目标和绩效预算
Performance Budgeting Course,
APFDC, Shanghai, October 2010
绩效预算课程
APFDC，上海，2010年10月
Prepared by Marc Robinson
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本节要点
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What are performance targets? 什么是绩效目标？
When do targets become a form of performance
budgeting? 在什么情况下目标会成为绩效预算的一种形式？
What are the potential downsides of targets?
目标的潜在不利方面是什么？
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How best to set targets 如何最好地制定目标
Case study of UK Public Service Agreements system
英国公共服务协议系统的案例研究
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什么是绩效目标？
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Expected level of performance
预期的绩效水平
◦ Numerically specified objective 量化的目标
◦ Timeline for achievement 完成时间
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Examples: 例子
◦ Increase literate 11 year-olds from 63% to 80% by 2002
到2002年，将11岁儿童的识字率由63%提高到80%
◦ Reduce unit cost of passport processing by 5% by 2011
到2011年，将护照办理单位成本减少5%
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不要把目标和以下内容混淆：
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Performance indicators
绩效指标
◦ All targets are based on indicators 所有目标都建立在指标基础上
◦ But targets are not indicators 但是目标不是指标
◦ Indicators don’t set goals or timelines
指标不设定目标和完成时间
◦ Indicators are only measures 指标只是一种测量方法
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Unquantified objectives
没有定量的目的
◦ E.g. increase police investigation success rate
如，提高警察侦察成功率
◦ E.g. improve efficiency of visa processing 如，提高签证效率
◦ Valid on a continuing basis 持续有效
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Statements of aspiration
愿望陈述
◦ e.g. zero complaints; abolition of poverty 如，零投诉；消除贫穷
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目标和绩效预算
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Targets become a form of PB when
在下列情形时，目标成为绩效预算的一部分
◦ Targets are linked to the level of funding provided
目标与提供的拨款水平相联系
◦ Targets are set in the budget process
目标在预算过程中设定
◦ Targets focus on results – outcomes and outputs
目标关注结果——最终结果和产出
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Issues raised
凸显的问题
◦ Output targets? Outcome targets? 产出目标？结果目标？
◦ Relationship between target and funding 目标和拨款的关系
◦ Consequences of failing to meet targets 未能实现目标的后果
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案例研究：英国公共服务协议系统
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英国预算中的目标设定：1998-2007
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Public Service Agreement system
公共服务协议系统
◦ As operated before radical change in 2007
如2007年大变革之前一样运作
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Performance targets at centre of system绩效以系统中心为目标
Set as integral part of budget process
设定为预算过程的主要部分
◦ Targets intended to be related to resourcing
目标要和资源分配联系起来
◦ A multi-year budget process 多年度预算过程
◦ Spending Review every 3 years, sets 3 year budgets for ministries
政府部门设定三年期预算，每3年进行支出审核。
◦ Targets set as part of the Spending Review
目标也作为支出重审的一部分
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公共服务协议系统目标的例子
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Proportion 11 year-olds meeting a defined literacy
standard to increase from 63% to 80% by 2002
到2002年，符合识字标准的11岁儿童比例由63%提高到80%
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Proportion meeting numeracy standard to increase
from 62% to 75% by 2002
到2002年，符合识数标准的11岁儿童比例由62%提高到75%
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Reduce health inequalities by 10% as measured by
infant mortality and life expectancy at birth
通过出生婴儿死亡率和预期寿命将健康不均等水平降低10%
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Reduce crime by 15% and further in high crime areas.
