Chapter 3 The investment Process 1. The importance of an investment policy statement. 2. The various types of securities brokers and brokerage accounts. 3. How to calculate initial and maintenance margin. 4. The workings of short sales. Ayşe Yüce Copyright © 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson 3-1 Investment Overview Fundamental Question: Why invest at all? We invest today to have more tomorrow. Investment is simply deferred consumption. We choose to wait because we want more to spend later. Investors have their own investment objectives and strategies The Investment Policy Statement (IPS) is designed to reflect your objectives and strategies: Objectives Constraints 3- 2 Investment Overview Objectives: Risk and Return In formulating investment objectives, the individual must balance return objectives with risk tolerance. Investors must think about risk and return. Investors must think about how much risk they can handle. Your risk tolerance is affected by Your ability to take risk Your willingness to take risk Investor Constraints Resources What is the minimum sum needed? What are the associated costs? Horizon. When do you need the money? Liquidity. How high is the possibility that you need to sell the asset quickly? Taxes Which tax bracket are you in? Special circumstances. Does your company provide any incentive? What are your regulatory and legal restrictions? 3- 3 Investment Strategies and Policies •Investment management. Should you manage your investments yourself? •Market timing. Should you try to buy and sell in anticipation of the future direction of the market? •Asset allocation. How should you distribute your investment funds across the different classes of assets? •Security selection. Within each class, which specific securities should you buy? 3- 4 Asset Allocation or Security Selection? Is asset allocation or security selection more important to the success of a portfolio? Most people are inclined to think security selection is the more important element for successful investing. Research shows, however, that asset allocation is the more important determinant of portfolio returns. Many experts suggest: About 90 percent of portfolio performance stems from asset allocation. So, 10 percent of portfolio performance comes from security selection. How is this result possible? Well, consider the Crash of 2008. Bonds outperformed stocks in 2008 Even those elusive “skilled stock pickers” might underperform bonds Stocks tend to move together Even a “skilled stock picker” would have trouble beating bonds if most stock prices are performing poorly relative to bond prices Choosing a Broker Brokers are traditionally divided into three groups distinguished by the level of service provided, as well as the level of commissions charged: 1. full-service brokers 2. discount brokers 3. deep-discount brokers As the brokerage industry becomes more competitive, the differences among broker types continues to blur. Another important change is the rapid growth of online brokers, also known as e-brokers or cyberbrokers. Online investing has really changed the industry. slashing brokerage commissions providing investment information Customers place buy and sell orders over the Internet Many full-service brokers offer an advisory-based relationship for clients. Rather than charging commissions on every transaction, the investment advisor charges an annual fee, say 1-2%, based on the account balance. This fee covers all services associated with advice and trading. An advisory-based relationship can align the interests of the client and 3the 6 advisor. Choosing a Broker © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 7 Broker-Customer Relations There are several important things to remember when you deal with a broker: Any advice you receive is not guaranteed. Your broker works as your agent and has a legal duty to act in your best interest. Brokerage firms, however, make profits from brokerage commissions. Your account agreement will probably specify that any disputes will be settled by arbitration and that the arbitration is final and binding. Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF): Insurance fund covering investors’ brokerage accounts with member firms. Most brokerage firms belong to the CIPF, which insures each account for up to $1,000,000 for losses of securities, commodity and futures contracts. Important: The CIPF does not guarantee the value of any security (unlike CDIC coverage). Rather, CIPF protects whatever amount of cash and securities that were in your account, in the event of fraud or other failure. 