Cancer – Health Needs Assessment overview and focus on Lung Greg.fell@bradford.nhs.uk To contents Approach to presentation • This IS the report. There is no accompanying document. • Additional notes are contained within the notes pages beneath each slide. – File......print.....notes pages..... Approach to data • • • • • No new data analysis. Revised and pulled together what exists already. NYCRIS – QAd and high quality data set – as good as there is. A little old (but reflects QA). We hold local data, but: – – – • Other (mostly older) analyses done. – – – – • QA / analyst capacity / ability to pull it ALL together. Sub regional data has major issues in terms of statistical reliability and robustness. Is Bradford different to any other multi ethnic population? Have findings of these been implemented? Has the epi changed since then? Probably not. Populations, demographics, social characteristics, risk profile changes very slowly. No major innovations in Rx? Thus a new analysis might not give significant new conclusions – and will incur and OC in terms of analyst time. • Conclusions that can already be drawn from this. What are we measuring • Incidence – a measure of risk factor distribution • Stage at presentation – a measure of the efficiency of pick up by health care, broader social and cultural factors • Mortality – a measure of effectiveness of treatment and incidence • Survival – a measure of treatment effectiveness, and is also influenced by stage of Dx To contents Questions and issues explored • Equality – best and worst. • Most common cancer diagnoses • Incidence – A reflection on exposure to risk factors • Survival gap? – Survival being a key measure of effectiveness of treatment once diagnosed. • Late Dx? Staging or mets at presentation. • Mortality – A refection of incidcne and treatment effectiveness. • What does the QOF tell us? – – Not much!!! Prev of all Ca. Might be possible to age standardise to take into account practice differences. • What can be done re stage at presentation – Sx awareness? • Dimensions of equality - Socio economic, ethnic. To contents Contents • Summary / key messages. If you read nothing else read this. • Populations • Common Risk Factors • Screening • Overview of all Cancers • Lung Cancer – – – – – – Risk Factors Incidence Stage at Diagnosis Treatment Survival Mortality • Summary To contents Summary This section summarises the key issues, limited recommendations. Discussion with CLAN re exactly what next is needed. To contents Summary (1) – Risk Factors and populations • Significant variation across groups. Smoking and other risk factors. – Under implementation of preventive interventions – both in clinical practice and broader public health. – Not just smoking, though this is very important. – Opportunities for smoking cessation referral (especially at key life points – receptive to change. Cost effective and clinically effective) – How do we address the epidemiology of smoking. Industrializing tobacco control. Build into ALL care pathways. Critical life points as incentives to quit. Broader tobacco control. – Weight, diet, activity and alcohol consumption are also important risk factors. We don't do enough here – Implementation of preventive interventions should also be equitable. It does not seem to be now (eg smoking cessation) – Big potential for large population gain here – though long term. – CLAN (and lots of others) should champion this among clinicians of all flavours • Age and deprivation structures of populations are very important considerations. Airedale is affluent and old. City is deprived and young To contents Summary (2) – need. Incidence, survival and mortality. Need – incidence survival and mortality. • incidence and mortality rates (Lung) increased dramatically with age • There are important differences in cancer incidence, mortality (and survival in some cancers, but NOT lung) across socioeconomic groups. Work to reduce health inequalities in cancer needs to take these trends into account. • Much of the observed difference in mortality between deprivation categories (all cancers) is explained by lung cancer (inequalities in smoking?) • Mortality rates for lung cancer in men fell significantly over the decade from 1991 - 2000 for all deprivation categories. • In contrast, lung cancer mortality in women showed a small increase overall (significant differences in mortality by socio-economic group remained). – Change in the pattern of smoking prevalence over time? Men quitting more? • There is limited evidence of a survival gap between most / least deprived. If there is a socio economic gap, it is not statistically To contents significant. No ethnicity data. Summary (3) – Screening and early diagnosis. Staging • • • • • Little is known