Changing Climates for
Adaptation
BONNIE J. MCCAY
FATE OF THE EARTH: ENVIRONMENT AND
HUMAN WELL-BEING
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
APRIL3, 2014
General Lessons
 Wicked problems…

Rittel & Webber 1973
 Muddling through
strategically

 Governance of complex
systems should be
“polycentric” (Ostrom) and
“interactive” (Kooiman)
 Beyond panaceas

E. Ostrom 2007
 Act boldly, risk failure

AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand)
 But be adaptive

Holling; Gunderson et al.
Chas. Lindblom
 [Participate] Early and Often

A. Capone?
 Once they have seen gay
Paree

Cultural inertia and resistance
 You can’t go home again;

Path dependency;
irreversibility. ITQs
 Horse is out of the barn

[Too little, too late].
Acidification
trends in marine fisheries management
Market-based
Ecosystem-based
 Commodity-focused
 Multiple-species
 Exclusive and
 Regime shifts
tradeable withdrawal
or use rights
 Efficiencies
 Concentration
 Incentives for userfunded research
 Protected areas
 Hard choices
 Multi-stakeholder
 Scale issues
 Spatial planning
Shifting paradigms
Climate change: Fates & consequences for the
earth’s oceans
 Warmer sea temperatures
 Changes in stratification,
upwelling, etc.
 Glacier Melting and
Reduction of sea ice
 Acidification
 Exploitation pressure




Harvesting
Dredging
Dumping
Introducing alien species
 Changes in living
communities: plankton,
benthos, pelagics
 Changes in ecologically
productive and sensitive
habitats: coral reefs, grass
beds, kelp forests,
submarine canyons and
mtns; etc.
 Effects on coastal places—
sea level rise, storm surges,
salinization…
 DIMINISHED
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES &
ELEVATED DANGERS
Hurricane Sandy from space, Oct. 2012
And then comes the sea
“Comedies of the Commons”
 People as problem-
solvers as well as
problem-creators
 People as social beings,
trying to deal with and
correct what seems out of
kilter.
 “The drama of humans
as social rather than
private beings, a drama
of social actions having a
frankly corrective
purpose.” (M.E. Smith, 1984;
McCay and Acheson 1987).
“The Commons”
 Framework for thought and action
 “tragedy of the commons” –open access, profit-
seeking, little communication or governance.
 “romances/comedies of the commons” –governance,
communication, boundaries of various kinds, efforts
to manage for present benefit and sustainable
futures.
 Objectifications: Leviathan, Hidden Hand, Noble
Savage….versus more complex unfoldings, social and
ecological processes, unexpected outcomes (Boonstra &
Heung 2011)
Four stories
 Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the
commons and/or regime shifts
 New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the
commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and
climate change
 Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of
the commons, community-based control and comanagement. Marine reserves and resilience.
 Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification:
surprise, adaptive responses.
“Tragedy of the Northern Cod”
 Fishery closed June
1992.
Plot of a tragedy….
 Late 1980s, small-scale
 Contexts: collapse and
fishers petitioned for
study, review
 Government scientists
found errors in stock
assessments
 Fishery continued
nonetheless
 Official disaster 1992
privatization of
corporate, industrial
fisheries
 Inaccuracies, analytic
problems with data
 “We’re all to blame”
 Scope and scale of fish
stocks versus
‘communities”
Responses after the cod collapse. Emergence of a
more complicated plot


Leave fisheries (especially for shale oil and mining in western
Canada); rural depopulation
Diversify into crustacean fisheries (crab and shrimp), more
capital-intensive; more precautionary, exclusive management.
Variable water temperatures; quest for stability,
with vested interests and political commitments
Eco-Certification:
commitments to
sustainable fisheries
through MSC
US Northeast: Responses to Climate Change
 Fisheries followed the
fish….but only 10-30% as
much.
 Economic & regulatory
constraints
 Effects on fish stocks of
lagged human
responses?
 Incorporation into fish
stock assessment and
management?
Pinsky & Fogarty 2012; McCay 2013
Source: Nye et al. 2009
Surf Clam
Case
 Decline in southern




