November 2012
Information Session
Line-up
• IHS Demography & UE changes 2 July 2012
• Unbundling of Living Standards Measure (LSM) 6 August
2012
• Expansion Panel Plans
• Metering
• 2013 Universe Update schedule
• TV Events Data Release
2
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IHS Demography & UE changes 2
July 2012
IHS Global Insight estimates applies to
AMPS 2011B
TAMS Universe Update 2 July 2012: Move from 2011A to 2011B (6 month AMPS data)
Adults 15+ TV Population
2011A
2011B
#Difference
% Difference
Total TV Population
29 209 654
30 039 437
829 783
2.8
Nguni
11 027 342
11 979 797
952 455
Sotho
English/ Other
Afrikaans/ Both
9 997 586
3 433 374
4 751 351
10 236 856
3 194 837
4 627 947
239 270
-238 537
-123 404
8.6
2.4
-6.9
-2.6
LSM 1 – 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM 10
4 727 909
5 609 036
7 031 159
3 862 070
2 784 117
3 007 468
2 187 894
4 889 073
5 630 683
7 518 738
3 876 841
2 889 648
3 129 350
2 105 104
161 164
21 647
487 579
14 771
105 531
121 882
-82 790
3.4
0.4
6.9
0.4
3.8
4.1
-3.8
Metropolitan
11 008 610
12 175 340
1 166 730
City/ Large Town
Small Town/ Village
Settlement/ Rural
4 320 409
3 795 804
10 084 831
4 452 069
3 812 746
9 599 280
131 660
16 942
-485 551
10.6
3.0
0.4
Significant increase
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Significant decrease
-4.8
4
Universe Update 2011B
Individuals by Province
Current
Pre July
5
SAARF TAM Information day
Unbundling of Living Standards
Measure (LSM) 6 August 2012
What do we mean by weighting?
• The process by which the data of each individual in the sample is
expanded to the universe so that the data released is representative of
the South African population.
• While the universe remains constant, an individuals ‘weight’ may differ
slightly day to day as the sample is different every day
• An individual has one daily weight which satisfies all weighting
characteristics eg sex, age, LSM, region, etc.
7
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Random Iterative Method
(RIM) Weighting
A method of weighting that puts selected non-interlocking
and grouped interlocking variables in isolation through an
iterative sequence of weighting adjustments. The
sequence adjusts for each rim in turn and then repeats
itself as many times as is required in order to obtain a
convergence, in which the sum of the weighted rims
matches the target population estimates, or is as close
as is possible to achieve.
Source: Nielsen Audience Measurement Glossary
8
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SAARF TAM Information day
RIM Weighting example
9
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SAARF TAM Information day
Recent updates to TAMS data
•2nd July: Universe Update (with new IHS population figures).
•6th August: RIM weight unbundling.
Changes to LSM RIM weight structure
10
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Universe trend Aug-2010 to Sept-2012
•The overall TV Universe has grown.
•The non-satellite Universe has decreased slightly, while the satellite
universe has shown significant growth.
Universe
Update
Jan 2012
Universe
Update
July 2012
RIM Weight
changes
Aug 2012
PVR Panel introduced into
TAMS sample – Dec 2011
11
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Live, Monday to Sunday, 2h00 to 25h59
TVR 000s trend Aug-2010 to Sept-2012
•TVR 00s for Tot Individuals has not shown the same degree of growth as the
Universe, indicating declining viewing levels.
•Non-satellite TVR 000s have declined, as has the non-satellite Universe.
•Satellite TVR 000s have grown, in line with the rapidly increasing Universe.
Universe
Update
Jan 2012
Universe
Update
July 2012
RIM Weight
changes
Aug 2012
PVR Panel introduced into
TAMS sample – Dec 2011
12
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Live, Monday to Sunday, 2h00 to 25h59
TVR % trend Aug-2010 to Sept-2012
•Overall, viewing levels have shown a slow, but steady decline.
•This is true of both non-satellite and satellite target markets.
Universe
Update
Jan 2012
Universe
Update
July 2012
RIM Weight
changes
Aug 2012
PVR Panel introduced into
TAMS sample – Dec 2011
13
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Live, Monday to Sunday, 2h00 to 25h59
ATV trend Aug-2010 to Sept-2012
•Average time spent, in minutes, reflects the general decline in audiences,
as seen in the TVR percentages.
