ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW
Period ending 02 October 2011
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Grocery Performance Summary
• Despite prices increasing (2.3%), the overall market remains subdued with value
sales falling by 0.2% compared with this time last year as shoppers are trading
down to cheaper products, buying products on promotion.
• Private Label has remained consistent at around 34.5% of the grocery market
since the start of the year .
• The choice of grocery products has more than doubled since 2001 to over 27,500
products.
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Total Grocery market value
The market has lost 0.2% in the latest 12 weeks, compared to 1.2%
growth in sales for the same period last year
-4.5%
+0.7%
+1.2%
52 weeks
-0.2%
12 weeks
3
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING (PACKS)?
Pack sales are in decline over the full year and in the latest 12 weeks also
5,131,122
5,155,059
5,140,816
1,148,400
52 w/e 04
Oct 09
+0.5%
-0.3%
52 w/e 03
Oct 10
52 w/e 02
Oct 11
52 we packs
12 w/e 04
Oct 09
1,172,688
1,169,782
+2.1%
-0.2%
12 w/e 31
Oct 10
12 w/e 02
Oct 11
12 we packs
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E
4 we €000’s
673,807
671,526
660,398
+2.0
-0.3%
4 w/e 04 Oct 09
4 w/e 03 Oct 10
4 w/e 02 Oct 11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Market value, inflation and consumer sentiment
ESRI Index of consumer sentiment, 3 mth MAV
Grocery Value % Change and Inflation
Inflation in grocery is running at +2.3% but has no positive effect on value as
consumer sentiment dips further
6
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Market value, inflation and household spend
Grocery Value % Change, HH Spend % Change and Inflation
Each household is spending 0.25% less than they did last year
7
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
% Markets in Inflation vs Deflation
Inflation has slowed slightly vs the same time last year, but the majority of
markets still see inflation
8
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Consumer coping strategies
What
Ireland
How are we adjusting
spendconsumers
when faced with do:
inflation?
Promotional purchasing and trading down product tiers drives consumer spend
down but volume continues to increase following a period of adjustment
12 weekly rolling periods
Kantar Worldpanel Ireland, 12 w/e 26 Dec 2010
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Shopper behaviour drivers
The number of shopping trips per household has been increasing since the start
of 2011 but spend continues to be eroded with average basket now worth 2.3%
less than last year
12 week ending periods
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Shopper missions
The importance of full trolley trips has not changed. Instead, shoppers have
switched some of their Destination trips to Baskets as Multiples continue to
overperform vs. the convenience channel
Total Grocery
% Grocery Spend
% Grocery Trips
-€4.5 million
+2 million
58%
NC
22%
NC
€ per trip
€21.88 -2.3%
€58.27 -2.4%
38% +0.4pt
62% +1.4pt
€13.26 -3.4%
4%
16% -1.4pt
€5.58
-0.4pt
-3%
11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
CHANGE IN VALUE SALES – TOTAL GROCERY SECTORS
Food sectors growth is flat this period
% Value Change
0.7-0.2-0.3
4.0 3.5 3.7
-0.3
-0.7
-5.2
-8.4
TOTAL
GROCERY
TOTAL
ALCOHOL
-6.6
1.1 0.5-0.3
0.8
2.5 0.9
-0.3
0.3 0.2-0.3
1.1 0.7
-0.4
-4
-11.8
-13.8
TOTAL
TOTAL
TOTAL
TOTAL FOOD AMBIENT
HEALTHCARE HOUSEHOLD TOILETRIES
GROCERIES
(inc Petcare)
52 w/e Change
12 w/e Change
TOTAL
FRESH &
CHILLED
FROZEN
4 w/e Change
12
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
TOTAL FOOD YEARLY AND QUARTERLY SALES
7,367,872
7,073,439
-4.0%
52 w/e 04 Oct
09
52 w/e 03 Oct
10
52 we €000’s
7,149,649
1.1%
52 w/e 02 Oct
11
1,589,542
12 w/e 04 Oct
09
1,614,514
1,621,874
+1.6%
0.5%
12 w/e 03 Oct
10
12 w/e 02 Oct
11
12 we €000’s
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS?
% VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED
Total food
4
3
2.9
3
2.2
2.0
2
2
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1
1.0
1
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.5
0
-1
12 w/e 03 12 w/e 31 12 w/e 28 12 w/e 26 12 w/e 23 12 w/e 20 12 w/e 20 12 w/e 17 12 w/e 15 12 w/e 12 12 w/e 10 12 w/e 07 12 w/e 04 12 w/e 02
Oct 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand
Shoppers trading to standard from good and down from Super
premium also
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
7.4
10.0
5.8
5.0
11.2
1.8
14.7
-5.0
Super Premium
-3.8
-10.0
Premium
35.4
-15.0
-20.0
Good
-25.0
-30.0
Standard
-35.0
-40.0
35.6
-35.4
Budget (Median
Standard
-75%)
(Median -25%)
Good (Median
price)
Premium
(Median +25%)
Budget
Super Prem
(Median +75%)
3.1
% Packs
12 w/e 02 Oct 2011
15
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Private label still remains an important
part of a consumers grocery shop
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
w/
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12
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1N
12
o
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w/
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12
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12
34.7
34.5
34.6
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.6
33.8
33.2
32.8
33.1
32.9
32.8
32.6
32.6
32.4
32.5
32.3
32.7
33.2
32.9
32.6
31.9
32.3
32.7
33
12w PL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL GROCERY MARKET
PL value share is holding above 34% of market value, and has not
dropped back after the new year pickup
Private Label Value Share of Grocery
% Value share
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Grocery Packs Growth by PL Tier
Budget & Standard Private label products see an increase in Pack
sales
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Share of sales
Change in sales
Standard PL
6
5.3
30.6
4.7
5
Value PL
4
1.5
2.4
3
11.1
Premium
2
1
No Brand
Name
0
-1
-0.2
54.4
Branded
-2
-2.2
-3
-3.3
-4
All
purchases
Branded
Premium
Value PL
Standard
PL
12 w/e 02 Oct 11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Consumers are taking
advantage of promotions
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
12 w/e 02 Oct 11
12 w/e 04 Sep 11
12 w/e 07 Aug 11
12 w/e 10 Jul 11
12 w/e 12 Jun 11
12 w/e 15 May 11
12 w/e 17 Apr 11
12 w/e 20 Mar 11
12 w/e 20 Feb 11
12 w/e 23 Jan 11
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
14.1 14.0 14.0 14.1
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
14.5
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
14.9 15.1 15.1 15.0
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
22
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
15.3
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
16.0 15.9 15.7
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
15.5
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
15.2
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
16
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR
A more consistent level of promotion since the new year
% Packs Sold on Deal in Total
Grocery,
20
18
14.7
14.4 14.5
14.4 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.3
14.4
14.1 14.3
14
12
10
20
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
52w % PACKS SOLD ON DEAL – PROMO TYPE
Pickup in MultiBuy packs this year, but less Money off and Extra
Free promotions
Extra Free
Banded/Special Pack
Money Off
Multi-Buy
Other Offer
0.9
2.4
0.9
0.8
3.0
3.5
8.4
7.8
7.2
0.8
3.6
52 w/e 04 Oct 09
0.6
0.4
2.7
2.4
52 w/e 03 Oct 10
52 w/e 02 Oct 11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Shoppers also
have more choice
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
We now have double the choice we had in 2001
75
27,558
Bought
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
Available
20
03
20
02
13,610
20
01
No. of grocery products
72
Latest 12 weeks to 7th August 2011
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
75
We actually select
Items available to us
27,558
Latest 12 weeks to 7th August 2011
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Round pricing helps to catch the consumers eye
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
Round Euro Price Points – helping shoppers budget
As shoppers look for value, Round Pricing becomes more
popular
2011 19% of Branded Sales
2010
2009
15% of Branded Sales
8% of Branded Sales
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
PRICE MATTERS
‘ROUND €’ prices have more than doubled since 09
Price Points – helping
shoppers manage
25
20
15
10
5
0
_ 12
w/e
04
Oct
09
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
01 29 27 24 21 21 18 16 13 11 08 05 03 31 28 26 23 20 20 17 15 12 10 07 04 02
Nov Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
UK Overview
ROI data to 02ND OCT 2011
MARKET TRENDS
SUMMARY
MARKET TRENDS
–
–
Gap between inflation and market growth narrows to 0.5%
–
Inflation steps up to 5.7%
–
Market growth now up to 5.2%, from 4.6% last period
Versus last year, trading down to cheaper products becomes more important.
PRICE & PROMOTIONS
–
Full price sales continue to drive Market growth,
–
Nearly all retailers increase promotional discounts year on year.
GROWTH AND INFLATION
Customers continue to trade down…
6%
5.7%
5%
5.2%
% change
4%
3%
2%
1%
Grocery (RST) 12we 2 Oct 2011 (KWP P11)
Market Growth
02 Oct 11
04 Sep 11
07 Aug 11
10 Jul 11
12 Jun 11
15 May 11
17 Apr 11
20 Mar 11
20 Feb 11
23 Jan 11
26 Dec 10
28 Nov 10
31 Oct 10
03 Oct 10
0%
Inflation
30
© Kantar Worldpanel
TRADING-UP AND TRADING-DOWN STRATEGIES
…mainly through Promotions & Product Choice
contribution to change %pts
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.6
5.7
4.6
Inflation
HH Volume
Change
Store Choice
Promotion
Choice
Product Choice
HH Spend
Change
Grocery (RST) 12we 2 Oct 2011 (KWP P11)
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand
Shoppers trading down to Budget and Standard
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
4.0
8.453
3.0
3.0
11.91
2.0
2.0
1.0
33.19
0.4
0.0
Super
Premium
Premium
Good
-1.0
20.77
-1.1
-2.0
-1.8
Standard
-1.7
-3.0
25.68
All
Purchases
Budget
Standard
Good
Premium
Budget
Super
Premium
Share
12 W/e 02 Oct 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Packs Growth by PL Tier
In terms of Private label, all tiers perform well as shoppers trade
down from branded goods
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
1.5
6.51
1.1
Budget PL
1
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.4
41.1
Standard PL
1.85
0
Premium PL
43.4
-0.5
Branded
-0.9
-1
All
Purchases
Branded
Premium PL Standard PL Budget PL
Share
12 W/e 02 Oct 11
© Kantar Worldpanel