Nuclear Power – fact and fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Many genuine concerns
February 2012
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http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/waste/doc/2005_06_nuclear_waste_en.pdf
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_297_en.pdf
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_297_en.pdf
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism
Fuel will run out
They’re too big
They’re too expensive
Use renewables instead
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Fact or Fiction?
“We are not going nuclear because we are going down
the renewables route.“
Minister for Energy (Eamon Ryan), Late Debate, RTE radio
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Joint Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security
CER submission
“… gas and wind generation must be supplemented
by other sources, whether coal with carbon capture
and storage, nuclear or non-intermittent
renewables.”
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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EirGrid
“concerns that the portfolio … dominated by wind …
supported by gas ... exposes Ireland to risks both in
terms of supply and price volatility.”
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Airtricity
“a sustainable electricity system is the sum of a
portfolio of interdependent technological solutions
including renewables”
“Should competitive, flexible, smaller scale reactors be
proven, then this is an option that Ireland should
consider in the longer term.”
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Wind output at system peaks
Wind capacity and output during peak demand
6000
5000
4000
MW
3000
Peak
demand
2000
1000
0
2005
February 2012
2006
2007
2008
2009
Winter
better environment with nuclear energy
2010
2011
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Capacity Credit of Wind
http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Generation%20Adequacy%20Report%202010-2016.pdf
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Realistic contribution of some
renewables - global
Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:
Wind x 50
Hydro x 2
Biomass x 3
Geothermal x 70
Marine x 500
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Realistic contribution of some
renewables - global
Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:
Wind x 50 (~ 3 TW)
Hydro x 2 (~ 1 TW)
Biomass x 3 (~ 1 TW)
Geothermal x 70 (~ 100 GW)
Marine x 500 (~ 100 GW)
total < 6 TW
(need 15 TW)
Remainder from solar, fission, fusion and new technology
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism
Fuel will run out
They’re too big
They’re too expensive
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Fact or Fiction?
“Any reasonable cost-benefit analysis concludes that
nuclear energy has no future“
Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth
OR
“..our electricity is more expensive … because they
have nuclear energy, which is cheaper.”
Mary Coughlan, Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment
February 2012
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SEI shows nuclear cheaper than wind
http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Low_Carbon_Opportunity_Study/Technical_Appendix.pdf
February 2012
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DIT/BERR: nuclear cheapest new option
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/tna/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files
/file31938.pdf
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism
Fuel will run out
They’re too big
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Fact or Fiction?
“Too big for the Irish Grid”
“Plant size is 1600 MW”
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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New nuclear plants by 2015-20
•
•
•
•
•
Toshiba 4S
Hyperion
PBMR
Babcock & Wilcox SMR
Westinghouse SMR
10 MW
25 MW
165 MW
185 MW
225 MW
10 new plants <= 700 MW will begin operation by 2012
Opportunity, not a threat!
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism
Fuel will run out
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Not enough fuel?
Known Recoverable
Resources of Uranium 2009
@ US$130 /kgU
> 70 years at 70,000 tU p.a.
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Target for terrorists?
Segregated + protected + shielded
Jet crash test
Small target
Underground
Auto SCRAM
Easier targets (chemical, biological)
No history
https://share.sandia.gov/news/resources/video-gallery/index.html#rocketsled
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons
Risk of terrorism ……….............. Fiction
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Use in weapon?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fuel: Low Enriched Uranium (< 5%)
Weapon: Highly Enriched Uranium (>20%)
State-run enrichment facilities
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
IFNEC (GNEP)?
Cannot operate as a nuclear weapon
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions
Use in nuclear weapons ………… Fiction
Risk of terrorism ……….............. Fiction
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Fact or fiction?
“nuclear energy is just as polluting in terms of carbon
emissions as gas-fired power.”
Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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IPCC are unequivocal…
Figure 4.19 in Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Future Irish emissions
http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Low%20Carbon%20Generation%20Options%20for%20the%20All%20Island%20Market%20%282%29.pdf (POYRY)
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste
Doesn’t help emissions …………. Fiction
Use in nuclear weapons ………… Fiction
Risk of terrorism ……….............. Fiction
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
“Waste remains dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years”
– fact or fiction?
"What is remarkable about nuclear waste is that
it fades away. In 600 years the high-level
waste from a nuclear power station is no
more radioactive or dangerous than the
uranium ore from which it originated.”
James Lovelock
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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Waste issues
Small quantities (500 m3 HLW vs 1 bn m3 ind pa)
Retained
50-year waiting period
Long life = low radioactivity
Geological storage (Finland, Sweden, UK, Switzerland)
Natural reactors (Oklo, 3 billion years ago)
Valuable resource - use as fuel?
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe
No solution for waste ………….... Fiction
Doesn’t help emissions …………. Fiction
Use in nuclear weapons ………… Fiction
Risk of terrorism ……….............. Fiction
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
U.S. Industrial Safety Accident Rate
2007
3.30
2.20
0.12
Nuclear Power Plants
Utilities
Manufacturing
ISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours. Electric utilities and manufacturing
do not include fatality data.
Sources: Nuclear (World Association of Nuclear Operators), 2006 Data for Electric Utilities and Manufacturing (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Updated: 4/08
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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U.S. Nuclear Industrial Safety Accident
Rate
One-Year Industry Values
ISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours.
Note: Starting in 2008, data includes supplemental personnel.
Source: World Association of Nuclear Operators
Updated: 4/11
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
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February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe …………....................Fiction
No solution for waste ………….... Fiction
Doesn’t help emissions …………. Fiction
Use in nuclear weapons ………… Fiction
Risk of terrorism ……….............. Fiction
Fuel will run out ……………………. Fiction
They’re too big …………………...... Fiction
They’re too expensive ….……….. Fiction
Use renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Summary
• Whirlwind guide
• Many fallacies circulating
• Efficiency paramount
• Serious topic, serious consideration
• Going gets tough….facts, not fiction!
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie
Radiation and Protection
February 2012
better environment with nuclear energy
www.bene.ie