California Labor Federation
Member Research
Conducted August-September, 2014
Vote Likelihood
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Chances of Voting, By Sample
Much lower percentage of ‘infrequent voters’ saying they will definitely vote.
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
Probably
14%
50-50
18%
Probably
not
7%
Definitely
86%
Probably
30%
Definitely
45%
In November of this year, there will be a general election in California in which voters will choose candidates for Governor, Congress, state legislature, and to decide some other contests. What are the
chances that you will vote in that election? Will you definitely vote, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote?
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Likelihood of Voting, Frequent vs. Infrequent
MUCH lower likelihood of voting among the infrequent voters, with about half as many saying they
will ‘definitely’ vote this November.
Likelihood of Voting… 10 ‘definitely vote’
1-5
Frequent
Infrequent
6-8
9
5 7 8
26
From focus groups:
10
Most frequent voters had heard at least
some information about November.
80
24
7
43
Infrequent voters could rarely name a
single contest on the ballot this
November, having heard almost nothing
about the November election. Many
admitted to skipping elections – or at
least specific races – if they did not have
enough information about the election.
How likely are you to vote this November on a scale of one to ten where one means you will definitely not vote, ten means you will definitely vote no matter what, and 5 means you are fifty-fifty?
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Ethnicity, Frequent vs. Infrequent
Majority of frequent voters are White, whereas nearly two-thirds of infrequent voters are non-White.
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
% Self-Reported Ethnicity
56
White or Caucasian
Mixed Race
Filipino
Other Asian or Pacific Islander
Native American
Chinese
Vietnamese
Prefer not to say
35
37
White or Caucasian
25
Latino, Hispanic, or Mexican
African American
% Self-Reported Ethnicity
Latino, Hispanic, or Mexican
6
3
2
2
2
1
1
2
12
African American
Mixed Race
Filipino
Other Asian or Pacific Islander
Native American
Chinese
Vietnamese
Prefer not to say
4
4
3
1
2
1
1
For this research study, we are seeking to talk to a representative group of Californians. Which of the following ethnic groups describes you? You can stop me when I’ve read your group. / IF
PRIOR QUESTION = NOT LATINO. And are you of Hispanic or Latino descent?
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Governor’s Race
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Gubernatorial preference
Brown holds commanding initial lead among both frequent and infrequent voters
Brown
Kashkari
67
Undecided
75
53% Certain
28
48% Certain
19
20% Certain
10% Certain
5
Frequent Voters
6
Infrequent Voters
First…. If the Election for Governor of California were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) Governor of California Jerry Brown, a Democra OR Businessman Neel Kashkari, a Republican
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Superintendent of Public Instruction
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Superintendent of Public Instruction
Plurality are undecided in the Superintendent’s race.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Torlakson
Tuck
Undecided
47
42
37
20% Certain
35
23
12% Certain
16
10% Certain
9% Certain
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
Next… If the Election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) Educator and California Superintendent Tom Torlakson
OR Educator and Schools’ Executive Marshall Tuck For whom would you vote?
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Ballot Measures and Controller
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State controller Preference
Yee fares well, with larger lead among infrequent voters.
State Controller
Yee
Swearengin
Undecided
50
45
29
27% Certain
26
24
26
23% Certain
15% Certain
15% Certain
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
Next… If the Election for State Controller were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) California State Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee OR Mayor and CEO Ashley Swearengin, a
Republican
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Secretary of State Preference
A majority of frequent voters choose Padilla over Peterson. Padilla’s lead is larger among
infrequent voters.
Secretary of State
Padilla
Peterson
Undecided
62
53
34% Certain
31
19% Certain
36% Certain
16
25
13% Certain
Frequent Voters
13
Infrequent Voters
Next… If the election for Secretary of State were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE.) California State Senator Alex Padilla, a Democrat OR Educator and Institute Director Pete Peterson, a
Republican… For whom would you vote?
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Proposition 1 Preference
Strong support for the water bond, with 43% of frequent and 51% of infrequent voters certain to
vote yes.
Prop 1: Water Bond
Yes
No
Undecided
82
72
51% Certain
43% Certain
19
11% Certain
11
5% Certain
9
Frequent Voters
7
Infrequent Voters
In addition to electing candidates for office this November, California voters will also decide on some ballot measures. I’m now going to read the official title and summary for Proposition 1.
