strategies < S*1 …. S*i-1 ,S*i+1 …. S*n >P – Problems • • • No Nash Equilibrium Multiple Nash Equilibria Guarantees stability only in the beginning of the game Prisoners Dilemma • Two prisoners are collectively charged with a crime and held in separate cells, with no way of meeting or communicating. • They are told that: – If one confesses and the other does not, the confessor will be freed, and the other will be jailed for three years – If both confess, then each will be jailed for two years • Both prisoners know that if neither confesses, then they will each be jailed for one year. Prisoner’s Dilemma – Possible Outcomes Note – 4 is immediate release Player j Cooperate Defect Player i Cooperate 4,4 1,4 Defect 3,3 4,1 Prisoner’s Dilemma – Strategic Considerations • The individual rational action is to defect • This guarantees a payoff of at least 2 whereas cooperating guarantees a payoff of at most 1 • Logic Says that this is not the best alternative – if both cooperate the payoff is 3 • This is the fundamental problem with multi-agent systems • It appears to imply that cooperation will not occur with self-interested agents • Can we get over this? Yes – by repeating the problem many times Computational Efficiency • To achieve perfect rationality – The number of options to consider is too big – Sometimes no algorithm finds the optimal solution • Bounded Rationality – Limits the time/computation for options consideration – Prunes the search space – Imposes restrictions on the types of spaces Voting • Truthful Voters – Rank feasible social outcomes based on agents’ individual ranking of those outcomes – A – set of n agents – O – set of m feasible outcomes – Each agent has a preference relation <I : O x O, asymmetric and transitive • Social Choice Rule – Input: the agent preference relations (<1, …. <n) – Output: elements of O sorted according to the input – gives the social preferences relation <* Properties of the Social Choice Rule • A social preference ordering <* should exist for all possible inputs (individual preferences) • <* should be defined for every pair (o,o’) O • <* should be asymmetric & transitive over O • The outcomes should be Pareto efficient If "I A, o<I o’ then o <* o’ • The scheme is independent of irrelevant alternatives If "I A, < and <‘ satisfy o <I o’ and o <’I o’ then the social ranking of o and o’ is the same in these two situations • No agent should be a dictator in the sense that o <I o’ implies o<* o’ for all preferences of the other agents Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem • No Social choice rule satisfies all of the six conditions listed on the last slide • Alternatives – Binary Protocol • • • • Alternatives are voted pair-wise The chosen alternative depends on the agenda That is the order of the pairings This is the method used in parliamentary debates – Borda Protocol • Assigns an alternative |O| points for the highest preference, |O| -1 points for the second and so on ….. • The counts are summed across the voters and the alternative with the highest count becomes the social choice • Winner turns loser and loser turns winner if the lowest ranked alternative is removed Auctions - Theory • The auctioneer wants to sell an item at the highest possible payment and the bidders want to acquire the item at the lowest possible price • A centralised protocol includes – One auctioneer – Several bidders • The auctioneer introduces the item for sale, which can be a combination of other items, or have multiple attributes • Bidders make offers. This may be repeated for several times, depending on the auction type • The auctioneer determines the winner • Auction Characteristics – – – – Simple protocols Centralised Allows collusion “behind the scenes” May favour auctioneer Auction Settings • Private Value Auctions – The value to a bidder agent depends on its private preferences – Assumed to be known exactly • Common Value Auctions – The good’s value depends entirely on other agents’ valuation • Correlated Value Auctions – The good’s value depends on internal and external valuations English (First-price Open Cry) Auction – Each bidder announces openly its bid – When no bidder is willing to raise anyone, the auction ends – The highest bidder wins the item at the price of the bid • Strategy – In private value auctions the dominant strategy is to always bid a small amount more than the current highest bid and stop when the private value is reached – In correlated value auctions the bidder increases the price at a constant rate or at a rate it thinks appropriate First-Price Sealed-Bid Auction • Each bidder submits one bid without knowing the other’s bids • The highest Bidder wins the item and pays the amount of their bid • Strategy – No dominant strategy – Bid less than its true valuation but it is dependant on the other agents bids which are not known Dutch (descending) Auction • The auctioneer continuously lowers the price