GSA’s 125th Anniversary
Annual Meeting & Expo
Pardee Keynote Symposium
P12: Resourcing Future
Generations
27-30 Oct 2013, Denver USA
Resources and supply-demand over
the very long term
Damien Giurco, Steve Mohr – Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney
Gavin Mudd – Department of Civil Engineering , Monash University, Melbourne
Where
will resources come from,
to enable healthy societies,
in this century?
i) Availability
ii) Addiction
iii) Alternatives
Mason et al. (2011)
Journal of Cleaner Production
Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster [2009-2013]
Dr Gavin Mudd
Monash
Dr Steve Mohr
ISF, UTS
How should Australia utilize its mineral resources
to underpin
long term
benefit?
Damien Giurco
Institute For Sustainable
Futures
4
Starting a national conversation on mineral futures…
Vision 2040 – Key Themes
1. A National Minerals Strategy
& National Mineral (Sustainability) Account
2. Transformational innovation & remediation
3. Brand Australia: responsible minerals
4. Building long-term benefit for Australia:
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Where
will resources come from,
to enable healthy societies,
in this century?
Spectrum of approaches to mineral availability
after Tilton (2002)
Opportunity
Cost Paradigm
resource scarcity..
…higher prices/ lower demand
…new technologies - lower grades
…more resources
Fixed Stock
Paradigm
N.B. space, time ,
metals recyclable,
availability requires access
fixed stock of minerals
rising population / demand
eventually we’ll run out…or
…social costs high and can’t
access what’s there
Spectrum of approaches to mineral availability
after Tilton (2002)
Opportunity
Cost Paradigm
resource scarcity..
…higher prices/ lower demand
…new technologies - lower grades
…more resources
Nauru:
economic
reserves
depleted
Fixed Stock
Paradigm
N.B. space, time ,
metals recyclable,
availability requires access
fixed stock of minerals
rising population / demand
eventually we’ll run out…or
…social costs high and can’t
access what’s there
Trends in economic resources (Australia, Canada)
60
Black Coal (Gt)
Brown Coal (Gt)
Iron Ore (Gt)
Bauxite (Gt)
Copper (Mt)
Gold (kt)
Nickel (Mt)
30
Lead (Mt)
Zinc (Mt)
Uranium (Mt
(Mt U3O8)
35
Aust
Canada
1.6
0.6
1.4
Uranium (Mt U3O8)
1.2
25
Economic Resources
Economic Resources
40
0.7
30
20
0.5
1
20
0.4
Copper (Mt Cu)
0.8
Zinc (Mt Zn)
15
10
0.3
0.6
Lead (Mt Pb)
0.4
0.2
10
0.2
Nickel (Mt Ni)
5
0
1920
1930
Mudd, 2009 & other data
1940
1950
0
1975
0.1
Gold (kt Au)
1960
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
0
1985
1995
2005
Economic
Resources
(U only)
Economic
Resources
(U only)
50
1.8
Annual national
production (t)
Peak minerals metaphor:
cheaper & easier to complex & costly
lower costs*
higher ore grades
shallower mines
simple ores
low mine waste
*costs are social, economic,
environmental
higher costs*
lower ore grades
deeper mines
complex /refractory ores
more mine waste
Lifetime of
resource production
year of
peak annual production
time
Source: adapted from Giurco et al. (2010) Peak minerals in Australia, Report 1.2
Energy intensity of mining up 50% in Australia
Total change in energy
consumption
Production increase
Real intensity effect
Source: Sandu & Syed, (2008) Trends in Energy Intensity in Australian Industry
Cheaper & easier
more complex & expensive
28
Copper Ore & Waste Rock (Mt)
160
24
Ore Grade %Cu
20
Waste
rock up
16
12
8
Copper ore
grades down
4
1850
1900
1950
2007
Data: G. Mudd
Approaches to long term modelling
Not all production = smooth curve
Gold
Australia
Copper
Australia
Gold
Canada
Copper
Canada
(Mudd and Ward 2008).
Geologic Resources SupplyDemand Model GeRS-DeMo
http://datasearch.uts.edu.au/isf/news-events/news-detail.cfm?ItemId=29302
Or Google: GeRS-DeMo
Overall approach
- mine by mine
bottom up model
- based on URR
for individual
countries,
typical mine sizes,
possible operating
patterns
- number of mines
is not fixed
Modelling resources [GeRS-DeMo]
> Production for minerals is fundamentally
different to oil and gas
– modelled differently.
