Conservation Coaches Network
Workshop Presentation
2A. Develop a Formal Action
Plan: Results Chains
Adaptive Management Workshop
Presentations
1A-1B. Team, Scope, Vision
1B. Conservation Targets
1B. Viability Assessment
2A-1. Strategy Selection
2A-2. Results Chains
2A-3. Goals and Objectives
1C. Threat Rating
1D. Conceptual Models
2B. Monitoring
Plan
Plan Your Actions &
Monitoring
Results
Chains
This Presentation
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Results
Chains
What is a Results Chain
How to Develop Results Chains
Examples
How Project Teams Have Used Results Chains
What is a Results Chain?
Results
Chains
A tool for documenting a team’s
“theory of change,” describing how a
strategy will lead to conservation
success
What is a Results Chain?
Results
Chains
A diagram of a series of “if…then” causal
statements that:
• Defines how a project team thinks a strategy will
contribute to reducing a threat or restoring a
target
• Focuses on the achievement of results – not the
execution of activities
• Is composed of assumptions that can be tested
Results Chains
Results
Chains
Implicit Assumptions:
Strategy
?
?
Conservation
target improved
What is a Results Chain?
Results
Chains
The Basic Components of a Results Chain:
Strategy
What is a Results Chain?
Results
Chains
The Basic Components of a Results Chain:
Strategy
Impact on
Target
Goal
What is a Results Chain?
Results
Chains
The Basic Components of a Results Chain:
Strategy
Result
Strategic
action
implemented
Result
(Direct Threat)
Objective
Objective
Contributing
factor
addressed or
opportunity
achieved
Direct
Threat
Objective
Achieved
Impact on
Target
Goal
Impact of
actions
achieved/
Viability
maintained
Why Results Chains?
Results
Chains
• Document assumptions
• Define how activities will contribute to
achieving results
• Formulate measures of success
Situation Analysis vs.
Results Chains
Results
Chains
Situation Analyses:
– Shows the situation today  helps us to
illuminate points of intervention and identify
strategies
Results Chains:
– Starts with selected strategies  and helps to
illuminate the assumptions leading to the
desired results
Achieving Success
Results
Chains
SUCCESS!
Accurate
Results Chain
used to
design
Well executed
project
leads to
used to
design
Well executed
project
does not
lead to
Desired results
used to
design
Poorly
executed
project
does not
lead to
Desired results
used to
design
Poorly
executed
project
does not
lead to
Desired results
Desired results
THEORY FAILURE
Inaccurate
Results Chain
PROGRAM FAILURE
Accurate
Results Chain
TOTAL FAILURE!!!
Inaccurate
Results Chain
What Happens When We
Make False Assumptions?
Results
Chains
Training Fly Fishing Guides in Bocas del Toro, Panama
Underlying Project
Assumptions
Results
Chains
The project team assumed:
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If we train local fishermen as fly fishing guides and we give them fly
fishing gear, then they will have the skills and gear to be guides
If they have the skills and gear, then they will work as fly fishing
guides
If they are able to work as fly fishing guides, then they will increase
their income
If they have increased income, they will not need to fish so much
and there will be less unsustainable fishing practices
If there are less unsustainable fishing practices, then the coral reef
ecosystem will be more conserved.
Train Local
Fishermen as
Fly Fishing
Guides
Local Fishermen
Have Skills &
Gear to Be
Guides
X
Local
Fishermen
Work as
Guides
Increased
income
Unsustainable
Fishing
Reduced
Coral Reef
Ecosystem
Underlying Project
Assumptions
Results
Chains
What else did the fishermen need to become fly fishing
guides?
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Clients – tourists and tourism operators needed to know about the
fly fishing guides
English speaking skills
Etc.
Train Local
Fishermen as
Fly Fishing
Guides
Tourists & tour
operators
know about
guides
Local Fishermen
Have Skills &
Gear to Be
Guides
Tourists
hire guides
X
Local
Fishermen
Work as
Guides
Increased
income
Unsustainable
Fishing
Reduced
Coral Reef
Ecosystem
This Presentation
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Results
Chains
What is a Results Chain
How to Develop Results Chains
Examples
How Project Teams Have Used Results Chains
One Way to Develop
a Results Chain
Results
Chains
1. Construct an initial results chain
2. Complete the links in the results chain
3. Verify that your results chain meets criteria of a
good results chain
4. Add activities to show how your specific
actions (activities) will contribute to achieving
your results
Our Example –
Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands
Adapted from WWF Australia’s WeltlandsWatch Project
Results
Chains
A Chain From the Model
Allows You to…
Results
Chains
A Chain From the Model
Allows You to…
In Miradi, select the
direct threat, rightclick & select “Create
Results Chain”
Results
Chains
1. Construct an Initial
Results Chain
Results
Chains
2. Complete the Links
in the Results Chain
Spread out initial results:
Results
Chains
2. Complete the Links
in the Results Chain
Results
Chains
2. Complete the Links
in the Results Chain
Results
Chains
2. Complete the Links
in the Results Chain
Results
Chains
3. Review the Criteria for
Good Results Chains
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Results
Chains
Results oriented: Boxes contain desired results (e.g.,
reduction of hunting), and not activities (e.g., conduct a
study).