until one of the bidders takes the item at the current price • Strategy – Strategically equivalent to the first-price sealed-bid auction – Efficient for real time Vickery (Second-Price Sealed Bid) Auctions • Each bidder submits one bid without knowing the others’ bids • The highest bidder wins but pays the price of the second bid • Strategy – The bidder dominant strategy is to bid its true valuation All-Pay Auctions • Each participating bidder has to pay the amount of their bid (or some other amount) to the auctioneer Problems with Auction Protocols • They are not collusion proof • Lying Auctioneer – Problem with Vickery Auction – Problem with English Auction – use skills that bid in the auction to increase bidders’ valuation of the item – The auctioneer bids the highest second price to obtain its reservation price – may lead to the auctioneer keeping the item – Common value auctions suffer from the winner’s curse: agents should bid less than their valuation prices (as winning the auction means its valuation is too high) – Interrelated auctions – the bidder may lie about the value of an item to get a combination of items at its valuation price General Equilibrium Markets • General Equilibrium Theory =A macroeconomic theory • A set of goods available at different prices • Two types of agents – Consumers & Producers • The producer’s profits are profits are divided among the consumers according to predetermined proportions that need not be equal • The producers’ profits are divided among consumers according the shares they ‘own’ • Prices may change and the agents may change their consumption and production plans but – Actual production and consumption only occur when the market has reached a general equilibrium Contract Nets • General Equilibrium Market Mechanisms use – Global prices – A centralised mediator • Drawbacks – – – – Not all prices are global Bottleneck of the mediator Mediator – point of failure Agents have no direct control over the agents to which they send information • Need a more distributed solution • Task allocation via negotiation – Contract Net – A kind of bridge between game theoretic negotiation and heuristic-based one – Formal model for making bids and awarding decisions Contract Net • Protocol – The agents suggest contracts to each other and make their accepting/rejecting decisions based on marginal cost calculations – The agent can take the roles of both Contractor and Contractee – It can also contract out tasks that it received earlier via another contract – The agents do not know the tasks and cost functions of other agents – Task allocation improves with each step - hill climbing in the space of task allocations where the high-metric of the hill is social welfare – It is an anytime algorithm • Contracting can be terminated anytime • The worth of each agent’s solution increases monotonically Social Function increases monotonically Contract Net • Problem – Task allocation stuck in a local equilibrium = no contract net is individually rational and the task allocation is not globally optimal • Possible solution – Different contract types • • • • O – one task C – cluster contracts S – swap contracts M – multi-agent contracts – For each of the four contract types there exists task allocations \for which there is an IR contract under one type but no IR contracts under the other three types – Under all four contract types there are initial task allocations for which no IR sequence of contracts will lead to the optimal solution (social welfare) Contract Net • Main differences as compared to game theoretic negotiation – An agent may reject an IR contract – An agent may accept a non-IR contract – The order of accepting IR contracts may lead to different pay offs – Each contract is made by evaluating just a single contract instead of doing look ahead in the future • Untruthful Agents – An agent may lie about its marginal costs – An agent may lie about what tasks it ahs • Hide tasks • Phantom tasks • Decoy tasks – Sometimes lying may be beneficial Heuristic-based Negotiation • Produce good rather than optimal solution • Heuristic-based negotiation – Computational approximations of game theoretic techniques – Informal negotiation models • No central mediator • Utterances are private between negotiating agents • The protocol does not prescribe an optimal course of action • Central concern: the agent’s decision making heuristically during the course of negotiation Argumentation-based Negotiation • Arguments used to persuade the party to accept a negotiation proposal • Different types of agents • Each Argument type defines preconditions for its usage. If the preconditions are met, then the agent may use the argument • The agent needs a strategy to decide which argument to use • Most of the times assumes the BDI model Argumentation-based Negotiation • Strategies – Appeal to past promise – Promise a future reward – Appeal to self interest – Threat