about stage at presentation for Lung (or others) A range of further analysis will be undertaken with the LUCADA audit dataset, possible links into other data sources. This is highlighted in the notes page below. – Likely to show socio economic difference in staging at presentation (or Dx) This leads to consideration of the implementation of a range of early Dx strategies – – Sx education – clinician and public. Culturally aware. Literacy. market and message segmentation; use of peers etc etc – earlier referral – might be warranted…….is there evidence that this will make the difference to survival or mortality rates………….not sure…..but certainly a need to key into the pilots mentioned in Ca Reform Strategy – are we one of them – Clinical culture - referral to exclude a diagnosis – Community diagnostics? Do we need to be smarter about how we route people to diagnostics quickly? How well do we make use of whatever screening monitoring data we can get to monitor equality of uptake. In cervical cancer, there is a large observed variation in screening coverage at practice level. Some population characteristics and some health care system characteristics are factors in this. This is an area NSC are currently activiely exploring. This needs to be carefully considered by CLAN To contents Summary (4) – service provision and system performance. Service Provision, treatment use and performance • analysis of service provision is difficult to interpret in terms of equity, as elements of service provision are affected by many factors Treatments • There is some evidence of variation in service provision related to geography and age, but not socio economic status. This does not take into account stage at presentation, co morbidities or other clinically relevant factors (each of which could confound). Thus it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about treatment variation (and whether this has an impact on outcomes) without further analysis • These variations did not appear to relate to, or translate to need as measured by mortality or incidence. • The variations found may actually relate primarily to provider variation across West Yorkshire. • This analysis uses YHPHO Equity Audit from 2002. It is likely that variations in system performance (and possibly treatment used) have equalised over time – National Standards. • Wide range of factors relating to the performance of a cancer system not fully considered. prevention as well as other measures of treatment and service provision– e.g. primary care provision, staffing numbers, survival rates • The system performance measures will undoubtedly have changes (62 days / 2 weeks etc etc) – may be scope for updating some of this analysis. • Whether a huge focus in this area will acheive significant improvements in health outcomes (population wide or addressing the equality gap) should be seriously considered. The largest gain will come from industrial scale prevention and early diagnosis strategies. To contents Populations To contents We have a younger population than E&W Bradford England and Wales Under 16 23.4 20.2 16 to 19 5.6 4.9 20 to 29 13.4 12.6 30 to 59 38.7 41.5 60 to 74 12.2 13.3 75 and over 6.8 7.6 Average age 36.4 38.6 To contents Age profile of the population • Age is a significant factor in Cancer • Age Profile not equally spread through the district To contents We have a more ethnically diverse population than E&W. Update? Do we have more up to date info on Black pop – WYCSA getting some on new reg with GP by district and country of origin…GF sourcing this Percentage of resident population in ethnic groups: White Bradford England 78.3 90.9 0.7 1.3 Mixed 1.5 1.3 Asian or Asian British 18.9 4.6 Indian 2.7 2.1 Pakistani 14.5 1.4 Bangladeshi 1.1 0.6 Other Asian 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.1 Caribbean 0.6 1.1 African 0.2 1.0 Other Black 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 of which White Irish Black or Black British Chinese or Other Ethnic Group To contents Deprivation in Bradford by IMD 2004 Quintiles • Not strictly a risk factor, but a common measure of equality of outcomes • 43% of Bradford's population live in the most deprived 20% of areas in England. Meaning Bradford has more than double the expected proportion of people living in the most deprived areas compared to E&W. The age structure in the most deprived quintiles is significantly different This has a bearing on cancer making interpretation of data more complex. Bradford also has some of the most affluent areas across the country • • • • To contents New Entrants Country of Origin of new entrants registering with a GP (WYCSA 2007) 3500 2500 1970 2000 1761 1500 1229 1000 503 500 209 198 191 186 165 140 139 119 110 106 C er ni a O th q ua