Connected in a “causal” manner: There are clear
connections of “if…then” between each pair of successive
boxes.
3. Review the Criteria for
Good Results Chains
•
Results
Chains
Demonstrates change: Each box describes how
you hope the relevant factor will change (e.g.,
improve, increase, or decrease).
3. Review the Criteria for
Good Results Chains
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Results
Chains
Relatively complete: There are sufficient boxes
to construct logical connections but not so many
that the chain becomes overly complex.
Simple: There is only one result per box.
4. Add Activities
Results
Chains
Activity: A specific action or set of tasks
undertaken by project staff and/or partners to
reach one or more objectives.
Define activities to accomplish your strategy and
add them onto the results chain
4. Add Activities
Results
Chains
Activities in Miradi
Select this to show
main activities on
the results chain
Results
Chains
If you have a lot of activities,
don’t clutter the results chain
with all of them. Keep some
hidden.
Other Ways to Develop
a Results Chain
Results
Chains
Steps:
1)Place strategy, target and threat reduction result
2)Build the chain, either:
• Right to left, defining what needs to be done to
reduce the threat
• Left to right, defining desired results of the
strategy
• Brainstorming results and then linking them (as
in this example)
Promote
development of
legal instruments
for grassland
protection
No new
agricultural
expansion in
grasslands
Desert
Grassland
ecosystems
maintained
Other Ways to Develop
a Results Chain
Promote
development of
legal instruments
for grassland
protection
Land use change
petitions in critical
grasslands
refused
New water
concessions in
grasslands
refused
No new
agricultural
expansion in
grasslands
Results
Chains
Desert
Grassland
ecosystems
maintained
Other Ways to Develop
a Results Chain
Promote
development of
legal instruments
for grassland
protection
Government
recognizes
importance of
grasslands & need for
revising regulations
Stricter criteria
developed for
grassland mgmt
& protection
Land use change
petitions in critical
grasslands
refused
New water
concessions in
grasslands
refused
No new
agricultural
expansion in
grasslands
Results
Chains
Desert
Grassland
ecosystems
maintained
Other Ways to Develop
a Results Chain
Promote
development of
legal instruments
for grassland
protection
Government
recognizes
importance of
grasslands & need for
revising regulations
Stricter criteria
developed for
grassland mgmt
& protection
Land use change
petitions in critical
grasslands
refused
Enforcement of
refused petitions
New water
concessions in
grasslands
refused
Enforcement of
refused water
concessions
No new
agricultural
expansion in
grasslands
Results
Chains
Desert
Grassland
ecosystems
maintained
What is NOT a
Results Chain?
It is not an implementation flow diagram…
Results chains focus on
the achievement of results
not the implementation of activities
Results
Chains
Your Turn: Which of the
Following is NOT a
Results Chain?
A.
Lobbying of
government for
stronger
regulations
Identify key
decision
makers
Educate
decision
makers
Decision
makers pass
laws
Increased
yields
B.
C.
Promotion of
sustainable
agriculture
Community
capacity building
for forest resource
management
Farmers implement
sustainable
agriculture methods
Greater
indigenous
knowledge
about rights
More
permanent
crops
More control
of & vigilance
over external
actors
Results
Chains
Research &
develop
regulations
Increased
permanence
of agricultural
occupation
More illegal
wood
confiscated
No wildlife
trade
Less
conversion of
forest to
agriculture
Less illegal
selective logging
in indigenous
communities
Jaguar
populations
increased
Coastal
forests
conserved
Miombo
woodland
conserved
Primary
forest
conserved
This Presentation
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Results
Chains
What is a Results Chain
How to Develop Results Chains
Examples
How Project Teams Have Used Results Chains
Your Turn:
Add the Missing Result
Promotion of
certified timber
harvesting
Loggers
knowledgeable
about
certification
Loggers view
certified
market as
profitable
?