Typical mine
Typical oil/gas field
Mining model – additional features
> A more realistic mine does the following:
‒ It can upgrade its production capacity
‒ It can shut down and
restart later (due to economic conditions)
Expansion
Shutdown
Restart
Modelling production
> Model allows for mines to increase in size over
time (commodity & region specific calibration)
– Number of mines that will operate is not set
Overall demand = intensity x population
per capita
demand
population
Continued population growth…..or……
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 1820
Est.
Medium
estimate
used
1900
1950
UN Hi
UN Med.
2000
2050
UN Lo
2100
Actual
Coal: peak global production within a decade
URR = 976 Gt
Est.
Max
Peak
Prodn
Year
(Gt/y)
Africa
2039
0.4
Asia
2016
4.7
Australia
2060
1.1
Europe
1973
0.6
Fmr Sov Union
2202
1.4
North America
2065
1.7
South America
2029
0.2
Total
2017
7.6
Region
Mohr et al. (2013) Coal, Cluster Report 1.7
See also Mohr & Evans. (2009) Fuel for other scenarios with URR 700-1243Gt
Supply/Demand Mt/y Iron ore
Iron ore – production by country
4000
URR = 278.8 Gt
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
Africa
Asia
Europe
Middle_East
North_America
South_America
2050
FSU
2075
2100
Iron ore – top fifteen countries
Supply/Demand Mt/y Iron ore
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1875
FSU
USA
Guinea
1900
1925 1950
Australia
India
Canada
1975
2000 2025
Brazil
Cameroon
Congo
2050
2075
China
Nigeria
Sweden
2100
Copper production: historical and projected
URR=2096 Mt
Northey et al. (2013) Resources, Conservation & Recycling
Historical growth 1.6% p.a. cannot be supported
Modelled production (Mt Cu)
100
75
50
25
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Historical growth 1.6% p.a. cannot be supported
100
Modelled production (Mt Cu)
Ayres 2003…..requires 3000 Mt URR
75
50
25
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
URR sensitivity analysis for global copper
Northey et al. (2013) Resources, Conservation & Recycling
Lithium historical production (rock and brines)
Mohr, Mudd, Giurco (2012) Minerals
Lithium production projections by mineral
URR ~ 24 Mt
URR ~ 24 Mt
Other URR scenarios 19-55Mt
Mohr, Mudd, Giurco (2012) Minerals
Lithium production projections by region
URR ~ 24 Mt
Other URR scenarios 19-55Mt
Mohr, Mudd, Giurco (2012) Minerals
Lithium production projections, lower demand
Car
life 12 yr
(not 10 yr)
URR ~ 24 Mt
Mohr, Mudd, Giurco (2012) Minerals
Mining below and above ground
Resourcing future generations will require the study of urban ores
Identifying issues and opportunities
Availability
Coal
Addiction
Alternatives
Uncertainty
CARBON
CAPTURE
Identifying issues and opportunities
Availability
Coal
Iron
Addiction
Alternatives
Uncertainty
CARBON
CAPTURE
$
Identifying issues and opportunities
Availability
Alternatives
Uncertainty
CARBON
CAPTURE
Coal
$
Iron
Copper
Addiction
%Cu
DEEP
SEA
Identifying issues and opportunities
Availability
Uncertainty
$
Iron
Lithium
Alternatives
CARBON
CAPTURE
Coal
Copper
Addiction
%Cu
DEEP
SEA
> Build a vision for resources
in future generations
‒ Efficiency; behaviour; sustainability accounts
> Production projections [GeRS-DeMo]
‒ Robust country / mine model
‒ time series & geographical insights
‒ engages policymakers, public, industry
‒ Future development
‒ data for all commodities; demand; recycling
‒ add environmental impact profile
The next generation is critical……
Contact details
Associate Professor Damien Giurco
Research Director
Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS
Level 11, 235 Jones St Ultimo, NSW 2007
Tel: +61 2 9514 4978
Damien.Giurco@uts.edu.au
www.isf.uts.edu.au
Publications
Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster (Reports)
www.csiro.au/partnerships/mineral-futures-collaboration-cluster.html
Journal articles from web bios (Steve Mohr, Gavin Mudd, Damien Giurco)
Acknowledgements
CSIRO Minerals Down Under Flagship
UTS: Tim Prior, Reza Memary, Aleta Lederwasch, Leah Mason, Daniel May
Monash: Zehan Weng, Mohan Yellishetty , Steve Northey