Li th Ira y G er m an r ria ig e N ia ig e N a hi n Ar ab ud i lic ub C Sa ze ch Re p La tv i a h ia es ad ng l Ba ia In d d la n ak Sl ov Po kis ta n 0 Pa number registering in 2007 3089 3000 • 10,100 new patients registering from overseas in Bradford. • NB treat data with suspicion until we know more!!!! • We know very little about this population. To contents Common risk factors to all Cancers. To contents Smoking - % Prevalence • Close correlation with deprivation • There is limited tobacco control data: – either implementation of tobacco control or – smoking cessation data below the level of the whole population (SHA return on smoking cessation) To contents Smoking – Adults. A more detailed consideration Analysis of smoking. Based on population and Smoking Cessation data Adults (15+) Registered in Bradford And Airedale 423,460 estimated 29% adults smoke. Significant variation. Socio economic and ethnic 122,803 66% want to stop - likely significant socio ecnomoc and ethnic variation 81,050 8382 people that accessed the smoking cessation service set a quit date, or 7 % of the adult smoking population 4282 successfully quit at 4 weeks, or 3 % of the adult smoking population many of the 4 week quitters will relapse. Contined effort needed. we have a comparitively high performing smoking cessation service Analysis by ethnicity estimated that 19% of Bradford population is Asian or Asian British (01 Census), or 80,457 people applying 29% to the Asian / Asian British population. Estimated number of smokers within this ethnic group 23,333 people 564 Asian or Asian British People set a quit date, or 2 % of the estimated adult Asian or Asian British population 266 of this group quit at 4 weeks, or 1 % of the estimated adult Asian or Asian British population more to do to encourage access of service by specific ethnic groups. To contents There is other data on smoking prevalence and quitting available through the QOF. Interpret it with care Smoking Prevalence (for those patients on a disease register). This tells us noting about patients not on a register. % of patients on a disease register that are smokers 70.00 60.00 50.00 y = 0.2005x + 11.045 R2 = 0.1487 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 Practice deprivation score. Proportion of patients (on a dis register) whose notes record they are a smoker that have been offered a referral to smoking cessation in last 15m 100.00 % offered smoking cessation 90.00 80.00 70.00 y = -0.0224x + 93.489 R2 = 0.0075 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 • Correlation between deprivation and smoking prevalence. • NB ONLY pt on a dis register. We don’t know about those that are not on a register. • No clear correlation between % offered referral and deprivation. All referring well. Practice Deprivation Score To contents Obesity - % prevalence. To contents Binge Drinking - % prevalence To contents Fruit and Veg - % of adult population consuming >5 portions per day. To contents Screening • Beverly – what Sc data do we have??? • To ADD! To contents All Cancers To contents DSR Mortality from All Cancers – All Cancers. PCT level • Remember we have a younger, but more deprived population overall. • This analysis is adjusted for age structure. • District level analysis might mask sub population effect. • Bradford is second most deprived district in YH. • Spearhead areas have stat signif higher prevalence To contents ra ve n M el to R n S ca utl a rb nd or o H ugh N ig ew h ar P e k a Te ak nd e s S da he le rw o M od an sf ie E R ld as ye tN da or le th am Bl a pt by A on m be shi H r re in V ck al le le y y A an l n d wi B ck o sw or D t N e or rb Bo h th y/ st E Bu on as r t L ton in co CN ln C sh al ire de rd a K le i rk l E ee re s w a S ou Sh sh th e f D fie er l d N bys or h th ire am O ad D pto by ar n an li ng t d H W on um ig be R sto ot r& he n Y rh or a ks Br m hi ad r Y e fo or C rd ks o hi We as re st t C & Li N H nd um s S ou be e y r th G N O or th Du R am rh am p B to er n s w W i c e a hi r ke up r V a o n- ll e T y E we as e tL d in d T se yn y e da le D er Yo C we r k as n tle tsid M e o W rpe a ns th be B ck ar ns le y R No L ed r ca th eed E r an as s d tG C O le R C vel he an st d er K fie in gs N Wa l d to or ke n th fi up T el on yn d H e si u d M ll, C e id dl i ty es o br f ou gh C How does Bradford compare. Incidence DSR incidence per 100,000. All Sites. 