Results
Chains
More
sustainable
harvesting of
timber
Montane
forest
diversity
maintained
Your Turn: Add the Missing Result
Promotion of
certified timber
harvesting
Loggers
knowledgeable
about
certification
Loggers view
certified
market as
profitable
Loggers use
certified
harvesting
methods
More
sustainable
harvesting of
timber
Montane
forest
diversity
maintained
Your Turn: Create a Results
Chain Using the Following
Results
Results
Chains
Citizens eradicate invasive plants
Healthy native wetland vegetation
Citizens have skills to eradicate invasive plants
Train citizens to eradicate invasive plants
Citizens knowledgeable of local invasive plants
Invasive plants decreased
Result 1a
Result 2
Strategy
Result 1b
Direct Threat
Result (3)
Target
Impact
(Result 4)
Your Turn: Create a Results
Chain Using the Following
Results
Results
Chains
Citizens eradicate invasive plants
Healthy native wetland vegetation
Citizens have skills to eradicate invasive plants
Citizens knowledgeable of local invasive plants
Invasive plants decreased
Result 1a
Train citizens to
eradicate
invasive plants
Result 2
Result 1b
Direct Threat
Result (3)
Target
Impact
(Result 4)
Your Turn: Create a Results
Chain Using the Following
Results
Results
Chains
Citizens eradicate invasive plants
Healthy native wetland vegetation
Invasive plants decreased
Train citizens to
eradicate
invasive plants
Citizens
knowledgeable
of local invasive
plants
Result 2
Citizens have
skills to
eradicate
invasive plants
Direct Threat
Result (3)
Target
Impact
(Result 4)
Your Turn: Create a Results
Chain Using the Following
Results
Results
Chains
Healthy native wetland vegetation
Invasive plants decreased
Train citizens to
eradicate
invasive plants
Citizens
knowledgeable
of local invasive
plants
Citizens have
skills to
eradicate
invasive plants
Citizens
eradicate
invasive
plants
Direct Threat
Result (3)
Target
Impact
(Result 4)
Your Turn: Create a Results
Chain Using the Following
Results
Train citizens to
eradicate
invasive plants
Citizens
knowledgeable
of local invasive
plants
Citizens have
skills to
eradicate
invasive plants
Citizens
eradicate
invasive
plants
Invasive
plants
decreased
Results
Chains
Healthy
native
wetland
vegetation
This Presentation
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What is a Results Chain
How to Develop Results Chains
Examples
How Project Teams Have Used Results
Chains
Results
Chains
How Teams Have Used
Results Chains
Results
Chains
• To discuss and refine their theories of change
• To be realistic about the time required to
achieve results
• To recognize when NOT to implement a strategy
Refine Theories of
Change
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Higher quality
brazil nut
Results
Chains
Higher
income
?
Less
conversion of
forest to ag
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Brazil nut
forest
conserved
Refine Theories of
Change
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Higher quality
brazil nut
Results
Chains
Higher
income
Local people
committed to
forest mgmt
Less
conversion of
forest to ag
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Brazil nut
forest
conserved
Refine Theories of
Change
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Higher quality
brazil nut
Higher
quality of life
Results
Chains
Higher
income
Greater
recognition of
forest’s
economic value
Local people
committed to
forest mgmt
Less
conversion of
forest to ag
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Brazil nut
forest
conserved
Refine Theories of
Change
More people
buy cattle (as
savings)
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Higher quality
brazil nut
More
conversion of
forest to
pasture
Results
Chains
Less Brazil
Nut Forest
Higher
income
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Refine Theories of
Change
More
conversion of
forest to
pasture
More people
buy cattle (as
savings)
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Higher quality
brazil nut
Higher
quality of life
Results
Chains
Less Brazil
Nut Forest
Higher
income
Greater
recognition of
forest’s
economic value
Local people
committed to
forest mgmt
Less
conversion of
forest to ag
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Brazil nut
forest
conserved
Be Realistic About Time
Required to Achieve
Results
Objective 2010
Objective 2007
Brazil nut
mgmt plan
Mgmt plans
implemented
Results
Chains
Higher quality
brazil nut
Higher
quality of life
Higher
income
Greater
recognition of
forest’s
economic value
Objective 2012
Objective 2012
Local people
committed to
forest mgmt
Less
conversion of
forest to ag
Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)
Goal 2014
Brazil nut
forest
conserved
Recognizing When NOT
To Implement a Strategy
Results
Chains
Should we invest in sustainable agriculture?
Increased
yields
Pilot model of
sustainable
agriculture
Model widely
implemented
by gov’t
Promote
marketable cash
crops
More
permanent
crops
Increased
income
Increased
permanence
of agric
occupation
Less
Conversion
of Forest to
Agriculture
Farmer will
not convert
more land
Coastal
Forests
Miombo
Woodland
Adapted from Eastern African Coastal Forests Ecoregion (EACFE)
Key Points
Results
Chains
• Results oriented, but activities can help the flow
• The “If-then” logic must stand up
• Make your assumptions & the actor’s incentives explicit
• Alternative pathways are OK
• Peer review is critical