犯罪率降低15%，在犯罪高发区犯罪率降低更多
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公共服务协议系统目标的特性
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Focus on small number of targets 注重少数目标
Outcomes target focus 最终结果目标关注的重点是：
◦ Objective from beginning, but took time
开始就设定的目的，不过要耗费时间
◦ Initially, many output & even process targets
最初就设定的许多产出以及过程目标
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Improvement targets mainly 主要是改善性目标
Raises contextual factors issue 提出背景性问题
◦ Limited controllability of some targets 有些目标的可控性有限
◦ E.g. unemployment and poverty rates 如，失业率和贫困率
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Government position: 政府的立场：
◦ Outcomes are what matters 重要的是最终结果
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公共服务协议系统的演进
综合性支出
审核（1998）
CSR98
Comprehensive
Spending
Review (1998)
CSR 98
600个目标
支出审核
（2000）
SR00
Spending
Review
2000
SR02
130个目标
160个目标
130 targets
160 targets
Significant
首次公布PSA
系统目标设置
Spending
Review
2002
SR00
600 targets
First set of
PSAs
published
支出审核
（2002）
SR02
changes to
CSR model
客户服务代表模
型的重大改变
Greater
continuity,
architecture
refined
更大的连续性、
精简的结构
支出审核
（2004）
SR04
Spending
Review
2004
SR04
110个目标
综合性支
出审核
CSR07
Comprehensive
Spending
Review
CSR07
30个具体目标
30
Objectives
110 targets
Introduction of
standards
focus on
outcomes
采用注重最终
结果的标准
Source: drawn partly from Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit
A very different
framework:
Objectives linked
to set of
performance
indicators.
Very limited use
of targets
一个非常不同
的框架：同绩
效指标相关的
具体目标，对
目标的有限应
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公共服务协议系统当初是否成功？
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Great success against many targets, e.g.
许多目标非常成功，如
◦ Education (literacy, numeracy etc) 教育（识字率、识数率）
◦ Waiting times in health system cut 在医疗卫生机构等待的时间减少
◦ Even where the targets weren’t fully met
甚至在目标没有完全实现的地方
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And in areas where role of external factors was unclear
在外界因素作用不清楚的领域
◦ Cancer & heart disease mortality rate reductions
癌症和心脏病死亡率下降
◦ Crime rates. 犯罪率
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2007年系统的结束
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2007 Spending Review 2007年支出审核
Targets completely de-emphasized不再重视目标
National performance objectives set 国家绩效具体目标设置
◦ 30, reflecting key policy priorities 30个，反映关键政策的优先性
◦ Delivery Agreement for each PSA objective
针对PSA系统的每个具体目标都签订绩效协议
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Set of indicators for each PSA objective
对PSA系统的每个目的都设定多个指标
◦ 2-6 per objective 每个目的设定2-6个指标
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A few of these indicators have targets 有些指标有目标
◦ But most don’t 但大多数没有
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目标和拨款的联系强度
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Supposed to be linked: 应该具有联系
◦ Additional funding → tougher targets 额外拨款→ 目标更难实现
◦ But outcomes can’t be linked closely to funding
但是最终结果不能与拨款紧密相关
◦ Contextual factors 背景性因素
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In reality, link is pretty loose 实际上，联系相当松散
Can’t punish just because targets not achieved
不能因为目标没有实现而进行惩罚
◦ Process to consider why not achieved
对目标没有实现的原因进行考虑的过程
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Negotiation as part of budget process gives targets
muscle 协议作为预算过程的一部分对目标有约束力
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对目标体制的批评
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Gaming and perverse effects
轻率而反常的效果
◦ Of course, some truth in this 当然，部分批评是正确的
◦ But on the whole, exaggerated 但总的来说，言过其词
◦ Selective target setting & perverse effects
精选的目标设置和反常的效果
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Wrong targets chosen or emphasized 选择或强调错误目标
◦ E.g. waiting times less important that care
如，等待的次数不如治疗本身重要
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Micro-management
微观管理
◦ Loss of professional and local autonomy 专业独立和地方自治的缺少
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No space of local choice
没有地方选择的余地
◦ On service priorities 在服务优先性方面
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目标：一般性问题
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目标的管理背景
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Need for plans to achieve targets 设定计划来实现目标的必要性
Dialogue on achievement versus target
对成绩与目标进行比较沟通
◦ Performance report 绩效报告
◦ Discussion of what went wrong 对发生错误的地方进行讨论
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Intervention/support for serious failure
对严重失败进行的干预和支持
◦ Business Process redesign support 业务流程再设计的支持
◦ PM’s Service Delivery Unit in UK 英国首相服务提供部
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Incentives for target achievement
对目标完成的激励
◦ Financial, managerial freedoms etc… 财务自由、管理自由等
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最终结果目标
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Controllability issue
可控性问题
◦ External factors 外部因素
◦ E. g. childhood obesity 如，儿童肥胖