02 - 04. Persons. Local Authority 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 • Adjusted for age structure – ie DSR • PCT level analysis might mask sub population To contents effect. To contents Ru tla n Cr d av Aln en Oa wic db M k ya nd elto n W Ha igst o rb oro n ug h Bla by Hin So ck uth Selb ley Ke y Be ste a rw nd B ven ick -up osw on orth -T w R u eed Le s ics Ch hclif ,N f ar ort nw e ha o nts R y od & Ru edal e tla nd CN No H a Y or r th mb k let W es o t L Kett n e e De ices r ing rb t ys ersh h ire Ca ire stle Da le So Mor s uth pet So W Ho h uth el No lingb lland o rth am r oug p h S c t ons arb hir oro e Ma ugh n Ea sfie st Li n l d d Le sey Ea ice st Ri ste din r g o B os to fY Ea ork n st s h No Ge ir e rth dlin a So m p g to Ea uth D nsh ir st M id erby e sh D e l an ds ir e rb y/ GO Bu rto R Ha n CN r ro g All ate erd a No Tee le s r th d Ke ale ste ve B n A rox No mbe towe r th r Lin Valle co y lns hi r e D Mi d T er b ren y tC N E Hig den hP No r th ea E k Ea st rewa De sh rb ys hir W Car e es li t L sle ind s D a ey ve Ty ntry ne Co dale Ne R wa ichm pela n rk an ond d d S sh he ir e rw o Kir od Hu Yo k mb rks lees er hir & eC Y o Y or N rks ksh L hir ire inco e& C ln Hu oast mb CN er G Br OR ad fo Du rd C a r ha m ld No erd r th ale am pt o n No L r th ee Ea S h ds st Lin effie ld co Ch lnsh i es ter re W field ak Bly efie ld th Va ll A s ey h Ba field s No r th setla w Tr Re en dc Da t CN ar No and r ling r th Cle ton of En vela gla nd n St Wea d CN oc kto r Va lle ny on -T B o ees ls Ro ove th r De erh No r we am nt r th Ea side st W GO R an sb e Ba ck No rnsle ttin y S u gha m nd e Ga r lan t es d h Do ead nc Se aste dg r Ne efie wc ld as C tle up or by No on r Ty Ch th T yn ne es ter esi Kin d -le gs -S e ton tre E e up a on sing t to H Mi ull, C n dd it So lesb y of uth rou T y gh ne Ha side r tle po ol How does Bradford compare. Mortality Cancer Mortality All sites (02-04), per 100,000. Persons. Local Authority Level 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 • Adjusted for age structure – ie DSR • PCT level analysis might mask sub population To contents effect. DSR Mortality from all cancers is decreasing over time. YH rate is higher than national. Bradford district, likely higher than YH • Adjusted for age • In both sexes – higher prevalence in YH than in England. • Bradford will be no different, and most likely higher than YH (deprivation profile). To contents Cancer mortality. All sites. Old PCT. Trends over 9 years Crude Cancer Mortality Rate (all Cancers, all sites) / 100,000 registered population over 9 year period. 350.0 300.0 250.0 Airedale PCT Bradford City PCT North Bradford PCT Bradford South & West PCT Bradford Total 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1995 Crude Rate • • • • • 1996 Crude Rate 1997 Crude Rate 1998 Crude 1999 Crude 2000 Crude 2001 Crude 2002 Crude Rate Rate Rate Rate Rate 2003 Crude Rate 1995 - 2003 Crude Rate A relatively static trend in Cancer mortality (all sites) when analyzed by old PCT. NB these are crude rates, using 2003 registered population for all years (for simplicity). Not standardized for age structure (a significant confounder). Airedale has the oldest population – but is least deprived. City has the youngest population but is most deprived. Confidence intervals are not plotted here. It is likely there would be no statistically significant differences. 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Ca Prevalence at practice level. Raw prevalence. QOF 07 08 Cancer - Raw Prevalence. All sites. QOF 0708 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 820 cases, 92,341 registered population, 0.89% 1.2 Airedale CityCare Independent S&W YCPA 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Practice • This is the raw QOF Prevalence. • No account of age structure in practice populations • Many weaknesses in interpretation of this data. Many data quality issues. To contents Age standardising will probably not help. Data quality is too weak to support drawing any conclusions from a standardisation model. 0 - 44 45 - 64 >= 65 Reg Pop B code Observed no of diagnosed cases on practice register. QOF 0708 Raw Prevalence % Bradford and Airedale 345694 117954 70187 533835 4349 0.81 Total Airedale Alliance 54208 23076 15057 92341 820 0.89 Total City care Alliance 113689 21438 11084 146211 445 0.30 Total S&W Alliance 103463 39705 22855 166023 1432 0.86 Total YPCA Alliance 68488 30470 19009 117967 1531 1.30 5846 3265 2182 11293 121 1.07 Total Independent Alliance Airedale is oldest, least deprived. City youngest most deprived. To contents Lung Cancer Risk Factors Incidence Stage at Dx Treatment Survival Mortality To contents Risk Factors To contents Estimated prevalence of smoking. To contents NB – correlation with deprivation in Bradford by IMD 2004 Quintiles To contents Incidence To contents Incidence – national and WY • Falling Nationally. • Relatively static in WY. • Reflects historic trends in smoking prevalence and smoking cessation To contents Incidence at ‘old PCT’ level. • Unadjusted for age profile • No deprivation data. • Trends