Birth By the Numbers 2014 Part I: Is there a problem? Gene Declercq, PhD www.birthbythenumbers.org With support from: The Transforming Birth Fund BirthByTheNumbers.org 12,104 1,296,070 9.2% BirthByTheNumbers.org Total U.S. Births, 1990-2013 4,400,000 4,316,233 4,300,000 4,200,000 4,100,000 4,000,000 3,900,000 Net Decrease 2007-2013 358,656 or 8.3% 3,957,577 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3,800,000 Source: Adapted from CDC VitalSTATS. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/VitalStats.htm BirthByTheNumbers.org U.S. Fertility Rates (per 1,000) by Race/Ethnicity, 1989-2012 All WNH BNH Hisp 110 100 90 80 70 60 20 11 20 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 50 Fertility rates computed by relating total births, regardless of age of mother, to women 15-44 years. SOURCE: adapted from NCHS Annual Birth Reports. Prematurity and Low Birthweight, U.S., 1981-2012 13 12 Prematurity 9.8% Decrease 2006-12 11 10 % 9 Low Birthweight 8 7 6 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Year BirthByTheNumbers.org Percent of all births at home, or in a birthing center, United States, 1990-2012 43% Increase 2004-2012 1.4 1.2 1 46,956 (1.13%) Total home & birth center 0.8 50,761 (1.28%) 35,587 (0.87%) 35,184 Home 0.6 15,577 0.4 Birthing center 0.2 0 Source: NCHS Annual Birth Reports BirthByTheNumbers.org Is the U.S. really doing as badly as it seems in international comparisons? BirthByTheNumbers.org Is the U.S. really doing that badly? How Do we Compare Outcomes? Neonatal Mortality Rate Infant Deaths in First 28 days X 1,000 ________________ Live Births BirthByTheNumbers.org Outcomes: Comparative Neonatal Mortality Rates Rank 1 7 Country Andorra (1/1,000) Rank 14 Country Germany Rank 27 Country Belarus Iceland Ireland Netherlands Japan Israel Greece Luxembourg Italy Cuba San Marino Lithuania Lithuania Singapore Monaco New Zealand Austria (2/1,000) Norway United Kingdom Belgium Portugal Cyprus Rep. of Korea Switzerland Croatia Czech Republic Slovenia Estonia 24 Finland 13 Source: State of the World’s Children2014. United States (4/1,000) Sweden Bahrain,Bosnia,Brunei Australia (3/1,000) Canada, Hungary, Qatar, 26 France 37 Belarus Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia, Uruguay BirthByTheNumbers.org Outcomes Total Births in the five countries in red background in 2012 were 11,429 or fewer than the 12,104 in South Dakota in 2012 Country Andorra 2012 Births 757 Iceland 4,146 Luxembourg 6,034 San Marino 285 Monaco 207 TOTAL 11,429 BirthByTheNumbers.org What’s a Fair Comparison with the US? In the most recent year available (2011): • Countries with at least 100,000 births • Countries with a total per capita annual expenditure on health of at least $1,500 annually in US dollars. BirthByTheNumbers.org Defining a Set of Countries to Compare with the U.S. 17 Comparison Countries (SOURCE: OECD, Health Data 2012 & State of World’s Children) 2011 Total Births (000) 2011 Total exp. health – PC, US$ PPP Australia 302 Belgium *129 4,061 *19.7 Canada 377 4,521 *26.1 Czech Republic 109 1,966 23.3 France 792 4,118 20.2 *678 4,495 31.4 Greece 106 2,361 NA Israel 166 2,239 19.9 *557 3,012 37.7 Japan 1,051 *3,213 18.0 Korea 471 2,198 34.6 *184 5,099 *15.6 97 2,619 33.3 Spain 471 3,072 24.9 Sweden 112 3,925 16.2 United Kingdom 808 3,406 24.1 3,954 8,508 32.8 Germany Italy Netherlands Portugal United States * 2010 *3,800 2011 % Births by Cesarean *31.2 BirthByTheNumbers.org IOM chose 16 peer countries. 