3- 8 Opening Your Brokerage Account (a) Open a brokerage or trading account (b) Deposit $10,000 into account (c) Buy 100 Shares of Disney at $33 per share (d) Pay Commission, Say $50 (e) $6,650 Cash in Account $3,300 Stock In Account Brokerage Accounts A Cash account is a brokerage account in which securities are paid for in full. A Margin account is a brokerage account in which, subject to limits, securities can be bought and sold short on credit. In a margin purchase, the portion of the value of an investment that is not borrowed is called the margin. Of course, the portion that is borrowed incurs an interest charge. This interest is based on the broker’s call money rate. The call money rate is the rate brokers pay to borrow money to lend to customers in their margin accounts. 3- 10 Example: Margin Accounts, The Balance Sheet • You buy 1,000 Pfizer (PFE) shares at $24 per share. • You put up $18,000 and borrow the rest. • Amount borrowed = $24,000 – $18,000 = $6,000 • Margin = $18,000 / $24,000 = 75% Liabilities and Account Equity Assets 1,000 Shares, PFE Total $ 24,000 $ 24,000 Margin Loan $ 6,000 Account Equity $ 18,000 Total $ 24,000 Margin Accounts In a margin purchase, the minimum margin that must be supplied is called the initial margin. The maintenance margin is the margin amount that must be present at all times in a margin account. When the margin drops below the maintenance margin, the broker can demand more funds. This is known as a margin call. © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 12 Example: The Workings of a Margin Account • Your margin account requires: • an initial margin of 50%, and • a maintenance margin of 30% • A Share in Miller Moore Equine Enterprises (WHOA) is selling for $50 • You have $20,000, and you want to buy as much WHOA as you can. • You may buy up to $20,000 / 0.5 = $40,000 worth of WHOA. Liabilities and Account Equity Assets 800 Shares of WHOA @ $50/share Total $ 40,000 $ 40,000 Margin Loan $ 20,000 Account Equity $ 20,000 Total $ 40,000 Example: The Workings of a Margin Account • • • After your purchase, shares of WHOA fall to $35. (Woe!) New margin = $8,000 / $28,000 = 28.6% < 30% Therefore, you are subject to a margin call. Liabilities and Account Equity Assets 800 Shares of WHOA @ $35/share Total $ 28,000 $ 28,000 Margin Loan $ 20,000 Account Equity $ 8,000 Total $ 28,000 Example: The Effects of Margin, I. You have $30,000 in a margin account that requires 60% initial margin. You can buy $50,000 of stock with this account (why?). Your borrowing rate from your broker is 6.00%. Suppose you buy 1,000 shares of TD Bank, for $50/share. Assume no dividends, and that your borrowing rate is still 6.00%, what is your return if in one year, stock is selling for $60 per share. Your investment is worth $60,000. You owe 6% on the $20,000 you borrowed: $1,200. If you pay off the loan with interest, your account balance is: $60,000 – $21,200 = $38,800. You started with $30,000. Therefore, your return is $8,800 / $30,000 = 29.33%. Suppose TD stock was selling for $40 per share instead of $60 per share? What is your return? © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 15 Example: The Effects of Margin TD stock is selling for $60 per share, but you did not borrow from your broker. You started with $30,000, which means you were able to buy $30,000 / $50 = 600 shares. Your investment is now worth $36,000. Therefore, your return is $6,000 / $30,000 = 20.00%. Suppose TD is selling for $40 per share instead of $60 per share. What is your return in this case? © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 16 Example: How Low Can it Go? Suppose you want to buy 300 shares of Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) at $55 per share. Total cost: $16,500 You have only $9,900—so you must borrow $6,600. Your initial margin is $9,900/$16,500 = 60%. Suppose your maintenance margin is 40%. At what price will you receive a margin call? Ayşe Yüce Copyright © 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Example: How Low Can it Go? This will happen when the price of Pepsico, Inc. drops to $36.67. How so? Well, Number of Shares P Amount Borrowed Maintenanc e Margin Level * Number of Shares P* Solving for the critical stock price, P* , results in P Amount Borrowed Number of Shares 1 - Maintenanc e Margin Level * So here, $6,600 P* 300 22 $36.67. 1 - 0.40 0.60 Annualizing Returns on a Margin Purchase You buy 1,000 shares of Costco (COST) at $60 per share. Your initial margin is 50%. You borrow at the 9 percent call money rate plus 2 percent; assume monthly compounding.. You sell Costco (COST) 3 months later for $63. There were no dividends paid (and suppose the prices above are net of commissions). What is your holding period percentage return and your EAR? Annualizing Returns on a Margin Purchase Answer: First, you have to repay the 3-month loan, so t = (3/12 = .25) Amount Repaid = Amount Borrowed × (1 + interest rate per year)t Amount Repaid = $30,000 × (1 + .11/12).3 = $30,000 × 1.0278 = $30,832.59 Your Sale Proceeds = Cash from Sale – Amount Repaid = $63,000 – 30,832.59 = $32,167.41 Your Profit = Your Sale Proceeds – Your Investment = $32,167.41 - $30,000 = $2,167.41 Annualizing Returns on a Margin Purchase $32,167.41 - $30,000 $2,167.41 Holding Period Percentage Return 0.0722 $30,000 $30,000 1 EAR (1 Holding Period Percentage Return) m (1 0.0722) 4 1.3216 So your EAR is about 32.16%. Note that there are 12/3 = 4 three-month holding periods in a year. Therefore, m = 4. Should conservative investors use margin? No, according to this study from the Winter 2003 issue of the Canadian Investment Review: http://www.investmentreview.com/files/2009/12/leveraged_portfolios1.pdf (There will not be any exam questions about that study.) Ayşe Yüce – Ryerson University Copyright © 2012 McGraw-Hill Ryerson 22 22 Hypothecation and Street Name Registration Hypothecation is the act of pledging securities as a collateral against a loan. This pledge is needed so that the securities can be sold by the broker if the customer is unwilling or unable to meet a margin call. Street name registration is an arrangement under which a broker is the registered owner of a security. (You, as the account holder are the “beneficial owner.”) © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 23 Other Account Issues Trading accounts can also be differentiated by the ways they are managed. Advisory account - You pay someone else to make buy and sell decisions on your behalf. Wrap account - All the expenses associated with your account are “wrapped” into a single fee. Discretionary account - You authorize your broker to trade for you. Asset management account - Provide for complete money management, including check-writing privileges, credit cards, and margin loans. To invest in financial securities, you do not need an account with a broker. One alternative is to buy securities directly from the issuer. Another alternative is to invest in mutual funds. 3- 24 Short Sales, I. • Short Sale is a sale in which the seller does not actually own the security that is sold. Borrow shares from someone Sell the Shares in the market Today Buy shares From the market Return the shares In the Future Note that an investor who buys and owns shares of stock is said to be “long the stock” or to have a “long position.” 3- 25 Short Sales, II. An investor with a long position benefits from price increases. Easy to understand You buy today at $34, and sell later at $57, you profit! Buy low, sell high An investor with a short position benefits from price decreases. Also easy to understand You sell today at $83, and buy later at $27, you profit. Sell high, buy low © 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited 3- 26 Example: Short Sales, I. You short 100 share of Sears shares at $30 per share. Your broker has a 50% initial margin and a 40% maintenance margin on short sales. Value of stock borrowed that will be sold short = $30 × $100 = $3,000 Liabilities and Account Equity Assets Sale Proceeds $ 3,000 Short Position $ 3,000 Initial Margin Deposit $ 1,500 Account Equity $ 1,500 Total $ 4,500 Total $ 4,500 3- 27 Example: Short Sales, II. Sears stock falls to $20 per share. Sold at $30, value today is $20, so you are "ahead" by $10 per share, or $1,000. Also, new margin: $2,500 / $2,000 = 125% Liabilities and Account Equity Assets Sale Proceeds $ 3,000 Short Position $ 2,000 Initial Margin Deposit $ 1,500 Account Equity $ 2,500 $ 4,500 Total $ 4,500 Total 3- 28 Example: Short Sales, III. Sears stock price rises to $40 per share. You sold short at $30, stock price is now $40, you are "behind" by $10 per share, or $1,000. Also: new margin = $500 / $4,000 = 12.5% < 40% Therefore, you are subject to a margin call. Assets Liabilities and Account Equity Sale Proceeds $ 3,000 Short Position $ 4,000 Initial Margin Deposit $ 1,500 Account Equity $ Total $ 4,500 Total $ 4,500 500 3- 29 More on Short Sales Short interest is the amount of common stock held in short positions. In practice, short selling is quite common and a substantial volume of stock sales are initiated by short sellers. Note that with a short position, you may lose more than your total investment, as there is no theoretical limit to how high the stock price may rise. Short Sellers face Constraints. From government intervention Also, there might not be enough shares available to borrow to short sell. Constraints reduce liquidity, increase volatility, and lead to inefficient pricing. 3- 30 Finding Short Positions Useful Internet Sites www.finra.org (a reference for dispute resolution) www.bearmarketcentral.com (a reference for short selling) www.nasdaq.com (a reference for short interest) www.moneycentral.msn.com (a reference for building a portfolio— search the site for “Build your first stock portfolio”) www.sharebuilder.com (a reference for opening a brokerage account) www.buyandhold.com (another reference for opening a brokerage account) www.individual.ml.com (a risk tolerance questionnaire from Merrill Lynch) www.money-rates.com (a reference for current broker call money rate) finance.yahoo.com (a reference for short sales on particular stocks)