Chapter:7
POPULATION GROWTH
World Population
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Figure 7-1 in Radelet: World population was below
half billion and had increased very slowly until 1500.
In 1804 1 billion, in 1927 2 billion, in 1960 3 billion,
in 1974 4 bn, in 1987 5 bn, in 1999 6 bn. We reach
each one billion in less time. And so on? What
happens if ?
Malthus (1766-1834) said that population would
increase geometrically with increasing income, but
the only way to control population would be wars,
epidemic diseases and disasters since the
arithmetic increases in the amount of food. He
defend that people wouldn’t control rises in the
population themselves. Malthus did not take
account of Technology and increased productivity in
agriculture.
World Population
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In 1973, The president of World Bank,Robert
Mc Namara: “The biggest single obstacle in
front of the economic and social development
of the underdeveloped world is the galloping
rate of population growth.”
Why is he so pessimistic? According to Solow
(1956), rapid population growth causes a
decrease in per capita income and the
disintegration of capital available to more
people. If the population growth rate is greater
than the increase rate of total production
(income) in the economy, per capita income
falls.
World Population
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In recent years, the World Bank, United Nations
and others have softened the alarmist
expression. The president of WB(1995-2005),
James Wolfensohn: “Today, the Bank and
partner countries are using new approaches to
develop women's health and family planning for
couples ”
Population growth is seen mostly in
underdeveloped countries : in 2000, 80% of the
world's population live in the developing
countries and only 20% of it live in the
developed countries. These rates is also
growing against the developed countries.
World Population
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The share of Europe was 12% in 2003 and
this share will be a 7% in 2050. This creates
a concern. Africa, Middle East and South
Asia are the fastest growing regions.
Demographic Transition Process
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Every country is going through some
common demographic stages. Natural
population growth= Crude birth rate –
crude death rate
Increase in total population: equal to the
natural population growth for the whole world
but, for each country is equal to the natural
population growth minus the net migration.
Crude birth (death) rate: the number of live
births (deaths) per year also per 1000 people.
Demographic Transition Process
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The demographic transition process of Finland:
Figure 7-2.
The first stage: in 1785, high birth (38) and high
death (32) rates. 0,6% natural increase.
The second stage: death rates fall rapidly: in 1825
24. The birth rate is constant or increases: 39. the
rate of increase: 1,4%. The reason: better nutrition,
medical facilities,hygiene.
The third stage: Death rates fall more slowly, at
1910: 17. Birth rates fall: 29. The rate of
increase:1,2%. The reason: families have fewer
children
Demographic Transition Process
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The fourth stage: Natural population growth
rate approaches zero. Both the birth rate (11)
and the death rate (9) are low (2003). By this
trend, the Finnish population of 5 million, of
which at the moment may not doubled any
more at all. The natural increase: 0,2%.
In Germany and Italy, the natural increase is
negative. If there was no migration, their
populations would fall.
Demographic Transition Process
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Developing countries: Draw figure 7-3.
Between 1950-2000 similar process. First
high birth and death rate. Both falling rapidly
but the death rate is falling faster. As a result,
population growth reached 2,5% in 1960s.
But the natural increase since then falls.
In 2000, in the developing countries natural
increase is 1,5%. Main reason is falling birth
rates.
Demographic Transition Process
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The total fertility rate (TFR): Depends on the
average number of children per woman. Between
1962 and 2002, there was a decline in all regions
and countries. To keep the population constant in a
country, TFR should be at least 2.1: “replacement
level”. 2.1 taking into account infant and child
mortality...
Regional dynamics: total population growth in
developed country group is 0.3% ; this is entirely
due to immigration. TFR fell to 1,5 in Europe and
Central Asia. Radelet page 245.
In Africa, TFR is 5. In MENA: 3 and East Asia
&Pacific: 2.
Demographic Transition Process
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In countries including Germany, Italy, and
Japan, where the TFR is below the
replacement level and immigration rates also
are low, policy makers are concerned about
the increasing number of elderly people
dependent on a shrinking labor force. The
social security system may collapse. Retired/
working is increasing.
What will happen ? According to estimates
(UN), around 2050 the average population
stabilizes at 9 billion.
The Demographic Future
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Population momentum: Populations that
have been growing rapidly, as they have
been especially in the developing world, have
large numbers of people in or about to enter
the most fertile age brackets. Even if these
people have just two children, the total
population would continue to grow for a long
time.
In 2050, the most crowded countries: (Table
7-2 Radelet). India, China, USA, Pakistan,
Indonesia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Brazil,
Ethiopia, Congo.
Factors Affecting Fertility
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When opportunities for women working outside the home
increases, fertility decreases.
When income increases, fertility may increase or
decrease.
 If the increase in income due to participation of women
in working life, or the quality of children becomes very
important for women’s entry into the layer of the upper
socioeconomic, fertility decreases.
 But elsewhere the increase in income will reduce the
cost of a child in the budget and is expected to
increase fertility. The data says that falling fertility.
Why?
Factors Affecting Fertility
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Decreasing infant mortality lowers fertility,
because fewer births are needed to produce a given
desired number of surviving children. Because it is
now easier to reach the desired number of raised
children. ( the adult son preference in some
countries increases the fertility).
In the case of children's contribution to family
income fertility is higher than the situation did not.
If there is an institutionalized system of social
insurance, the need for children in old ages
decreases. So fertility decreases. Or developed
capital market also shows the same effect…
Factors Affecting Fertility
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Becker (1960) sees having children as a
consumer goods and he explains rationally.
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The things a family buy while maximizing the
common happiness: 1-number of children, 2quality of children, 3- normal goods and services.
Here the choice between the quality and the
number of children varies.
The opportunity cost of time of woman in the
family particularly increases as her gain
increases(substitution effect). Women's income
increases, so does demand for child (income
effect) but if substitution effect is higher than the
income effect, fertility decreases.
Population Growth-Development
Relation
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The relationship between population growth
and development is expected to be negative.
(Income p.c. = total income/population) .
But in the period of 1990-2002 plotting the
growth rate of population and the growth
rate of GDP p.c. among 125 low&middleincome countries, no relation can be seen.
(Radelet pg. 256). Jordan 3.7%, Armenia
1.3%.
Population Growth-Development
Relation
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If the population grows rapidly, for a given level of
total income, per capita income falls but, in reality
increase in total revenue is not independent from
the population growth. Labor force is one of the
production factors.
Population optimists: Population growth and
intensification (urbanization)
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triggering technology, increasing the efficiency factor.
Romer endogenous growth model tells that.
Economies of scale provides in production and
consumption of various infrastructure services: if there are
many people to use roads and hospitals, it is more efficient.
Julian Simon: human ingenuity entrepreneurs which is the
“ultimate resource” occur in a large population.
Population and Market Failures
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Population growth and externalities: There
can be positive or negative externalities to
the society in determining the number of
children. The optimum choice for individual
may not be optimum for society.
Government services, health, education,
sanitation, transport, etc. are public
properties. These properties may not
increase with the same speed of population
growth, if it grows rapidly.
Population Policy
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The difference between the number of children that
women “plan to have” and “have already”. In Haiti
2000, %40 of the women, one of every 4 children is
“undesirable” throughout the world. (John
Bongaarts).
In China, 1979, “single child” policy. It causes to fall
girls ratio below 50%. (110 male per 100 female).
Girls' education and employment opportunities.
“Us Two, Our Two” policy in India.
“Two is enough” policy in Indonesia, Philippines,
Zimbabwe.