13 are same as the one’s we’ve used. They use 3 countries (Denmark, Finland, Switzerland) that have <100,000 births. We include Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece and Israel BirthByTheNumbers.org How is the U.S. doing relative to comparison countries? Neonatal Mortality Perinatal Mortality Rate Rate Infant Deaths in First 27 days X 1,000 _____________ Live Births Fetal deaths + deaths in the first week X 1,000 _______________ Live births + fetal deaths BirthByTheNumbers.org Neonatal Mortality Rates (per 1,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries with 100,000+ Births 4.04 Uni ted States Canada* 3.7 3 Uni ted Kingdom Australia 2.7 2.7 Net herlands Portugal 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 Ger many France Bel gium* Italy* Israel Greece Spai n 1.7 1.7 Kor ea Czech Republ ic Sweden *2010 rate 1.4 1.1 Japan 0 1 Neonatal Mortality Rate 2 3 Source: OECD Health Data 2014 and NCHS, Deaths Preliminary Data for 2011. 4 5 BirthByTheNumbers.org Neonatal Mortality Rates (per 1,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries with 100,000+ Births 3.7 Canada* 3.45 U.S. WNH Uni ted Kingdom 3 2.7 2.7 Australia Net herlands Portugal 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 Ger many France Bel gium* Italy* Israel Greece Spai n 1.7 1.7 Kor ea Czech Republ ic Sweden *2010 rate 1.4 1.1 Japan 0 1 Neonatal Mortality Rate 2 Source: OECD Health Data 2014 and NCHS, Deaths Preliminary Data for 2011. 3 4 BirthByTheNumbers.org Perinatal Mortality Rates (per 1,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries 100,000+ Births France Australia United Kingdom United States* Belgium# Canada# Netherlands Germany Sweden Greece Israel Italy# Czech Republic Portugal Spain Korea Japan 12.1 8.4 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.1 5.5 5.5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.7 *2006; #2010 3.1 2.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Perinatal Mortality Rate Source: OECD Health Data 2014 BirthByTheNumbers.org Perinatal Mortality Rates (per 1,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries 100,000+ Births France Australia United Kingdom Belgium# Canada# Netherlands Germany United States* WNH Sweden Greece Israel Italy# Czech Republic Portugal Spain Korea Japan 12.1 8.4 7.5 6.5 6.1 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.8 0 Source: OECD Health Data 2014 2 4 6 *2006; #2010 8 10 12 14 BirthByTheNumbers.org Maternal Mortality Ratios Maternal Mortality Ratio Maternal Deaths* all causes X 100,000 _______________ Live births * Deaths in pregnancy and up to 42 days postpartum BirthByTheNumbers.org Maternal Mortality Rates, (per 100,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries with 300,000+ births 17.2 Korea 16.8 United States^ 8.9 France* 7.6 Canada# 6.6 United Kingdom 4.7 Germany 4.1 Japan Australia* 3.4 Spain 3.0 Italy* 2.9 2.0 U.S. 2007: Black non-Hispanic White non-Hispanic Hispanic 28.4 10.5 8.9 *2010; #2009; ^CMQCC Estimate Maternal Mortality Ratio Sources: OECD Health Data 2014; ^California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC) 2014; NCHS. 2009. Deaths, Final Data, 2007. 18.0 BirthByTheNumbers.org Maternal Mortality Rates, (per 100,000 births), 2011, Industrialized Countries with 300,000+ births 17.2 Korea 10.5 United States^ 8.9 France* 7.6 Canada# 6.6 United Kingdom 4.7 Germany 28.4 10.5 8.9 4.1 Japan Australia* U.S. 2007: Black non-Hispanic White non-Hispanic Hispanic 3.4 Spain 3.0 Italy* 2.9 *2010; #2009; ^2007 Maternal Mortality Ratio 2.0 Sources: OECD Health Data 2014; NCHS. 2009. Deaths, Final Data, 2007. 18.0 Are things Getting Better or Worse? Are things Getting Better or Worse? Yes Are things Getting Better or Worse? Yes Things are getting better in the U.S., but at a slower pace than comparable countries Examining Trends over Time 4.6 U.S. 13% decrease 4.0 4.0 Industrialized Countries 23% decrease 3.0 3.1 2.0 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2.3 2011 5.0 2000 Rate per 1,000 live births Neonatal Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births), 20002011, U.S., & Ave. for Industrialized Countries* * Countries with 100,000+ births (2009): Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, S. Korea, Sweden, U.K. Source: OECD Health Data, 2014 & MacDorman MF, et al. Recent declines in infant mortality in the United States, 2005–2011. NCHS data brief, no 120. Hyattsville, MD: NCHS. 2013. 