Universe
Update
Jan 2012
Universe
Update
July 2012
RIM Weight
changes
Aug 2012
PVR Panel introduced into
TAMS sample – Dec 2011
14
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Live, Monday to Sunday, 2h00 to 25h59
The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 1 – 5 target markets
•Prior to 6th August LSM 1 – 5 was grouped.
•The separation of LSM 5 from LSM 1 – 4 resulted in a re-distribution of
audiences as shown in the test data .
The Universes for LSM 1 – 5, for both sets of data, add up to 10.7 Million, but LSM 1 – 4
Universe increases from 2.9 Million to almost 5 Million. Conversely, the LSM 5 Universe
decreases from 7. 8 Million To 5.7 Million. Although on the surface it appears that Universe
numbers have been lost in LSM 5, they have in fact been re-distributed to LSM 1 – 4, hence
the increase in this group.
Week 11, 12/03/2012 – 18/03/2012
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15
The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 1 – 5 target markets
LSM 5 Universe
decreases
LSM 1-4 Universe
increases
16
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LSM 5 – 7: various target markets
After the Universe update in
Week 27, there was a slight
increase in LSM 5 – 7 TVR 000
sizes. However, due to the redistribution of audiences into
LSM 1 – 4, following the LSM
RIM weight change, TVR 000s
decrease after Week 32.
Viewing levels for LSM 5 – 7
target markets increase (some
slightly and others substantially),
despite the re-distribution of
audiences.
Live + VOSDAL , Monday to Sunday,
2h00 to 25h59
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
17
The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 8 – 10 target markets
•Prior to 6th August LSM 7 – 8 was grouped.
•The ungrouping of LSM 7 and 8 also resulted in a re-distribution of
audiences as shown in the test data. The effect is less dramatic than
seen in the LSM 1 – 5 re-distribution.
The Universes for LSM 7 – 8 add up to 6.6 Million, but differ in the way they are distributed
within this grouping. The LSM 8 Universe increases from 2.6 Million to 2.7 Million.
Conversely, the LSM 7 Universe decreases from 4 Million to 3.7 Million. Although on the
surface it appears that Universe numbers have been lost in LSM 7, they have in fact been
re-distributed to LSM 8, hence the slight increase in this group.
Week 11, 12/03/2012 – 18/03/2012
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
18
The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 8 – 10 target markets
LSM 7 Universe
decreases
LSM 8 Universe
increases
19
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The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 8 – 10 target markets
•After the Week 27 Universe Update, Universe for LSM 8 – 10 target
markets generally remained the same.
•After the Week 32 RIM weight change, LSM 8 – 10 target markets
generally had slight increases in their Universe sizes.
20
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The effects of the LSM changes to
LSM 8 – 10 target markets
No substantial changes in TVR
000s are noted in general for LSM
8 – 10 target markets after the
Universe update in Week 27. After
the LSM RIM weight changes in
Week 32, there are increases in
the LSM 8 – 10 TVR 000s.
For LSM 8 – 10 Individuals, a
slight decrease in viewing levels
occurs after the Universe update.
Viewing levels remain the same or
increase generally after the LSM
RIM structure change.
Live + VOSDAL , Monday to Sunday,
2h00 to 25h59
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
21
A word of caution to media planners
Other aspects that users should bear in mind when comparing TAMS data
before and after a universe update are the following:
• Make sure you have not eroded your sample size with too many filters.
Data on small sample sizes is unstable.
• Look at the whole picture i.e. even if you are only interested in LSM 8-10,
do a run that has LSM 1-4, LSM 5-7 and LSM 8-10 in it. This way you can
look at your “target market” in relation to the rest. In fact you might find out
that your “true” target market is actually LSM 5-7 and not LSM 8-10.
• Make sure there were no unusual events like the “World Cup Soccer” in
either you source or projected period.
• Don’t just look at your channels, also look at competing media and other
activities
• Look at extraneous factors like programme schedule changes, special
sporting events, weather conditions…
• Remember Margin of Error.
22
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References
To assist users in using and understanding the TAMS data
after both the new IHS universe estimates were applied to
the TAMS data and some of the TAMS RIMS were
unbundled, three articles were written. Please follow the
links below to the SAARF web site
• Article on Implications when SAARF changed
Demographers
• Article on TAMS LSM and other RIM Unbundling
• Some Case Studies, which looks at the effect of both
changes
23
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2013 Universe Update schedule
Next Universe update scheduled for
Jan 2013
25
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Expansion Panel Plans / Metering
TAM Expansion
1707
3000+
27
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TV Events Data Release
Data release over holiday season…
29
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Q&A
30
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