portion of clam
distribution
Some industry shift
north but…
50% of landings from
two ten minute squares,
tho’ decline in catch rates
Opening of northern
clam beds despite PSP
risks, 2013
Industry resists scientific
& regulatory changes;
ITQs & global
competition
Surfclam case study
Local-level & nested commons
management: a Mexican case
FISHING COOPERATIVES
OF THE VIZCAINO PENINSULA,
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus)
a. Lobster
2,000
$40,000,000
1,500
$30,000,000
1,000
$20,000,000
500
0
$10,000,000
income (US Dollars)
$50,000,000
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
catch (t) (live weight)
2,500
Baja Calif. Linkages…
Z o n a P acífico N o rte, Á reas C o n cesio n ad as a cad a C o o p erativa
2 9 .0 0
2 8 .8 0
2 8 .6 0
P escadores N acionales de Abulón
2 8 .4 0
2 8 .2 0
2 8 .0 0
La P urísim a
2 7 .8 0
Buzos y P escadores
2 7 .6 0
Bahía Tortugas
2 7 .4 0
Em ancipación
2 7 .2 0
2 7 .0 0
California de San Ignacio
Pr ogr eso
2 6 .8 0
Leyes de Reform a
2 6 .6 0
Punta Abreojos
2 6 .4 0
2 6 .2 0
-1 1 6 .0 0
-1 1 5 .6 0
-1 1 5 .2 0
-1 1 4 .8 0
-1 1 4 .4 0
-1 1 4 .0 0
-1 1 3 .6 0
-1 1 3 .2 0
Successful Local-Level “Commons”
Management:
 Being benthic: close scale
 clarity of social and
match between scale of the
coop fisheries and biology
of the major species
 & the productivity,
visibility and legibility of
the resources and fisheries
involved;
 Strong commitment to
enforcement and
democratic decisionmaking
territorial boundaries;
 adjacency and linkages
among territorial units;
federation
 tight embeddedness of the
cooperatives and fisheries
within communities.
(isolation, dependency)
 McCay et al. 2013 (Marine
Policy)
Coupling and “negative feedback”—
Fishery cooperatives of BCS, Mexico
 Threats of severe loss through closures
 “Co-management” arrangements with government
agencies
 “Self-management” internal rules for lobster &
abalone
 Nested “governance” systems, supported by larger
political, legal, social systems, linked to larger
marine conservation community, globalized
markets, and consumers (scales)
Experimental marine reserves:
Isla Natividad
Managing for resilience: the Marine Protected
Area experiment
 2010 the Coop established




experimental closed areas
for abalone reef
management, with help of
NGOs & scientists.
Improved lobster &
abalone.
Local monitoring
Anoxic event 2012, die-off
of abalone.
Commitment to marine
reserve strategy
Responses to Acidification: the West Coast
Oyster Case
Whiskey Creek Hatchery,
Oregon
Responses
 2007-08 die-off
 Research,
 CO2; carbonate less
experimentation
 Change in practices in
hatcheries
available, esp. upwelling
water
 Industry lobby; funds for
research; Monitoring
systems; increase
carbonate levels; Lummi
use saltwater pond
What to do?
 Tall orders
 national, international,
and regional authorities
 Global, regional, ‘large
marine ecosystem’ scales
 ENGO and governmentled programs: coral
triangle; MPA networks;
Marine spatial planning;
high seas fisheries; dealing
with IUU; Ecocertification;….
 Short orders
 Local and communityoriented
 Small scale enterprises
 Traditional & experiencebased knowledge
 partnerships for
“commons” science &
management
 Place-based TURFs and
MPAs
 Community-supported
fisheries
Linkages
 Vertical : “Co-
management” & nested
governance



Local group/ outsiders
(NGOs, scientists)/
government authority
Shared decision-making,
authority, responsibility
Large- and small-scale
fisheries
 Horizontal: networks



Ex.: Too Big to Ignore
network (Canada);
2nd World Small-Scale
Fisheries Congress 21-25
Sept. 2014, Merida, MX
World Ocean Council
 Eco-certification
programs

Marine Stewardship
Council
Four stories
 Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons




and/or regime shifts;
New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the
commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and sea
temperature change
Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the
commons, community-based control and comanagement. Marine reserves and resilience in face of
ocean changes.
Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification:
surprise, adaptive responses.
>>all beg the question of ecosystem-based management
Ecosystem-Based Management & Adaptive
Governance
 Challenge---large spatial
scope, more complex
subject: Centralized
decision-making for
multi-disciplinary
expertise, knowledge
accumulation and
analysis, interagency
coordination
 But also more
Decentralized and
Participatory across
multiple scales, to
monitor and capture
detailed knowledge
about ecological &
social processes across
local to global scales
 Wilson 2009
General Lessons
 It’s wicked…

Rittel & Webber 1973
 Governance of complex
systems should be
“polycentric” (Ostrom) and
“interactive” (Kooiman)
 You can’t go home again;

Path dependency;
irreversibility. ITQs
 Horse is out of the barn

[Too little, too late].
Acidification
 Beyond panaceas

E. Ostrom 2007
 Act boldly, risk failure

AO Hirschman (The Hidden
Hand)
 But be adaptive

Holling; Gunderson et al.
 Muddling through vs.
Strategic Planning

Chas. Lindblom
 [Participate] Early and Often

A. Capone?
 Once they have seen gay
Paree

Cultural inertia and resistance
Thank you
Questions?