4.6 U.S. 4.0 2011 2.3 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2001 2.0 2005 3.1 2004 3.0 2003 If the U.S. neonatal mortality rate equaled the current average rate of the other countries in 2011, that would mean about 6,972 fewer deaths to babies 28 days or younger annually. 4.0 2002 5.0 2000 Rate per 1,000 live births Neonatal Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births), 20002011, U.S., & Ave. for Industrialized Countries* * Countries with 100,000+ births (2009): Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, S. Korea, Sweden, U.K. Source: OECD Health Data, 2014 & MacDorman MF, et al. Recent declines in infant mortality in the United States, 2005–2011. NCHS data brief, no 120. Hyattsville, MD: NCHS. 2013. Capacity – 68,756 Perinatal Mortality Rates, 2000-2011 , U.S., & Ave. for Industrialized Countries* 7 U.S. 6% decrease 6.5 6 5.5 Industrialized Countries 14% decrease 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Countries with 100,000+ births (2011): Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, S. Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom Sources: OECD Health Data 2014; NCHS. 2012. Fetal & Perinatal Mortality, 2006. BirthByTheNumbers.org Maternal Mortality Ratios (per 100K births), 2000-2011, U.S. & Comparable Countries * Deaths per 100,000 live births 20 Case Ascertainment? U.S. 71% Increase 16 12 Industrialized Countries 5 % Decrease 8 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Countries with 300,000+ births (2011): Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Spain, United Kingdom Sources: OECD Health Data 2014; ^California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC) 2014; NCHS. 2009. Deaths, Final Data, 2007. NOTE: 2008-2010 US rates unofficial^ What about process? BirthByTheNumbers.org US Cesarean Rates, 1989-2013 34 32 30 1,294,128 % 28 % 26 24 22 20 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 % Tot US 23 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 21. 22. 23 24 26 28 29 30 31 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 If the 2013 cesarean rate was the same as in 1996, there would have been 475,000 fewer cesareans in the U.S. in ’13. Source: National Center for Health Statistics Annual Birth Reports Primary Cesarean and VBAC Rates, U.S., 1989-2011 30% Prim Ces Rate VBAC 25% 20% 15% 9.2% Source: NCHS. Annual Birth Reports & Vital Stats 20 11 20 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 5% 19 99 Note: 2005-2011 unofficial 19 97 10% r = -.95 Cesarean Rates in Industrialized Countries* with 100,000+ Births, 2011 Italy Korea *Portugal United States Germany *Australia *Canada Spain United Kingdom Czech Republic France *Belgium Israel Japan Sweden *Nether lands 10% 37.7% 34.6% 33.4% 32.8% 31.4% 30.8% 26.1% 24.9% 24.1% 23.3% 20.2% 19.90% 19.8% 18.0% 16.2% 15.6% *2010 * No data on cesarean rates in Greece 45% Sources: OECD Health Data 2014; U.S. Natality Data; Japan – sample; Lancet 6736(09)61870-5. VBAC Rates, Selected Countries, 2004 VBACs 8 U.S. Latvia Lithuania Canada Estonia Malta Slovenia Spain-Valencia Scotland Belg-Flanders France Denmark Czech Rep Germany Sweden Finland Norway Netherlands 9 19 20 24 25 25 25 27 32 35 39 41 41 45 51 51 55 0 10 20 30 40 Source: Adapted from EuroPeristats, US & Canadian Data 50 60 Do High Rates of Intervention Matter? 