in incidence have an approximate correlation with deprivation profile of old PCTs. To contents Incidence and age • Principally prevalent >50yrs. • Much higher >75 yrs To contents Stage at diagnosis To contents No data!! YET!. More to be added here. LUCADA. • Well certainly not much high quality data that is ‘routinely available’ • NYCRIS view is that the q of the data in this area (particularly for Lung) is poor. – Either stage at Dx or presence of mets at Dx • Clini audit might get us a better answer, but labour intensive. • Clinicians gut feel for this issue – qualitative evidence. Worth adding in if there is a means to assess systematically. • LUCADA information might help elaborate this To contents further. Treatment for Lung Ca To contents Waiting Times – GP referral to diagnosis ‘old PCTs’. Lung • There is (was – this is old data) variation in waiting time to Dx for GP referred patients. • 2002. • A greater proportion referred quickly in N and S&W compared to Airedale and City. • Has this changed? To contents Waiting Times – GP referral to diagnosis. Deprivation Quintiles. Lung • Variation in waiting time to diagnosis for patients referred by their GP by deprivation quintile in 2002. • The most affluent quintile (46%) were most likely to wait less than 2 weeks from referral to diagnosis, • Little evidence of socio – economic gradient across all other groups. • 2002 Data. Has this changed. • All W Yorks To contents Waiting Times - diagnosis to treatment - ‘old PCTs’ . Lung • Similar variation in diagnosis to treatment. • 2002 data. • Has this changed? To contents Waiting Times - diagnosis to treatment. Deprivation quintiles. Lung • There is inequality in wait from Dx to Rx • In diagnosis to treatment times by deprivation quintile, 42% of the most affluent quintile waiting less than four weeks from diagnosis to first treatment compared with 29% in the most deprived quintile. • 2002 data. All W Yorkshire. Has this changed. To contents Treatment for Lung Cancer • • • In 2002, 51% of persons diagnosed with lung cancer received treatment for the disease, with males and females equally likely to have received similar treatment. There is a direct relationship between age and treatment, with 82% of persons aged under 50 and 34% of persons aged over 75 receiving treatment. Most treatment types reduced with age: persons aged under 50 were most likely to receive chemotherapy, and the group aged 50-74 were more likely to receive radiotherapy. To contents Geographic variation in treatment modalities. Lung • V few (4.9%) Bradford City receive surgery ?late presentation. • But not explained by deprivation alone – compare to S Leeds. • 5.9% Airedale patients receive RT To contents Treatment and Deprivation. Lung • The poor less likely to be treated. • When aggregated into deprivation quintiles, limited difference in actual treatment type. • Certainly – unlikely to be statistically significant. To contents Survival To contents Survival. Lung Cancer. PCT level Lung Cancer - Three year survival, persons. PCTs ranked by deprivation profile at LA level. Cases diagnosed between 1999 and 2003 16.0 14.0 y = -0.1424x + 10.318 R2 = 0.1449 Relative Survival (%) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 or ks rth Y No 5N V 5N W Ea st Ri di n g of Yo rk s hi r e hir ea nd 5E F Yo No rk rth Li n co lns hir e 5J 6C ald er da le 5N 2K irk l ee s 5N 1L ee ds 5H 8R oth erh am 5N 4S he ffie ld 5 5A N3 N W No ak rth efi led Ea st Lin co 5N lns Y hir Br e 5N ad 5D for da on ca nd s te Ai re r da le Te ac hi n g 5J E Ba rn s le 5N y X Hu ll T ea ch i ng 0.0 • Populations with greater deprivation have poorer observed 3y survival • Trend, but NOT stat significant – see CI • Simple analysis linking deprivation at PCT (matched LA boundaries – far from perfect) (IMD) with survival data from NYCRIS. • Also have 1 and 5y survival by PCT – similar pattern PCT - ranked by deprivation at LA level To contents 1 and 5 year survival by deprivation quintile • When analysed by deprivation quintile (NYCRIS area – large population), non significant relationship between deprivation and survival. • there was no significant difference in five-year survival between the deprivation groups. To contents Time trend in survival • Small but significant improvement in five-year survival over time, from 5.8% (95% CI 5.2% - 6.6%) in 1991 to 7.5% (95% CI 6.7% - 8.3%) in 1997. • Again, this improvement can be seen across all To contents deprivation quintiles. Mortality To contents Mortality • Consistent fall • ?slight leveling over recent years To contents How does Bradford compare? Incidence • Taken from NYCRIS data. • Age Standardized. 