Syria and Chemical Weapons:
Building a World Free of WMD
Paul F. Walker, Ph.D.
Director, Security & Sustainability
Green Cross International
Washington DC, USA
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia
October 16, 2013
1
Alleged CW Use in Syria
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July 23, 2012 – Syria
confirms CW
December 23 – Homs
attack, 7 killed
March 19, 2013 –
Aleppo & Damascus
March 24 – Adra
April 13 – Aleppo
April 29 – Saraqeb
Syria’s CWC Accession
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August 21, 2013 – Large
scale CW attack in
Ghouta region. 1,400+
killed, including 400
children.
September 14 – Syria
accedes to CWC
October 14 – CWC enters
into force for Syria as
190th State Party
3
World War I

Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some
90,000 killed
4
Chemical Weapons Threats
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Iran-Iraq War
Iraq attack on Halabja
in 1988
1991 Gulf War
1995 Tokyo subway
attack
Ongoing terrorist
threats of WMD
Syria 2012-2013
5
8 Declared CW Stockpiles
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Russia
40,000 metric tons
USA
28,600 metric tons
India
1,000+ metric tons (est)
South Korea 1,000+ metric tons (est)
Libya
26+ metric tons
Albania
16 metric tons
Iraq
na
Syria
1,000 metric tons (est)
TOTAL
72,500 +/- metric tons
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Declared U.S. CW Stockpile: 31,495 US tons
(9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll)
Umatilla Chemical Agent
Disposal Facility
Hermiston, Oregon (12%)
Newport Chemical Depot
Newport, Indiana (4%)
Tooele Chemical Agent
Tooele Chemical
Agent
Disposal
Facility
Disposal Facility
Tooele, Utah (44%)
Tooele, Utah (44%)
Newport Chemical Agent
Disposal Facility
Newport, Indiana (4%)
Aberdeen Chemical Agent
Disposal Facility
Edgewood, Maryland (5%)
Pueblo Chemical Depot
Pueblo, Colorado (8%)
Pueblo Chemical Depot
Pueblo, Colorado (8%)
Johnston Atoll
Chemical Agent
Disposal System
South Pacific (6%)
Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal
Facility
Bluff
Chemical
Agent Disposal
PinePine
Bluff,
Arkansas
(12%)
Facility
Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%)
Blue Grass Army Depot
Richmond, Kentucky (2%)
Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal
Facility
Anniston, Alabama (7%)
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Declared R.F. CW Stockpile: 40,000 tons
(7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic)
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Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons
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Shchuch’ye Stockpile
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Chemical Weapons Convention
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Entered into force in
1997
190 States Parties
CW stockpiles
destroyed by 2012
Inspection of
commercial industry
Five-year RevCons
2003, 2008, & 2013
11
CW Destruction in US
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1990 – present
25,650 MT destroyed
(90%)
7 stockpiles closed
$25 billion+ spent to
date
10 more years to go
2 facilities under
construction
12
CW Destruction in Russia
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2002 – present
30,400 MT destroyed
(76%)
2 stockpiles
neutralized
$7+ billion spent to
date
3-6+ years to go
13
Other CWD Progress
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Albania – 16 MT destroyed
(100%) 2007
South Korea – 1,000+ MT
destroyed (100%) 2008
India – 1,000+ MT
destroyed (100%) 2009
Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed
(88%) (excl. Sched. 2)
Iraq – Declared 2009
Syria – Declared 2013
14
Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013)
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Gorny neutralized Dec02-Dec05 – 1,143 MT
Kambarka neutralized Dec05-Apr09 – 6,349 MT
Maradikovsky neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since
Sept 06 (6,890 MT total)
Leonidovka neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since
2008 (6,885 MT total)
Shchuch’ye neutralized 4,350 MT (80%) since
March 2009 (5,456 MT total)
Pochep neutralized 4,500 MT (60%) since
November 2010 (7,498 MT)
Kizner to open late 2013 (5,745 MT)
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US CW Demil (Feb 2012)
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Johnston Atoll – 1990-2000, 100% destroyed
Tooele – 1996-2012, 100% destroyed
Anniston – 2003-2011, 100% destroyed
Aberdeen – 2003-2005, 100% destroyed
Umatilla – 2004-2011, 100% destroyed
Pine Bluff – 2005-2011, 100% destroyed
Newport – 2005-2008, 100% neutralized
Pueblo – 2014-2017, 0% (2,520 tons)
Blue Grass – 2018-2021, 0% (523 tons)
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Challenge #1 – Cost
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US cost first estimated
at $2B
Now approaching $40B
RF cost first estimated at
$3-4B
Now estimated at $10B+
Not including nonstockpile & sea-dumped
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Challenge #2 – Technology
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High temperature
incineration or low
temperature
neutralization
Management of effluent
toxic wastes
Impacts on public
health & environment
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Challenge #3 –
Emergency Preparedness
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Most communities feel
ill-prepared
Gas masks, plastic &
duct tape distributed
for “shelter in place”
Early warning radios
and sirens lacking
Transportation for