1. Outcomes 2. Costs BirthByTheNumbers.org Gestational Age, U.S. All Births, 1990 30% 25% 20% 20% 22% 23% 14% 15% 11% 10% 5% 7% 2% 1% <32 32-33 0% 34-36 37-38 39 40 41 42+ * Only births occurring at home. Source: Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Curtin S and Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2012. National vital statistics reports; vol 62 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Gestational Age, U.S. All Births, 2012 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 9% 8% 10% 6% 5% 2% 1% <32 32-33 0% 34-36 37-38 39 40 41 42+ * Only births occurring at home. Source: Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Curtin S and Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2012. National vital statistics reports; vol 62 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Gestational Age, U.S. All Births, 1990 & 2012 30% 30% 1990 2012 25% 25% 22% 20% 20% 23% 20% 14% 15% 11% 10% 5% 7% 8% 9% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% <32 32-33 34-36 37-38 39 40 41 42+ * Only births occurring at home. Source: Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Curtin S and Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2012. National vital statistics reports; vol 62 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Gestational Age, U.S. All Births & Planned Home Births*, 2012 35% 31% 30% 30% All Home 25% 25% 24% 20% 20% 19% 15% 15% 10% 5% 9% 8% 10% 6% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% <32 32-33 34-36 0% 37-38 39 40 41 42+ * Only births occurring at home. Source: Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Osterman MJK, Curtin S and Mathews TJ. Births: Final data for 2012. National vital statistics reports; vol 62 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014. Economics of Childbirth in the U.S. LEADING MAJOR DIAGNOSTIC CATEGORIES by NUMBER OF HOSPITAL DISCHARGES, U.S., 2012 Circulatory System 4,796,175 4,160,286 Pregnancy, Childbirth & The Puerperium 3,933,511 Newborns & Other Neonates 3,549,166 Respiratory System Musculoskeletal System & Conn Tissue 3,251,134 Digestive System 3,242,725 2,192,941 Nervous System ,00 0 7,0 00 ,00 0 6,0 00 ,00 0 5,0 00 4,0 00 3,0 00 2,0 00 1,0 00 ,00 0 1,428,045 ,00 0 Infectious & Parasitic Diseases ,00 0 1,428,060 0 Mental Diseases & Disorders ,00 0 1,671,380 Kidney & Urinary Tract AHRQ. 2014. HCUPnet, Healthcare Cost & Utilization Project. Rockville, MD: AHRQ. http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov. Accessed 3/1/2014. MEDIAN FACILITY LABOR & BIRTH CHARGES BY MODE OF BIRTH, U.S., 2012 $20,000 NOTE: Hospital charges; no physician costs $19,358 $16,465 70% $11,539 $9,705 $0 Vaginal no Complications Cesarean No Complications Vaginal Complications Cesarean Complications Sources: AHRQ. 2011. HCUPnet, Healthcare Cost & Utilization Project. Rockville, MD: AHRQ. http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov. Accessed 3/1/14; Estimated Total Charges, Hospital Birth, U.S., 1993-2012 (000,000) Vag no Compl. Vag w Compl. Ces no Compl. Ces w/ Compl. 60,000 50,000 40,000 $ 55,771 30,000 $ 14,039 20,000 10,000 20 11 20 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 0 Sources: AHRQ. 2009. HCUPnet, Healthcare Cost & Utilization Project. Rockville, MD: AHRQ. http://hcupnet.ahrq.gov. Accessed 3/1614. Is it hopeless? What can be done •Evidence – keep an open mind and ask different questions. • Advocacy – work for change. BirthByTheNumbers.org Rethinking the Evidence Safe Prevention of Primary Cesarean Delivery www.acog.org/Resources_And_Publications/Obstetric_Care_Consensus_Series/Safe_Preventio n_of_the_Primary_Cesarean_Delivery BirthByTheNumbers.org Childbirth Advocacy Led by Mothers http://www.choicesinchildbirth.org/ Childbirth Advocacy Led by Mothers www.thebusinessofbeingborn.com/ BirthByTheNumbers.org Childbirth Advocacy Led by Mothers https://www.childbirthconnection.org/ Childbirth Advocacy Led by Mothers http://orgasmicbirth.com/online-resources www.ourbodiesourselves.org/ www.birthbythenumbers.org Follow Birth by the Numbers on Social Media: RSS (blog): www.birthbythenumbers.org www.facebook.com/BirthByTheNumbers Twitter: @BirthNumbers Email: birthbynumbers@gmail.com “Birth by the Numbers” on Pinterest