3 years data – statistically To contents robust. sh ire Ed en Ry ed ale W es tL ind se y Yo rk Ha rro No ga rth te am pto ns hir e So u th Ke tte ri n g Bla by De rb ys hir e Te Oa e sd db ale ya nd W igs to n Ru sh cli ffe Da ve ntr y Ha rb oro ug h Ru tl a nd Be rw W e lli Me lto n ng bo ro ick ug -up h on -T we So ed u th Ke s te ve n Cra ve n Hin Ha ck mb ley leto an n dB os wo rth Ea st Se No lby rth Ke s te ve Am n be rV all ey Bo s to n Sc arb oro De ug rb h y/ Bu rto nC N Ea st Lin ds ey So u th Aln No wic rth k am pto ns De hir rb e ys hir eD Le ale ics So ,N s u th ort ha Ho nts ll a nd & Ru tl a nd CN Ea st Ge dli ng Mid lan ds GO R Ch arn wo od No Bro rth x to Ea we st De rb ys hir e Yo rk Kir k le es Yo rk sh ire CN No rth Tre n tC & Hu N mb er GO R Sh e ff ield Ch Re es dc terf Hu ar ield mb an er dC & le v Yo ela rks nd hir eC oa st CN Ne wa Ca rk rlis an le dS he rw No oo rth d Lin co lns h ir e Hig hP Ca ea k s tl No eM rth o rp Ea e th st Lin co lns h ir e Bo lso ve r All erd ale No rth Ba ss W es e tl tL aw eic es ters hir e No rth am pto n Ere wa sh Co pe lan d Ty ne da le Mid Tre nt Ric CN hm on ds hir e Ea st Rid De ing rb y of Yo rks hir e Le ice s te r Ma ns fie ld Bra dfo rd Ro the rh am Da rlin gto n Ca lde rd ale Du rh am Lin co ln As hfi e ld Le ed s Co rb y De rw en ts id No e rth Ea st GO R Bly th Va ll e y No ttin gh am W ea rV Sto all ey ck ton -o n-T ee s Do nc as te r W No ak efi rth eld of En gla nd CN Kin gs Ba ton rn up s le on y Hu Ne ll, wc Cit as yo tl e f up on Ty ne Mid dle sb ro So ug u th h Ty ne s id No e rth Ty ne sid e Ha rtle po ol Ea s in gto n Ga tes he ad Se dg efi eld W an sb Ch ec es k terle-S tre et Su nd erl an d How does Bradford compare? Mortality DSR Lung Cancer Mortality (02-04). Persons. Local Authority Level. 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 • Taken from NYCRIS data. • Age Standardised. 3 years data – statistically To contents robust. Cancer mortality. All sites. Old PCT. Trends over 9 years Crude Cancer Mortality Rate (lung cancers) / 100,000 registered population over 9 year period. 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Airedale PCT Bradford City PCT North Bradford PCT Bradford South & West PCT Bradford Total 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1995 Crude Rate 1996 Crude Rate 1997 Crude Rate 1998 Crude Rate 1999 Crude Rate 2000 Crude Rate 2001 Crude Rate 2002 Crude Rate 2003 Crude Rate 1995 - 2003 Crude Rate • A relatively static trend in Lung Cancer mortality (all sites) when analyzed by old PCT. • NB these are crude rates, using 2003 registered population for all years (for simplicity). Not standardized for age structure (a significant confounder). Confidence intervals are not plotted here. It is likely there would be no statistically significant differences. To contents Mortality by geography – How does Bradford sub areas compare with W Yorkshire • Crude Rates – not standardised. YHPHO • Mortality rates for lung cancer by PCT for 19982002 (five year average). • Mortality rates showed similar variation for the period, and these appeared to relate closely to incidence in terms of individual PCTs. To contents Mortality (and incidence) for deprivation quintiles - WY. • incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer by quintile of socioeconomic deprivation for West Yorkshire for 1998 to 2002 (five year average). • These rates show a strong socio-economic gradient, with higher rates in the more deprived quintiles. To contents Commentary to add. • Mortality rates for males were significantly higher than females for each deprivation quintile. • The overall mortality rate for males was 75.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 74.4 - 75.8), and 38.3 for • females per 100,000 (95% CI 37.7 - 38.8). There were consistently higher mortality rates in • the most deprived areas for each age group, both for males and females. To contents Time trends in mortality - NYCRIS To contents Summary This section summarises the key issues, limited recommendations. Discussion with CLAN re exactly what next is needed. To contents Summary (1) – Risk Factors and populations • Significant variation across groups. Smoking and other risk factors. – Under implementation of preventive interventions – both in clinical practice and broader public health. – Not just smoking, though this is very important. – Opportunities for smoking cessation referral (especially at key life points – receptive to change. Cost effective and clinically effective) – How do we address the epidemiology of smoking. Industrializing tobacco control. Build into ALL care pathways. Critical life points as incentives to quit. Broader tobacco control. – Weight, diet, activity and alcohol consumption are also important risk factors. We don't do enough here – Implementation of preventive interventions should also be