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Should all targets be controllable? 所有目标都应可控吗？
◦ Some argue this 有些人同意这一观点
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But outcomes matter most 但是最终结果最重要
Handling impact of contextual factors 处理背景性因素的影响
◦ Identify in advance as “risk factors” 预先识别“风险因素”
◦ Take account of in performance dialogue
在绩效讨论时要加以考虑
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选择正确的目标值
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Agency incentives to set targets too low
代理机构有动机设定过低的目标
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Arbitrary target setting errors
随意的目标设置误差
◦ “A bit better” “稍有改善”
◦ Big leap: stretch target 一大步：延伸目标
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Informed target-setting
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目标设置有根据
Start with good baseline numbers 从良好的基准数字开始
Identify trends and contextual factors 了解趋势和背景因素
Consultation with front line 咨询一线人员
Achievement of more effective units 实现更为有效的单位
Studies of scope for improvement 研究是否有改善余地
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反常的效果
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Unintended adverse consequences
A problem with PIs in general
意想不到的负面结果
总的来说，应该是绩效信息存在问题
◦ Increase with pressure to perform on PIs
随着依照绩效信息而执行的压力增加
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Issue particularly with targets 尤其是与目标有关的问题
Types of perverse effects: 反常效果的类型
◦ 1) Unmeasured performance dimensions suffer
绩效维度不可测量
◦ 2) Lack of incentive for excellence 缺少追求卓越的动力
◦ 3) Avoiding difficult clients/cases 躲避难以处理的顾客或案例
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轻率行为
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Manipulation or falsification of data 操纵或伪造数据
Some proven episodes of falsification 一些已经证明的伪造事件
Example of manipulation: 操纵的例子
◦ “Storming” of accident and emergency wards at time waiting
times are measured
意外事故的发生和急诊室等待的次数可能被操纵
◦ Data is not falsified, just misleading 数据不是伪造的，只是有误导性
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Gaming used by some to also include perverse effects
有些人采取的轻率行为也包括悖谬效果
◦ We won’t use it that way 我们不会用这种方式
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忽视了未测量的情况
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Example: target for output cost
例子：产出成本的目标
◦ Quality of output not captured in target 目标中未体现产出质量
◦ E.g. cost of medical treatment 如，治疗成本
◦ Easy path: skimp on quality to reduce costs
捷径：对偷工减料以降低成本
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Applies to performance aspects which are
适用于绩效方面
◦ Not included in the target 未包括在目标中
◦ Substitutes for measured performance 测定的绩效的替代品
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没有追求卓越的动力
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E.g. minimized effort on gifted students
如，在天才学生身上付出最少的努力
◦ In context of targets for minimum acceptable levels of literacy,
numeracy etc.
如果把识字率和识数率的最低可接受水平设为目标，就会出现上述情况
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E.g. if the same waiting list target is applied to all hospitals
如，如果对所有医院设定同样的等待名单目标
◦ Impact on those which already exceed target? 对那些已经超过目标的医
院有何影响？
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Applies to all threshold targets
适用于所有门槛目标
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躲避难以处理的顾客或案例
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Literacy targets example again: 还是以识字率目标为例
◦ Some students difficult to get to the target 有些学生难以达到
目标
◦ Or even impossible (major disabilities)
或者甚至不可能（严重残疾）
◦ Danger that they will be neglected 这些学生会被忽略的风险
◦ Concentrate on students easier to get to level
主要关注那些更容易达到水平标准的学生
◦ “Marginal” students bias 对边缘学生的偏见
◦ Major equity problem 严重的公平问题
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那么，目标是个好办法吗？
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Effects on measured performance clear
对测量绩效的清晰影响
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Perverse effects appear exaggerated
Waiting times example 等待次数的例子
反常效果显得被夸大
◦ Research of Kelman & Friedman (2007)
Kelman & Friedman (2007) 的研究
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Ethical commitment to service
服务的道德承诺
◦ Public service motivation 公共服务的动机
◦ Professional ethics 职业道德
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QA mechanisms 质量评价机制
Context of target-setting important 目标设置环境很重要
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结论
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Target setting is a great performance tool
目标设置是一种杰出的绩效工具
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Despite the critics
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Set targets carefully and selectively
尽管有批评
谨慎地、选择性地设置目标
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Gradualism in increasing target role
渐进地提高目标的作用
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Targets appropriate to level at which set
目标在哪一层是合适的
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