evacuation
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Challenge #4 – Community
Investment and Involvement
20
Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast
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Challenge #5 – Transparency
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Green Cross Outreach Office
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Proactive outreach to
local & regional
constituencies
Reactive response to all
inquiries
Facilitation of
stakeholder involvement
Empowerment of local
communities
23
Community Outreach
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Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines
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CWC stockpile destruction deadlines:
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April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF)
April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs)
April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs)
April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs)
April 2012 – 5-year extension (15 yrs)
No possessor State Party has met all
deadlines
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CWC Deadlines (cont.)
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United States
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Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines
Met 3-yr extended 45% deadline (2007)
Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012
Russian Federation
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Met 3-yr extended 1% and 5-yr extended 20%
deadlines
Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to
December 2009
Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012
26
CWC Deadlines (cont.)
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Albania – Did not request 100% extended
deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months
India – Met 100% deadline extension to
April 2009 (2 yr extension)
South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension
to December 2008 (20-mo ext)
Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions
to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec.
2016
27
Challenge #7 –
Congressional Deadline
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Congress has mandated December 2017 as final
deadline for completing CWD
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD
is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for
weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens
when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate
resources behind a program… This is absurd,
especially with DOD's own admission that with
higher funding levels they could complete
destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than
that.” (25 Feb 08)
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What’s to be Done?
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Emphasis must be placed on the critical
importance of State Parties to fully fund and
implement their ongoing chemical weapons
destruction programs –
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US – $400-500M+/yr for construction
US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50M+/yr
for CWD
RF – $1B+/yr for CW destruction
G-8 Global Partnership – $100M+/yr
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What’s to be Done?
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Don’t underestimate public concerns and
political power – be transparent and involve
stakeholders – preclude legal suits
Recognize inherent tension between cost,
schedule, transparency, & safety – protection
of public health & environment
Improve US-RF relations and move beyond
recent G-8 Global Partnership differences
30
What’s to be Done?
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Promote full CWC
universality
Six countries
 Angola
 Egypt
 Israel
 Myanmar
(Burma)
 North Korea
 South Sudan
31
The Challenge of Syria
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OPCW to inspect and
inventory Syrian
declaration
All weapons, agents,
production & lab
facilities destroyed
Full security & safety
guaranteed for
inspectors & workers
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The Challenge of Syria
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What does Syria’s CW
stockpile consist of?
What destruction
technologies are best?
Can the chemicals,
agents, and weapons be
moved?
How much will this all
cost?
33
Buried Chemical Weapons
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Spring Valley, Washington DC
35
Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons
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UN Resolution on SDCW
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Notes the importance of raising public
awareness of the environmental effects…
Invites Member States…to cooperate and
voluntarily share relevant information…
Invites the Secretary-General to seek the
views of Member States and relevant
regional and international organizations at
68th UN General Assembly in 2013…
37
WMDFZ in the Middle East
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Syria’s CWC accession
provides incentive for
Israel & Egypt to join
Also encourages all to
join BWC
And begin to address
nuclear weapons in the
Mideast – Israel & Iran
38
Green Cross International
1100 15th Street, NW
Suite 1100
Washington, DC 20005, USA
+1-202-222-0700 tel
www.gcint.org
www.globalgreen.org
pwalker@globalgreen.org
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