equitable. It does not seem to be now (eg smoking cessation) – Big potential for large population gain here – though long term. – CLAN (and lots of others) should champion this among clinicians of all flavours • Age and deprivation structures of populations are very important considerations. Airedale is affluent and old. City is deprived and young To contents Summary (2) – need. Incidence, survival and mortality. Need – incidence survival and mortality. • incidence and mortality rates (Lung) increased dramatically with age • There are important differences in cancer incidence, mortality (and survival in some cancers, but NOT lung) across socioeconomic groups. Work to reduce health inequalities in cancer needs to take these trends into account. • Much of the observed difference in mortality between deprivation categories (all cancers) is explained by lung cancer (inequalities in smoking?) • Mortality rates for lung cancer in men fell significantly over the decade from 1991 - 2000 for all deprivation categories. • In contrast, lung cancer mortality in women showed a small increase overall (significant differences in mortality by socio-economic group remained). – Change in the pattern of smoking prevalence over time? Men quitting more? • There is limited evidence of a survival gap between most / least deprived. If there is a socio economic gap, it is not statistically To contents significant. No ethnicity data. Summary (3) – Screening and early diagnosis. Staging • • • • • Little is known about stage at presentation for Lung (or others) A range of further analysis will be undertaken with the LUCADA audit dataset, possible links into other data sources. This is highlighted in the notes page below. – Likely to show socio economic difference in staging at presentation (or Dx) This leads to consideration of the implementation of a range of early Dx strategies – – Sx education – clinician and public. Culturally aware. Literacy. market and message segmentation; use of peers etc etc – earlier referral – might be warranted…….is there evidence that this will make the difference to survival or mortality rates………….not sure…..but certainly a need to key into the pilots mentioned in Ca Reform Strategy – are we one of them – Clinical culture - referral to exclude a diagnosis – Community diagnostics? Do we need to be smarter about how we route people to diagnostics quickly? How well do we make use of whatever screening monitoring data we can get to monitor equality of uptake. In cervical cancer, there is a large observed variation in screening coverage at practice level. Some population characteristics and some health care system characteristics are factors in this. This is an area NSC are currently activiely exploring. This needs to be carefully considered by CLAN To contents Summary (4) – service provision and system performance. Service Provision, treatment use and performance • analysis of service provision is difficult to interpret in terms of equity, as elements of service provision are affected by many factors Treatments • There is some evidence of variation in service provision related to geography and age, but not socio economic status. This does not take into account stage at presentation, co morbidities or other clinically relevant factors (each of which could confound). Thus it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about treatment variation (and whether this has an impact on outcomes) without further analysis • These variations did not appear to relate to, or translate to need as measured by mortality or incidence. • The variations found may actually relate primarily to provider variation across West Yorkshire. • This analysis uses YHPHO Equity Audit from 2002. It is likely that variations in system performance (and possibly treatment used) have equalised over time – National Standards. • Wide range of factors relating to the performance of a cancer system not fully considered. prevention as well as other measures of treatment and service provision– e.g. primary care provision, staffing numbers, survival rates • The system performance measures will undoubtedly have changes (62 days / 2 weeks etc etc) – may be scope for updating some of this analysis. • Whether a huge focus in this area will acheive significant improvements in health outcomes (population wide or addressing the equality gap) should be seriously considered. The largest gain will come from industrial scale prevention and early diagnosis strategies. To contents And finally.... Problems and issues • There are a number of dimensions of equality – disability, ethnicity that have not been considered. • Some of the data is old. • Indebted to NYCRIS and YHPHO from whom much of the data and analysis has been lifted! To contents