Proposition 1 would authorize $11.14 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects such as surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and
restoration, Bay-Delta Estuary sustainability, drinking water protection, water recycling and advanced water treatment technology, water supply management and conveyance, drought relief, wastewater
treatment, emergency water supplies and public water system improvements. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?
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Proposition 47 Preference
Nearly three-fifths support Prop 47 among frequent voters, with nearly two-thirds supportive among
infrequent voters.
Prop 47: Criminal Sentencing Reform
Yes
No
Undecided
65
59
35% Certain
27% Certain
24
23
17
12% Certain
12% Certain
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
12
Next, I’m going to read the official title and summary for Proposition 47. Proposition 47 is titled “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.” It requires misdemeanor sentence instead of
felony for certain drug possession offenses. It requires misdemeanor sentence instead of felony for the following crimes when amount involved is $950 or less: petty theft, receiving stolen property, and
forging/writing bad checks. It allows felony sentence for these offenses if person has previous conviction for crimes such as rape, murder, or child molestation or is registered sex offender. It requires
resentencing for persons serving felony sentences for these offenses unless court finds unreasonable public safety risk. It applies savings to mental health and drug treatment programs, K–12 schools, and
crime victims. The fiscal impact summary by the Legislative Analyst estimates: Net state criminal justice system savings that could reach the low hundreds of millions of dollars annually. These savings would
be spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. Net county criminal justice system savings that could reach several hundred million
dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?
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Most Interesting Races
Governor’s race is the most interesting race overall, followed by the two ballot measures tested –
the water bond and criminal sentencing reform.
Governor
Most Interesting Race (Of Those Tested)
Prop 1
Prop 47
Other Races*
Other/None
51
*Other: Includes Controller,
Secretary of State and
Superintendent
39
25
24
26
17
5
7
2
Frequent Voters
Infrequent Voters
Thinking about the races I just asked about, which of the following is most interesting to you?
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4
Infrequent Voters: Impact on Voting of Races
Governor’s race, Prop 1, and Prop 47 all cause infrequent voters to say they are more likely to vote
this November. Among Latino voters, Prop 47 stood out.
More Likely to Vote Because of…
(Multiple Reponses Accepted)
47
Governor
41
Proposition 1, the water bond
38
Proposition 47, criminal sentencing reform
Secretary of State
22
Superintendent
21
Focus Group Comments on Prop 47:
“This will make more difference that
the Governor’s race.” (Infrequent Voter,
Sacramento)
19
Controller
Yes, all of them
49% among Latinos
4
None / Not More Likely to Vote
“If this is handles right, it could be
great.” (Infrequent voter, Fresno)
8
Prefer not to say 2
Thinking about the races I just asked about, do any of the races make you more likely to vote this November? IF YES: Which contest makes you more likely to vote? You can say more than one… Is it…
[ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSE
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Turnout Messaging
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Qualitative Findings on GOTV-Targeted Messaging
•
Latino voters expressed a strong community focus
in speaking about the best reasons to turn out to
vote.
o
“I want Hispanics to get a better position “
(Frequent Voter, Latino, Los Angeles)
“There are a lot of Hispanic immigrants in
this country. I’m a Democrat, but just
because someone is a Democrat or has a
Hispanic last name doesn’t mean they’ll
help us.” (Infrequent voter, Latino, Fresno)
This sentiment, however, doesn’t necessarily
translate to support or enthusiasm for
Democrats, as many Latinos expressed
frustration with both parties.
“I pay attention to the news on how many people are
being incarcerated. Prison is a huge business. The huge
companies who get the contracts to build and maintain
prisons will probably be working against [Prop 47].”
(African American man, Sacramento)
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•
Many voters of color – particularly men –
were intrigued by Proposition 47, with
many aware of prison overcrowding
problems, and the influence of the private
prison lobby.
Partisan Messaging
Making your voice heard for the working people of the state
is strongest message out of the partisan group tested.
Infrequent
Frequent
% Very Convincing Reason to Vote
[SEAT AT TABLE] The working people of this
state—whether they’re cops or teachers,
bricklayers or farm workers—need a seat at
the table if they’re going to be able to put
food on the table for their kids. We need to
vote to make sure our voices are heard.
57
66
Now I’m going to read some statements that some people make about why it’s important to vote this November. For each I read, please tell me if the statement is a very convincing reason to vote this
November, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not at all convincing reason to vote this November. [RANDOMIZE]
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